Tennis Picks 2018 (February 23rd)

Thursday proved to be another very strong day with just one pick left to be played at the time of writing.

The other five picks all returned as winners to keep a strong week trending in a very positive direction and it also means back to back very good weeks to turn the 2018 season back around in a positive position.

In a long season this is certainly feeling like a strong portion with the last two weeks providing plenty of winners, but I am hoping the research continues to pay off as well as it has, although I do also recognise that I will have some tough moments when the luck is a little more negative than it has been.

Player are making use of their strong performances and turning those into wins for me and I looking for that to continue to round off another good week.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: Both Garbine Muguruza and Daria Kasatkina have been in very good form to reach the Dubai Semi Finals and both have deserved their place in the last four here.

Strong performances will give the players confidence in this Semi Final, although I am leaning towards Muguruza who reached the Final in Doha last week too and has opened up 2018 in fine form.

One of the key differences between the players which should make the difference is the ability behind serve that the two players have. Where Muguruza can be very dangerous when she is getting her first serves in, Kasatkina has had to work hard to protect her serve and that is going to be challenged by her opponent in this Semi Final.

There is a slight edge towards Kasatkina when it comes to the quality of return, but Muguruza is also very good on that side of the court. She should have a little more time to attack the Kasatkina serve too so I am liking the Spaniard to find moments where she can serve herself out of trouble while keeping the young Russian under immense pressure for much of the match.

They did play a really close match in Brisbane at the start of the 2017 season, but I like Muguruza to come through with a break more in the first two sets for a straight sets victory.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: I backed Karen Khachanov in the Second Round and he didn't disappoint when crushing Mischa Zverev for the loss of just three games.

That is yet another strong performance in 2018 from the young Russian and I think he can beat veteran Julien Benneteau in front of his home fans in Marseille in this Quarter Final.

Benneteau has a couple of strong wins under his belt already this week and also upset Roberto Bautista Agut in the Second Round. However there is little doubt he was very fortunate in that match and a similar level is not going to be good enough to win a match like this one.

His numbers in 2018 have begun slightly down on 2017 on the hard courts and Benneteau is going to be challenged by Khachanov who has dominated those players further down the World Rankings. The win over Zverev in the Second Round means Khachanov is 4-0 against players Ranked outside the top 50 this season.

As I mentioned yesterday, Khachanov has opened 2018 in much stronger form on the hard courts than he produce in 2017. Those numbers are even more impressive when playing those outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and I really like the way Khachanov has returned in those matches.

This will be tough facing a Frenchman in France, but I am going to back Khachanov to win and cover this number of games too.


Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: There have been some signs that Tomas Berdych has lost some of his edge on the tennis court, but he has been in good form to open 2018 and I think he can continue that in this Quarter Final.

Berdych had a very difficult time in the Second Round win in Marseille, but he did eventually win and the numbers have looked good for him in 2018. The serve is performing slightly better than it did on the hard courts in 2018, but importantly for Berdych he has been producing a much superior return which is helping him make a strong start to the season.

It won't be easy for Berdych to dominate completely against Damir Dzumhur who has played well enough to open the new season himself. This is the second Quarter Final he has reached on the hard courts and Dzumhur has a solid enough return that he will believe he can force Berdych into tough positions when facing the big serve from the Czech player.

The concern for Dzumhur will always be a serve that can be attacked and I think Berdych will get enough joy from that side of the court to get into a position to win this match in straight sets.

Dzumhur has not quite been able to cut it against the top 20 players over the last few years and his return is not quite as effective in those matches. That underlines the vulnerability of his own serve and I would expect Berdych to find a couple more breaks of serve than his opponent which should lead to a cover of this number of games.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: 2018 has not started as well as Steve Johnson would have liked, but he has played well in his two matches in Delray Beach and I think he can continue his progress through one more Round at least.

He will need to play at the kind of level he has shown already this week to see off Evgeny Donskoy, even if the latter has perhaps been a little fortunate to get past Donald Young.

Donskoy beat Roger Federer last year in Dubai so has shown what kind of talent he possesses, but it has been tough to replicate that and the majority of his successes have come against players lower down the Rankings. The numbers are severely impacted when Donskoy plays top 100 Ranked players, especially on the return of serve, and I am not convinced he will be able to get through as many difficult moments as he did in the win over Young earlier this week.

It has to be remembered that Johnson's return game is far from the best, but he has been seeing the ball big enough this week and the numbers have been much better than what you may usually expect from him. That momentum should be enough to at least put pressure on his opponents serve and I would expect the American to make it through to the Semi Final.

The number of games is one less than I was expecting from this match and I will back Johnson to come through with a cover of them.


Peter Gojowczyk - 2.5 games v Reilly Opelka: There are plenty of comparisons between Reilly Opelka and John Isner with the two tall Americans in possession of a monster serve, but perhaps not the best once you get them into a deep rally or on the return of serve.

In 2018 Opelka has shown some improvement in his return game, at least in the first couple of months of the year, and that potentially will see a huge jump in the World Rankings with a serve capable of taking the racquet out of anyone's hands.

However Peter Gojowczyk has been playing well at a higher level than Opelka and the experience of playing John Isner this week will have done him a lot of favours. He also beat Opelka twice in 2017 and the German has a serve that can make sure he is not giving his opponent too many opportunities to get in front of this one.

Gojowczyk did struggle with his return of serve in the win over Isner but he didn't offer too many chances up to break serve and I think knowing that kind of pace and how to deal with it will stand him in good stead in this one. Those wins over Opelka also came with a number of breaks of serve so I do think Gojowczyk will be able to make enough balls to at least force his opponent to play some solid tennis to win points.

Eventually that may see Opelka just break down and I think Gojowczyk can find the breaks of serve to make sure he can cover this number of games. It won't be easy with the German sometimes liable to throw in a terrible service game, but I am expecting him to look after that side of his game and come through a difficult assignment with a 7-6, 6-4 kind of win.


Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 games v Taylor Fritz: An all North American battle between two young players who are hoping to make a big impact in the years ahead looks to be a fascinating one.

I like the way both Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz approach their tennis with big time winners the way forward. Both possess solid serves which can set them up to put pressure on the opponents and I expect to see some fine tennis in this Quarter Final.

However I am surprised the layers have not placed too much between them considering Shapovalov's seemingly complete transition onto the main ATP Tour. While there is room for improvement from Shapovalov, he has been playing well at a higher level than Fritz who had some injury concerns over the last eighteen months which has curtailed his own progress.

Shapovalov has also been showing an improvement when it comes to the return of serve and that could see him make the next step in his progress to the top of men's tennis. While I am not underestimating how well Fritz has played in his two wins this week and the confidence he will have earned from a winning habit in 2018, I think his serve is the slightly more vulnerable and in a close match I am favouring the Canadian to come through.

Personally I had Shapovalov down as a bigger favourite than he is for this match and I will back him to win and cover against the young American Fritz in what should be a good looking match.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Peter Gojowczyk - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-6, + 19.44 Units (48 Units Staked, + 40.50% Yield)