Tennis Picks 2018 (February 22nd)

This has been a solid week after a number of successes on Wednesday, but there is still time for things to turn sour.

That means I have to make sure the research being put into these Tennis Picks continue to hit the mark as they have so far this week.

I've also had some fortune on my side which had been missing earlier in the season. A couple of breaks at key moments and players saving a host of break points was part of the strong day on Wednesday, but it feels like those situations are beginning to even up from some of the terrible luck I was having earlier this season.


On Thursday the Quarter Final matches at WTA Dubai will be completed, while the other four tournaments will complete their Second Round matches and set up their Quarter Final matches for Friday.

I am looking to keep the positive momentum going with these Tennis Picks.


Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Mischa Zverev: The first pick from Thursday will come from the ATP Marseille event and this is the first pick I am making from this tournament this week.

It isn't the deepest field, but this Second Round match looked intriguing even if Karen Khachanov has lost his two previous matches against Mischa Zverev.

I am a big fan of Khachanov and I think he is destined to be a top 10 player as he gains further experience on the Tour. His numbers in the early part of 2018 have been significantly improved compared to previous years, especially on the serve although Khachanov does have room for improvement when it comes to the break of serve.

However I think Khachanov can earn some opportunities against Zverev who has been struggling in 2018. I am still not completely convinced that Zverev is completely healthy as his service numbers have not been that impressive considering he has a big serve and looks to cut off angles at the net very quickly.

Zverev has returned a little better than I would expect from him, but I think he will have difficulty against Khachanov who is serving huge. I think the youngster can work through some tough moments to come through this Second Round match and he has been performing at a higher level than Zverev which should see Khachanov cover this number of games.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Jared Donaldson: There are a couple of really good young players on the ATP Tour who have already made an impact at the highest level. One of those is Denis Shapovalov who looks to potentially be the best of the 'Next Gen' of players coming through the Ranks and he is taking part in a Second Round match at Delray Beach on Thursday.

The serve is already a big weapon for Shapovalov and I think he can use that to put plenty of pressure on Jared Donaldson who simply has not been able to produce off that shot to the same level as the young Canadian.

Donaldson is also a young player with a decent future in the game, but I think he could be under some significant scoreboard pressure in this one.

Shapovalov does have room to improve when it comes to the return of serve, but I think he will have a few opportunities against Donaldson while also being able to limit the break point chances his opponent is able to create.

The hard courts are a very comfortable surface for Shapovalov and I think he can progress in straight sets which should be enough to earn a cover of this number of games.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: It is great to see Juan Martin Del Potro back amongst the very best players on the ATP Tour, although it is also clear that he is not quite up to the level he once was able to produce on the Tour.

Playing in Delray Beach has been a lot of fun for Del Potro having won the title once before and reaching the Semi Final in each of the last two seasons. His win over Jeremy Chardy came in impressive fashion and I think he will beat Frances Tiafoe in this Second Round match.

These two met at the Australian Open and it was a fairly comfortable day for Del Potro who won with at least one break in each of the sets in a straight sets victory. Del Potro has continued to serve very well, which will put his young opponent under pressure, and the return has been good enough to see opponents fall away mentally by the scoreboard pressure.

Tiafoe may have some more success having played Del Potro recently and knowing what he would need to do to make this a more competitive match. However he is still not producing to the same level as what Del Potro can and I would expect the Argentinian to find a way to earn at least a break more in a straight sets victory in this Second Round encounter.

The number of games to be covered is a big one in a best of three set match. However I do think Del Potro is going to be able to have enough break points to at least have a chance to do that and I like the way he has been playing so will back him to cover here.


Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Naomi Osaka: After winning her first set against Qiang Wang 6-1, it looked like Elina Svitolina would be able to move through to the Quarter Final much easier than it turned out being. She spent more time on court than she would have liked and Svitolina will feel she has to be better if she is going to beat Naomi Osaka in this match.

Osaka also spent longer on court than was perhaps needed as she blew a 5-2 lead in the second set of her own match before seeing off Anett Kontaveit in a second set tie-breaker. 

The Japanese player has been in good form in 2018, although it has to be said that she has struggled to remain competitive in her losses. She will be tested by Elina Svitolina even if she has won their last two matches because the latter is much stronger on the court than she was in 2016 when those matches were played.

Svitolina has the superior returning numbers which can be critical in a match where both players have decent serves and will be looking to earn plenty of cheap points.

I think Osaka will have her moments too, but Svitolina should be the stronger player with the better numbers on the day and I think that will help her win this Quarter Final and cover a number of games that I expected to be at least one higher than it is.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: After having to come through a really tough battle to beat Carla Suarez Navarro, Karolina Pliskova will know she is in for another difficult day when she faces Angelique Kerber in this Quarter Final.

While there are some similarities with the way Suarez Navarro and Kerber will approach things, the latter is a former World Number 1 who is playing very close to the level she produced in 2016 when getting to that position.

Kerber is perhaps a little vulnerable when it comes to her serve, but she has been able to protect it with strong defensive skills and the ability to quickly turn things from defence to attack. That is going to be an issue for Pliskova who can stumble when being asked to play more balls than she would normally be accustomed to.

The Czech player wasn't playing at her best on Wednesday and her own serve has been surprisingly attackable in recent matches. Pliskova will need to serve far better if she is going to win this match and I think that may be a big ask on current form.

She should have chances against the Kerber serve at times, but I think ultimately the defensive work from the German will help her win and cover in this Quarter Final.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Caroline Garcia: I had to add this pick later than the others simply because the markets had not been released with Garbine Muguruza finishing late in the day in Dubai.

It was actually late in the evening before the Spaniard was able to move through to the Quarter Final and my biggest concern has to be the recovery time between the Second Round win over Catherine Bellis and this Quarter Final against Caroline Garcia.

Even with that in mind, I expect Muguruza to frank her win over Garcia in Doha last week and I am looking for her to cover this win too.

She is being asked to cover the same number of games in this Quarter Final and she managed to do that after dropping the first set last week. However it was clear that Muguruza was the better return player on the day and I expect her to show off that side of her game in this match too.

As much as I like Garcia as a player, she is heavily reliant on the serve working to its best and someone like Muguruza should be able to crunch a few returns to put the Frenchwoman under pressure. Garcia has been serving well enough this week to beat the opponents she has, but I think this is a step up and her own return game is not as strong as some of the other players in the top 10 of the World Rankings.

I think that shows up here and sees Muguruza win and cover against Garcia for a second week in a row on the hard courts.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-5, + 12.94 Units (36 Units Staked, + 35.94% Yield)