Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 12th)

A couple of days ago I was a little frustrated that Joao Sousa could not finish the cover which would have meant a strong winning day.

Sousa served for his match against Mikhail Youzhny, but was broken at 5-3 in the deciding set when a hold would have been enough to cover the games that had been set for the match.

That was frustrating, but Sunday made up for that with two late breaks of serve being enough to get me over the line with both Tennis Picks made.

Gael Monfils breaking John Isner at 5-5 in the deciding set came at a time when it was his very last opportunity to cover the games in a win and also at a time when he hadn't looked close to breaking for almost two hours at that time.

On the other hand Sam Querrey still had a way to cover when breaking at 6-5 in the second set for a straight sets victory. I would have needed him to lose the tie-breaker and then break Mischa Zverev twice in the deciding set, so it would have been a long shot, but I was grateful he got over the line after making hard work of things throughout the match.

I mentioned yesterday that a couple of the Picks I ruled out later in the day before posting the thread, and they were a mixed bag with a couple of winners, but also a couple of losers so nothing to really impact the numbers. Winning both Picks yesterday means I have got this tournament moving back in a positive direction in the last couple of days, although I will only have Picks through to Wednesday's play before having a two week break.


Serena Williams - 1.5 games v Venus Williams: There have been teething problems for Serena Williams on her return to the Tour and she now faces a real test of her credentials when facing big sister Venus in the Third Round at Indian Wells.

The match brings up painful memories from the tournament which led to both Williams sisters boycotting attending for a number of years, but hopefully all of the focus will be on the court this time around.

Serena Williams may not be at full strength, which is no surprise considering she has been off the Tour for over a year, given birth a child and had complications in the aftermath of child birth. However she has been playing some surprisingly decent tennis and the match up with Venus has proven to be a good one for her in recent times.

There is also a few signs that Venus Williams may have slipped a little bit with her early 2018 numbers considerably worse off than how she was performing on the hard courts in 2017. It is a small sample though, but one that bears watching going forward.

Venus Williams was a dominant Second Round winner, but will have to serve at close to her best against her younger sister who has had her eye in when it comes to the return. The Serena serve has not been the potent weapon it can be when she is at her best, but Venus will have to show better returning than she has so far this season if she is going to get after it and put some pressure on her sibling.

I do think it will be a close match and I can understand why the layers have got Serena Williams as the narrow favourite. It may need three sets to decide a winner, but I think Serena has shown she is playing at a decent level for the Tour, even if not reaching her own personal standards, and I believe she gets the better of Venus in this one.

Out of the two sisters, I have always felt Serena has wanted it more in the head to head than her older sister and I think that could play a part in a Serena Williams win on Monday.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is the second time Roberto Bautista Agut and Borna Coric are facing one another in recent weeks having seen the Spaniard barely get the better of the youngster in Dubai.

That was a very close match but in conditions I would have thought would have favoured the bigger game of Coric a little more. The slower conditions in Indian Wells may allow Bautista Agut to show off his strong defensive skills and make Coric play one more ball that he is not anticipating.

But don't rule a line through Coric easily.

His numbers in 2018 have been very, very good and Coric has dominated his first two opponents in Indian Wells which suggests he is very comfortable with his game at the moment. There wasn't a lot between him and Bautista Agut in Dubai so it won't take a lot to change things around, although Bautista Agut is also producing some eye-catching numbers on the hard courts in 2018.

Coric has been returning very well in 2018, but he struggled against Bautista Agut who has been looking after serve much better than you would expect. That could be the determining factor again with Bautista Agut's return likely to produce a few break point opportunities during the course of the match.

Having seen the Bautista Agut game recently, I think Coric will have more joy on the return than he did in Dubai. However I also think the Spaniard looks to match up well with Coric and I will back Bautista Agut to cover in a victory on Monday in this Third Round match.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Taylor Fritz: There has been something of a resurgence in the Fernando Verdasco game at the beginning of 2018, although I am not sure the veteran will be able to maintain these standards through the entirety of the tennis season.

The numbers have been very good on the hard courts to open this season and I think Verdasco could be a touch disappointed to be only 4-4 on the surface to far. He has two good looking wins in Indian Wells though and is a player who thrives when the confidence starts to flow through him.

Patience may be the order of the day when he faces Taylor Fritz in the Third Round as the young American has shown he can get some real pop out of the serve which could mean chances are limited for Verdasco to break.

However it should also be noted that Fritz is not playing as well on the main Tour as he has on the Challenger circuit, while his two wins in Indian Wells this week have been a touch fortunate.

With Verdasco returning well and possessing a serve which can produce plenty of cheap points I do think the veteran can get the better of Fritz in this one. I would suggest conditions favour Verdasco and I expect him to win and cover as long as he hasn't wasted his emotional tank on beating Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 14-15, - 4.66 Units (58 Units Staked, - 8.03% Yield)