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Saturday, 27 July 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 28th)

A really poor start to the week with some poor luck afflicting the selections was a bit of a blow, but a strong Saturday has turned things around and put the Tennis Picks in a position to return another profitable week on the Tour.

All three selections made on Saturday returned winners and on Sunday we conclude the tournaments played with all of the Finals scheduled to be completed. On Monday the Tour moves further into the US Open Hard Court Series with stops in Washington and San Jose, while there is one more clay court event to go for those who like to take in the red dirt between Wimbledon and the final Grand Slam of the season being played.


My focus in this thread is from the Final being played in Hamburg. Any selection from Atlanta will be made on Sunday once the two Semi Final matches and market for the Final have been formulated, while I have also updated the totals from this week below.


Andrey Rublev v Nikoloz Basilashvili: There has not been a player that has been able to defend the Hamburg title since 2005 when Roger Federer was able to do that before the tournament lost its status as a Masters event. That run might come to an end on Sunday when Nikoloz Basilashvili looks to defend the title he won twelve months ago.

The Georgian was able to beat home favourite Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final, although Basilashvili needed a final set tie-breaker to overcome his opponent. In fact Basilashvili was arguably the inferior player on the day, but he was able to win the big points much more effectively than Zverev who had 12 more break points on the day, but both players were able to earn four breaks of serve each.

This week we have seen Nikoloz Basilashvili produce much better numbers than he has been able to generate on the clay courts throughout his career. The serve has been important for Basilashvili who has won 64% of points played behind serve and held 83% of the service games, but it is the performance on the big points against the serve which have proved to be key for him.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has broken in 31% of return games played this week, but it will be a test to get the better out Andrey Rublev who is another player that has perhaps produced the best possible clay court tennis he can. The youngster has won 66% of the points he has played behind serve and backed that up with 41% of return points also being won and I think I am giving him the slight edge in this match, although the layers are of the same opinion too.

It could be argued that Rublev has not been as strong on the big points as Basilashvili considering he has held in 79% of service games and broken in 29% of return games compared with the 83% and 31% numbers in the same category his opponent has managed. Those are numbers that surprise considering Rublev is winning a higher percentage of points on both the serve and return.

I could say Basilashvili may also hold a slight mental edge having beaten Andrey Rublev on the hard courts in the very first week of the 2019 season. Both are off emotional wins in the Semi Final, but I think Andrey Rublev might be in a better place mentally having pulled away from Pablo Carreno Busta compared with Basilashvili needing a final set tie-breaker to get into the Final.

This Final could be a good one and I won't be surprised if we need to see three sets to determine a winner. However my edge is with Andrey Rublev as he perhaps sees Nikoloz Basilasvili fade following his Semi Final win which lasted over three hours on Saturday and I will back the young Russian to win his second career title at the main ATP level.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-7, + 3.32 Units (34 Units Staked, + 9.76% Yield)

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