Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 7th)

Don't think for one second that I have forgotten what happened twelve months ago at Indian Wells.

I couldn't get anything right from the Indian Wells Masters tournament in 2017 and had some horrendous luck which destroyed both my confidence and the season totals to that point.

Fast forward twelve months and the 2018 season has begun in a very positive manner thanks to three solid weeks coming into this event.

This season I know I won't be making picks throughout the next month with the back to back Masters events in the United States, but that is mainly because I am having a short break in the middle of this period where I won't be focusing on researching picks and instead will be enjoying a break.

It all means I will have picks from Indian Wells up until next Wednesday and I may have picks at the end of the Miami Masters before we head into the clay court season and start the build towards the French Open.


Petra Martic - 4.5 games v Tatjana Maria: The First Round of the WTA Indian Wells event begins on Wednesday and the ATP Indian Wells event begins on Thursday.

There are plenty of matches to get through on Wednesday as half of the First Round is put into the books. The majority of the top players are not in action until Friday having received a bye in the First Round and so some of the matches are pretty tight to call.

Asking for consistency from those players lower down the WTA Ranking list is not easy, and this is a big number for Petra Martic who has won a number of close matches. However Martic looks capable of having a rare 'easy' win against an opponent in Tatjana Maria who has lost all seven matches played in 2018 and looked pretty terrible in doing so.

Maria has some really poor numbers in those defeats and while I think there is definite room for improvement, I do wonder if the confidence is at such a low ebb that perhaps a return to the clay courts will be the only way to get things turned around.

It is a big number and Martic has not played a lot of tennis since the Australian Open. She should still be good enough to get enough out of her serve to put the pressure on Maria and lead to another big defeat for Maria which has become the norm for her in 2018.


Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 games v Karumi Nara: The long road back from injury is continuing on a positive path for Kaia Kanepi who has begun 2018 in very strong form after a brilliant run at the US Open back in September.

The numbers have been very impressive as far as Kanepi is concerned and the only doubt about her ability to win this match may be that she has not played since the Australian Open when she reached the Fourth Round.

On the other hand Nara reached the Final of an ITF event in February and has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Indian Wells. She also played in an ITF event here last week which means Nara is very comfortable in the conditions and she has perhaps played a little better than the results have indicated.

That could make Nara dangerous, but Kanepi was producing some very strong numbers in the first couple of tournaments she has played this season. The serve is a dangerous weapon while Kanepi should be able to get plenty of pop off the return against a vulnerable serve that Nara brings to the court.

There will be times when Nara is able to use her defensive skills to extract some mistakes from Kanepi, but ultimately I am expecting the Estonian to be too strong and cover this number of games. I expected the layers to ask for at least one more game for Kanepi to cover and I like the veteran in this one.


Donna Vekic - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: At this moment in her career, the closest Donna Vekic looks like getting to picking up a Grand Slam trophy will be if Stan Wawrinka can add another to his collection. Finding the consistency on the Tour has been a problem for Vekic, but she is still only 21 years old and has plenty of experience to fall back upon.

I do think she is going to be good enough to get the better of Maria Sakkari in this First Round match where the layers have struggled to separate the players.

Neither player has been in great form but I do give the edge to Vekic who has played her matches on the full Tour while Sakkari is just 1-5 in main draw matches at the highest level. The numbers don't make great reading for Sakkari either with a serve that can be attacked and her return stats not quite up to the level that Vekic has been able to produce.

They did meet twice in 2017 with a win apiece and Sakkari was the one who was victorious in their sole match on the hard courts. However she was perhaps a little fortunate on the day and Vekic is doing enough behind serve and return to get the better of her this time around.

I imagine we will see a number of breaks of serve, but I will look for Vekic to just have the edge at the most important times and she can win and cover the games.


Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 games v Madison Brengle: There is a lot to like about Marketa Vondrousova and this is a player that could be at the forefront of women's tennis in the years ahead.

However inconsistent results have to be expected in a young career and I think that is the main reason Vondrousova is not a stronger favourite to see off Qualifier Madison Brengle.

The latter will receive the support from the American crowd and can be a frustrating player to break down when she is at her very best defensively. Even when she isn't, Brengle is willing to stay a few feet behind the baseline and look for opponents to get a little flustered having to play one extra ball to win points.

That could easily be the case if Vondrousova is not at her best on Wednesday, but Brengle's numbers have been pretty awful in 2018 especially when playing in the main draw of the top tournaments.

Vondrousova has perhaps not returned as well as she would have liked, but she will get plenty of time against the Brengle delivery. That may give her the confidence to get enough first serves in play to at least save a few more break points than her American opponent and I think the Czech player will be able to work to a winning position in this match.

The stronger numbers that Vondrousova has produced in 2018 has me leaning towards her to win the First Round match in this one.


Maria Sharapova - 2.5 games v Naomi Osaka: This is going to be a big hitting First Round match and the key for both Maria Sharapova and Naomi Osaka is making sure they get enough first serves in.

The player who is able to do that the best is going to win this match with the second serves vulnerable to the kind of aggressive returning both Sharapova and Osaka will bring to the table.

A few weeks ago Sharapova would likely have been a stronger favourite, but Osaka played well in the Middle East in back to back tournaments which would have given her confidence. However this does feel another step up for the youngster who has plenty of talent, but has struggled to find the consistency she would have liked to really move up the World Rankings.

Sharapova has not been as dominant as some thought she may be since she returned from a ban though. The numbers have still been decent enough from Sharapova, but she is clearly not the same player she once was and the layers are not convinced about her.

It is those decent numbers which makes me keen to back her in this First Round match. As much as I like the way Osaka is developing as a player, and I do expect her to make a move in the World Rankings, this is a tough match mentally. Osaka hasn't had a lot of really big wins in her young career and I can see Sharapova's presence helping make a difference for the veteran in a tough match, but one where I think the Russian can move past Osaka with a cover of this number of games.

MY PICKS: Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 19.20 Units (344 Units Staked, + 5.58% Yield)