Boxing Picks 2020- Oleksandr Usyk vs Dereck Chisora (October 31st)

This is going to be anything but a normal Halloween for families in the Western World, but there is a real 'Fright Night' in prospect for Boxing fans.

A 'Monster' is going to head out to the ring in the early hours of the morning in the United Kingdom, but before that we get Dereck Chisora trying to give new Heavyweight Oleksandr Usyk a scare.

The biggest fight of the night may actually be the Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz bout scheduled in the United States, but this looks a good night of Boxing and one in which I am planning to do nothing but grab a few beers and enjoy all of the action.

Lee Selby vs George Kambosos Jr

This may be on a PPV show, but the undercard for the Oleksandr Usyk-Dereck Chisora fight is perhaps not the most appealing.

I would love to see the Women start moving into three minute Rounds to add to the excitement, but the Savannah Marshall-Hannah Rankin bout should be a decent one. Ultimately the two minute Rounds feel like they end the action just as things are warming up and effectively these combat spots grow by showcasing power and precision and I am sure the extra twelve minutes in the Championship fights would grow the sport.

It should be a decent if unspectacular undercard, but the main support bout looks a good one.

Both Lee Selby and George Kambosos Jr will be looking to take on the new king Teofimo Lopez as the winner will move into a mandatory spot to take on the American next year. I am not sure the winner will ever get that shot against Lopez, but what I do know is that they will be on the brink of a World Title shot and that is going to be a huge motivation for both.

Lee Selby has been there and done that before at a lower weight level, but George Kambosos Jr as made it clear he is desperate to reach that level. The unbeaten Australian is quite tough and rough and I do think that is going to pose problems for Selby who is the superior Boxer.

A couple of years ago I do think Lee Selby would have won this fight and fairly comfortably on the scorecards, but at 33 years old you do have to wonder how much is left in the tank. Ricky Burns pushed Selby all the way when those two veterans met a little over twelve months ago and I do wonder if the Welshman has the same kind of resolve left in him these days.

He was looking a little fatigued and allowed Burns to come on strong in that fight, but George Kambosos Jr is younger and fresher and I don't think the Aussie is going to lose heart even if he is outclassed in the early Rounds. Eventually he will force Selby to stand down and fight and that is where Kambosos Jr can begin to break down a fighter that may have seen his best days.

I am not going to read too much into the sparring stories which seem to be giving George Kambosos Jr a little more belief in his ability to 'retire' Lee Selby. However I do think his all action style is one that may be too much for Selby at this stage of his career and I am not sure he has the punching power to keep Kambosos Jr off and make him feel like he can't take chances to land his own hits.

This is clearly a step up from his previous opponents, but George Kambosos Jr looks ready to make the next step here. Lee Selby will be tested and I think his resolve is going to be pushed as he struggles to keep Kambosos Jr off him and it may see some late punches force a stoppage.

The most likely scenario is that we hear the final bell, but I do think there is enough here to look at the possibility of George Kambosos Jr finding the stoppage as he breaks Lee Selby down through the second half of the fight. The Australian has shown his punching power and ability to grind down opponents is still live very late and I do think Selby might be on his way out rather than having realistic ambitions of winning another World Title.

I could be wrong, but a small interest on the late stoppage is the call.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Dereck Chisora

This fight is going to tell us everything we have wanted to know about Oleksandr Usyk ever since he collected all of the Cruiserweight World Titles and then decided he would move up to Heavyweight to try and become a World Champion in the glamour Division of Boxing.

It has been just under two years since Usyk fought on these shores and stopped Tony Bellew in his final bout at Cruiserweight, but injuries and the global pandemic crisis have meant he has only been in the ring once since then. That came in a comfortable win over Chazz Witherspoon twelve months ago in his Heavyweight debut, but most expect this to be a much tougher test for the Ukrainian.

Dereck Chisora has once again rebuilt his career and he claims he is in the form of his life having won three in a row since his stoppage defeat to rival Dillian Whyte. Even in that fight Chisora was ahead on the cards when caught with a peach of a punch in the Eleventh Round and this is a fighter who will muscle through the opposition fists to land his own.

He has been stopped three times before, but Chisora has been hit with a monster punch in two of those and the question for Oleksandr Usyk is does he have the punching power to at least give the biggest men something to think about. The Ukrainian is taller and has a longer reach and there is no doubting his skills in the ring, but his compatriot and friend Vasyl Lomachenko was reminded of what happens when you bite off too much and move up to a weight where a good/great bigger man is too much to overcome.

There has been one or two moments when Oleksandr Usyk has been rocked by a massive punch at Cruiserweight, and that may be a concern, but I also don't believe Chisora is this monster puncher that his team may think he is. Every Heavyweight hits very big, but I am not sure Usyk is going to be where Chisora thinks and I feel this is going to be a frustrating evening for the home fighter who will really miss the presence of fans to push him forward.

You can't get in the water and not get wet so I don't think Usyk is not going to be hit, but I think his skills will wear on Chisora and I also think he hits hard enough. My feeling is that he is going to step on the gas after getting through the early Rounds and he is looking to make a statement here by stopping a fighter that only Tyson Fury, David Haye and Whyte have managed to do in the past.

It is the wear that is likely going to do for Chisora who may begin to ship enough punishment for either the referee or the corner to call this off. Without the adrenaline from the fans I do think this fight is going to begin to feel very hard for Chisora once we get into the second half and that is where the superior skills and enough pop out of the Usyk gloves will begin to take their toll.

This has the feeling of a last chance saloon for Chisora if he wants to fight for a World Title again and that may see him push through the moments to try and land the big shot. Even if he is well down on the cards Dereck Chisora will have to show mental strength to keep rising from the stool and take the punishment to try and dish his own, but eventually I expect either the referee or the corner to take pity on their man and pull him out when in a losing battle.

There is a steely determination in the Oleksandr Usyk eyes which makes me believe he is not going to want to coast down the stretch and I think he is going to land the combinations to force a halt to this one somewhere around the Tenth Round.

Naoya Inoue vs Jason Moloney

The Halloween movie usually ends with the main, big, bad monster being vanquished, but I think it would be a massive upset if the 'Monster' Naoya Inoue is beaten on the spookiest night.

Funny things could happen and the injuries suffered in the win over Nonito Donaire coupled with the Covid-19 crisis means it has been a long time since Inoue last entered the ring. Not many Boxers have been used to this kind of layoff between fights, but Inoue might benefit from being able to get fully healthy and he will continue on his path to superstardom in his second fight in the United States in his career.

Having won the World Boxing Super Series Bantamweight tournament with some very impressive performances, Naoya Inoue looks to have been handed a good chance to impress those watching on this Saturday.

That is not taking anything away from Jason Moloney- the tough Australian suffered his sole career loss in the same Bantamweight tournament to Emmanuel Rodriguez, although Moloney was very unfortunate to be beaten having rallied in the second half of the fight. 

Jason Moloney has won four in a row since that defeat and he was also in action in June so has to try and use that to his advantage. Pressing Inoue and hoping to find some ring rust is a risky strategy with the power that the Japanese fighter has in both hands and I do think it is going to be very difficult for Moloney to hold him at bay.

Much depends on the toughness of Jason Moloney, which is not of doubt, but also how quickly Naoya Inoue finds his range. Some will be looking for a blow out win for the pound for pound star, but I think Moloney does enough to at least keep Inoue at bay through the first half of the fight before the accumulation of big hits begin to wear him down and break him down.

It won't be a massive surprise to see Moloney on the floor relatively early, and Inoue is a top finisher, but I am going for the rugged Australian to get through a few Rounds before the referee is eventually forced to call time on the bout.

Monsters may not win in the movies, but on this Halloween night I believe a Monster will showcase his talent to the watching public with a big time performance and win.

Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz

All credit to Channel Five in the United Kingdom for picking up the Showtime card from the United States as Gervonta Davis gets set to take on Leo Santa Cruz in a PPV outing in Texas.

Fans over here will know Leo Santa Cruz for two battles with Carl Frampton, but coming up in weight and at 32 years old is a tough spot for him. He is going up against a big puncher and one who has shown he carries power late into fights.

Match making is an important part of the Boxing business and this does feel like a good match up for Tank Davis who is looking to become the next big PPV star in the United States. He is exciting to watch, although there is always a fear of waiting for the next Floyd Mayweather when he begins to take the Adrian Broner approach to life.

So far Gervonta Davis has not been punished in the ring and I do think Santa Cruz has been picked for his name value but also little real threat to the favourite. The Boxing skills can't be ignored, but there have been signs that Leo Santa Cruz is not the fighter he once was and coming up in weight to take on a heavy hitter is not ideal.

The Mexican has spoken about his heart and making this a war, but I would be surprised if Santa Cruz decides to stand and trade with Davis. He has won five in a row which maintains his value, but Santa Cruz doesn't really have the power to trouble Gervonta Davis and I think that just sees the American begin to walk through fire to land his heavy shots.

I do think Leo Santa Cruz will want to show some resilience and he may be able to outwork Davis early, but eventually the pressure will tell and the home fighter can turn the screw. I think some late punishment is going to force someone to take Santa Cruz out of the fight, even if he won't want to stop it himself.

Leo Santa Cruz has not been down often in his career, but he has not really faced someone who possesses the power Gervonta Davis has either. The latter will be the bigger man on Saturday night and he should be able to power through in the second half of the fight and break down Leo Santa Cruz for a good looking win.

MY PICKS: George Kambosos Jr to Win Between 7-12 @ 10.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naoya Inoue to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Gervonta Davis to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

College Football Week 9 Picks 2020 (October 30-31)

Week 9 of the College Football 2020 season has sneaked up on me and after a positive Week 8 to bounce back from the horrific Week 7 means there is some momentum behind the Picks.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: The Big Ten Conference finally got underway in the 2020 season in Week 8, but that does mean there is some uncertainty about the teams taking part and how prepared they are for the coming year. You can read too much into one result but the Purdue Boilermakers have to be respected for the manner of their win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, although I would not be overly concerned about the Illinois Fighting Illini's loss to the Wisconsin Badgers.

That was against a motivated Divisional rival who had been beaten by the Fighting Illini in 2019 and I do expect a reaction from Illinois who have a number of experienced players back from last season.

Lovie Smith was saved by a number of his players in 2019 and he would likely have not been the Head Coach in 2020 if Illinois had not finished with a 6-6 record in the regular season. Bowl Games preparation would have helped and I do think the Fighting Illini will be able to show a lot more, especially in the home opener.

There will have been a week of adjustments that Illinois would have to get through but I think the Offensive Line will show better against the Boilermakers Defensive Line than they were able to do against Wisconsin. However, the Fighting Illini were able to run the ball with some effectiveness and it was only because the game got out of hand that Illinois had to change tact, but that is not expected to be the case in Week 9.

Last week the Boilermakers gave up almost 200 yards on the ground and I do think Illinois can have successes in this one which will give their Defensive unit a chance to rest unlike in their last game. Penalties have to be avoided to make sure Illinois stay in front of the chains, especially as Illinois did not have almost any success throwing the ball.

Purdue have to be well aware of what Illinois are going to try and do and they also have revenge on their mind having been upset as big home favourites against this opponent last season. Head Coach Jeff Brohm missed the win over the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 8, but he will be back patrolling the sidelines on Saturday as he looks to inspire his team to a 2-0 start.

Rondale Moore is less likely to be available despite his decision to return to the Football team as soon as it was announced that a Big Ten season would be played. You have to credit Moore for reversing his decision, but he has been injured and instead the focus for the Illinois Secondary may be on David Bell who was the main Purdue Receiving threat in Week 8 when taking it to the Hawkeyes.

It may fall on the passing game to move the chains for the Boilermakers if Illinois' Defensive Line are as stout against the run as they were against Wisconsin. They may have given up 182 yards on the ground in that loss, but those came on 54 carries for the Badgers and Purdue did struggle to push the ball on the ground last week which makes it feel like a game in which they passing game is going to be key.

As good as the Fighting Illini Defensive Line played, the Secondary allowed some big plays to an inexperienced Quarter Back Wisconsin sent out to the field on the opening weekend of Big Ten Football. They can get some pressure up front, but it is unlikely that Illinois will shut down the pass and that is the reason the Boilermakers are favourites.

Even then this feels like a big number for the road team to cover even if the lack of fans is going to have a serious impact on College Football as it has on many sports around the world. I think the Fighting Illini can run the ball well enough to at least control the clock and I do think they are going to have a big reaction to the poor loss in Week 8 when beaten comprehensively by the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Boilermakers are 3-7-1 against the spread in their last eleven games as the road favourite, but they do have a decent record in recent games against Illinois. However I do like the Fighting Illini here with their 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I think getting more than 7 points is important in what feels like could be a close game.

Indiana Hoosiers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: Two teams who are coming off upsets in the Big Ten on the opening weekend of the season for the Conference are meeting in Week 9. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have struggled in recent seasons, but gave incoming Head Coach Greg Schiano the perfect start to his second go around with the team.

Schiano did a really good job with Rutgers before moving on and his return along with the road win over the Michigan State Spartans will have given the team a huge boost.

Now they are a home underdog against the Indiana Hoosiers who upset the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 8 with an Overtime win by a single point. The Hoosiers finished fourth in the Big Ten East last season but they did win eight games in the season and Tom Allen is looking for more this time around having won that game with Penn State.

Much is going to depend on how the Hoosiers have handled the emotion of beating the Nittany Lions and they are going to have to be at their best if Rutgers Defense plays anywhere near the level of last week. Of course the Michigan State Offense is not as strong as the one Indiana will be trotting out to the field and the experience the Hoosiers have on the Offensive side of the ball has to be respected.

Indiana may have struggled against a much vaunted Penn State Defensive unit, but Michael Penix Jr and the other players returning from last season should have more success in this one. However it may not be easy to run the ball against the Rutgers Defensive Line and that will mean it is up to Penix Jr at Quarter Back to make the plays and keep the chains moving.

He has to be aware of the kind of turnovers Rutgers were able to create last week though and it is important for Michael Penix Jr to play as clean a game as is possible. If he does that Indiana should have success in this one, although the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the kind of pressure the Scarlet Knights were able to generate up front in their first game.

Turnovers really helped the Rutgers Offense in Week 8 of the season and I think this is a much bigger test for them even though they should have a little bit of success running the ball against the Indiana Defensive Line. Noah Vedral could be a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position and he will need to be as wary as Michael Penix Jr when throwing the ball against an Indiana team that was very good at turning the ball over in their opening game.

He will at least give Rutgers the chance to establish the run and at least help his team stay competitive in this one which makes the points being given to the underdog look appealing.

This is not a great spot for Indiana having upset Penn State and with Michigan, Michigan State and then Ohio State coming up. There is every chance they could overlook the Scarlet Knights who have long been the whipping boys of the Big Ten and the emotion of the upset win over the Nittany Lions could have a detrimental impact on the favourites here.

Indiana are 0-8 against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite and you do have to wonder if they can cope with this spot. The Scarlet Knights will be motivated to make up for the 35-0 embarrassing defeat to this Conference rival last season, while they have been more competitive in their last two home losses to Indiana which have been decided by 7 and 6 points respectively.

Taking the points here looks to be the right play.

LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Win this game and you may have an outside chance of chasing down the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC West, but the two Tigers from the Division know another loss will be difficult to chalk off. While Ed Orgeron has some real credit in the bank with LSU having guided them to a National Championship earlier in the year, Gus Malzahn could be under pressure with the Auburn Tigers at the end of what has been a poor season to date.

Running the table is all Malzahn will be looking to do with the Auburn Tigers and they did manage to beat Mississippi Rebels in Week 8 to move to 3-2 in the Conference. A couple of plays here and there could easily have given this set of Tigers a better record, but also a much worse one and there is pressure on the entire team.

They are facing a LSU Tigers team who had an unexpected two week break due to Covid-19 and one that came out of their Bye Week with a victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks. It was an impressive win and perhaps even more so when you think LSU were missing Quarter Back Myles Brennan and had to give inexperienced TJ Finley the chance to start.

The youngster took advantage of his opportunity having thrown for 265 passing yards with two Touchdown passes and a single Interception. That saw Ed Orgeron praising the performance of TJ Finley, although the Head Coach admitted that Brennan remains the starter when he is healthy.

That does not look like happening this week for Myles Brennan and it may be more difficult for TJ Finley against the Auburn Secondary which has played with a bit more confidence of late. They have held their last three teams on average to a little over 200 passing yards and that number has been aided by a strong performance from the Defensive Line which has at least found a way to force teams to grind things out on the ground.

A key for Auburn is going to be to try and rattle TJ Finley into mistakes, although the young Quarter Back should be well protected by his Offensive Line. That will keep the pocket clean enough to make plays and I do think LSU will have some success having scored over 50 points in their win over South Carolina in Week 8.

Quarter Back questions are not only something that the LSU Tigers have to answer as Auburn continue to be asked about Bo Nix and whether there needs to be a change made at the position. Some key plays at big moments from Nix eased the pressure after he led Auburn to a late win over the Mississippi Rebels, but this is a different level of test this week and Bo Nix has been inconsistent at best.

A couple of key players on the Offensive Line may also be missing for Auburn, but even then it is essential for the Tigers to stay in front of the chains. They have been running the ball very well this season through Tank Bigsby and it is important for Gus Malzahn to ensure his team feed the Running Back as much as possible.

There has been room to run on the LSU Defensive Line and I think that is important for Auburn here to control the clock and find some balance Offensively which will also make things a little more comfortable for Bo Nix. The LSU pass rush would be slowed down if Auburn are running the ball efficiently and it will also mean Bo Nix has time to make throws against a LSU Secondary which is not playing as well as they would have liked.

The spread has moved down from the original line and it makes me believe the sharps are on the same side as the public here- namely they are backing the home underdog Tigers to cover.

I like Auburn too as I believe they will have the balance Offensively which will put pressure on a young LSU Quarter Back in his first big road start. No fans will help TJ Finley, but the Auburn Tigers are a team who have been underachieving and should be able to keep him cold by running the ball at this LSU Defensive Line.

LSU have won the last three in this Conference rivalry, but Auburn are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen home games. The road team do have some very strong trends to point at, but those have come during the Joe Burrow era and I think the drop off from the 2019 National Champions will give Auburn the edge in this big SEC game between the two teams who are most likely to chase in Alabama in the Division.

I'll take the points as they are.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: The news that Trevor Lawrence has tested positive for Covid-19 may just have put a different slant on the ACC Conference in Week 9. While the Clemson Tigers are not likely to be beaten by the Boston College Eagles, the unbeaten Notre Dame Fighting Irish are next up on deck and it could be the key game of the season in this Conference.

The Covid-19 pandemic has meant College Football has had to have a different look than normal and that also meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were invited to participate in the ACC. They have taken advantage of that as they have begun the season with a 5-0 record and they are 4-0 in Conference play which means Notre Dame are right alongside Clemson at the top of the standings.

Playing in the ACC and having that game with Clemson on deck is a huge opportunity for the Fighting Irish to announce their intentions to play in the College Football PlayOff later this year. They can't afford to overlook the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets who are coming in off back to back blow out losses and have a 2-3 record in the ACC this season.

Geoff Collins does not want his Georgia Tech team to be criticised despite the fact their four defeats in 2020 have come by an average of 33 points per game. Of course that number is heavily influenced by the embarrassing 67 point loss to the Clemson Tigers, but there has to be a slight worry for Yellow Jackets fans that they are facing a team who will be keen to put some style points on the board.

This isn't the Yellow Jackets of old who were heavily reliant on the triple-option Offense and that means Jeff Sims has been able to showcase some of his arm talent as well as his ability to make plays with his legs. The young Quarter Back is going to grow from his experiences of 2020 and while he has played well enough, Sims will also appreciate that he is going to be facing a top Defensive unit in Week 9 which will present a big challenge for him.

The Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and that means they are forcing teams to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling. Sometimes it can mean the Secondary is dealing with worse numbers than their ability, but Notre Dame are also holding their season opponents to under 180 passing yards per game and it is the Defensive unit which has really impressed.

They may not always make the headlines the same was as the Offense will, but Notre Dame also have a significant pass rush that is managing to get home and I do think they can restrict this Georgia Tech team.

Ian Book will then be looking to pick up from where he left off last week in the blow out defeat of the Pittsburgh Panthers. That is arguably the best performance of the season from a Quarter Back who has now won twenty-five of his twenty-eight starts as Notre Dame signal caller.

The Quarter Back is only averaging a little over 200 passing yards per game for the season, but he threw for over 300 yards last week in the win over the Panthers. Ian Book will be looking for another statement making performance as he boosts his own personal profile and also helps the Fighting Irish improve their current Number 4 Ranking and this looks like the kind of game in which he can thrive.

Georgia Tech have simply not been able to stop teams throwing on them and the Secondary have also not been able to turn the ball over as they would have liked. It should mean Ian Book is able to pick up from where he left off in Week 8, although one of the reasons that he does not have the eye-catching numbers is that the Notre Dame Offensive Line have been dominant in setting up the run.

All season Notre Dame have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground which means Ian Book is not being asked to do too much himself and I do think the Fighting Irish can have real success in this one. The Yellow Jackets Defensive Line have allowed over 225 yards per game on the ground on average across their last three games and I expect the road team to be able to do whatever they like Offensively.

Notre Dame have covered in their last four games as the road favourite, although I can't ignore the fact that this is a big number. However Georgia Tech are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games as the home underdog and I think the Fighting Irish will be ready to make a statement here before their huge Week 10 game against the Clemson Tigers which is all but a game that will decide the top spot in the ACC and likely an unbeaten season for one of those teams.

I like the Fighting Irish to enter Week 10 with another win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Illinois Fighting Illini + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Auburn Tigers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

UCF Knights - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 30-November 2)

The season has been plenty strange already and I think it is telling that we have heard things like Kylian Mbappe talking about being fatigued and feeling like this is the end of the season rather than the beginning.

Injuries are piling up through the top European Leagues and managers are in an unenviable position of having to find results at the same time as maintaining their duty of care to their players by making sure they are well rested.

It hasn't just made things difficult for the real managers, but Fantasy Football managers have to also be feeling the pain. That is the case for my time and I am having my worst start to the Official FPL season as I have had in many a year with nothing seemingly going right and the strange, Twilight Zone entering results meaning some unfamiliar or unexpected names lead the way in terms of the points being earned.

I'll moan more about that below.

Wolves v Crystal Palace Pick: Inconsistent results have been a feature of the early Premier League season and that is the case for both Wolves and Crystal Palace. One week they can look pretty good, but on another they can play terribly and that makes it hard to get a good read on either side.

The only element that has been clear for Wolves is that they are struggling to create a lot of chances and that has resulted in problems scoring goals. Raul Jimenez continues to lead the line effectively, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 in all competitions since stunning Sheffield United with two early goals on the opening weekend of the season.

Back to back 1-0 wins would have been appreciated, but last week Wolves were punished for the lack of goals when conceding in the last few minutes in their 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United. At least Wolves can point to the fact they largely contained their visitors before Rui Patricio's error in setting up his wall for the free kick that was converted by Jacob Murphy.

It is difficult to know which Crystal Palace will turn up on Friday too- will it be the one that has been very effective going forward in their wins at Manchester United and Fulham or the one dominated at home by Brighton. Roy Hodgson's team have been better away from home where the onus is on their hosts to get forward which leaves space for a pacy attack, but Crystal Palace have also been hammered at Chelsea.

Defensive injuries are mounting up which makes it more difficult to trust Crystal Palace who have not had a clean sheet in their last 5 Premier League games and only once in their last 14 in the League. The Eagles have been scoring goals to make up for that, but it won't be easy to break down this Wolves team and games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring since the latter returned to the top flight.

All four games have ended with fewer than three goals scored and the feeling is that this PPV game on Friday evening may go the same way. An early goal could really change the entire feel of the fixture, but I think both Nuno Espirito Santo and Roy Hodgson are managers who will look to restrict the spaces for the fast, attacking players and that could lead to another tight fixture involving Wolves.

Goals have been more frequent in Crystal Palace games, but I would be surprised if either team is producing a lot of chances in this one. Set pieces could be key, but both clubs are pretty adept at defending them too and I think this will be a game that doesn't feature more than two goals.

Backing at least one to avoid hitting the net looks the more appealing price now the money has come down on the Under 2.5 Goals option with the 1-1 scoreline the biggest danger.

Sheffield United v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League campaign has not started ideally for Manchester City, but they will be pleased that their early setbacks have not been as costly as they tended to be twelve months ago.

This time around none of the teams have shown the kind of consistency Liverpool displayed in the first five months of the 2019/20 season and that means Manchester City are 'only' 5 points behind the League leaders with a game in hand. That is not as big a gap as they may have expected having won 2 of their 5 Premier League games played, but Pep Guardiola will know they can't afford to keep dropping points.

Back to back 1-1 away draws at Leeds United and West Ham United have just raised some doubts about this Manchester City team, but they have shown in their win at Marseille in the Champions League that there is still plenty in the tank. Being without Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus does mean Manchester City lack a focal point, but they are still creating chances and I do think they are playing much better defensively than their recent results may suggest.

In their last 4 games out of the international break Manchester City have been particularly good at the back and I do think Sheffield United are going to have a tough time breaking them down. Set pieces will likely be their biggest threat, but The Blades have been lacking a cutting edge overall which makes it hard to believe they can pick up a positive result here.

Chris Wilder is more pleased with the recent performances from his team, but Sheffield United continue to struggle in the final third. They do play some decent football which creates chances, but lacking a clinical striker is not just an issue which has plagued them this season.

Even last season Sheffield United perhaps did not have the kind of end product they deserved for their play, but they were stronger defensively. That has not been the case in the 2020/21 season so far and Sheffield United have not had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games.

They have scored just once in their last 4 home League games and even that was a Penalty and I do think Manchester City will be too strong for them. I am not sure whether the away side will be capable of blowing away Sheffield United on their own current form, but Manchester City should have enough to secure the points and I will back them to win a game in which fewer than five total goals are produced.

When Manchester City are at their best they capable of hammering any team at any ground, but this is a team who have looked to be a little more defensively sound in recent games. They have not scored more than a single goal in their last 2 away Premier League games, but Manchester City should have at least one more in them here which will likely be enough to secure the three points.

Burnley v Chelsea Pick: The difficulty for those clubs playing in European Football compared with those who are not is clear to see as Chelsea will continue to play every three days while Burnley are going to have had a week to prepare for the fixture.

Even then there are no excuses for the so called 'bigger' clubs who have deeper squads and ultimately have players who are used to being involved in big games all the time.

Chelsea's 0-4 win in Krasnodar was an impressive one for the players as they ended a 3 game run without a victory. Most pleasing for Frank Lampard has to be the third clean sheet in a row and I expect he is going to be preparing his team to be focused from set pieces as they look for a fourth in a row.

They are facing a Burnley team who played well on Monday Night Football in their narrow 0-1 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. On another day the 1-0 scoreline may have been in favour of Burnley and Sean Dyche has to be encouraged by the level of performance.

Injuries continue to hurt Burnley, but they are not a team who are likely to roll over for Chelsea despite the poor home run against them. Burnley have lost 5 of their last 6 at Turf Moor against Chelsea and they have conceded four goals in each of the last 2 here against them.

It may be a concern that Chelsea managed that number in wins over Crystal Palace and Krasnodar earlier this month, but there is still a lack of consistency in the away side. That is no surprise with the number of new faces in the squad, although Chelsea have looked much more secure defensively ever since Edouard Mendy has taken over from Kepa.

He made some decent saves in Russia on Wednesday and was also a key performer in the goalless draw at Manchester United. It might give Chelsea the slight edge here, and I can't ignore the current struggles Burnley have been having at getting on the scoreboard recently.

The feeling is that one of these teams will end up failing to score and that is more likely to be Burnley than Chelsea. It could be a battle if Burnley replicate the levels they produced against Tottenham Hotspur though and the feeling is that it may be a fixture where one, or both, of the teams fail to find the back of the net.

Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: You can't help but be impressed with the recent performances of West Ham United and David Moyes is rebuilding his reputation following a poor time as manager of Manchester United.

It has been over six years since Moyes has left Old Trafford, but he has not had much consistent success anywhere. His two spells at West Ham United have been the best moments in the time since and the start made to the new season has just reminded people of the successes David Moyes had when managing Everton.

The fixture list could not have been much more awkward for Moyes and The Hammers to open the 2020/21 season, but the character of the squad has produced some huge results. Even in the defeat at the Emirates Stadium West Ham United were the better team and they have followed that with Premier League wins over Leicester City and Wolves and come from 3-0 down to earn a draw with Tottenham Hotspur before another draw against Manchester City.

Those are some top results and they will head up the M1/M6 with some confidence despite the poor recent outcomes from visits to Anfield. This time West Ham United have largely a fully fit squad to choose from and they are taking on a Liverpool team that has problems in picking a backline for this game through injury.

With the goals West Ham United are scoring they will give it a go here, although they will obviously be given a setback if Michail Antonio is not able to take part. Even then you have to believe West Ham United have to try and challenge a Liverpool backline which is decimated at the heart of the team.

That will be an issue for the home team to deal with, but Liverpool's front three are fresh and they are a team that create chances at Anfield. As positive as the eventual results have been, you can't just throwaway the 3-0 deficit West Ham United found themselves in at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month before the late recovery.

Manchester City also had some decent chances against them and in Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah Liverpool do have players who won't be as wasteful in front of goal. Liverpool have also scored plenty of goals when hosting West Ham United in recent times and I do think the home team will look to protect the makeshift centre half pairing by getting on the front foot and pushing West Ham United backwards.

I would not be surprised if The Hammers played their part in this fixture, but Liverpool should be too good and I think that will lead to an important victory for them ahead of a big week. A late goal may be needed, but I expect Liverpool to find a way to break down West Ham United and win this by a comfortable looking margin when all is said and done.

Aston Villa v Southampton Pick: There won't have been many who would have suggested this would be a fixture between two of the current top seven in the Premier League and especially not at this stage of the season.

Both Aston Villa and Southampton have to be very pleased with the starts made to the campaign and this may be a special season if the rest of the Division continue to perform as inconsistently week to week as they have been.

The two clubs are both within touching distance of the leaders Everton and there should be a confidence about them.

Some of that may have been knocked from Aston Villa who were beaten 0-3 by Leeds United last time out and now they have to face a Southampton team who are unbeaten in 4 games. The Saints have won 3 of those including the victory over then unbeaten Everton last Sunday and they have looked pretty good defensively ever since the home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.

Those stronger performances have resulted in 3 clean sheets from their last 4 Premier League games and I do think Southampton won't be worried about this fixture. While they will recognise the quality Aston Villa have in the final third, Ralph Hasenhuttl has to believe his own attacking players can have success at Villa Park in what could be a decent watch on Sunday.

Southampton may have a slight mental edge having beaten Aston Villa twice last season, although both wins came before the break in play in March. Since then Aston Villa have been much better and you have to say the defeat to Leeds United is more of an exception than the normal level since June.

It looks like a really good game on paper and the potential to be one, but both clubs are actually playing pretty well defensively. It may mean there isn't much in this one and I do have to give Southampton a slight advantage as the underdog in what could be a close game.

I can't rule out the draw, but I do think Southampton have perhaps been playing slightly better than Aston Villa of late. The home team did hammer Liverpool here which has to be respected, but they perhaps didn't deserve to beat Sheffield United and I think that win over Liverpool makes them a touch over-rated.

Perhaps I will be wrong, but Southampton should be good enough to avoid defeat on their current levels of performance.

Newcastle United v Everton Pick: While Newcastle United earned what was largely an undeserved point, Everton were losing their unbeaten start to the Premier League season and both managers have to be looking for an improvement in fortunes.

Neither club has won either Premier League coming out of the international break and that does put a bit of pressure on them with two weeks to go until the November break in play.

In saying that, I do think both Newcastle United and Everton will be happy with the way things have been going and it is all about making the small adjustments to improve results. Out of the two teams the feeling is that Everton are still performing at a better level than Newcastle United despite the downturn in results.

The absence of Richarlison is a blow to the line up and losing both starting full backs for this game does mean the squad is being stretched. That has to be a concern for Everton fans as they look to maintain their spot at the top of the Premier League, but they will believe there is still enough quality to hurt a Newcastle United team who have not been at their best defensively in the last couple of weeks.

Newcastle United should have some successes of their own with the pace they have in forward areas through Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson, but I think the edge has to be with the visitors. Everton have a very good record in recent visits to St James' Park too and there might still be enough quality in the team even without Lucas Digne, Seamus Coleman and Richarlison to edge to the points here.

The first goal is absolutely huge in this one, but if Everton can get it I do think they can go on and secure the three points in a big game for the squad.

Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: 

Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: 

Fulham v West Brom Pick: 

Leeds United v Leicester City Pick: 

MY PICKS: Wolves-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score NO

Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals

Burnley-Chelsea Both Teams to Score NO

Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur - 0.75 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 7

I honestly can't quite get to grips with the Official FPL game this season.

If things could go wrong they probably have for my team and I can't seem to get out of the way of those players who lose value which makes it very difficult to turn things around too. It would help if those I have selected could convert some of their XG and XA marks into actual points and overall I am sure you can sense my feelings of frustration.

It does irritate me that others are seemingly benefiting from players who have picked up points almost undeservedly, but at this stage I just feel it is a long season and I am hoping things begin to settle in what has been a strange Premier League season to this point.

I am not entirely convinced they will which means having to make adjustments in the thinking, and that may also mean having to take more Hits than I am used to.

Press Conferences are going to be important for the next two months to try and get a feeling of where players are being rested and it does mean the squad in general has to be stronger than I have sometimes had in the past.

I was hoping to have a transfer roll over into GW8, but I think there is a feeling that either Sergio Reguilon or Ben Chilwell could be rested. That would mean Adam Webster coming in, but I think I can upgrade the defence this week and I am going to want to roll over the transfer through the international break.

For the main part I am happy with the squad and I am not going to rush out and make changes to my team knowing I deserve more points than I have earned to this point. At some stage the luck has to change and I have already made the mistake of dropping Timo Werner before he returned in the kind of manner I would have wanted.

Marcus Rashford is another who has thrived just after I have taken him out of the squad and I want to avoid those rash decisions this week.

Some players are in the last chance saloon- I can't carry Riyad Mahrez for his value and lack of returns, but he has a decent looking fixture this Saturday assuming he is given the start. I do have an idea of some teams and players I would like to target in the weeks ahead, but for now I am looking for this squad to find a way to produce the returns.

I will post my team on Twitter at the deadline on Friday evening.

NFL Week 8 Picks 2020 (October 29-November 2)

I should have this thread filled out a little more before the Sunday Week 8 games in the NFL.

For now you can read my selection for Thursday Night Football and the NFC South Divisional Game that is on deck.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Two NFC South Divisional rivals meet on Thursday Night Football and it feels like it is a much bigger game for the hosts than the visitors. The Carolina Panthers did lose a heartbreaker in Week 7 to rivals the New Orleans Saints which has dropped them back under 0.500 for the season, but at 3-4 they are in a much stronger position than the Atlanta Falcons.

Despite firing Head Coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and it was more of the same in Week 7. Since removing Quinn the Falcons did win their first game of the season, but a brain freeze from Todd Gurley meant they allowed the Detroit Lions to drive down the field and win in Week 7 to drop Atlanta to 1-6.

Even an expanded PlayOff that the NFL are running at the end of the season is unlikely to be wide enough to allow the Falcons to recover from their current position.

Todd Gurley had to simply stop on the one yard line and he would have set up the Falcons for a game winning chip shot as time expired, but the Running Back didn't do that and barrelled in for the Touchdown. It meant the Falcons were only leading by less than a converted Touchdown and the mistake was all the more jarring as Gurley had previously been praised for doing exactly that when a member of the Rams.

Bouncing back won't be easy for the Falcons, but they should at least be motivated by the chance of earning revenge over the Panthers who left Georgia with a win earlier this month. Atlanta look much healthier now on both sides of the ball than they were when these teams met in early October and I do think they have a chance of securing an upset win as long as the players are not feeling sorry for themselves.

There is a real opportunity for Todd Gurley to make up for his mistake in Week 7, even though it still has to be pointed out that the Defensive unit could have done more to stop the Detroit Lions driving the full field and scoring the game winning Touchdown too. The Running Back will be going up against a Carolina Defensive Line which has struggled to stop the run all season and I do anticipate Gurley having a strong outing as he did when playing the Panthers earlier this season.

On that day Todd Gurley managed to produce over 100 yards on the ground and the return of Julio Jones should mean the Panthers can't focus on trying to clamp down on the Running Back.

Matt Ryan had a really poor game against the Panthers, but the return of Jones has been a huge boost for him and his Receiving corps and I do expect better here. Carolina are not really generating much of a pass rush that should mean Ryan has the time to make his plays down the field and this Panthers Secondary is also one that may not be able to really compete with the weapons the Falcons have in the passing game.

I expect a decent balance to come from Atlanta when they have the ball, but the same may not be said of Carolina who look to be continuing to miss Christian McCaffrey. Mike Davis is also banged up and the Falcons Defensive Line have shown an improvement when it comes to clamping down on Running Backs having held teams to 3.6 yards per carry on average across their last three games.

That is a real improvement on the overall season numbers and includes the first meeting with the Panthers, although Davis did have a strong showing in the first game with an ability to be a pass catching Back seeping out a problem for the Falcons to deal with. Even if Davis was fully healthy I think the Falcons might have been better prepared to face him, but I do think Carolina can still have success Offensively and that is mainly down to Teddy Bridgewater at Quarter Back.

Teddy Bridgewater has been well protected by his Offensive Line and should have a clean pocket for much of this contest and he has also been looking after the ball exactly how the Panthers had schemed it up when they signed up to replace Cam Newton and Kyle Allen. He has averaged 250 passing yards per game across his last three starts and Bridgewater has been more than a simple game manager with some big plays to the likes of Robby Anderson and DJ Moore catching the eye.

Both Receivers should feel they are comfortable going up against this Falcons Secondary which has been impacted by injuries all season and simply not covered as effectively as they would have liked. Even now the Falcons are allowing over 320 passing yards on average in their last three games and we all just saw Matthew Stafford make some big plays under pressure and time constraints to lead the Lions to a win over them.

We might have a Thursday Night Football game between two teams with losing records for the second week in a row, but this could be a fun watch between two NFC South rivals. Both teams have been better Offensively than Defensively and I do think we are going to see some big plays which should challenge the total points line.

However my lean is towards taking the points even if that means backing the Atlanta Falcons, a team who have found a way to lose games they have virtually locked up too many times already this season. I feel they have the better balance on the Offensive side of the ball, although I am disappointed to have missed out on the full Field Goal worth of points that were being offered earlier this week.

I don't think Teddy Bridgewater or the Carolina Panthers will have a bad game, but they are also off a disappointing defeat which would have sapped some of the confidence and this is likely going to come down to which of the teams have the ball last. Being motivated to avenge a defeat should propel Atlanta who were close to beating Carolina even when missing some key players earlier this month.

The Falcons are 5-1 against the spread in the last six of this Divisional rivalry and they have not been beaten twice by Carolina since the 2013 season. They are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog, while Carolina are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite.

I would have loved the full 3 points here, but the Falcons may still be appealing enough as the underdog. We might be below a key number here, but two of Atlanta's six losses this season have come by a point so taking the 2 points here is still appealing enough.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They already hold a Divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in the 2020 season and the Green Bay Packers can move to 6-1 with another victory over their rivals on Sunday in Week 8 of the season. The Packers are due out again on Thursday Night Football in the coming days, but Aaron Rodgers is not going to allow his team to keep the door open for this Divisional rival nor the Chicago Bears.

It is a big game coming up for the Packers who were embarrassed the last time the nation had their eyes on one of their games, but that doesn't mean they can overlook the Vikings. At 1-5 Minnesota might be a team involved in more trades having allowed Yannick Ngakoue to move to the Baltimore Ravens and with some of their Receivers being involved in trade rumours, but they will be motivated out of their Bye Week to at least earn revenge for the home blow out to these Packers in Week 1 of the season.

Things have changed markedly since as the Vikings went into that game as more than a Field Goal worth of points favourite, but they are a big underdog here. At least they will be boosted by the likely return of Dalvin Cook who missed the Week 6 blow out loss to the Atlanta Falcons and it is going to be important for Minnesota to establish the run in what looks to be testing conditions in Green Bay.

Kirk Cousins has been playing better since Justin Jefferson has emerged as a second option in the Receiving department, but it is going to be a cold and gusty day and you do have to wonder how the Quarter Back will face things having become used to indoor conditions. He did play outside for the Washington Football Team in his time in the nation's capital, but Cousins is going to need Dalvin Cook to step up and keep the team in third and manageable spots.

You would think it is going to be the game for Cook with Green Bay's Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, but the Packers have clamped down a little bit up front and the conditions could see them have better success than expected. I still think Kirk Cousins will make some big throws for his team to keep the chains moving and the Vikings can give themselves a chance in this one.

At the same time you do have to believe the Green Bay Packers are going to have a strong day Offensively even in the difficult conditions expected. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level and in Davante Adams he has a player who can dominate the Minnesota Secondary, although how much Rodgers throws the ball is going to come down to the weather.

If things were clear I think Aaron Rodgers would have a huge game, but the Packers will likely be leaning on the run game more than usual. Aaron Jones looks set to miss out again, but Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon filled in admirably enough in the crushing win at the Houston Texans in Week 7.

However it is not going to be easy to run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which remains the strength of this unit and Green Bay have struggled for consistency on the ground.

In a game which is going to need the teams to control things on the ground I do think it gives the Minnesota Vikings a chance of keeping this one close. Despite the public being behind the home team against the 1-5 Vikings, the line has come down from the full 7 points and I tend to lean with the sharp players who are looking for Minnesota to be much stronger with Dalvin Cook back in the line up.

Minnesota are coming off a Bye Week and they have a solid 6-1 record against the spread in their last seven following a blow out loss at home, while they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog.

The Packers have some very strong trends too, but they have that big game against San Francisco on deck and in the conditions I am not sure they can score enough points to cover a number such as this one.

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The only chance I have felt the New York Jets would have in this game is that it would be scheduled before Kansas City had some big Conference or Divisional games ahead. Unfortunately for the Jets, who I have little sympathy for, that is not the case and I think the Chiefs are going to find a way to blow past a mammoth spread which would not be out of place in the College Football ranks.

It says a lot about the state of the Jets that they are being given as many points as they are in Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season and they are very much the favourites to finish with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the Draft. The fans will be clamouring for Trevor Lawrence which means the pressure is on Sam Darnold, the young Quarter Back who has not really been given the support from the Jets to succeed here.

He returned last week against the Buffalo Bills and the early positive drives quickly dried up, although the Jets did manage to lose their latest game by fewer than double digits which have become the norm. At 0-7 they do maintain control of the inside track to Lawrence and it is hard to see New York being competitive let alone winning here at Arrowhead.

Le'Veon Bell will be on the opposite sidelines this week so it is very difficult to see how the Jets can have Offensive success. Jamison Crowder looks set to miss another week and I don't think Frank Gore is going to be able to expose some of the issues Kansas City have had on the Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run.

As long as it is close I do think New York will try and pound the veteran Gore at Kansas City, but Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco have struggled the moment the Jets have gotten behind the chains. That may be the case in Week 8 and the Offensive Line has simply not offered any of their Quarter Backs the time they have needed to make plays.

Without their top Receiving option it is very difficult to see the Jets moving the ball, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't have any of those issues. While some expect Mahomes to throw the ball over this Jets Secondary, Andy Reid may be able to lean on his Running Backs to rip off some huge gains on the ground.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a huge weapon for the Chiefs in his rookie season, but the arrival of Le'Veon Bell increases the threat in the backfield. Bell in particular will be looking to punish Adam Gase and the Jets for his short time with the team and I think the Chiefs will have considerable success on the ground and with the two Running Backs coming out of the backfield too.

Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and he can do pretty much whatever he feels like from the Quarter Back position. Holes in the Jets Secondary should leave them open for some big plays down the field and I think Kansas City are going to be able to score points every time they have the ball which will give them a chance to cover a very big spread.

The Quarter Back should not feel much pressure from the Jets pass rush so it should be a decent day for Patrick Mahomes, although I do think the Chiefs will be looking to help Le'Veon Bell earn some revenge over his former team. Giving the ball to Bell through the second half would not be surprising with a decent lead the Chiefs should have by then and may be the only way Patrick Mahomes is not throwing for 500 yards in this game!

The size of this spread has to be a concern in the NFL, but I think the Jets may struggle to move the ball and that should see Kansas City earn some short fields. His new team-mates may want to help Le'Veon Bell show what he is capable of and I think that is how they will pull away for a big win.

Los Angeles Rams @ Miami Dolphins Pick: If the season was suddenly ended before this weekend the 3-3 Miami Dolphins would only just miss out on a PlayOff berth. They beat the New York Jets comfortably in Week 6 before heading into the Bye Week and that is perhaps what makes it even more surprising that a decision was made to remove Ryan Fitzpatrick at Quarter Back and begin the Tua Tagovailoa era in South Florida.

Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the first to tell you that his position as Miami Quarter Back was never going to be a long-term one, but the veteran was also very upset with the decision to make the change now. The entire team respects Fitzpatrick and he has been playing at a high level to help the Dolphins to their current record which has them trailing the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, but ahead of long-time dominant New England.

It is going to be interesting to see how the rest of the team respond to the move at Quarter Back as Miami come out of their Bye Week and host the 5-2 Los Angeles Rams. The bounce back win for the Rams on Monday Night Football means they remain very competitive in the tough NFC West where every team has won at least four games and holds a winning record, but the Los Angeles Rams have to remain focused on themselves.

No one will call this spot a good one having had the short week to prepare against a well rested opponent and playing in the early slot on the East Coast is never easy for any West Coast team.

Sean McVay won't be interested in excuses though and his team are playing well enough Offensively to feel they can challenge the Dolphins and at least force their rookie Quarter Back into a shoot out. The Rams have seen Jared Goff open the 2020 season in much better form at Quarter Back than he displayed through much of 2019, but McVay will also want to limit the amount of times he challenges the strength of the Miami Defensive unit which remains in the Secondary.

Los Angeles are going into a Bye Week so they can leave it all on the line here and should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground. While the Rams very much leave the Running Back duties to the hot hand, they should be comfortable running behind this Offensive Line which has paved the way for some big gains on the ground. They are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run effectively this season and I think that is going to be important to keep Jared Goff in front of the chains.

The Head Coach has shown he is a very good Offensive mind too and so I can see Sean McVay helping his Quarter Back with some quick passes drawn up to get the Rams key players out into space. Putting some screens and quick slants in play should open things up down the field, but Los Angeles are going to be happy enough to methodically move the ball and then rely on their own Defensive unit to step up and make some big plays for them.

Tua Tagovailoa is making his first start in the NFL and a rookie Quarter Back facing this Los Angeles Rams Defense is not ideal. It isn't as if Tagovailoa can lean on the running game to at least put himself in a strong position to try and make plays and the inconsistent Miami rushing Offense is unlikely to find much joy from this Rams Defensive Line.

A strong pass rush is also going to put the rookie Quarter Back under pressure and this Los Angeles Secondary have played well to contain teams. It does have to be said that they have not exactly played the very best teams in the NFL with four of their seven games coming against the awful NFC East, but that should not take away from what the Rams have done Defensively and I am not sure Tua Tagovailoa is going to have the experience to get the better of them too.

At least Ryan Fitzpatrick could rely on some of the chemistry with this Receivers to try and keep the chains moving, but it would be a surprise if Tagovailoa has been able to do the same in the last two weeks and I like Los Angeles to win this one on the road.

Los Angeles are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen road games and they have played well on the East Coast under Sean McVay. I can't dismiss the Miami Dolphins because they are well Coached and that has resulted in some strong trends of late, but the rookie going in at Quarter Back may make the one mistake which swings this game in favour of the Los Angeles Rams who can produce a good looking win here.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons + 2 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

NFL Week 7 Picks 2020 (October 22-26)

The NFL season continues through into Week 7 and this looks like one week where there have been no fallout from the Covid-19 crisis that continues to blight our lives.

The Las Vegas Raiders game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been moved out of the Sunday Night Football slot just in case after the former lost some of their Offensive Linemen to a positive test, but that game is set to go ahead at the time of writing albeit in the late afternoon slot instead.

After another positive week for the Picks, I am looking to keep the momentum going through Week 7.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: A 4-2 start to the season may not feel as such for the Cleveland Browns after being blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6. Both defeats have come in heavy losses at their Divisional rivals Pittsburgh and the Baltimore Ravens and Odell Beckham Jr made it clear that he is fed up of seeing his team lose to the better teams they have been facing.

Out of the four wins you would have to say that only the Indianapolis Colts could be considered a decent team that the Cleveland Browns have beaten. One of those wins came against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns will be looking to compete the double over them and remain in a strong position to at least push for a PlayOff spot at the end of the regular season.

The Bengals are 1-4-1 on the season as they try and break in rookie Quarter Back Joe Burrow, but they will be very disappointed that they blew a 21-0 lead in their loss at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6. Frustrations have also spread to some of their veteran players on both sides of the ball who don't believe they are being used in the correct way and may be looking for a way out of Cincinnati sooner rather than later.

Joe Burrow hasn't played badly for the Bengals, but there have been rookie mistakes and it may be a tough game for him against a motivated Cleveland Browns looking to bounce back from their own loss last time out. He will have to make do without Joe Mixon who has been ruled out, and it is very difficult to imagine Giovani Bernard having a big game on the ground without their star Running Back in the backfield.

The Cleveland Defensive Line has been stout for much of the season and they should be able to clamp down on Bernard, although the veteran could be a threat as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.

While running the ball may be difficult, Joe Burrow may still have a decent outing against this Browns Secondary which is banged up and allowing Quarter Backs to have a strong day throwing the ball. Ben Roethlisberger didn't do a lot last week as the Defensive unit stepped up for Pittsburgh, but even then the Browns have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game through the air on average in their last three games.

With AJ Green in the line up I do think Joe Burrow will have a decent game, although the Offensive Line remains a bit of a mess. The pass protection has not really stood up and this Cleveland front is the strength of the Defensive unit and should be able to at least rattle the Quarter Back if he is left in third and long spots.

Injuries are not only affecting the teams on the this side of the ball, but the Cleveland Browns have to continue to make do without Nick Chubb. I have no doubt that Kareem Hunt is a very good player to fill the gap, but their bigger issue may be whether Baker Mayfield has recovered from the injury that was clearly limiting him in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Baker Mayfield has been in full practice on Thursday and Friday so I do think he will be ready to go, but I think it is important that Hunt establishes the run. The Browns were not able to do that last week, but I think he will have a lot more success against this Bengals Defensive Line which has given up some big yards on the ground and that should mean Mayfield has more chance of having a bounce back performance.

The way Cleveland have largely been able to run the ball means they don't ask Baker Mayfield to do too much, but I can imagine the Quarter Back wants to show he is over whatever was bothering him in Week 6. He is facing a Cincinnati Secondary which has struggled to cover Receivers and Mayfield has both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr as well as Austin Hooper to make some big plays for him through the air.

Cincinnati might be able to make some plays in the backfield if Cleveland are in third and long spots, but I do think that is not going to happen often in this one with Kareem Hunt likely to have a big game for the Browns.

As long as Baker Mayfield is much closer to full health as his practice designation would suggest I do like the Browns to bounce back here. They have dealt with the teams they are supposed to this season and have already beaten Cincinnati with the score looking closer than it was thanks to a late Bengals Touchdown.

Cleveland have won four of the last five against the Cincinnati Bengals, although I am a little concerned about backing a team who are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the road favourite. However the Bengals are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog and while this spread has not crossed over a key number I do like the Browns to bounce back in Week 7.

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was supposed to be a game in which the Green Bay Packers showed by they are the favourites to win the NFC this season, but being a road favourite at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not work out as expected for them. It started well enough with the unbeaten Packers moving into an early 10-0 lead, but back to back Aaron Rodgers Interceptions, one a Pick Six, saw the Buccaneers move ahead and never look back in a blow out win.

There will have been some questions asked of one another in the locker room after the defeat to the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers also suggested the team may not have been as focused as they should have been. Coming off a blow out loss it is hard to imagine Green Bay laying another egg even in a non-Conference game and despite a Divisional Game next on the docket.

Ultimately good teams and good Quarter Backs don't really want to offer back to back defeats at any point and I do think the Packers also know full well they are in a battle in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears so every game could matter. With the Covid-19 issues that remain existent throughout the United States games may yet be cancelled in the regular season so every game should feel that much more important towards the final Seedings for the PlayOffs.

Green Bay are coming off an embarrassing loss on National TV, but the Houston Texans won't be feeling any better having dropped to 1-5 after a late lead was blown against Divisional rivals the Tennessee Titans. Bill O'Brien may be gone and boosted the players, but Houston have been left with some serious holes thanks to the moves made by the former Head Coach/General Manager and it doesn't seem likely that this Texans team will be able to bounce back from a slow start as they have in recent seasons.

The Texans do have Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and he is trying his best to carry this team on his back, but Offensively there is too much inconsistency and the decision to trade away DeAndre Hopkins looks more baffling in each passing week. Watson has had three strong weeks for the Houston Texans, but he is going to need a couple of his Receivers to step up in this one and make plays if they are going to find some consistent throws in this game.

Like many teams who face the Packers, the Houston Texans have to look to establish the run and David Johnson may have one or two nice moments in this one. For all of their strengths, there has to be a worry for the Packers that their Defensive Line have yet to find a way to clamp down on the run and keeping Deshaun Watson in third and short spots will at least give the Quarter Back a chance.

Like I said, I do think Watson will have some success, but he may also have to use his legs to get away from the pass rush pressure. Interceptions have been an issue for Watson, but he should at least give Houston a couple of nice drives in this one. However, I am not sure that will be enough if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers get back to the form they were showing prior to the Bye Week.

The Packers have a future Hall of Fame Quarter Back, but in this one they may be looking to show a little better on the ground behind their Offensive Line. There are one or two injuries on the unit that may have affected their recent performances on the ground and Aaron Jones is Questionable for this one, but even then the Packers may be facing the right opponent to get back on track.

Julian Williams and AJ Dillon are able to fill in for Jones if he is absent and the Houston Texans have allowed teams to run the ball at 5.7 yards per carry on average across their last three games. Last week they were trampled by Derrick Henry and selling out to stop Aaron Rodgers and the passing game should open up some big lanes on the ground.

Aaron Rodgers will be looking to follow up other Quarter Backs who have exposed the Houston Secondary, although he has to be a little wary about playing behind a banged up Offensive Line. The Texans do get after the Quarter Back and they will likely get into the backfield here, but Rodgers is a smart player and can use his feet to give him time from third and manageable spots to hit his Receivers down the field.

I do expect a big performance from Rodgers and he should be able to give the Green Bay Packers the edge in what is likely going to be a shoot out.

Houston are a decent team, but there are issues in the squad on both sides of the ball which they have not managed to overcome. Deshaun Watson won't give up in any game, but his team are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home underdog.

They have not covered in their last six as the underdog overall and Green Bay have covered in their last five games following a straight up loss. Playing indoors should only benefit Aaron Rodgers even more and I like the Packers who played poorly in Week 6.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Pick: Only one team remains winless in the 2020 NFL season and the New York Jets will be taking aim at Divisional rivals the Buffalo Bills in a bid to end that unwanted record. It is a big ask of the Jets who have looked like a mess on both sides of the ball and the fans are already hoping the saviour of the franchise is going to be selected with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Trevor Lawrence is the player the fans would love to see suiting up in the green and white jersey next season, but current incumbent starting Quarter Back Sam Darnold is not concerning himself with that talk. It hasn't been that long since Darnold was a First Round selection by the Jets and at 23 years old he is bound to get other offers in the NFL, although things can go downhill quickly when a player is not performing.

At the moment we don't really know if Sam Darnold is performing or not as he has been out injured, but he was back in limited practice this week and may be ready to take over from Joe Flacco. However the young Quarter Back could be missing the likes of Jamison Crowder, who is the main Receiving weapon the Jets have, while Darnold will be playing for the first time without Le'Veon Bell who was released and subsequently signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.

It just makes moving the ball feel like a very difficult task for Sam Darnold even if the Buffalo Bills Defense has not played up to the level of their reputation. Jamison Crowder is a big loss and it is very difficult to lean on Frank Gore at Running Back and hope he is going to set the Jets up.

The Buffalo pass rush may also be able to show some signs of life against this New York Offensive Line which has not been very good in pass protection. If Sam Darnold is limited he may not be able to scramble away from the pressure and that should mean drives are stalled and the worst team in the NFL is going to find it very hard to avoid another double digit defeat.

It sounds much more simple than it is because the Bills are coming off a heavy Monday Night Football loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and they do have to face the long-time kings of the AFC East in Week 8. There is a chance this is a very bad spot for Buffalo, but Josh Allen should be inspired to show he is better than his last performance and he should be able to have a comfortable day throwing into this Secondary.

Josh Allen is going to be tasked with moving the ball as the Bills continue to struggle to establish the run with both Devin Singletary and Zach Moss disappointing so far. The Quarter Back can make a few runs with his legs that can keep the Jets guessing, but the New York strength is on the Defensive Line and so it will be up to Allen to show better accuracy and connect with his Receivers down the field.

A limited pass rush should mean Josh Allen is dealing with a clean pocket and Stefon Diggs and John Brown should be able to win on the outside and make some big plays for their Quarter Back. One issue is that there are a number of Buffalo Tight Ends who have joined the Covid-19 list, although this game is not under threat.

This is a big number, but I do like Buffalo's chances of covering even in the poor spot I mentioned before. The New York Jets have not only been losing games, but they have been getting blown out and I do think the players have perhaps had enough of Adam Gase as Head Coach, while the injuries through the Offense makes it hard to know how the Jets are going to score enough points to make this one competitive.

Buffalo do tend to beat the teams they are expected to as they are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite. The Jets are 8-21-1 against the spread in their last thirty games coming in off a straight up loss of 14 or more points and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games at home.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team Pick: The NFC (L)East looks to be completely open this season and one of these teams is going to be hosting a PlayOff Game in January, although it is unlikely to be a Division from which a Wild Card team is produced.

None of the four teams have a winning record and injuries have hurt all four of them, but the Philadelphia Eagles have taken over the top spot in the Division after beating the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. That win pushes the Eagles above the 2-4 Dallas Cowboys and the 1-5 Washington Football Team who meet in a pivotal game on Sunday where the winner may feel there is some momentum behind them.

Both are coming off tough losses in Week 6- the Cowboys were blown out by the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football, while Washington went for a two point conversion at the end of their game against the New York Giants that ultimately failed and dropped them to a one point defeat.

Kyle Allen has been restored to the starting role at Quarter Back for Washington, but he made a couple of big mistakes in Week 6 that cost his team the chance to beat the Giants. Those mistakes hurt all the more when you think of what Allen is supposed to bring to the team, but Ron Rivera has maintained he will be the starter at the moment with Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith behind him.

It would be very helpful to the entire Offense if the home team could establish the run, but the Offensive Line has struggled. They have not found any consistency up front, but the Dallas Defensive Line has been more productive when it comes to the pass rush than run stuffing and so the Football Team may actually have a chance to earn some yards on the ground.

The Quarter Back would appreciate being in third and manageable spots, but more importantly would be able to get the ball out of his hands quickly when looking for short yardage markers. The longer Kyle Allen has to hold the ball the more likely his pass protection breaks down the Cowboys can make some big plays up front.

If he does have time, Kyle Allen can hit some of his Receivers against a weak looking Secondary, but much is going to depend on how much time he is given and how effective any rushing Offense is on Sunday.

Running the ball is going to be all important for the Dallas Cowboys too as Ezekiel Elliot looks to recover from some bad moments scattered throughout the 2020 season. Too many fumbles have been costly for the Cowboys and two more on Monday Night Football saw Dallas fall into a big hole that they are not going to get out of in their current state.

Losing Dak Prescott is a huge blow, but the Offensive Line has been decimated too and that makes it very difficult to believe Andy Dalton is going to have a lot of success here despite the skill players in the Receiving corps. I do think Elliot and Tony Pollard will have a chance to establish the run, but it is also difficult to guess how a second string Offensive Line is going to cope with the Washington Football Team's Defensive Line which remains the strength of this side of the ball.

The Football Team will certainly feel they can harass Dalton into having to let go of the ball quickly and that should give them a chance to slow down what looks a powerful Offensive unit on paper. I expect Andy Dalton to be better in his second full start, but he was also very close to some big turnovers in Week 6 and this Washington team have been able to turn the ball over.

That could be key for giving Washington enough Offensive drives to earn the victory and I do think they are capable of doing that behind their strong pass rush. That should see Washington make some big plays and potentially win the turnover battle that can prove to be the difference in so many games in the NFL.

Dallas have won seven of the last eight runnings of this Divisional rivalry and that can't be dismissed easily.

Both teams have some poor trends of late, but I think the Offensive Line issues are going to be a problem for Dallas and that should see Washington edge to the win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: The rich have gotten richer in the NFL after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided to sign Antonio Brown to add to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as serious Receiving weapons for Tom Brady. They already showed that they may be the team to beat in the NFC with their crushing win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 6 and that came behind a strong Defensive effort rather than Brady and the Offense taking over.

As each week passes you do feel that Brady and the rest of the Buccaneers are understanding each other more and more and I do think that will see Tampa Bay look to peak at the right time. At 4-2 Tampa Bay top the NFC South and they will feel they can challenge for the top Seed in the NFC even though the Seattle Seahawks are still an unbeaten team in the Conference.

To do that the Buccaneers can't afford to drop any game so even these non-Conference outings are very important for the team. Offensively they will feel they can have success against the Las Vegas Raiders who are off a Bye Week having beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 in a huge upset on the road.

That is a very strong win for Jon Gruden and his team and should have the entire team believing this is a potentially big season for them. The Raiders are definitely on the right path to success and they will certainly feel that they can earn a Wild Card spot in the AFC at the very least this season.

This is another 'prove it' kind of game for the Raiders who are in the midst of a very tough part of their schedule. The challenge for Las Vegas is taking on a Tampa Bay Defensive unit which just hammered Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and the Raiders are going to have to do that being short-handed on the Offensive Line.

We are still not entirely sure how many of the Offensive Line will be missing, but there are going to be a number of them on the sidelines and that is not good news for Derek Carr. Usually he could at least lean on Josh Jacobs to put the team in third and manageable spots, but Tampa Bay have been incredibly stout when it comes to stopping the run so the pressure looks to be shifted to the Quarter Back.

Derek Carr has impressed in 2020, but if he is playing behind a banged up Offensive Line he is going to be put under pressure by the Buccaneers pass rush which dominated the Packers in Week 6. That will slow down the passing game of the Raiders and the Buccaneers Secondary have played well too which suggests this could be a very difficult day for the Las Vegas Raiders.

That will also mean there is pressure on the Raiders Defensive unit to step up their own play, but I don't think Tampa Bay will have too many problems moving the chains. The threat of Tom Brady means Ronald Jones has been able to establish the run and he is facing a Raiders Defensive Line which has given up 4.8 yards per carry across their last three games.

Keeping that balance will make Tampa Bay very effective Offensively and Tom Brady has been well protected by the Offensive Line which means he can attack a Secondary giving up over 250 yards per game through the air. I expect Brady to have a strong day and his Receiving corps to show they should still be given priority targets even when Antonio Brown arrives next month.

It is a big line, but I do like the Buccaneers to win on the road.

The Raiders have performed well as the home underdog, but they are 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen off a Bye Week and I do have to have major concerns with the problems on the Offensive Line. It should mean the Buccaneers Defensive unit can have another big impact on the game like they did in Week 6 and those plays should give Tampa Bay the opportunity to pull away for a good looking win on the road.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 10 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team - 1 Point @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Denver Broncos + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)

New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)