Tennis Picks 2018 (February 28th)

It has been a difficult start to the week for the Tennis Picks after two very strong weeks which have produced over 40 units of profits to move the 2018 season into a positive position.

Tuesday was a little frustrating with Nicolas Kicker missing his cover by a single game which can be attributed to his failure to serve out the first set at 6-5. Joao Sousa also lost his match despite having four break points at 4-4 in the decider and holding three match points in the final set tie-breaker.

Two other picks were simply poor picks and never really had much of a chance of success, but it could have been a much better day all around.

At the time I am writing this, the Acapulco Picks have yet to be played with the two from Tuesday both taking place in the early hours of Wednesday morning in London. I won't be up watching, but instead will be trying to stay warm with the 'Beast from the East' settling in for the remainder of the week before we get some more appealing temperatures, although wet weather will arrive instead of the snow.


EDIT: Dominic Thiem became the second player to reach match point in time for a cover as he led 6-3, 5-4 but just lost his concentration which resulted in a much tighter match than needed. Thiem and Joao Sousa could have turned the entire day around, but instead it was a tough Tuesday.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: There isn't a lot of places between these two players in the World Rankings, but it is the lower Ranked Borna Coric who comes in as the favourite to beat Benoit Paire.

He has performed well in Dubai in the past and Coric had an impressive win over Richard Gasquet in the First Round which has to give him some confidence.

So far 2018 has not been a great start for Coric, but there is definitely better to come from the youngster. His serve has not been as effective as it can be, but Coric dominated behind that shot in the First Round win over Gasquet.

Coric has definitely been a little stronger when it comes to the return of serve compared with the last twelve months and that could be important in this match. He is facing Benoit Paire whose numbers on the hard courts have been pretty steady and that has continued in 2018 where his serve has been decent enough on this surface but the return has not been as strong as the Frenchman would have liked.

There is a slight concern that Coric is not able to produce his best tennis for the second day in succession, but the previous successes in Dubai coupled with an opponent whose numbers can make him vulnerable on the hard courts leads me to believing the favourite wins this one. It will be tight at times and Paire is very capable of producing a big match with some solid performances behind him in 2018, but I think Coric is able to get past him with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 kind of win.


Yuichi Sugita v Jan-Lennard Struff: Both of these players got through their First Round matches in Dubai very comfortably and the layers are finding it tough to separate Yuichi Sugita and Jan-Lennard Struff.

It is going to be a close match, but I think the Sugita performances on the hard courts are at a slightly higher level than what Struff produces, particularly they get onto the outdoor hard courts.

At times Struff can be very solid with a strong serve backed up by decent enough groundstrokes to put the pressure on his opponents. However those are times on the hard courts and too many times Struff finds it difficult to sustain those levels and the return of serve can be a real problem for the German.

The Sugita serve has been better than it may look because of the way this player has been able to play off the ground to make sure he wins enough points to keep his nose in front. However he has been the superior returner of the two players in this Second Round match and I think he can get the better of Struff in this pick 'em contest.

Three sets may be needed, but I will back Sugita to come through for a place in the Quarter Final in Dubai on Thursday.


Karen Khachanov v Lucas Pouille: This is a repeat of the of the Final played in Marseille a few days ago and I am going to back Karen Khachanov to frank his win over Lucas Pouille when they meet in Dubai.

Both players had to dig deep to come through their First Round matches on Tuesday, but the confidence of beating this opponent just a few days ago has to work in Khachanov's favour.

I am a big fan of the talented Russian and I think he is showing a lot more potential than Pouille who I don't rate as high as his World Ranking may suggest.

One of the biggest criticisms I have of Pouille remains the return of serve and winning enough points on that side of the court. He is going to have show something to do enough to trouble Khachanov who continues to serve at a high level, while the youngster has also shown some improvement when it comes to his own return of serve which is going to set him up for a big move up the World Rankings.

The target for Khachanov has to be a top 20 World Ranking by the end of this season and he is well on the way to that. Being able to back up title winning weeks like he had in Marseille with another strong showing in Dubai would underline that and I do think he can win a pick 'em match with his superior return numbers helping him past the Frenchman in conditions that should be far from alien to Khachanov who spends a lot of time in Dubai.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The South American Golden Swing has similar looking fields from week to week and it is no surprise when you get to see a couple of rematches at this time of the season.

We have another in the Second Round when Federico Delbonis and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez meet in Sao Paulo and I like the Argentine to make it back to back wins over the Spaniard.

It can be difficult to beat the same player in a short space of time simply because they have gotten a feel as to what to expect and can make a few adjustments to change things around. That is what Garcia-Lopez will be looking to do, but Delbonis has been serving well enough to keep him under some pressure, especially with the Garcia-Lopez serve having some vulnerabilities.

Garcia-Lopez has not been serving as well as he would have hoped in the last couple of weeks and that has highlighted a poorer than expected return of serve. It won't be easy to improve those numbers against Delbonis whose serve is still making sure he is able to hold enough times on this surface to then allow his return of serve game to flourish.

I expect this will be as tight as when they met in Buenos Aires which ended in a straight sets win for Delbonis, but one in which he only won eight more points than Garcia-Lopez. This one should be a little closer on the scoreboard, but I think the Delbonis serve and return has been more effective than Garcia-Lopez' and I expect that will eventually lead to a win for the Argentinian and with a cover of this number games.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a strong season in terms of results for Kevin Anderson who has reached the Final in Pune and won the inaugural title in New York earlier this month. However, Anderson will be the first to look for areas of improvement and there are a couple of places where he can become even stronger.

While the return points won are of a similar level to the last twelve months on this surface, Anderson is not breaking at the same kind of rate and that is where he will want to be a little more productive.

He should have chances to do that against Adrian Mannarino who has been dominant against players lower down the World Rankings, but whose numbers shrink the higher up the opponent is Ranked. That isn't a huge surprise, but there is a significant difference in the way the Frenchman is able to return against the top players and someone like Anderson is unlikely to offer up much of a reprieve with the way he has been playing.

The Mannarino serve can be a decent weapon with the lefty stance giving him an edge and meaning he can steer away from the more dangerous Anderson forehand. However he has struggled against the weight of the Anderson shot in the past and I think that could be a factor again against a confident opponent.

With a little bit more improvement in the return expected, I like Anderson to win and cover this number of games in the Second Round in Acapulco.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: These two players met at the Australian Open back in January and it resulted in a fairly comfortable win for Alexander Zverev. I expect him to get the better of compatriot Peter Gojowczyk in the Second Round in Acapulco too with the superior serve and return game giving him the edge.

However he will have to respect Gojowczyk who reached the Final in Delray Beach a few days ago and who has played well in 2018.

Gojowczyk has been producing enough quality behind his serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but that is going to be tested by the returning of Zverev who will believe he can get into enough rallies to beat his fellow German.

Ultimately it may come down to scoreboard pressure with Zverev capable of serving very well and making sure opponents do not get a lot of chances to break serve. It was the serve that really set the tone for his win over Gojowczyk at the Australian Open, while Zverev should be able to convert one or two chances to move ahead in sets.

The long week in Delray Beach could also play a part in this one and I will back Zverev to win and cover with a 7-6, 6-3 kind of victory in the Second Round.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The head to head between Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer may be led by the latter, but it is Del Potro who has gotten the better of recent matches and I think he can do that again in Acapulco.

David Ferrer had a very good win over Andrey Rublev in the First Round, but there is no hiding from the fact that his numbers have seriously declined. He will try and expose the Del Potro backhand, but I think Del Potro will get a good enough read on enough returns to put the pressure on his Spanish opponent from the off in some points.

Del Potro's serve has been a big weapon for him so far in 2018 in his run back into the top ten of the World Rankings, and I think he can use that to put pressure on Ferrer in this match.

The numbers have been very good for Del Potro and I think finding those levels will be enough to beat Ferrer again having already done that in Auckland this season. Del Potro has been returning well enough to think he will have a few chances to break the Ferrer serve and his own serve should restrict Ferrer's successes even if the latter is still a decent enough returner.

At the end of this one I would expect Del Potro to earn a break more in each set of a straight sets win and I will back him to cover these games.

MY PICKS: Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yuichi Sugita @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-7, - 8.90 Units (20 Units Staked, - 44.50% Yield)