There is still some work to do to turn this week around completely, but this may be the last day of Tennis Picks until March 28th as I am heading for a vacation for a few days.
Some of the Thursday matches have already been set though with two women's Quarter Finals to be played on that day, but I have yet to look through those and see if there is anything of interest.
I do know I have a few Picks from the ATP Fourth Round and the WTA Quarter Final matches to be played on Wednesday though and those can be seen below.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Petra Martic: This has already been a huge week for Petra Martic who is going to be at a career high World Ranking when the new Rankings are released on Monday. She came through as the underdog on Tuesday against Marketa Vondrousova and Martic has been playing well in 2018 having returned from another injury in a career that has been held back by her injury issues.
This is a real step up in level of competition though as she takes on the World Number 1 Simona Halep who will remain as the top player in the world until April at least after seeing rival Caroline Wozniacki beaten in the Fourth Round. That means Halep can't lose the Number 1 World Ranking in Miami either and the Romanian is playing with a lot of confidence this season despite battling some injury concerns of her own.
It is the return game that has produced the most eye-catching numbers as Halep is winning over 50% of return points over the course of 2018. That has put a lot of pressure on her opponents and I expect she can do the same against Martic even if the latter has produced some solid looking numbers behind her serve.
Those have not come against players of this quality though and Halep will feel she can work into a number of opportunities to break the Martic serve.
Her own serve has not been working too badly either, although Halep is always vulnerable to some poor games. She has to work hard to look after her serve, but Martic's return against the very best players still has room for improvement while her own second serve should be attacked by Halep with a lot of success.
It is a big number for Halep to cover, but she is playing at an elite level and I think she can get the better of Martic in this Quarter Final.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Taylor Fritz: You have to appreciate the resolve Taylor Fritz has shown to get through to the Fourth Round at Indian Wells having won two of his three matches despite losing the first set.
The young American has some strong numbers behind serve on the hard courts and he will need that weapon to be at its best if he is going to see off Borna Coric who is playing at a very high level.
The Coric return has been the spark for his recent strong results and he has looked at ease in the conditions in Indian Wells. Coric has yet to drop a set in the tournament and the most games he has lost in a set is three while beating some quality operators like Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Roberto Bautista Agut.
This match will have a different feel for Coric though as neither of those players are possessing the same kind of first serve as Fritz. However Bautista Agut had been serving well before Coric took him apart in the Third Round and the young Croatian is really producing some impressive return numbers.
Coric's serve has been decent enough to think he can trouble an opponent who has not been at his best when it comes to the return side of the game. That is where I think Coric will have the edge over Fritz and I think he will be able to come through this Fourth Round match with a win and a cover of the games.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: This Fourth Round match looks to be one that will be dominated by the serve with both Philipp Kohlschreiber and Pierre-Hugues Herbert producing strong numbers behind serve.
With both struggling on the return too I don't think there will be a lot between them, although it is Kohlschreiber who may get a little more joy from the return at the key times to win this match.
His opponent should be well rested having overcome Gael Monfils in the Third Round when the latter pulled out with an injury, but Herbert will know that he is under pressure to produce his best serving to remain competitive.
Kohlschreiber was a very good winner over Marin Cilic in the Third Round, although it was a close match and the German was perhaps a little lucky to get through that match. It should give him the confidence to make enough returns in this one to force Herbert to hit a number of volleys to win points though and I think that can see Kohlschreiber gaining the edge in the match.
The layers are right in expecting a close match, but I will back Kohlschreiber to just play the big points a little better than Herbert and that should give him a chance to cover this number of games.
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: The conditions in Indian Wells may be the best they could be on a hard court for someone like Pablo Carreno Busta to beat Kevin Anderson. However Carreno Busta has struggled for form since his run to the US Open Semi Final which was ended by the big serving South African.
Anderson was clearly the superior player that day and he has been in fine form in 2018 barring a First Round exit at the Australian Open. Confidence has to be high for Anderson even if he struggled more than expected in his Third Round win over Nicolas Kicker.
The serve continues to be a huge weapon for Anderson and I think that can put Carreno Busta under some pressure even if the Spaniard has found a way to break big serves with his hustle around the court.
A bigger problem for Carreno Busta is making sure he is able to hold serve enough times to capitalise on those breaks when they come his way. He was a comfortable winner over Daniil Medvedev in the Third Round, but Carreno Busta perhaps rode his luck a little bit having saved 11/12 break point chances the Russian created that day.
I expect Anderson will be able to generate some break points of his own having matched up well with Carreno Busta in their past meetings with two of those coming on the hard courts during the North American summer swing last year. Those were in faster conditions than the one we see in Indian Wells so Carreno Busta may be able to keep this one closer, but I think Anderson is going to be a little too good for him thanks to a strong serve and an ability to force break points in this one.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: What can I say about Roger Federer that hasn't been said over the last twelve months? There are very few signs that Federer is slipping off the standards he has set in that time and it is no surprise that he is the favourite to win the title in Indian Wells this week.
The numbers are mind boggling with the serve being close to impenetrable and that has seen Federer able to take a few chances on the return of serve which has paid off on the hard courts.
You have to have the right mental mindset to challenge Federer at the moment and there are very few players who I think believe they can beat him on his current form.
I am not convinced Jeremy Chardy is that player despite a strong run here in Indian Wells although he may give Federer something to think about with a decent serve he possesses.
Unfortunately for Chardy, the return game has not really been at the level where you think he can beat Federer and I think that is going to be part of the reason he is unable to stay with the Swiss superstar. Struggles on the return can bleed into the service games with pressure on Chardy to not allow one of the best front runners in tennis history to get in front and I think that is going to be a reason Federer is able to cover a big number.
The Federer return has been working well enough to think he will have enough break points to convert into breaks of serve and win this one impressively.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: On first glance this looked a lot of games for Juan Martin Del Potro to cover against his compatriot Leonardo Mayer, but I do think the former US Open Champion is in good enough form to do that.
First off you have to credit Mayer for his three wins this week in Indian Wells which have all come in dominant fashion by the numbers. However he has been given a kind path through to the Fourth Round with the likes of Novak Djokovic going out before Mayer had to face them and this is a big step up in class for him.
What makes Mayer dangerous is the serve as he has been looking after this side of his game very effectively. Those numbers do decline, as expected, when Mayer faces a top 20 opponent on hard courts but I think they dip enough for someone like Del Potro to take advantage and secure a comfortable looking win on the scoreboard.
Del Potro should be able to look after his serve very comfortably for the most part and that should give him a chance to take some risks on the return which should be able to pay off. The big man has been returning pretty well in recent matches and he would have been a comfortable winner in the Third Round over David Ferrer if Del Potro had converted more than 1/16 break point chances he created in that match.
I would be surprised if Del Potro has that many break point chances in this one, but I think he is likely to be more clinical with the opportunities when they do come. The pressure from his own service games should build on Mayer and wear him down mentally in this one which should give Del Potro the chance to earn a cover of a big number of games.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 17-18, - 6.12 Units (72 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
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