The Tennis Picks from Thursday were all being played at the ATP and WTA tournaments in Acapulco so I will add the 'weekly totals' to this thread on Friday morning.
Any Picks from either the Sao Paulo or Acapulco tournaments from the matches scheduled to be played on Friday will also be added at that time, but I will begin with a single pick from the two ATP Dubai Semi Final matches that are set to be played.
Filip Krajinovic + 2.5 games v Lucas Pouille: Some times you have to look in the mirror and admit where you are wrong and my feelings about Lucas Pouille and his limited game have to be put to one side.
Regardless of what the numbers say about Pouille, he seems to just find a way to hang around in matches and I have to give credit to the clear mental resolve he demonstrates on a weekly basis on the Tour.
After reaching the Final in Marseille last week, Pouille is into the Semi Final in Dubai and he is perhaps the favourite to go on and win the tournament. However I don't think he will have an easy day in the office against Filip Krajinovic who has flown up the World Rankings thanks to some very strong results at Challenger level before upsetting his way through to the Paris Masters Final.
Krajinovic has clearly earned some confidence from that run and he has been playing well enough in 2018 to feel he can keep this match very close. The serve has been important for both players, but it is Krajinovic who has displayed the better returning ability and he should have beaten Pouille in Marseille last week.
Like his opponent, Krajinovic has backed up a decent week with another good showing in Dubai and the numbers suggest he could overturn the defeat to Pouille last week. As long as he serves to the standard he has produced this week and in 2018, I like Krajinovic to keep this close at the least by taking one set, but there is also every chance he can upset the Frenchman through to the Dubai Final too.
Horacio Zeballos v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The layers are finding it hard to separate these two players at the Sao Paulo Quarter Final stage and I do think it has the making of a tight match.
Both Horacio Zeballos and Rogerio Dutra Silva have had a couple of strong wins this week, although the form has to go to Dutra Silva who has been a little more dominant in his wins.
However it is Zeballos who has the stand out win having beaten Gael Monfils in three tough sets on Thursday. That is the second time this week that Zeballos has had to win a deciding set and I do wonder if there is going to be a little fatigue which can put him in a tough spot in this match.
Dutra Silva has had it much easier with back to back straight sets wins and he is playing with some confidence. I do think the home crowd will also give Dutra Silva a boost and I am not surprised the layers are finding it hard to separate the players.
Both have served pretty well on the clay courts, but it is Zeballos who has the slight edge and I think he will be able to create a few opportunities against the serve. It is likely to be another match that goes the distance for Zeballos, but he has beaten a home favourite here in Sao Paulo already this week and I will look for him to overcome any fatigue and work his way through to the Semi Final.
Nicolas Jarry + 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: He may have reached the Final in Quito last month, but Albert Ramos-Vinolas should be disappointed with his performances during the South American Golden Swing.
He has lost some poor matches and is just 2-2 from his last three tournaments on the clay courts which should be his favoured surface. Ramos-Vinolas has perhaps not returned as well as he would have liked to make life a little easier for himself, but he should be motivated to earn revenge over Nicolas Jarry who beat him in Rio last week.
Jarry went down in the Semi Final in Rio to eventual winner Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but he has bounced back this week and reached a third Quarter Final during the Golden Swing.
My one concern for Jarry has to be the amount of tennis he has played over the last two weeks especially as he has needed a final set decider to win both matches this week. However Jarry has been serving very, very well for the most part and that has allowed him to take his chances on the break points as opponents have just been put under some pressure.
I would expect Ramos-Vinolas to be better in this match than he was in his defeat to Jarry in Rio, but I still think it is worth taking the games with the strong serving Chilean. His World Ranking is not the best, but Jarry has been playing above that level and I will take the games and look for him to keep this one close.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: I was pretty surprised by the dominant win Jared Donaldson produced over Feliciano Lopez in the Quarter Final, but matching that level is asking a lot from the young American.
Donaldson has been returning well so far in Acapulco, but I would be surprised if he is able to have as much success as he did against Lopez when he faces Kevin Anderson. The South African has been very solid again this week as he reaches yet another Semi Final in 2018 and I think Anderson deserves a lot of credit for the performances which have taken him into the top ten of the World Rankings.
The Anderson serve has been a potent weapon throughout 2018 and it was the difference maker against Hyeon Chung in the Quarter Final too. It has also meant Anderson can approach return games with some confidence and he managed better numbers than his season stats for the third match in a row.
There has been a clear decline in the return numbers in each passing Round though and Donaldson does have a very good serve which has been working well. However this is a player who has still got a tendency to throw in a loose service game from time to time and I think that could be a huge blow to his chances of beating Anderson.
Donaldson has some decent return numbers thanks to the way he has been playing this week with three very strong wins. Those return numbers are impressive, but the rest of 2018 has seen him have some difficulties and the win over Lopez showed return numbers far greater than those produced in his other matches against top 50 Ranked players in 2018.
I will look for Anderson to use his serve to put the pressure on Donaldson which Lopez failed to produce in the Quarter Final. That should help Anderson reach yet another Final in 2018 and I will look for him to cover this number.
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: The defending Champion Lesia Tsurenko crushed Kristina Mladenovic in the Quarter Final on Thursday and she has been in very strong form all week in Acapulco.
It is clearly a tournament and conditions that Tsurenko has enjoyed and the level being produced at the moment should be too much for Daria Gavrilova who had a much tougher path through to the Semi Final on Thursday.
The problem for Gavrilova is her serve has been vulnerable and the way Tsurenko has been returning it would not be a surprise to me if she actually won more points against the serve than Gavrilova is able to hold onto. When you begin to feel that has a decent chance of happening, Tsurenko looks a decent favourite to back in this one.
I am more confident with the pick considering how well Tsurenko has been serving so far this week too and she may be able to restrict what Gavrilova is able to do on the return. The Australian has been returning very well this week and it has helped her through difficult moments in matches, but a confident Tsurenko may make it that much harder to fight her way back into the match once she moves ahead.
I will look for Tsurenko to have the better of this match either side of the court and I think she is going to move through to the Final with a cover of this handicap.
MY PICKS: Filip Krajinovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Horacio Zeballos @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-12, - 6.14 Units (44 Units Staked, - 13.95% Yield)
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