Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 1-5)

In a couple of years we could be just about coming out of a Winter Break if the Premier League proposals are improved, but for now all of the teams in the top flight in England will be getting ready for another important round of fixtures.

I've started this thread on a Thursday to cover the Arsenal vs Manchester City fixture which is being made up from the weekend when the two teams met in the League Cup Final.

Arsenal would have seen the first silverware of the season slip away on Sunday and also their chances of a top four finish look as bleak as the weather to say the least.

The same could potentially be said for Chelsea who blew a 0-1 lead at Manchester United last weekend and have to revisit Manchester to take on the runaway leaders on Sunday. With the teams above them all having what look like winnable League games, Chelsea could find themselves 5 points off the top four with nine games remaining at the end of the weekend.

Antonio Conte is back under pressure and Chelsea have a big month ahead which includes hosting Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League as well as a trip to Barcelona after this game at Manchester City. Those three games may just determine how this season is going to end for Conte and Chelsea before what looks an inevitable parting in the summer.

The likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United have to take advantage of Chelsea's tough fixture this weekend. It is very important to the latter two teams who meet at Old Trafford next Saturday as the race for the Champions League places begins to heat up.

This weekend is also a big one at the bottom of the table with Southampton hosting Stoke City the biggest game for those teams threatened with relegation. It really feels like the losing team could spiral out of the Division in that fixture which only increases the importance of the three points on offer on another big weekend in England.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: The worst thing that could happen to Arsene Wenger and Arsenal is conceding early in this Premier League game on Thursday as they try and get the fans back behind them after a poor showing in the League Cup Final.

It may have been a different story if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had not missed what looked a big opportunity in the first ten minutes of the Cup Final, but there was not a lot of belief in the Arsenal ranks once they went 2-0 down.

Bouncing back against Manchester City won't be easy with Pep Guardiola unlikely to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven. I can imagine some defensive changes are made to make sure Vincent Kompany is fit for the Chelsea game on Sunday, while the likes of Bernado Silva, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus could also freshen attacking areas, but Manchester City will bring a strong squad to town.

Their recent away performances have not been as strong as Guardiola may have liked and that does make Manchester City look short odds to win here at the Emirates Stadium. As poor as Arsenal were on Sunday, I do expect a reaction at home where they have a strong record this season and I would be stunned if they waved the white flag as quickly at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal certainly can cause problems for Manchester City at the back, but the bigger concern for the fans will be how poor Arsenal have looked defensively. It would be a huge surprise if they are able to contain Manchester City and I am going back to the same market which only just let me down on Sunday.

Namely I expect to see four or more goals shared out.

Neither defence is watertight and Arsenal games at the Emirates Stadium against the teams above them have produced fireworks so far this season. The League games against Manchester United (1-3), Liverpool (3-3) and Chelsea (2-2) have all produced four or more goals and Arsenal showed considerable fight in all of those games despite being behind in all of those.

I expect a little more from Arsenal going forward at home, while Manchester City will play the same way and look to cause panic in the backline for the home team. As long as Arsenal don't give up in the same manner they did at Wembley Stadium, chances should come through the ninety minutes and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.


Burnley v Everton Pick: This may be the opening live Premier League game of the weekend but everything is pointing to a tight encounter with few goals scored.

There are times when that expectation can be blown away by an early goal which will produce an entertaining game, but Burnley and Everton will both focus on being tight and tough to beat. With Sean Dyche and Sam Allardyce having a week to organise the defences in the manner they would like, it could be difficult for the creative players to really show off their talents and goals may come at a premium.

Burnley home games have simply not featured a lot of goals this season with just twenty-one scored here in 14 Premier League games. Late goals have seen the last couple end 1-1 and that is the only scoreline that really worries me when it comes to my pick from this fixture.

Backing under 1.5 goals looks to be the call with only late goals preventing that happening in the last 3 Burnley home games. The team continue to be tough to break down and more than half of their 14 Premier League home games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out.

Everton have been poorer defensively away from home which is a concern, while they have some talented players in the attacking areas that could give Burnley problems. However the defeat last weekend at Watford showed an Everton team more focused on getting things right defensively which affected their attacking intent and I am going to have a small interest in one or fewer goals scored here.

Some may want to keep the 1-1 score on their side, which is a real player having occurred in 3 of the last 4 Burnley games, but I will look for both teams to be tight enough to prevent a huge outlay of goals in this one.


Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: There is still something for Leicester City to aim for from a strong finish in the Premier League but they were lacking some ideas in the 1-1 home draw with Stoke City last weekend. The Foxes improved once they equalised, but the focus has to be on winning the FA Cup now they have reached the Quarter Final Round.

However there is every chance 7th place in the Premier League will offer Leicester City the best chance for a return to European Football next season and they should be able to give Bournemouth a few problems in this one.

I don't doubt Bournemouth can have their successes too if Leicester City are as flat as they were last weekend. Bournemouth have been scoring plenty of goals in their recent games although defensively there remain some problems which comes with the style of play Eddie Howe wishes to employ.

Recent Leicester City home games have not featured as many goals as you may think, but I think they can get one more than last weekend when they host Bournemouth this weekend. The away side are capable of punishing Leicester City if they defend as they did against Stoke City, but I also expect more from the home team and will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Southampton v Stoke City Pick: A true relegation six pointer looks to be set to be played at St Mary's on Saturday when Southampton host Stoke City and there is a sense that the winning team can use this as a springboard to avoid relegation while the losing team would be in huge trouble.

That means tension in the air and that could restrict the way both Southampton and Stoke City are able to express themselves.

Both teams have had some positive results of late, but the problem has been turning some of those into wins. Stoke City may be particularly concerned having missed a penalty for a home win over Brighton, and also leading at both Bournemouth and Leicester City without picking up the three points.

However they have looked a little more solid under Paul Lambert's guidance and only a couple of mistakes have let them down. They are facing a Southampton team who have not scored more than once at home in any of their last 7 Premier League games going back to November and Stoke City may feel they can restrict the home team which could lead to an upset here.

Southampton look very short for a team who have not won a League game at home since the 4-1 win over Everton in November, especially as they failed to beat Huddersfield Town and Brighton in that run. Stoke City are a similar kind of team who will look to frustrate the home team and then look for their classy players like Xherdan Shaqiri to create something.

The lack of wins for Southampton makes it hard to think they can win this fixture comfortably and backing Stoke City on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in a narrow loss looks the call. Stoke City have not played well away from home for much of the season, but they have led in their last 2 away League games and getting in front will likely make it very tough for Southampton to beat them.

The home team haven't had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games at St Mary's so I will take Stoke City with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Tottenham Hotspur v Huddersfield Town Pick: Finishing in the top four and having a place back in the Champions League is very important for Tottenham Hotspur who are set to move into New White Hart Lane in August.

The late goal at Crystal Palace last weekend has helped Tottenham Hotspur move into the top four and they have a chance to put 5 points between themselves and 5th placed Chelsea who travel to Manchester City on Sunday.

Hosting Huddersfield Town at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have won 6 in a row in all competitions should be the kind of fixture Spurs are able to win comfortably enough.

The only doubt I really have is that Tottenham Hotspur play the Second Leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie against Juventus during the week with that tie finely balanced at 2-2 after the First Leg in Turin. The fans will be distracted by looking ahead to a big Champions League night so the key for Mauricio Pochettino is making sure his players are not overlooking a Huddersfield Town team who have won back to back Premier League games.

If they are Huddersfield Town can be organised enough to cause some problems, although they have not been capable of really shutting down the very best teams in the Premier League. There is no doubt that Tottenham Hotspur are one of those and their big names were rested in the win over Rochdale and I do like the home team to produce a comfortable win on the day.

Huddersfield Town did win at The Hawthorns last weekend, but they had been struggling away from home in the Premier League prior to that. Conceding goals has been an issue for Huddersfield Town and Tottenham Hotspur have been scoring plenty of goals at Wembley Stadium in recent months.

The Terriers have played 8 Premier League games against the top six clubs this season so far and they have conceded at least twice in 7 of those. They have lost 7 of those 8 games and 6 of those losses have come by two or more goals with 4 of those coming by three or more margins.

I would anticipate Tottenham Hotspur are able to win by at least a two goal margin on Saturday, but I am going to back them on the Asian Handicap to perhaps go one better. At worst I would expect the stake to be returned, but Liverpool and Arsenal have beaten Huddersfield Town by three or more goals in home games this season and I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to do the same.

That would be ideal preparation for the Champions League Second Leg against Juventus on Wednesday.


Watford v West Brom Pick: This could be it as far as West Brom's future as a Premier League club is concerned as well as Alan Pardew's short time managing at The Hawthorns.

Pardew was reportedly criticised by Chris Brunt for the poor tactics employed in the 1-2 defeat to Huddersfield Town last weekend which has put West Brom in a really deep hole as far as survival is concerned. The fans were also very unhappy with the performance and the board have seemingly given Pardew one game to prove that he can turn things around in the final 10 Premier League games.

It is a big ask for West Brom even if they change manager and they head to Vicarage Road where Watford have won back to back League games. The home team have battled through a deep injury list which added Gerard Deulofeu to it last weekend, but Watford have looked much more settled with Javi Gracia than they were under Marco Silva during his final days in charge.

However this has to be the kind of fixture that Alan Pardew would have targeted for West Brom to try and get out of trouble. The same could be said last weekend against Huddersfield Town at home, but defensively there are too many goals being conceded by West Brom.

The Baggies have created some big chances of their own though and I think they will have chances in this one too. Even though Watford earned a clean sheet last weekend, they have been defensively poor at times and games at Vicarage Road have seen plenty of goals shared out prior to the 1-0 win over Everton.

I expect both teams will have their chances to score in this fixture, and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big price. West Brom games have involved plenty of goals of late and they can't sit back in this one, while Watford have been scoring and conceding goals for fun at home prior to last weekend.

Earlier this season these teams shared out four goals, but I will simply look for at least three to be scored in this one.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: A cold snap has hit the United Kingdom over the last few days, but Liverpool and Newcastle United can combine to warm up the fans with an entertaining game of football on Saturday afternoon.

Games at Anfield have certainly not been short of goals in recent weeks, but Rafa Benitez will try and set Newcastle United up to frustrate his former club. That looks a long shot when you see how Newcastle United have defended away from home and instead the better option may be to try and get up further up the pitch and try and threaten Liverpool.

That has been made tougher with the likes of Jonjo Shelvey, Dwight Gayle and Islam Slimani not expected to be involved this weekend. However Newcastle United will still believe they have enough to at least cause problems for a Liverpool team who have not had a home clean sheet in their last 6 at Anfield in all competitions.

On the other hand, Liverpool have been very good in the final third in recent weeks which has seen the team score at least twice in their last 7 at Anfield. They will look to get Newcastle United on the back foot very early in this one and then look to counter their visitors when they do take some risks, and Liverpool will note how effective the other top clubs have been against Newcastle United at home.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all scored at least three times in home wins over Newcastle United this season, although The Magpies have scored in all 3 of those League games too. They could play a part in this one, but ultimately it would be a surprise if Liverpool don't win the game considering the kind of form they have been producing.

Backing at least four goals looks to be the play at odds against though and it is only a slightly shorter price than backing Liverpool to win a high-scoring game with that many goals shared out. It covers a high-scoring draw like Tottenham Hotspur earned at Anfield recently, while West Brom won 2-3 here in the FA Cup at the end of January which has to be respected.

Of course I do give a strong lean towards a Liverpool win, but they could concede on the way to help reach the four goal mark. All 3 Newcastle United away Premier League games at teams in the current top five have ended with at least four goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome at odds against.


Brighton v Arsenal Pick: Arsene Wenger looked completely dejected in his post-match interview after watching his Arsenal team being outclassed by Manchester City for the second time in the space of a few days.

Questions have been raised about the future of Wenger again and the players have to pick themselves up from their confidence taking a battering worse than the United Kingdom has been from the 'Beast from the East'.

A poor away record in the Premier League doesn't inspire a lot of belief in Arsenal doing that this weekend even though they travel to the south coast to take on a Brighton team fighting relegation. However Brighton have picked up their form of late and 1 loss from their last 8 games in all competitions at the Amex Stadium makes them dangerous.

Brighton have begun to find goals from their play and have recorded 4 wins from their last 5 games at the Amex Stadium. They have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions while Brighton have beaten West Ham United 3-1 and Swansea City 4-1 in their last couple of Premier League games here and will feel they can pose questions for an Arsenal backline which is far from being watertight.

Those defensive issues were highlighted in Arsenal's defeats at Bournemouth and Swansea City in the Premier League since the turn of the calendar year. With the confidence Brighton have been playing with, they will certainly feel they can create chances against Arsenal, although I also expect a lot better from Arsenal when they go forward.

With the attacking players Arsenal can call upon, they will be able to get at a Brighton defence which has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 6 at home in all competitions. The likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have all visited the Amex Stadium and scored at least twice and I do think Arsenal will have their chances in this one too.

Picking a winner isn't easy when you consider the form of the two teams- I would have favoured Brighton to avoid defeat if they had a better record against the top six clubs this season, but they concede too many goals in those games. On the other hand Arsenal have struggled away from home all season and instead I am backing at least three goals to be shared out.

That has happened in the last 6 Brighton home games in all competitions, while 5 of Arsenal's last 8 away games have also seen that number reached. Neither defence will be confident of keeping a clean sheet and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The Premier League title might be heading to Manchester City without too much fuss in the weeks ahead, but the other top clubs will be interested spectators as the race for the top four heats up.

I have little doubt that the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will be looking for a favour from the runaway League leaders and Manchester City are playing well enough to think they can provide that.

The only concern for Manchester City has to be the fact they have played two games since Chelsea finished up at Old Trafford last Sunday, but Pep Guardiola did get to see his team coast through the second half of their win at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. That should mean fatigue is not an issue for a team who have won 12 in a row at home in all competitions and their last 13 Premier League games here.

Chelsea could play a part with the performances they have produced against Barcelona and Manchester United, but failing to win games they led is a blow to the confidence. Worse still is losing at Old Trafford last weekend which has put their top four ambitions in a difficult spot especially if Chelsea fail to get something here.

It is hard to see them turning around form which has seen Chelsea lose their last 3 away games in all competitions, even though they led in a couple of those. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Willian and Pedro capable of causing problems for their potentially tired hosts, Chelsea can play a part in this one but ultimately their away form has been a concern and I think Manchester City will win this one.

Defensively Chelsea will have to be a lot better than they have been in recent away games if they are going to avoid the loss, but I do think they can score here too.

The last 3 Chelsea away games have all ended in losses despite scoring though and I will back Manchester City to win a game featuring three or more goals on Sunday.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: There was evidence of Roy Hodgson's frustration in the 0-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the television cameras picking up the former England manager banging his head against his seat after the late goal conceded by his Crystal Palace team.

Injuries have really hurt the Hodgson options and it comes at a time of the season when Crystal Palace have some big games coming thick and fast. Even a full strength Crystal Palace team would be an underdog in those games, but one hit with the long injury list like this one will really have a hard time.

One thing Hodgson will insist upon is hard work and defensive discipline and that almost worked in their narrow defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. He will be looking to frustrate a Manchester United team who have lost back to back away Premier League games at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United without scoring, while goals have generally been something of an issue for Jose Mourinho's men having failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions.

However Manchester United should come into this Monday night kick off with some confidence after coming from behind to beat Chelsea last Sunday. Going behind and winning games is not something that has been that common for Manchester United in recent years, but doing so will have given the players a boost ahead of another big month.

This is a tough test to back that up with Crystal Palace being a tough team to play at Selhurst Park, even with the injuries in the squad. The absence of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Crystal Palace and games without him have seen the team struggle to pose a consistent goal threat.

That may be a problem on Monday evening too and I think Manchester United will be able to create the chances that Tottenham Hotspur did here. A better day from Harry Kane would have led to a comfortable win for Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the big opportunities that came his way, and I think Manchester United will be able to find a goal or two here.

Ultimately they will look to keep Crystal Palace from building too much without Zaha and potentially Yohan Cabaye. That takes away some real creativity from the Crystal Palace team and Manchester United can win this one with a clean sheet.

MY PICKS: Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Everton Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Newcastle United Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)