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Saturday 3 March 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz (March 3rd)

We all love Boxing and so it can be heartbreaking when you hear of some of the terrible injuries that can come out of this sport.

This past week Scott Westgarth sadly passed away hours after winning his Light-Heavyweight bout in Doncaster and the whole Boxing world did come together. His post-fight interview highlighted what Boxing can mean to the fighters and the fans with Westgarth openly admitting he continues fighting for the love of the sport rather than chasing World Titles.

It's the reason I can't stomach people describing Boxers as 'cowards' or battering them on social media when they come up short of expectations. No one who steps into a Boxing ring and is willing to take punches to the face can be a 'coward' and you can only hope the Westgarth family will be able to grieve and then celebrate the life of Scott.


It is a hard sport where terrible injuries can occur, but the love for this sport can be hard to put aside even in the light of horrible incidents. Boxing gives so much to so many and Westgarth's love for the sport shined through his final interview, the same love everyone involved in the sport either as participants or spectators will speak about.


This weekend we have a huge number of pivotal fights with the main event coming from the Heavyweight Division as Deontay Wilder defends his WBC belt against Luis Ortiz.

I just hope everyone is healthy at the end of the night as we look forward to some tremendous fights.

The Boxing of interest begins in Sheffield before shifting to New York where Madison Square Garden and the Barclays Center hosts two separate cards of real note. All of the top fights this weekend could open the door for even bigger ones later in 2018 as long as the 'names' can all come through with wins which is far from guaranteed.


I didn't have any success with the two Boxing Picks made last weekend, but 2018 has been a good year so far and on Saturday I have a number of selections from a very busy, and fun looking night across three venues.


Lenroy Thomas vs David Allen
The two main undercard bouts on the Sheffield bill topped by the return of Kell Brook both look fascinating for different reasons.

Gamal Yafai vs Gavin McDonnell provides the chief support in what is a very close fight and certainly closer than the layers are indicating. I was close to picking McDonnell to win that fight with his experience getting the better of the younger Yafai brother, but I think there are enough doubts about how much McDonnell has left in the tank to leave that alone.

However I will have a selection from the Heavyweight rematch between Lenroy Thomas and David Allen for the Commonwealth Heavyweight Title. Back in May 2017 it was Thomas who got the better of Allen in a Split Decision win, but Allen has got his request from Eddie Hearn to have a rematch.

Allen was criticised by Hearn for some of the preparation for the first fight, but has looked in much better shape in the build to this one. He looks like he will be lighter and more focused on a fight which may be a defining one for Allen and one where a loss could see him retire even at this young age.

Hearn was close to losing all faith in Allen but has given him this opportunity and I do think Allen will take it. However Thomas showed enough slickness and resilience when they fought at Bramall Lane to think he can cause problems for the one-dimensional Allen in this one and I would not be surprised to see the cards read again.

Thomas is the better boxer and so he may do enough to earn the Decision again, but I think beating Allen on the cards will be as difficult as it was last May when Thomas was given a Split Decision in a fight most thought he won comfortably. I was close to picking that to be the outcome of this one, but I think Allen's focus looks better and he might just bully his way to the win.

Finding a stoppage may be difficult for both men- I don't think Allen is very good and Thomas is slick enough to stay out of trouble for the distance of the fight. On the other hand Allen is a very tough man and so being stopped is not something I envision for a fighter who went the distance with Dillian Whyte and was stopped very late, and on his feet, by Luis Ortiz.

The layers tend to agree that the cards will be needed and I will back that to be the outcome of this one.



Kell Brook vs Sergey Rabchenko
Everything about the Sheffield card has been built around the return of Kell Brook who has suffered two devastating defeats.

There is no disgrace in losing to either Gennady Golovkin or Errol Spence Jr, but fracturing both eye sockets, first the right and then the left, in those losses is a difficult place to come back from.

Kell Brook has decided to move up to the 154 limit in the Light-Middleweight Division having struggled to make 147 for some time, but not wanting to give up the IBF World Title he worked so hard to win. Spence ripped that away from Brook at Bramall Lane and the Sheffield native admitted he regretted draining his body to make that weight again, especially after coming back down from Middleweight having challenged Golovkin.

It is an interesting time for the move up considering long time rival Amir Khan has joined the Matchroom stable and potentially opened up the chance for him and Brook to finally get it on. That's still not out of the question, but Brook has to prove himself immediately in a tough Division where the World Champions look like quality operators.

Of course the promotion of the card will speak about how difficult Sergey Rabchenko should be as an opponent and he is well enough known in Boxing circles in the United Kingdom to push that forward. However Rabchenko was stopped by Tony Harrison 2016 and also lost to Anthony Mudine on a Decision when he has stepped his level of opponents.

Prior to the injury issues, Brook would have been considered a step above this kind of level of competition and I do think he is going to come in and show there is something left in the tank. I won't be surprised if Rabchenko demonstrates toughness and Brook may have to come through some sticky moments as he shakes off the ring rust of being out of the ring for ten months.

Eventually I would expect to see Brook beginning to find some timing with his patented 'chocolate brownies' and I can see him producing enough big shots to find a stoppage in the second half of this fight. Fighting for the WBC Silver Belt in this bout will also mean Brook is immediately placed in a strong position in the World Rankings at this weight with a win, although I am convinced Eddie Hearn's aim is to get him and Amir Khan to produce a couple of wins before setting up a grudge fight potentially at the end of 2018.

Brook can do his part and I will back him to stop Rabchenko in the second half of this fight. His opponent will likely get some Rounds under Brook's belt with his toughness, but I can see the Brook power wearing down Rabchenko for the stoppage either via corner or through the referee.


Josh Taylor vs Winston Campos
There is a lot of excitement around Josh Taylor and many are expecting him to move up to World level in the Light-Welterweight Division which has something of a vacuum to fill at the very top.

Terence Crawford unified the Division before making his move up to Welterweight to chase some of the big names in Boxing, while Mikey Garcia is having his first fight in this weight class next week but still has unfinished business in the Lightweight ranks.

Some of those World Titles that were vacated by Crawford will be in the hands of fighters in the weeks ahead, including potentially Terry Flanagan from Manchester, but for now Taylor will continue what has been a big rise since turning pro in 2015.

There is much warranted hype around Taylor and I am a big fan.

Becoming the first man to stop Miguel Vazquez in another step up in level of competition highlighted what many expect from Taylor and that is a World Champion in the making.

This weekend he has to take on a replacement in Winston Campos who comes in after Humberto Sato was injured.

Campos may not have lost since back in 2013, but this is a big step up from the recent level of opponents he has faced. He has been fighting back in Nicaragua against opponents way short of what Taylor brings to the table and travelling abroad to take on a talent like this is a big ask for Campos.

Being a southpaw means he could be awkward, but two of the three losses Campos has suffered have come by stoppage including his last loss to Ismael Barroso who is perhaps best known in the United Kingdom for losing to Anthony Crolla after beating Kevin Mitchell.

Taylor has power and I expect him to turn on the style against the kind of opponent I would expect him to dismiss. He might take a couple of Rounds to find his range against the southpaw, but I would think Taylor is able to get Campos out of there somewhere around the Fourth or Fifth Round. Backing Taylor to win this one between somewhere from the Fourth Round to the Sixth Round looks the call and worthy of an interest.



Dmitry Bivol vs Sullivan Barrera
There are many who are tipping Dmitry Bivol to take over as 'the man' in the Light-Heavyweight Division but there is no doubt what a stacked Division this is.

This may be the biggest test Bivol has had as he faces Sullivan Barrera who still has just the sole loss on his resume which came against Andre Ward. Barrera has since won his last four fights in a row and his wins over Vyacheslav Shabranskyy and Joe Smith look decent enough on paper.

However Barrera was knocked down in both of those wins and he is now facing an opponent who has been blessed with power and who has not been taken beyond the Fourth Round in any of his last four wins. Bivol has ten KO's in his twelve wins, but Barrera has plenty of experience which will test the WBA Light-Heavyweight Champion and see exactly how true the hype around him really is.

It won't be a surprise that this is the toughest fight Bivol will have had in what will be his thirteenth professional bout. So far he has managed the step up in levels effectively and I do think he has the power to hurt Barrera and, importantly, complete the stoppage when he does get him in trouble.

Those early Knock Downs against Shabranskyy and Smith are a concern for Barrera especially as Bivol will look to get after him early, but I also think the latter is a capable boxer who can bide his time.

He may need to do that if Barrera decides to try and take Bivol into the second half of the fight and test his stamina, but I think Bivol will be comfortable in the fight and can show a different side to the way he approaches things in the ring. Being able to start outboxing a Cuban like Andre Ward did in his Unanimous Decision over Barrera will certainly show there is more to Bivol than simply a 'search and destroy' attitude.

Ultimately though I do think the power will end up being a telling factor in the second half of the fight as Bivol is able to break down the older Barrera. The Cuban has been down too often for my liking and I think Bivol will end up finishing the job to become the first man to stop Barrera, although it may come after taking away the heart of his opponent.

Backing Bivol to force another stoppage looks the way to go, but I think it may come in the second half of this World Title fight as he first outboxes and then powers through Barrera.


Andre Dirrell vs Jose Uzcategui
This is a rematch of a fight that took place back in May 2017.

Oh, it's a rematch between Andre Dirrell and Jose Uzcategui and not Dirrell's uncle and Uzcategui just to be clear.

A controversial ending to the first fight was made all the more memorable when Dirrell's uncle landed a couple of sucker punches on Uzcategui after the fight had ended in response to the Colombian being disqualified for hitting Dirrell after the bell in the Eighth Round.

Uzcategui was ahead on the cards at the time and looked to be the stronger boxer and that is why he comes into the rematch as a pretty strong favourite to win the fight.

I've never been a fan of Dirrell but he is a slick boxer and I think working with Virgil Hunter would have been good for him. Hunter has a winning attitude that should get the best out of Dirrell who has perhaps underachieved in his career despite some high profile fights he has been involved in.

His only two professional losses have come at the hands of Brits Carl Froch and James DeGale and Dirrell may feel he was on the short end of a couple of bad cards in those fights. Even then the failure to win a World Title would have hurt Dirrell more and this is his chance to at least get that part right in a tough Super-Middleweight Division where some big fights could await for the winner.

Most had to have been impressed with the way Uzcategui fought the first time out and I think he can be disappointed that he didn't win the fight which could easily have ended on a Technical Decision rather than the disqualification. I imagine he will look to put the pressure on Dirrell from the off in this one too, but I think the American would have learned a lot from the last fight and having Virgil Hunter in his corner should be a positive.

Dirrell should be able to know how to better deal with Uzcategui in this rematch and I think he will end up boxing his way to a success and taking the IBF World Title at the end of the bout. Having a small interest on Dirrell to find a way to a points win as the underdog is my selection from the chief support on the Deontay Wilder-Luis Ortiz card.


Sergey Kovalev vs Igor Mikhalkin
Everything about the card in Madison Square Garden is to try and set up a huge Light-Heavyweight Unification fight at the end of 2018 and the headline act is the former kingpin of this Division Sergey Kovalev.

No matter how you feel about his two defeats to Andre Ward (I thought Kovalev sneaked the first fight and was on his way to a loss in the second before the controversial ending) this is all about rebuilding for Kovalev.

He remains a big draw in this Division and Kovalev was able to pick up one of the belts lost to Ward in his last fight after the belts were all vacated by the American heading into retirement. Kovalev defends the WBO World Title against Igor Mikhalkin having dismissed the challenge of Vyacheslav Shabranskyy very easily in his first fight after the Ward duo.

Kovalev didn't face a lot of resistance that night as he crushed Shabranskyy in a couple of Rounds, but Mikhalkin is supposed to bring in more durability.

Mikhalkin has only been beaten once professionally, and he has a couple of decent recent wins which will be pushed forward. However I don't think he is a legitimate threat to Krusher and I very much think Kovalev breaks him down and forces the stoppage in this fight.

That is what Kovalev did to the durable Canadian Jean Pascal having stopped him in the Seventh and Eighth Round in his two fights against him. Comparing Pascal to Mikhalkin is wrong perhaps, but I do think the latter is going up a couple of levels compared with previous opponents and I also feel he has been given to Kovalev to showcase the latter and have him headline a huge Unification in the Light-Heavyweight Division later this year.

You have to respect what Kovalev is able to do and his power is still there which means the end of this fight could come very early if Mikhalkin's durability is overstated. He simply hasn't fought someone who can hit anything like as hard as Kovalev, although the southpaw stance may jus take a couple of Rounds for the favourite to figure out.

Once Kovalev figures it out I expect his punishing style being too much for Mikhalkin and another stoppage to be added to the record. I am looking for Kovalev to get this done in the mid-Rounds of this one and backing him to win anywhere from the Fifth to the Eighth Round looks about right.


Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz
It has been described as the biggest Heavyweight fight on American soil since Lennox Lewis last defended his World Title against Vitali Klitschko back in 2003.

I have to agree with two of the top four/five Heavyweight fighters on the planet meeting in Brooklyn for the WBC Heavyweight Championship.

Deontay Wilder has long been criticised for a lacklustre resume, but I like the brash American and I think he has not always been dealt a good hand. Having a couple of live contenders fall out of bouts after failing drugs tests is not his problem and Wilder has managed to dismiss any other challenger without too much fuss.

One of those who ended a potential fight with a failure of a drugs test is Luis Ortiz, although his explanation has been good enough to get him back into a position to fight for the World Title months later.

No matter how this fight goes, I just hope everyone is willing to give Wilder his credit for getting with someone as dangerous as Ortiz especially when he didn't have to do this. Everyone is quick to downplay achievements from boxers after the fact, but there is no doubt what a threat Ortiz is considering the number of people out there picking him to win.

Ortiz has looked in great shape, but rumours of a hand injury will be a concern for the Cuban.

From a technical point of view you have to feel Ortiz is going to be capable of outboxing Wilder and the counter punching ability will make him a threat in this bout. He is tough, but Wilder should have the edge when it comes to athleticism and speed, while I also very much believe in the one shot power the American possesses.

I do think Wilder is going to approach this like he did when he first fought Bermane Stiverne- Wilder showcased his boxing ability and avoided being dragged into a fight to win by a comfortable margin on the cards. While he won't be able to completely outbox Ortiz the same way, I do think Wilder is not going to want to get in and blast the Cuban from the ring like he did the second time Stiverne stood in front of him.

The bottom line is Ortiz is dangerous and I expect Wilder to take his time and try and drain the energy out of a fighter that is allegedly a few years older than the 38 listed. Ortiz is dangerous and I am not buying the poorer recent performances as I question is motivation in those fights.

In this one he is highly motivated and there was a time where I thought Ortiz was the man in the Heavyweight Division after Tyson Fury deposed Wladimir Klitschko and then had his own troubles. Two years ago you may even have favoured Ortiz in this fight, but I don't like the inactivity for this older fighter and I also believe Wilder has improved.

I am looking for Wilder to show all of the experience he has learned and steer clear of early exchanges and try and drain the Ortiz energy before teeing off later as the fight develops. He might not earn the highlight reel stoppage like he did in the win over Stiverne, but I can see Wilder just overwhelming a tired Ortiz late in the fight.

It'll either be the late stoppage or a 116-112 kind of decision for Wilder who can then go back to calling out Anthony Joshua even if I don't believe that fight is going to happen before 2019. I fancy a referee or corner stoppage in the Championship Rounds as Ortiz begins to ship a little too much punishment and Wilder can claim the biggest win of his professional career.

King Kong came to New York and gave a decent account of himself before being cornered and seeing fatigue end his resistance. I expect that to happen here and backing Wilder late is the call in a fight that many decent boxing brains see an upset occurring.

Just don't be 'that guy' who claims Ortiz was over-rated if Wilder does win the fight.

MY PICKS: Lenroy Thomas-David Allen Fight Go the Distance @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Kell Brook to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Josh Taylor to Win Between 4-6 @ 2.87 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dmitry Bivol to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andre Dirrell to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Sergey Kovalev to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.75 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Deontay Wilder to Win Between 9-12 @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 7-5, + 10.28 Units (20 Units Staked, + 51.40% Yield)

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