Tennis Picks 2018 (March 1st)

I looked through the Thursday matches from Dubai and Sao Paulo and could not find an option I was comfortable with, even if I think Malek Jaziri is perhaps a touch under-rated to win his Quarter Final.

That was the closest match I was willing to pull the trigger on, but ultimately the decision was made to wait for the Acapulco Quarter Finals where both the ATP and WTA event taking place was scheduling all eight matches on Thursday.

It will ensure the tournament is concluded very much in time ahead of the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells which begins in less than a week. The two big tournaments in the United States coming up will conclude the first half of the hard court season before the switch to clay and the build up to the second Grand Slam of the season at Roland Garros will begin.


Feliciano Lopez v Jared Donaldson: The layers are having a hard time pricing up this Quarter Final and it is the veteran Spaniard Feliciano Lopez who goes into it as the narrow underdog against Jared Donaldson.

Both men have played well to get through to the Quarter Final, but I think Donaldson's win over Matthew Ebden and the fashion in which it came has influenced the prices too far in one direction.

As impressive as the win was, Donaldson has not played as well as he would have liked when he has been faced up with those higher up the World Rankings. He has particularly suffered when it comes to the return of serve against players Ranked inside the top 50 and that has to be an issue when facing Lopez who has been serving very well so far this week.

Lopez has two better looking wins behind him this week as he has taken advantage of Rafael Nadal's withdrawal from Acapulco. He has been serving at almost his very best level, but has also impressed with the return of serve and I think he can put enough pressure on Donaldson to beat the American.

It could need three sets to separate them and a couple of tie-breakers can't be ruled out, but I will look for the Lopez serve to be the difference maker and help him through to the Semi Final.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: I will be the first to admit that Alexander Zverev was not only fortunate to cover for me on Wednesday, but he is perhaps lucky to take his place in the Quarter Final in Acapulco. He will need to be a lot better if he is going to see off Ryan Harrison in this match, although the American also played the big points just about well enough to get through his own Second Round match.

There has been a lot to like about the way Harrison has played his tennis in 2018, although the allegations made by Donald Young after a recent match between the two in New York have been ugly. The ramifications have yet to be seen, but Harrison has managed to focus on the court having lost his next two matches in the fall out of the incident with Young.

Harrison has been serving at a high standard in 2018 which has helped him produce some solid results but there is no doubt that someone like Zverev should be able to make him work that little bit harder.

While the Zverev return has some room for improvement, I think he can make enough balls and get into the Harrison backhand to have success.

The young German's own serve has been an important weapon for him and I don't think Harrison is as strong on the return which should mean Zverev is under less pressure than he was on Wednesday. There will be moments Harrison is able to produce a couple of solid returns off back to back serves, but ultimately I would imagine Zverev has the majority of chances in this match.

I will back him to cover this number on his way through to the Semi Final.


Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung: This should be a fascinating match up between the big server and the quality returner when Kevin Anderson and Hyeon Chung meet in the Quarter Final in Acapulco.

The return has been the spark for Chung in 2018 as he made his breakthrough at the Australian Open and it has continued to be very important to a player who is tipped to win Grand Slam titles in the years ahead.

However he will have to get a read on the huge serve that Anderson has at his disposal and the big South African has been in fine form himself in 2018. The exception was a disappointing Australian Open for the US Open Finalist, but he has reached the Final of Pune and Anderson is on a six match winning run having taken the title in New York.

Anderson has also been returning well enough to believe he can get after Chung's serve, which is still a little erratic, and I think he will have enough to get past the youngster who had a long week in Delray Beach a few days ago.

Chung has been in fine form this week so has to be respected, but I like Anderson to find a way to get past him for the win and a place in the Semi Final. The serve may just produce enough cheap points to win the match with key points won behind that weapon for Anderson to get through.


Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: The head to head is hugely in favour of Lesia Tsurenko but I was still surprised the layers have made the lower Ranked player the favourite in this Quarter Final.

They've got it right in my opinion and I do think Tsurenko is going to be able to see of Kristina Mladenovic who is due a significant drop down the World Rankings. That may not happen until after the French Open with huge points to defend from 2017, but Mladenovic has been struggling as a Singles player for some time.

She has won two matches in Acapulco and reached the Final here last season which makes the Frenchwoman dangerous, but that run to the Final ended in a relatively comfortable loss against Tsurenko. Mladenovic was also a little fortunate to come through her Second Round match here and it can't be denied that Tsurenko has looked much stronger so far this week.

The Tsurenko wins have come in the manner that would have been expected and she can be hard to really trust when you think how erratic she can be. However the confidence of having won five of six previous matches against Mladenovic including here in Acapulco last year should also put Tsurenko in a good place.

I think Tsurenko will be able to work her way past Mladenovic in this Quarter Final and I will back her to win and cover the number of games being asked.


Shuai Zhang - 2.5 games v Rebecca Peterson: Any time a player is able to come through the Qualifiers and produce a couple of dominant wins in the main draw they have to be respected for being in very strong form. Rebecca Peterson has yet to drop a set in Acapulco in her four wins and she has dominated the four opponents she has met which makes her a real threat in this Quarter Final.

Beating up both Monica Puig and Alize Cornet are impressive performances from Peterson, but she will have to maintain standards against Shuai Zhang.

Zhang has not been as convincing in her wins as Peterson, but generally she plays at a much higher level than the Swedish player. The erratic nature of Zhang's performances have to be taken on board, but I think she will challenge Peterson more than her last two opponents have been able to do and I like the chances of her winning this one.

These two met a few months ago and it resulted in a comfortable win for Zhang, but I would be surprised if that happens again with Peterson playing the way she is.

However I do think Zhang can get the better of the key moments in this match which should give her every chance of moving into her first Semi Final in 2018 and also cover the number of games being asked of her.

MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-10, - 7.10 Units (34 Units Staked, - 20.88% Yield)