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Saturday 31 March 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- Anthony Joshua vs Joseph Parker (March 31st)

I wasn't in the United Kingdom for the Dillian Whyte versus Lucas Browne fight, but managed to catch the highlight of a showreel Knock Out produced by the British fighter who is now in line to be named the Number 1 contender for the WBC Heavyweight Title held by Deontay Wilder.

The performance as a whole sounded very impressive from Whyte, even if Browne was criticised for his own performance, and there is no doubt that Whyte has rebuilt his name to the point he would be considered a viable option for a rematch against Anthony Joshua if the Wilder fight does not materialise.

Forget all the gum-flapping, I have little doubt that Eddie Hearn is not at all interested in setting up the huge Unification between Wilder and Joshua that so many have called for. Ultimately Hearn would much rather see Wilder face Whyte and the undercurrent of talk about Jarrell Miller or a mandatory defence against Alexander Povetkin has to be considered a much more viable route for Joshua to take unless of course he is upset by Joseph Parker on Saturday.

I've considered for some time that any Wilder versus Joshua clash would not happen before 2019 and the fact that Hearn is pushing for Whyte to be named the mandatory to Wilder for his WBC crown is the clearest indication of where Matchroom want this Division to go, at least for the immediate future.

Hearn might have been shocked, but I was less surprised Wilder has refused to come over to the UK when it was made clear he would not be allowed to get into the ring to face off against Joshua if the latter won on Saturday. Like Wilder, I am of firm belief that the photo opportunity with Whyte would have been pushed forward instead and the American is not willing to play those games even if I think he would dismiss the challenge of Whyte.


If the likes of David Price and David Haye can win big fights in the next month, Joshua will have Whyte, Price and Haye ready for big defences and talk of 'freezing out' Wilder is more than a sound-byte for me. I actually think Joshua would make a defence against Price or Haye if they win their fights and then perhaps head to America to face someone like Miller in 2018 (you can switch those fights the other way around too).

Eddie Hearn would love to potentially have Whyte versus Wilder in the meantime to keep the American occupied too and I actually believe any Joshua versus Wilder fight is still some way away.

I would love to be wrong about that, but I think there has been enough talk about other fights for Joshua to take to think the Wilder deal is not something Hearn is pushing for as much as he likes to tell the media he is.


Joseph Parker would love to spoil all of the talk with an upset on Saturday, but I simply can't see that happening. I like Parker, but he has to produce something special to upset the apple-cart and I am not convinced he has that in the locker.

Parker will be able to come again, and I hope he does surprise me, but a solid looking card from Cardiff should still be a fun night for the fans in the Stadium as well as those watching around the world.


One last thing- I heard what Deontay Wilder said about having a 'body on his record'... I am a Wilder fan, but that was crossing the line and a terrible look in the sport. I don't think he wanted it to come across as it did, but it was a comment in poor taste and I hope Wilder learns from that going forward.

There are much better ways to make the point of being a different person in the ring than out of the ring, which is what Wilder was trying to say, but that specific comment wasn't a good look.


Josh Kelly vs Carlos Molina
There is no doubt this is a step up in class for Josh Kelly, but 'Pretty Boy' looks to be someone who is destined for the very top of the sport.

His opponent Carlos Molina has been in with some big names in his career, but at 34 years old his best days are some way behind him. Some of those fights came at the right time for him, but Molina has not been in with top fighters since 2014 and he was beaten by rising star Carlos Adames and also Ahmed El Mousaoui in his last couple of fights.

Molina has never been stopped so the challenge for Kelly is to try and make it five straight stoppages in his young career and I do think he is capable of doing that.

It is a 10 Round fight, but Kelly hits tremendously hard and Molina is definitely on the way out of the sport. Any Mexican fighter is unlikely to go down without a fight, but I am looking for Kelly to make a statement by becoming the first man to stop Molina and I think he can use his power to wear down Molina and either force the referee to call a halt to proceedings or for the corner to pull their man out.

Molina is someone who has tasted the canvas in his career with the likes of Adames and Cornelius Bundrage putting him down and I am high on 'Pretty Boy' and what he is capable of achieving in the sport.

It might take a bit of time to really deliver the big punches to take the fight out of the older Molina and I will have a small interest on a second half stoppage from Kelly.


Anthony Crolla vs Edson Ramirez
Anthony Crolla has been used to headlining Arena shows, but he will be happy to be on the undercard for a huge Stadium fight as he continues on his road back from consecutive losses to Jorge Linares.

A crossroads fight victory over Ricky Burns means Crolla is likely to be positioned for a World Title opportunity at some point either later in 2018 or early 2019, but he can't afford to overlook Edson Ramirez who will come to upset the show.

Ramirez is another tough Mexican who has never been stopped nor put down in his career and so there is going to be some confidence in his camp. However you can't dispute the fact this is a considerable step up in class for Ramirez and I do wonder if he will be able to handle the atmosphere and the superior fighter in Crolla.

The layers are looking for a Decision win for Crolla who has not been known for his ability to stop opponents, although that ignores the fact that four of his last six wins have come by a stoppage. Being unable to do that against Ricky Burns is no surprise considering how tough the Scot is, but I am not sure if we know enough about Ramirez' ability to take some of the quality shots Crolla can produce over the whole 10 Round distance.

It does feel like this could be a comfortable win on the cards from Crolla, but I think the step up for Ramirez may see the Manchester man just put together enough combinations to get the referee or corner to step in during the second half of the fight.

Any Mexican can be a tough out and they like going out on their shield, but I will look for Crolla to perhaps earn the stoppage in between Round 6 and 10 in this one.


Ryan Burnett vs Yonfrez Parejo
There have been rumours swirling that the next World Boxing Super Series tournament will involve the Bantamweight Division with Ryan Burnett already being spoken to about the possibility of joining in.

Burnett would be a big draw for the tournament as the WBA and IBF Bantamweight World Champion and so there is plenty on the line for the British fighter when he defends those belts against Yonfrez Parejo.

All of the belts could be on the line in the World Boxing Super Series so the winner of this one is going to be in a position to really raise their stock considering the success of that tournament in both the Super-Middleweight and Cruiserweight Division.

I don't think it is much of a surprise that Burnett is the favourite as the unbeaten Unified Champion, but Parejo has fought at World level and won't be an easy out.

Parejo lost a Split Decision to Zhanat Zhakiyanov for the interim WBA World Title and Zhakiyanov was last seen being beaten in a Unanimous Decision by Burnett.

In Boxing there isn't much weight to be put into Boxer A beat Boxer B, Boxer C then beat Boxer A so should also beat Boxer B. However Burnett has looked like a proper World Champion and I expect the Belfast man to display all of his skill and work through Parejo.

Stopping Parejo won't be easy barring the corner deciding their man has had enough when down by a wide margin on the card, but I do think the most likely outcome is Burnett dominating with a comfortable points win. That will put Burnett in a strong position to join the World Boxing Super Series potential Bantamweight tournament where he would likely be the Number 1 Seed with his two belts, and I think he will come through with a Unanimous Decision on the cards in this one.



Alexander Povetkin vs David Price
The main support fight for the big event in Cardiff is also in the Heavyweight Division and the winner of this one could potentially be in line to be the next challenger to Anthony Joshua assuming the latter wins later in the evening.

For Alexander Povetkin there is more on the line as he is currently the Number 1 contender for two of the three belts that will be up for grabs later in the evening.

However he will feel this is a risk worth taking to announce himself to the United Kingdom audience if the fight with Joshua does materialise later in 2018. Only Wladimir Klitschko has beaten Povetkin and the Russian managed to last the distance against the dominant Champion of his time.

Personally I am not a fan of someone who has failed the number of drug tests that Povetkin has and I do like David Price so my heart would love to see the Liverpudlian find a way to win this fight.

Unfortunately I don't think that is going to happen.

Price punches hard enough to be respected, but stamina issues remain a problem at the highest level while Price's own punch resistance is not up to the level needed.

I think this fight is going to play out in the same manner with two potential outcomes- I think Price is going to come out and try and win this fight with a stoppage very early and I believe he will throw the kitchen sink at Povetkin in the first three Rounds to try and earn the victory.

I don't think Price will believe he can win this over a longer distance and Povetkin may just look to weather the early storm before turning the screw against someone who has shown how quick things can fall apart for him once the gas tank is emptied.

So the two outcomes are either Price winning this one very early with the storm he brings or Povetkin will be able to weather that storm and then take control before stopping Price himself.

My feeling is the latter will happen as the Russian begins to find plenty of success against a fatigued fighter who has shown he can be stopped throughout his career once his initial attack is repelled. Price is a big puncher, but Klitschko couldn't stop Povetkin and I don't think Price will be able to do that even if he does come out to get after Povetkin very early.

You never know in Heavyweight boxing, but I expect Povetkin will eventually turn things in his favour and land some big shots as Price tires which leads to a mid-fight stoppage.

I would love to see Price land the monster shot to win this one, but I think he will perhaps have almost nothing left before the halfway mark and Povetkin can step on the gas to force the stoppage. I'll look for Povetkin to perhaps need to weather an early storm before producing a big stoppage that will set him up for the potential clash with Anthony Joshua later in the year.


Anthony Joshua vs Joseph Parker
The main event in Cardiff sees three of the Heavyweight Titles on the line and one of the biggest stars in boxing continues to help fill out huge Stadiums in the United Kingdom.

Anthony Joshua won't be looking past Joseph Parker, but there are some huge fights in front of him if he can win this fight. He has said all the right things, looks in great shape and anything other than a Joshua win would be a huge surprise.

I have time for Parker too, but I think it is almost impossible to ignore that he hasn't progressed through the gears as the competition has ramped up for him.

Maybe Team Parker are being genuine when they say Joshua is made for their man much better than the horribly awkward Hughie Fury, but I don't think it is harsh to say that Parker has not impressed in his most recent fights compared with earlier in his career.

He has come in close to a career lowest weight, but most of the attributes lean towards Joshua.

The biggest question is the durability of Parker which has been described as a big advantage for the New Zealander. However I would guess he hasn't fought someone who can hit as hard as Joshua and I do worry about the way Parker can lean forward when putting his shots together, something that is ripe for the signature Joshua uppercut to deliver a 21st win and stoppage.

I just don't know whether Parker believes in his ability as much as he says and I don't want to be caught up in the hype of the fight.

Ultimately I think Joshua is performing at a level above Parker and I am not convinced the latter will be able to bridge that gap. I will give Parker some credit in thinking he will give this a big effort and he will take some early shots from Joshua and show some durability, and perhaps even stun Joshua early in the fight.

However it is Joshua who has the reach, the size and the power and I liked the weight with the Gold Medalist likely to be able to match Parker's movement and speed.

Parker has never been dropped, as we have been reminded repeatedly, but this is the biggest puncher he has faced and I think Joshua wears him down in a firefight. Perhaps the referee jumps in and saves Parker from himself, or the corner look for their man to come back and fight another day, but I think Joshua will win this fight in the mid-Rounds of this Title fight.

It should be a fun night while it lasts, but it should be Joshua who makes sure he sends his fans home happy.

MY PICKS: Josh Kelly to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Anthony Crolla to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.60 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Ryan Burnett to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Povetkin to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Anthony Joshua to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 10-10, + 17.28 Units (33 Units Staked, + 52.36% Yield)

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