Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 10-12)

It has been a busy week and that means I am going to just place my picks from the weekend Premier League games below.

Of course the focus for me is on the fixture at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime when those lot from down the M62 come to town in what is a big month for Manchester United who have four consecutive home games to come.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: The biggest game in English Football remains Manchester United versus Liverpool and this Premier League weekend is opened up by the two most successful clubs clashing at lunchtime on Saturday.

However this is a match that may determine which team is going to finish behind Manchester City rather than for any silverware, although that won't lessen the desire of the players, managers and fans involved in the game.

Games between Manchester United and Liverpool have been tight affairs for the most part in recent seasons and this one looks like it may be another. The last 4 games between these teams have all ended in draws and I would not be surprised at all if that is the case again on Saturday.

Manchester United have been very good at home this season though and that advantage does give them the edge. On the other hand, Liverpool have been scoring plenty of away goals of late and the fact they have managed at least two goals in 10 in their last 11 away games in all competitions won't have been missed by Jose Mourinho.

Mourinho is perceived as being a 'negative' manager by the press and fans and that is especially the case when opposed by the likes of Jurgen Klopp. However I have found Klopp has made sure Liverpool are playing off a very solid base when coming up against Manchester United in recent matches and he has not been willing to take risks to open things up as we saw in the goalless draw at Anfield between these teams.

I can see both teams being very concerned with what the other is capable of doing when they go forward and so I have a feeling another tight game could develop.

Neither will want to give much away and I think both Mourinho and Klopp would likely take a draw right now and look to confirm their top four places against other teams in the weeks ahead.

I think Mourinho will want to limit the space behind his defence to ensure Liverpool are not going to get the likes of Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane in dangerous positions behind the full backs. Both teams will likely go with a three man midfield to control matters and then hope their special players can come up with something big to win the game.

Mourinho could be looking to use the pace of Alexis Sanchez, Romelu Lukaku and either Marcus Rashford or Jesse Lingard to spring Manchester United from defence to attack very quickly.

That could give Liverpool problems, although they have shown some better defensive performances of late and I think these teams might not have a lot between them by the end of 90 minutes. Goals have been an issue when these teams have met in recent matches and the last 6 have ended with two or fewer goals shared out.

At odds against I think that is worth backing in a fixture where a point could end up suiting all parties.


Everton v Brighton Pick: On recent form you would have to think that Brighton are coming in with a lot more confidence than Everton and they have actually moved above their hosts in the Premier League table thanks to results last weekend.

However I do think Everton are a much different prospect when they play in front of their own fans and they have won beaten Leicester City and Crystal Palace in their last couple of League games here. The squad is getting healthier and I do think Everton are better than they have shown away from home in losses to Watford and Burnley, especially the latter game in which they were the much better team in the first half.

It won't be easy against a Brighton team who have recently drawn at Newcastle United, Southampton and Stoke City to keep the points ticking over. Adding those results to the wins at home have seen Brighton fly up into the top half of the Premier League table and this is a club that looks like they have the momentum to avoid the drop.

Both teams could easily get on the scoreboard in this one, but I think home advantage could be the key for Everton.

There is also a feeling that Brighton may be a touch distracted by their big FA Cup Quarter Final against Manchester United next weekend, especially after putting 7 points between themselves and the bottom three. That could see players perhaps looking ahead to the next fixture and Everton have played much better at home so are capable of taking advantage.

I will back Everton on the Asian Handicap only because of the form of Brighton which has to be respected. That will ensure half the stake is returned in case of a draw, but I think Everton will have a little more motivation for this fixture and can earn the victory for a third straight win at Goodison Park in the Premier League.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: This is a huge relegation battle on Saturday afternoon from the North East as Southampton (17th place) make the long trip to Newcastle United (16th) in the Premier League.

Both teams are very much in the mix when it comes to the relegation battle and the one who can deal with the tension best is likely going to have the best chance to win this one.

The winning team will feel they have created a real buffer to the bottom three knowing both Crystal Palace and Stoke City have difficult fixtures to come, but the losing team will be right in trouble.

Neither Newcastle United or Southampton will feel they are in the worst form, but producing wins has been a challenge for both. The Saints are dangerous having found a way to score goals away from home in recent weeks, while Newcastle United will feel they can make it back to back wins at home having beaten Manchester United the last time they played at St James' Park.

There won't be much between the teams though and the draw is a big player in this one. However I am not convinced that will be 0-0 as both teams have scored in their last 3 home/away games respectively.

Both are unbeaten in that run of games, but neither Newcastle United or Southampton have looked that capable of putting a run of clean sheets together either. Picking both teams to score on Saturday looks the right option as it will cover any score draw, but also leaves things open for one of the teams to take a little more chance to secure a big win.

The last 5 League games between these teams at St James' Park have featured both teams scoring, while they have already played out a 2-2 draw this season. My lean goes towards Southampton if I had to pick a winner and that is mainly down to the amount of goals they have scored in recent away games.

However I am going to stick with backing both teams to hit at least one goal on Saturday in this big Premier League fixture.


West Brom v Leicester City Pick: Two out of form teams meet on Saturday afternoon at The Hawthorns and this may be the last chance saloon for West Brom if they have any hope of getting out of the bottom three.

They are facing a Leicester City team who have looked a little flat in their last few Premier League games as the players are perhaps keeping something in the tank for their FA Cup run. A big game is next up at home against Chelsea in the FA Cup Quarter Final and so it won't be a surprise if Leicester City are distracted even if they are also pushing for a top seven finish in the Premier League.

That should give West Brom a chance having created chances in recent matches, but who have not performed well enough in front of goal. The bigger issue has been the breakdown in defensive areas which have seen West Brom concede too many goals in their 6 game losing run in all competitions.

Confidence has to be shot for the home team which makes it hard to back them, even as the home underdog. The players don't believe in what Alan Pardew wants them to do, while the squad has not been as focused as they should be.

It is how it looks to the people outside of the club at least but West Brom can cause problems for Leicester City in this one if the away team is thinking ahead to the FA Cup Quarter Final next weekend. However Leicester City should have opportunities on the counter attack against a West Brom team who have to come forward and find the three points in this one and I can see both teams creating chances in this fixture.

The layers don't think there will be many goals, but the last 3 at The Hawthorns have produced at least three goals to be shared out. Add in the fact that 6 of the last 7 Leicester City away games have also hit that number and I think the odds against quote for at least three goals this weekend looks far too big.

With West Brom having to come forward, Leicester City should be able to exploit some spaces on the counter attack and I will back at least three goals to be scored in this one.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: You do have to do some reading between the lines when it comes to how the Chelsea versus Crystal Palace Premier League fixture is going to go this weekend.

Chelsea are off back to back Premier League losses to both Manchester clubs and also have the distraction of their Champions League Second Round Second Leg at Barcelona to come during the week.

On the other hand Crystal Palace have suffered back to back heartbreaking defeats with late goals costing them against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. The manner of the 2-3 loss to Manchester United on Monday night would have really hurt a squad that is stretched by injury, especially as Crystal Palace were leading 2-0 with a little over half an hour to go in that game.

That means we have to try and work out the confidence of the two teams heading into this live offering from Saturday afternoon.

My lean is clearly towards Chelsea though who have been much better at Stamford Bridge and who have had an extra day of rest compared with Crystal Palace. Antonio Conte also has more options at his disposal than Roy Hodgson and I think the latter is going to find it tough to pick up his players after the way they were beaten by Manchester United.

Wilfried Zaha's absence has hurt Crystal Palace too and I think they will find it tough to replicate their back to back 1-2 wins at Stamford Bridge.

I would expect Antonio Conte to get a real reaction from his Chelsea players after the poor performance at Manchester City and a more attacking system is likely to pay off for the home team. There is enough quality to hurt a Crystal Palace team struggling for numbers and one who have conceded 8 times in 3 away Premier League games which have resulted in heavy losses at Arsenal and Everton.

I believe Chelsea will have too much and give themselves a confidence boosting win ahead of the trip to Barcelona on Wednesday.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: The Premier League is beginning to get to that time of the season when teams start to achieve their goals and perhaps lose a bit of focus on matters on the field.

For a team like Arsenal it may mean shifting attention to the Europa League in the weeks ahead as winning that competition will be the best way for The Gunners to get back into the Champions League. Making up 13 points on Tottenham Hotspur with 9 games left to play looks very difficult despite a favourable fixture list and Arsenal's 0-2 win in Milan shows they can have an impact in the Europa League.

Motivation may be an issue in a few weeks for the Premier League games especially if Arsene Wenger makes changes to his starting eleven, but I don't believe the home team will be unmotivated here. They have performed well to take a 0-2 lead from the game in Italy on Thursday and don't think many of the players will have forgotten Troy Deeney's comments after Watford came from behind to beat Arsenal earlier this season.

Deeney openly stated Arsenal 'lacked cojones' in that defeat and I fully expect the Arsenal players to try and ram those taunts down his throat. The Watford striker is in good form having scored the winner against Everton and West Brom in each of the last two weeks, but Watford have been a different animal away from home over the last couple of months.

The Hornets have lost 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and now head to the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal tend to play their best football. Arsenal were beaten 0-3 by Manchester City last time out here, but the 4 Premier League games they have failed to win at the Emirates Stadium have all come against teams currently above them in the League table.

Before the loss to Manchester City, Arsenal had scored at least twice in 4 straight League games at home, while they had crushed Everton and Crystal Palace in back to back games. I expect Javi Gracia to try and make Watford hard to beat and hit Arsenal on the counter, but Watford have not defended as well away from home and Arsenal have won 7 of their 10 home League games by two or more goals.

I will back The Gunners to try and build some momentum behind them and I think they can win this game by a couple of goals at least on Sunday.


Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: All eyes will be on Tottenham Hotspur to see how they respond to the big disappointment of exiting the Champions League in the Last 16 Round.

The exit would have hurt, but it would have been felt much deeper because of the manner of the loss to Juventus as Tottenham Hotspur looked the better team and seemed to have their guests where they wanted them at half time.

Ultimately it felt like Tottenham Hotspur's inexperience at the highest European level cost them and it is up to Mauricio Pochettino to pick his players up as they refocus on domestic matters. Pochettino has to remind the players how important this season could be with a potential FA Cup success to put alongside a top four finish in the Premier League.

Tottenham Hotspur are favourites to win at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday, but Bournemouth have been in fine form in recent weeks and are willing to give it a go in every match they play. They have been scoring for fun at home in the last few Premier League games and Bournemouth have had a week to prepare for this fixture which will give them a chance for the upset.

The home team will certainly feel they can score against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not had too many clean sheets away from home in recent weeks. They did manage one at Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago, but Spurs had not had one in their 5 previous away games and had been involved in 3 consecutive 2-2 draws.

With Bournemouth scoring at least twice in their last 5 home Premier League games, but also conceding, and Tottenham Hotspur scoring at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games it is no surprise the layers have shortened the price for three or more goals to be shared out.

I can see both teams having their chances in this one as Bournemouth create chances against an opponent who may be a little down after their European run was ended. On the other hand I would expect Tottenham Hotspur to threaten a Bournemouth backline that haven't been producing too many clean sheets and backing this fixture to offer up four or more goals looks a big price.

That number has been reached in 2 of their 5 Premier League meetings in the since 2015 and I will look for that to be the outcome of this fixture on Sunday.


Stoke City v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League title is very much heading to Manchester City, but don't expect any let up from the League leaders who want to confirm the title as soon as they can.

That isn't the best news for relegation threatened Stoke City who have to host Manchester City on Monday night this week.

Paul Lambert has come in as manager of Stoke City and the performances of the side have improved although the results could have been better. With better finishing and a little more luck Stoke City would have had more points on the board than the draws with Brighton and Leicester City, but they have had to settle for draws in both games.

This is also the best team Stoke City would have played since Lambert took over and there is no doubting the size of the challenge in front of them. I imagine Paul Lambert will have spent the last seven days working on defensive shape to try and make Stoke City as hard to beat as possible and then steal something on the counter attack.

It is a good theory, but it is going to be very difficult for Stoke City to put that into practice against a Manchester City team who also have had the majority of their big names well rested for this fixture. They can be a little bit more erratic away from home, but Manchester City looked very good in dismissing Arsenal and I think they will be able to wear down this Stoke City team.

My feeling is that Manchester City will win by either two or three goal margins and backing them to do that returns an odds against quote. You can dutch those two margins for the odds against return and I think Manchester City will wear down Stoke City over the course of ninety minutes.

At some point the bigger concern for Paul Lambert will be the home game against Everton the following Saturday and I will back Manchester City to win by two or three goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester United-Liverpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Brom-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.60 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win by 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.22 Bet Fred (2 Units)