Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 31-April 1)

Two weeks in Japan were absolutely amazing.

What a country!!!

Anyone who has ever considered a trip to the Land of the Rising Sun should take the plunge, I promise you won't regret it. The culture is unique and very special and the food can't be beaten.

Yes, I had a very good time.

But now it is back home and there are two big months ahead in the European Football calendar before the World Cup begins in Russia.

This post will concentrate on the Weekend Premier League Football to be played on Saturday and Sunday, but you will also see a post with my latest Boxing Picks focusing on the Heavyweight Unification between Anthony Joshua and Joseph Parker.

That should either be posted on Friday evening or, more likely, Saturday morning with plenty of time before the card is to begin in Cardiff.

Next week I will resume the Tennis Picks which move onto the clay court portion of the season as well as Davis Cup Quarter Final matches to come later this week. And we are almost ready for the NBA Play Offs which begin in the middle of April so this should be a fun time after the two week break.

I am also looking to produce a short piece about Manchester United with the aim of having that out before the FA Cup Semi Final against Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday 21st April.

For now I will place the Football Picks from this weekend below.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: The Premier League is back after a two week break this weekend and the round of fixtures begins with a live showing from Selhurst Park where Crystal Palace will host Liverpool.

Roy Hodgson and Jurgen Klopp will be hoping their players can return in good health from the international break and build on the momentum earned from a win in their last Premier League games two weeks ago.

Liverpool will certainly be confident with a strong attacking team that will be going up against a Crystal Palace team who have some defensive issues which can be exposed.

However Crystal Palace have also showed they are capable of testing the best teams when they host them in their loud Selhurst Park atmosphere. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United had to work very hard for wins here recently and Crystal Palace look healthier in attacking areas which will make them feel they can challenge Liverpool as much as their visitors are able to get after their own defence.

It certainly feels like a fixture that could produce a few goals and recent history suggests it could happen. 3 of the last 4 at Selhurst Park in the Premier League have ended with four or more goals shared out, and goals tend to flow when these teams face one another.

The Liverpool away games have featured plenty of goals this season too and I think the layers could have gotten it wrong with the decent price for four or more goals this weekend. The international break can be a problem for teams to negotiate, while the knock for Wilfried Zaha is an issue for Crystal Palace, but I think both teams will believe they can earn the three points here and that could make it an exciting fixture.

Early kick offs can be slow burners, especially out of an international break, but I think both Crystal Palace and Liverpool will feel better going forward than defending and that may see a number of chances created and I will look for goals.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: We are almost at the time of the season when you have to question the motivation of teams but I have to believe both Brighton and Leicester City still have big aims to complete.

That should mean a decent game of football between the teams when they play on Saturday as Brighton look to take another step away from the relegation zone and Leicester City chase a European berth to underline Claude Puel's work here.

Both teams have to bounce back from FA Cup Quarter Final exits two weeks ago and the recent form of both teams suggests this could be a good game.

I am not surprised the layers are finding it hard to separate them with reasons to believe in both, although I am leaning towards a Brighton team who have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions. Goals have begun to flow for Brighton at the Amex Stadium and they will believe they can have some joy attacking a Leicester City defence that has not looked completely secure, especially away from home.

However Leicester City also have some real attacking threats of their own and Brighton have not kept a clean sheet in their last 7 home games in all competitions. The Foxes have only failed to scored in 1 of their last 11 away Premier League games and I think the layers are offering a big price for three or more goals to be scored in this fixture.

The last 7 Brighton fixtures at the Amex Stadium have featured at least three goals and 7 of the last 8 Leicester City away fixtures have done the same. At odds against that looks a big price to happen between these teams on Saturday and I will back three or more goals to be shared out.


Manchester United v Swansea City Pick: It sounds like another big summer is coming up for Jose Mourinho and Manchester United as they continue to mould the squad to be able to close the gap on local rivals Manchester City.

For now Mourinho has to try and end this season with a flourish for Manchester United who will see a top four finish and a FA Cup win as progress on their trophies won last season.

Manchester United have played well enough at home in recent weeks to think they can beat Swansea City even if they were beaten by Sevilla here. Outside of that Manchester United have won 6 of their last 7 at Old Trafford and they are facing a team who looked out of sorts in their 0-3 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup Quarter Final two weeks ago.

Recently Swansea City were beaten 4-1 at Brighton in the Premier League too and Carlos Carvalhal will need to see a lot more convincing defending if Swansea City are going to frustrate Manchester United. They have been harder to beat under the Spanish manager, but Swansea City have just shown some mental vulnerability when they have fallen behind in recent games and Old Trafford has been a tough ground to visit this season for the most part.

Much of the play will come from Manchester United and I do think they will be too good for Swansea City on Saturday. Recent seasons have shown this is a tough fixture for Manchester United with 2 wins in 5 against Swansea City at Old Trafford, but they have a couple of convincing wins over them this season and I think Manchester United will work to a relatively straight-forward win.

The Asian Handicap can be a tough one to cover if Manchester United come out flat, but I don't think that will be the case.

I would expect Manchester United to control the play and I think they can win this one by a couple of goals on the day.


Watford v Bournemouth Pick: Both teams look to have done enough to escape any relegation dogfight, but the winner on Saturday will almost certainly confirm their spot as a Premier League side for next season.

There is some freedom in which both Watford and Bournemouth can play and I think both have defended erratically which could help produce an exciting game.

No one can doubt that the teams should both create chances too and I think there will be every chance that we can see a few goals between Watford and Bournemouth on Saturday.

The weather in England is not the best, but the rain shouldn't make it too difficult for the players to perform at this level. With the players both have in forward areas, I do think they can do enough to find a way to score goals against each other and backing at least three goals in this one is the decision.


West Brom v Burnley Pick: This has been a season of real disappointment for West Brom and the stories emerging about the financial problems at the club suggest it will be some time before they return to the Premier League. While none of the players or management will speak about relegation, West Brom are looking for a miracle to get out of the bottom three after a run of 8 consecutive losses in all competitions.

Earlier this month this would have looked a big fixture for West Brom with Burnley out of form, but the latter have won back to back games in the Premier League to restore some lost confidence.

They certainly come into this one in better mental shape than West Brom who have blown leads in back to back games to lose touch with those teams above them in the Premier League table. Having those leads against Leicester City and Bournemouth and then capitulating in the manner they have is not a good look for West Brom and they are likely to have a tense crowd to play in front of.

The layers are not expecting too many goals when these teams meet, but that is where I think they could be surprised.

West Brom have scored and conceded goals for fun in recent games and especially at The Hawthorns, while Burnley are playing with freedom which makes them very dangerous. Sean Dyche will risk playing two up front to challenge West Brom and I do think Burnley will cause problems for West Brom from set pieces too, but the home team have to come forward and that could see them produce some chances of their own.

Burnley games have been on the low-scoring side, but the last 4 at The Hawthorns have all featured three or more goals even though West Brom have faced teams like Southampton and Huddersfield Town in that time. The last 6 between these teams on this ground have also featured three or more goals and I think the big price for that happening again has to be chanced.


West Ham United v Southampton Pick: This is a huge Premier League fixture from the London Stadium on Saturday as 17th placed West Ham United host 18th placed Southampton in a real 'relegation six pointer'.

Southampton have a new manager at the helm since their last League game as Mark Hughes has already overseen a 0-2 win at Wigan Athletic in the FA Cup Quarter Final two weeks ago. The side have not been in terrible form, and there is some quality in the squad which Hughes will look to take advantage of, while Southampton will try and make the London Stadium a more difficult place for West Ham United to play.

It is already going to be a tense atmosphere as West Ham United play for the first time since the terrible scenes that were seen in their 0-3 home loss to Burnley. The players heading away for training in Miami and posting pictures of that in the aftermath of the loss to Burnley will not have pleased the fans and you have to think they will be right on the edge to turn the Stadium into another negative environment in this one.

With Southampton playing some decent football away from home around the defeat to Newcastle United there is every chance they can find a way to turn the atmosphere poisonous for the home team again.

The goals being conceded by West Ham United have been truly alarming and I think Southampton can do enough to earn a big three points here which can take them out of the bottom three. That won't be easy for Southampton, but they have some momentum behind them having beaten Wigan Athletic two weeks ago and they have won 3 of their last 5 away games in all competitions.

Southampton have found goals away from home and I think they may just see the West Ham United fans turn on the home players during the course of this one which may make it tough for the West Ham United team to perform.

West Ham United have won 1 of their last 4 home League games and they have conceded the first goal in 4 of their last 5 at the London Stadium. If that happens here I think Southampton can win this one, but at worst I can't imagine them losing from that position and I will back The Saints on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.

The Saints have scored two or more goals in 4 of their last 6 away from home in all competitions and I will back them on the Asian Handicap here.


Everton v Manchester City Pick: Two short trips to Liverpool over the coming days could see Manchester City pick up some real momentum to take into the remainder of the season as they look to win some big trophies.

In all honesty this game at Everton is not going to determine whether or not Manchester City win the Premier League as it is a matter of time now barring the most infamous of collapses.

However Manchester City head to Goodison Park knowing a win on Saturday would put them in a position to win the title against Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium next weekend. You cannot underestimate how important that is to the players, fans and board of Manchester City and I expect the level of performance to indicate that.

Of course Manchester City will also be preparing for the huge Champions League Quarter Final against Liverpool which is played over the next ten days. That may mean some changes, but I expect Manchester City are far too good for Everton.

Sam Allardyce's men have been inconsistent in recent weeks and that has put some pressure on the manager. I think Allardyce will look to set Everton up to be tough to beat and then hope to get something on the counter, but I believe sitting back will play into Manchester City's hands as they will control the ball and work Everton over.

Everton are not as strong defensively as they would like to be and I would expect Manchester City to find a way to break them down. They have lost 4 times at home in the Premier League and Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal have all won by comfortable margins here.

Manchester City have been in fine form, they are well rested and have an almost fully fit squad to choose from. Pep Guardiola won't have forgotten losing 4-0 at Goodison Park last season and I think Manchester City will win on a ground where they have had some difficulties in recent years.

I will look for Manchester City to win by a couple of goals on the day and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Arsenal v Stoke City Pick: This game is comfortably more important for Stoke City than Arsenal in terms of the Premier League this season, but Paul Lambert has to feel his side have dropped too many points in recent weeks even when looking strong.

Charlie Adam has been a real disappointment for the manager having missed a penalty to beat Brighton and then being sent off early in the home loss to Everton last time out.

Lambert needs more focus from the players, but snapping a 15 game losing run at Arsenal is not going to be easy with the home team still looking for a strong end to the season.

The focus may be on the Europa League, but Arsenal will want to keep some momentum behind them before they host CSKA Moscow in the Europa League Quarter Final First Leg. Arsenal have won their last couple of games at the Emirates Stadium while scoring three goals in each of those and I think they are going to be a little too good for Stoke City here.

Stoke City are in danger of losing touch with the teams above them having dropped some silly points, and those came against teams who aren't as strong as Arsenal can be. At home Arsenal do tend to produce their best football and I do think Arsene Wenger will pick a strong team to try and get this game won and see whether they can get closer to the top four.

The Gunners have been too good for Stoke City when facing them at home and I think they will be too good again. I will back them to win by a couple of goals on the day and cover the Asian Handicap.


Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The race for the top four could either be reignited or it could be virtually over depending on the way the Chelsea versus Tottenham Hotspur game goes on Sunday.

The final game from the Premier League weekend is the stand out one of this round of fixtures and both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have to believe they have the quality to get the desired result they would want.

Chelsea have not played as poorly as their results as far as I am concerned and I think they have the players who can cause Tottenham Hotspur some real problems. The Blues have beaten Spurs in 3 of the last 4 meetings at Stamford Bridge and a healthy squad from an attacking point of view gives Chelsea every chance of securing the win they need.

There are some issues in defensive areas which could be an issue for Antonio Conte's men especially if the likes of Thibaut Courtois and Andreas Christensen are missing. However that could be balanced out by the expected absence of Harry Kane for Tottenham Hotspur, although Mauricio Pochettino will believe Tottenham Hotspur still have the desired quality to create chances and score goals in this one too.

I think it could be an exciting game even if the weather in London is not the best this weekend.

Both teams will be looking to impose themselves on the other and neither have looked that secure defensively to think they can contain the kind of attacking talent that will be on the field.

That should lead to enough chances for the teams to combine for three or more goals in this one and that is what I will back.

4 of the last 5 games between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have featured at least three goals and I think both teams can play a part in this one on the way to three or more goals shared out.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)