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Thursday, 15 March 2018

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 17-18)

I've got to get ready for some night time football this weekend as I am heading across to the Far East for a break at the same time the international break in European Football and that is the main reason this post is out a couple of days earlier than usual.

There is quite a bit of football to be played on Saturday and Sunday before the two week break and I won't be updating this page until I am back.

You will be able to see my Europa League Picks from the featured post, and then I will be back a few days before the next round of Premier League games at the end of the month with potential Tennis Picks from the end of the Miami Masters, as well as my next Boxing Picks from the Anthony Joshua versus Joseph Parker Heavyweight Unification Fight.


Bournemouth v West Brom Pick: A couple of weeks ago you would have been able to back Bournemouth at odds against to win this fixture, but the recent West Brom performances means the home side are now odds on.

That comes despite Bournemouth blowing a 1-0 lead in a 1-4 home loss to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday. However that result came a day after West Brom had done the exact same thing in their defeat to Leicester City on Saturday which looks to be the kind of result that a side destined for relegation would be dealing with at this time of the season.

Nothing is cemented for West Brom just yet, but they are going to find it very hard to bridge the 8 points to safety in their final 8 Premier League games. The Baggies have lost 7 straight games in all competitions and the fixture list sees them face some of the better teams in the remaining weeks of the season.

This is almost a 'must win' game for West Brom as anything less would make it hard to believe they can go into those tougher fixtures with any kind of confidence to earn the results they need.

Getting a result at the Vitality Stadium won't be easy as Bournemouth have been scoring plenty of goals here in recent weeks and had been unbeaten in 6 in all competitions before Tottenham Hotspur came to town. There is a defensive vulnerability about Bournemouth which may encourage West Brom, even though they haven't scored in their last 3 away Premier League games, as Alan Pardew's team have created chances.

However their own defensive issues are likely to be exploited by Bournemouth and they are the more likely winners.

This could be an entertaining game with both teams likely to have some chances and both managers will want their teams to get forward and try to earn an important three points. Bournemouth are likely to have the edge with home advantage and better recent form behind them, but West Brom can play a part this weekend and I will look for these teams to combine for three or more goals.


Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace Pick: This is a fascinating game at the bottom of the Premier League table between two of the bottom six and the implications of the fixture won't be lost on either David Wagner or Roy Hodgson. With the likes of Southampton, West Ham United and Newcastle United out of action this weekend, both Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace will be very keen on earning the morale boosting three points on offer.

Picking a winner is not easy with Huddersfield Town showing battling qualities of late but now facing a Crystal Palace team who have some key performers back.

The biggest name is Wilfried Zaha and you could see the entire team lifted by his presence when he came on in the second half of the 2-1 loss at Chelsea last weekend. That is part of a 4 game losing run for Crystal Palace, but those have come against Everton, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Chelsea.

The recent away record has not been very good for Crystal Palace either, but again you would have to point out the Stadiums in which they have been playing.

Huddersfield Town are unlikely to dominate Crystal Palace in the same way even if they have picked up some solid results of late. They created plenty last week in their goalless draw with Swansea City and Huddersfield Town will feel they can hurt a Crystal Palace team who have conceded too many goals of late, but the same can be said for The Eagles with some key attacking players back from injury.

The layers are not expecting too much goalmouth action in this fixture, but I think it could surprise. Both teams have shown some quality going forward, but have not convinced defensively and I don't think either manager will be happy with a point in this one. That should mean both Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace are pushing for a win and I can see both teams scoring in a game where the two teams combine for at least three goals.


Stoke City v Everton Pick: Just because a game is a 'must win' one for a team it doesn't automatically mean that team will respond to what is a pressurised situation.

However I do think Stoke City can earn what will be a big result at the Bet365 Stadium on Saturday when they face an Everton team who have not been the same on their travels as they have at home.

It is a 'must win' game for Stoke City because they have underperformed this season and there is no guarantee they can produce now the pressure is on. Paul Lambert does have them playing with more defensive shape though and Stoke City have been close to earning more wins than they have managed under Lambert's guidance.

No one should be too concerned about the defeat to Manchester City, but prior to that Stoke City had been unbeaten in 6 League games under Lambert's guidance and had taken the lead in 4 of those. Some poor composure in the final third has prevented more than 1 of those games turning into wins, but Stoke City will feel they can produce the three points against an Everton team who have lost 6 away games in a row.

Those defeats have come at teams much higher up the League table than Stoke City, but Everton have not travelled well in the Premier League for some time. Everton have won 1 of their last 23 away games in the League and it would be a surprise if they improved that record this weekend.

I have to respect the fact that 4 of the last 6 games between these teams on this ground have ended in draws but I think Paul Lambert can help Stoke City get the better of this one.

I won't back them in the win-draw-win market because of the history of the fixture and Stoke City's recent form just seeing them come up short from earning the wins. Instead I will back Stoke City on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture knowing half of the stake will be returned in the event of another draw between these teams.


Liverpool v Watford Pick: Going by the current form guide it is hard to imagine anything other than a comfortable Liverpool win when they host Watford in the live Premier League offering on Saturday afternoon.

While Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 home Premier League games, Watford have lost 7 of their last 8 away League games and have scored just a couple of goals in that time.

In saying that, I thought Watford were a touch unfortunate to lose 3-0 at Arsenal last Sunday with some of the chances they created that day. A Troy Deeney missed penalty at 2-0 saw Watford lose any belief that they could earn a result at the Emirates Stadium, but they will feel they can put some pressure on a Liverpool defence that still has some vulnerabilities.

The bigger question is whether Javi Gracia can set up Watford to be a little stronger defensively and try and contain a ferocious Liverpool attack. That hasn't looked the case in recent weeks with Watford conceding at least twice in their last couple of away games at West Ham United and Arsenal and now facing a much more confident team who are looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss at Old Trafford.

Liverpool have scored at least twice in their last 6 home Premier League games and I think they are going to run out comfortable winners here. They have beaten Watford 4 times in a row at Anfield and I expect they are going to have too much for their visitors this weekend too.

I think you can back Liverpool to cover a big Asian Handicap where a two goal win would return the stake. Watford have visited half of the top six teams in the Premier League this season and have lost by at least two goals each time but they have trailed by three goals at both Manchester City and Arsenal.

A goal for Watford could make it hard for Liverpool to cover, but I think the home team have a big reaction to the defeat to Manchester United. Watford have shown they can cause problems for Liverpool though and I will look for both teams to score in this one with only a penalty miss preventing Watford from scoring at all three top six clubs they have visited in the League.

Anything other than a Liverpool win would be a big surprise though and so backing the home team to win a match in which both teams score has to be worth an interest. Watford may have struggled for goals away from home of late, but they have scored in 7 of their 8 games against the top six including in losses at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad Stadium and I think that could be the outcome of this one too.


Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The first FA Cup Semi Finalist will be determined in the early game at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday lunchtime and I think it is a much closer Quarter Final than the layers do who have Tottenham Hotspur as a clear favourite to win at the Liberty Stadium.

Losing Harry Kane to injury and potentially missing Dele Alli is a tough prospect for Tottenham Hotspur to deal with in this Quarter Final, while Swansea City have been in fine form under Carlos Carvalhal.

The Swans have lost just 1 of their last 14 games in all competitions and they have won 7 in a row at the Liberty Stadium including beating Liverpool and Arsenal. They have been defensively well organised under Carvalhal and I think the Spaniard may choose to pick a much stronger team than he has in previous Rounds knowing there is a two week break coming after this fixture.

Jordan Ayew is a loss for Swansea City but they are a team that can make life difficult for Tottenham Hotspur. They have also found a way to score goals in recent weeks having struggled earlier in the season, while Tottenham Hotspur have not been the best on their travels in recent weeks.

Tottenham Hotspur have shown they are tough to beat in their recent away run, but they were close to having 6 consecutive away draws before scoring late at Crystal Palace in a 0-1 win. Last weekend they were impressive in seeing off Bournemouth, but I don't think Swansea City will be as open as The Cherries were, and Tottenham Hotspur have recently failed to win at Newport County and Rochdale in away FA Cup ties.

They did win 0-2 at the Liberty Stadium in early January but I do think Swansea City are improved since then. I expect they can make it very difficult for Tottenham Hotspur and backing the home team with the start on the Asian Handicap and looking for them to at least force extra time is my pick here.

You can't deny Tottenham Hotspur have a very impressive recent record at the Liberty Stadium with 5 wins in their last 6 visits to this ground. However I think Swansea City will look to make life very difficult for their visitors who have not been winning a lot of away games of late and Carlos Carvalhal can set his team up to keep this one competitive.

There is a danger with this pick that Swansea City could be chasing the game and potentially picked off on the counter attack, but they have been playing well enough at home to back with the start on the Asian Handicap in this one. I am second guessing the manager and expecting a strong Swansea City team to start this one too, but I don't see why Carlos Carvalhal wouldn't pick his best team and that team have proven tough to beat at home of late.


Manchester United v Brighton Pick: Tuesday night turned into a nightmare at the Theatre of Dreams for Manchester United as they were shockingly dumped out of the Champions League by Sevilla.

Make no mistake about it, that was a tremendously poor result and two terrible performances from Manchester United in both Legs of a very winnable tie.

Now it is up to Jose Mourinho to pick up the players after the disappointment they would have felt as Manchester United look to stay alive in the one competition they could potentially win this season. Mourinho deserves the criticism that is coming his way for employing such a tepid style against Sevilla in both games against them but it is up to the players to also step up and show they belong in the red of Manchester United in the seasons ahead.

I do think Manchester United will make some changes to the starting eleven to freshen things up, but a strong team should be picked to make their way past an improved Brighton team. Anything less than a win would be a huge blow to Mourinho and may see the fans turn on the manager, but Manchester United should have enough for a goal-shy Brighton when playing away from the Amex Stadium.

Chris Hughton will look to make Brighton hard to beat but they have struggled when visiting the top teams in the Premier League. Brighton have really had issues in front of goal away from home and they have lost at all six clubs they have visited in the top nine of the Premier League table.

The Seagulls have lost all but one of those games by a couple of goals and failed to score in each of those so I think Manchester United can be backed to either win to nil or cover the Asian Handicap and win by two or more goals.

The exception for Brighton in that run was a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford, but the nature of the FA Cup will mean they will likely take more chances if chasing the game and Manchester United can punish them on the counter attack. I do expect a much better performance from Manchester United than we saw on Tuesday night and I think they can get the better of Brighton in this FA Cup Quarter Final.

Life could be much more comfortable for Manchester United if they can get on the front foot quickly in this Quarter Final and give the fans something to get behind. I think that could be the approach and Manchester United can win this one by a couple of goals on the day.


Wigan Athletic v Southampton Pick: It is going to be interesting to see how the Southampton players react if they kick off this FA Cup Quarter Final inside the bottom three of the Premier League.

The decision to sack Mauricio Pellegrino has come late in the season and it sounds like Mark Hughes could be appointed ahead of this fixture. That will mean he doesn't have a lot of time to implement his ideas and the more telling influence may come from any new manager after the international break.

The Premier League is the priority for whoever comes in, but Southampton did reach the League Cup Final last season and this is a FA Cup tie that represents a very good chance to reach the FA Cup Semi Final and return to Wembley Stadium.

Some may say that is disrespectful to Wigan Athletic who have beaten Bournemouth, West Ham United and Manchester City at this ground in the FA Cup already this season. However the layers have the home team as the underdog with 30 League places between the two teams and you can't argue with Southampton as the favourites considering they have already won at Fulham during the Cup run.

Recent form has not been the best though and I think the players are short enough on confidence to be challenged by this Wigan Athletic team. The Latics score plenty of goals at home and they showed against Manchester City that they can be defensively sound enough to cause problems for this Southampton team who have been in poor form of late.

However Southampton had been tough to beat away from home prior to the 3-0 defeat at Newcastle United last weekend which cost Pellegrino his job as manager of the club. With the additional Premier League quality they should still find a way to get past Wigan Athletic, but I think the team is short on confidence which could at least see the home team force extra time.

Wigan Athletic's 3 wins over Premier League teams in the FA Cup this season makes them a dangerous team and I will back the underdog with the start on the Asian Handicap. As much as I believe Southampton have enough quality to win here, Wigan Athletic are in better form and may have more belief and that can be enough to bridge the gap between the teams and perhaps even see yet another upset for the League One club.


Leicester City v Chelsea Pick: The last of the FA Cup Quarter Final ties is played on Sunday afternoon at the King Power Stadium and I think Leicester City are going to feel confident in their chances of upsetting Chelsea.

While their visitors have been having a tough Champions League Last 16 Second Leg to negotiate during the week, Claude Puel would have been working with his Leicester City team to make sure they know exactly what they need to do on Sunday.

Puel has Leicester City playing well and they have been strong at the King Power Stadium in recent weeks, although they will be challenged by a Chelsea team that do come forward with some menace.

However Leicester City can expose some of the defensive vulnerabilities Chelsea have displayed in their 5 game losing run away from home and I think this could be a fun Cup tie for the neutrals to enjoy.

Both teams should feel confident going forward, but neither Leicester City or Chelsea will have full belief in the way they have been defending in recent games. With the attacking players likely to have the edge in the tie, I can see both teams getting amongst the goals in this one and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the right way to go with this.

The nature of a Cup tie could mean spaces open up when a team begins to chase the game and I think both teams have the pace to hurt the other if they are leaving spaces behind them. The home underdog tempted me considering they have been preparing for this game all week, but recent Chelsea away games have featured a fair few goals and I think there will be enough chances for three or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Bournemouth-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Huddersfield-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Swansea City + 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wigan Athletic + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

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