Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 13th)

Monday proved to be a rough day with two selections never looking that comfortable and one being in a dominant position before losing all composure in the middle of the second set.

It has to be described as an irritating day in the office but I have two more days of Picks unless Tuesday goes in a similar direction to Monday.

We are moving onto the Fourth Round in the WTA Indian Wells event and completing the Third Round of the ATP Indian Wells tournament. That means there is plenty of tennis scheduled in Indian Wells on Tuesday and that has also offered up a few more selections compared with Monday.


Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: This has been a good tournament for both players, but it does feel like Maria Sakkari has overachieved to get to this Fourth Round.

On the other hand, Naomi Osaka seems to be fulfilling the obvious potential she has and I am going to back the young star to get the better of her Greek opponent and make it through to the Quarter Final.

Both players have been very much relying on the serve to set up the rest of their game and both have produced solid numbers on that side to give them the chance to win matches. However a key difference between Sakkari and Osaka is the return of serve and I think that is where Osaka will be able to separate from a tough opponent in this match.

The superior returning should mean Osaka is able to present herself with a few more opportunities to break serve during the course of the match and I think it will also give her every chance of covering this number of games.

It won't be easy if Sakkari continues to play with the confidence she has built up over the last week, but Osaka should be riding a crest of a wave herself and I will back her to come through with a solid looking win.


Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: A day after beating younger sister Serena Williams in impressive style, Venus Williams will return to the court to face Anastasija Sevastova in a contrast of styles.

The match up between the aggression of Venus Williams and the movement and defensive skills of Sevastova is a fascinating one, but I do feel much of this match will be on the racquet of the American.

Venus Williams has enjoyed the conditions which have allowed her to really time her return of serve and she should be able to handle the Sevastova serve. This serve is not as intimidating as Serena Williams and I don't think it is as strong as Sorana Cirstea's so Venus should be able to have plenty of joy against Sevastova.

She will have to show some real consistency on the ground as Sevastova will look to make her play one more ball, while the Latvian is a decent returner herself which should give her some joy in this match.

However Sevastova has yet to really consistently deal with the very best players on the Tour and her record and numbers against top ten opponents since 2016 have highlighted that. There is no doubt Venus Williams is playing up to her World Ranking so far this week and I like her to win this match and cover the number.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: The match with John Isner will have given Gael Monfils the ideal preparation to deal with another strong serve in the Third Round.

No one can serve quite like Isner, but it should mean Monfils has his eye in when he faces Pierre-Hugues Herbert, while you have to imagine he would have played his compatriot enough times in private to know what to expect.

It is not an easy match if Herbert is serving at his best, but you have to think the conditions in Indian Wells are not entirely the best for the Doubles expert. He has played well to get through to the Third Round, but Herbert should be challenged by a few more returns from Monfils which will at least force him to play some tough volleys in this one.

The return game is the main reason Herbert has not had a lot of success as a Singles player compared with his Doubles career. His return is below average and Monfils has been serving well enough to think he can look after that side of his game against someone who is limited by what they can do off the first shot they see.

A key for Monfils is going to be to try and put some pressure on Herbert and not allow him to stroll through service games. He was not really able to do that effectively against Isner, but I think Monfils will have more success in this one and I will back him to have a little too much and cover the games.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: One of these players is going to make a surprising run to the Fourth Round in Indian Wells after both began in the Qualifiers.

Dudi Sela was able to make his way into the main draw as a Lucky Loser, but he has made full use of his fortune to earn his spot in the Third Round. On the other hand Marcos Baghdatis has looked very comfortable with a couple of Qualifier successes in dominant style and he has been the stronger player in both his wins so far this week.

The key for Baghdatis has been how effective he has been on the return of serve and he should be able to maintain those standards against a server like Sela who wins less than 60% of service points over the course of the season. That should mean Baghdatis has opportunities to break serve, although it is important that he produces slightly better serving numbers than he has in the first two matches here.

Sela is a very capable player of getting on top of his return games if Baghdatis is not quite up to the level he needs to be and that could make this a closer match.

However I think the Cypriot has been enjoying his time in Indian Wells and his impressive returning numbers against players with similar standards of serve with Sela should see him come through and reach the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 14-18, - 10.66 Units (64 Units Staked, - 16.66% Yield)