Tennis Picks 2018 (February 19th)

Last week proved to be a really big one for the Tennis Picks and rounded off with another winner on Sunday which has made a huge hit on the season deficit.

It hadn't started well and I was wondering whether I needed to change what I have been doing, but finally the numbers started producing the results they have in the past and it is a confidence boost in the system used to select my picks.

This week we have five more tournaments beginning in Bucharest, Delray Beach, Dubai, Marseille and Rio de Janeiro with plenty of big names still out on the court. One of those is a big WTA event (Dubai) and another is the second ATP 500 event of the season (Rio) which means there are some big points on offer.

The situation this week will mean that I will generally have any picks from Bucharest, Dubai and Marseille up first with any from Delray Beach or Rio added to the thread. That is mainly down to scheduling and markets being released later for those two tournaments compared with the other three and I will only add any picks that do fit what I want.

Hopefully another solid week like the one that has just been put into the books can be recorded. That may even turn this season completely around and see if I can get into a position before the end of the month. It is a long season so I won't be 'chasing' picks to do that, but will try and keep the momentum behind me in a bid for another good week from the Tour.


Naomi Osaka v Kristina Mladenovic: There is going to be a drop in the World Ranking Kristina Mladenovic holds, but I am still surprised to see her inside the top 20 in those Rankings. That could all change in the weeks ahead of Mladenovic cannot improve her form as she has a boatload of points to defend through to the end of the French Open.

At the moment it is hard to see how Mladenovic is going to turn things around as she has been in poor form for some considerable time now. 2018 has not started much better for the Frenchwoman and I think she is going to be put under enough pressure by Naomi Osaka which can help the young Japanese player take what she will believe is a big scalp.

There is a lot to like about the Osaka game, but there is also no doubt she is still very learning. She hits the ball big and has some solid return numbers which should make life difficult for Mladenovic though and I also don't like the way the latter has been playing in recent weeks.

Mladenovic has surprisingly poor numbers on the hard court and I think her serve can be very vulnerable when she is not feeling at her best. In 2018 it is Osaka who has been producing the better results on the serve and I think that can be important for her to get through this First Round match where there isn't much between the players.

The Frenchwoman is just 4-17 in her last twenty-one matches and I think Osaka's slightly superior numbers in 2018 can lead to a win in this one with Mladenovic perhaps just playing the big points a little cautiously.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: It hasn't been the start to the season that Johanna Konta would have wanted, especially after the early loss at the Australian Open. However there were signs of her improved form at the Fed Cup before her two wins in Doha last week.

The numbers are backing that up and I think Konta is facing Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the right time with the Russian really struggling in the early part of 2018.

Pavlyuchenkova has not served as well as she would have liked, but the bigger concern has to be the poor return numbers. Now she faces an opponent who can be very hard to break down when serving at her best and I am looking for Konta to produce a solid enough serving day to make sure she can earn her place in the Second Round in Dubai.

The courts in Dubai do tend to play faster than most on the Tour and I think both Konta and Pavlyuchenkova hit big enough to cause the other problems. However the issues Pavlyuchenkova is having with her return has to give Johanna Konta the edge in the match and I think she can earn a break more in each set in a straight sets win.

I do think there is more to come from Pavlyuchenkova in the months ahead after a slow start to the 2018 season, but Konta should be too good for her in this First Round match on Monday.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The performances from Albert Ramos-Vinolas during this Golden Swing in South America have not been bad, but he has to be a little better at the big points to make life easier for himself.

I expect Ramos-Vinolas will be able to do that in this match against Rogerio Dutra Silva, although he will have to deal with the home crowd who should be firmly behind the latter.

However the step up to the main ATP level has been difficult for Dutra Silva despite how well he has played in the Qualifiers and Challenger level events. The numbers highlight that with the difficulty Dutra Silva has been able to have in the longer rallies that develop on the clay courts and I expect Ramos-Vinolas to be able to take advantage of that.

The key to this number of games is taking the chances when they are presented and Ramos-Vinolas has not been quite as effective with the break point chances he has had. I do like the fact that he is playing in a third clay court event now which means Ramos-Vinolas should be comfortable heading into this match though, and I think he will prove to be a little too good for Dutra Silva in a straight sets win.


Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: It was a memorable Australian Open for Tennys Sandgren on the court where he made his first big impact at the ATP level.

Things off the court were tougher as some decided to research into the tweets Sandgren had previously put on social media and he suffered something of a backlash. At least he can fly under the radar for a few weeks and concentrate on his tennis, although I won't be surprised if he is dealing with more questions once the Masters events hit Indian Wells and Miami next month.

For now Sandgren has to make use of a new high World Ranking which has meant he can enter events like this on in Rio de Janeiro without having to work through the Qualifiers. The problem is that he has yet to show much capability on the clay courts when he has stepped up to the higher level and now faces something of a specialist in Roberto Carballes Baena who won the title in Quito earlier this month.

The Spaniard has played well in 2018 on the clay courts and he has won a couple of Qualifiers here to keep some of the momentum going which has to help him here.

Of course there is some room for improvement with Carballes Baena needing to do better on the return of serve. He has been serving well enough to keep the pressure on Sandgren and I think the Spaniard can come through with a win and a cover in this one.


Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I remember when Marin Cilic and Carlos Berlocq met in their sole previous match because of the way Cilic was being irritated by the grunts from the Argentinian. At least this time Cilic will know what to expect and I think he will be too good for Berlocq even in his first match on the clay courts.

There are some questions about the adjustment to the clay courts which Cilic has to face compared with Berlocq who has played only clay court tennis this season. However Berlocq has struggled so far in 2018 with a couple of heavy First Round losses before winning two Qualifiers here.

He is going to be faced by a powerful returner in Cilic who was playing at a very high level on the clay courts last season. Cilic is capable of still getting plenty of cheap points off his own serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but it is his return of serve that has proved to be a huge weapon for him and I think that can help him get into a position to win and cover in this First Round match.

It might take a few games to get used to the clay court conditions, but I expect Cilic to move onto a roll once he does and have the majority of the opportunities to break serve.

Berlocq can be very good on his day, but he will have to stay in this mentally if he is going to earn the upset and I just think Cilic will drain him with the pressurised returns and that should lead to enough breaks of serve to cover this number of games.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Playing at home should give Thomaz Bellucci a boost in confidence, but it has been a tough few months for the Brazilian. Injury hasn't helped him, but Bellucci may feel he is about to turn a corner having put a few wins together in Buenos Aires last week.

This is not the best match up for him though as Fabio Fognini has beaten Bellucci in all four previous matches and all of those have come on the clay courts.

The Italian can be a hard player to back with his erratic nature meaning it can be difficult to know what to expect from him on any given day. However he does seem to reserve his best performances for the clay courts and Fognini will feel in a good place mentally in facing this opponent.

Fognini is also someone who can be inspired by the passion of the crowd and it should be a good atmosphere with a home player in this First Round match. I do think Bellucci will have his chances at times as Fognini's serve can be very vulnerable on most surfaces and even more so on the clay courts.

He will have to work hard to protect the serve and I think that is where Bellucci can have some success on the return. However Bellucci's serve is yet to return to the level it once was and I think Fognini is able to win and cover in a match that features a few breaks of serve for both players.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Season 2018: - 6.90 Units (230 Units Staked, - 3% Yield)