Tennis Picks 2018 (February 20th)

There is still a couple of matches to be played on Monday while I am writing this post which will determine whether it has been a good start to the week or not.

I will update the 'weekly total' on Tuesday once all the matches are in the books, but for now I am concentrating on the Tuesday Tennis Picks from the five tournaments being played and the completion of the First Round.


Elise Mertens - 1.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Two young players with a bright future on the WTA Tour meet for the first time in the pro Ranks as Elise Mertens and Catherine Bellis face off in the First Round in Dubai.

It has all the makings of a close match and the layers feel the same with Mertens down as a narrow favourite even though Bellis had a strong run in Doha last week.

Bellis came through the Qualifiers before her run to the Quarter Final, but she has been a little hit and miss on the main Tour with her performances in the main draws she has entered being inconsistent. There is a lot to like about the Bellis game, but she is still developing and someone like Mertens has produced some solid results already in 2018.

The Belgian player won the title in Hobart and then reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and I am not too worried about her early loss in Doha last week. Overall the numbers Mertens is producing are very positive and I think she is going to be the slightly stronger player both in terms of the serve and return.

However this match could easily need the full three sets to decide a winner as Mertens is yet to really control matches from start to finish. I do think she will eventually prevail and also have enough to cover this number of games too.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Anyone who doesn't understand how hard Barbora Strycova can make life for any player on the Tour needs to watch some of the matches in which she competes. Strycova is someone who will work hard until the final point is played while she is also very capable of rallying with the top players.

Angelique Kerber will tell you the same thing despite having a dominant head to head against Strycova.

The German is close to getting back to her very best level, but Kerber continues to produce a vulnerable serve which can see her opponents put her under pressure. That is likely to be the case against Strycova whose movement and defensive skills may extract some errors from the Kerber game and give her chances to break serve and keep this match close.

The reason I am backing Kerber is that her numbers to open 2018 have been very strong on the return of serve and I think she is the superior player off the ground in this match. Her own defensive skills have been close to her highest level and I think Kerber will be able to attack the Strycova second serve which should give her plenty of chances of her own to break serve.

Kerber has also produced slightly better numbers all around on her serve compared with last season which should mean she can hold enough times to work through to the Second Round with a cover of this number of games.


Caroline Garcia - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: Any player that reaches the top 10 of the World Rankings has to be respected but I still feel there is more Caroline Garcia can get out of her game.

She seems to have got the service side of things going in the right direction, but Garcia's problem remains the return of serve and making sure she is being far more effective on that side of the court. Against the very best players on the Tour I feel that is where Garcia comes up short and perhaps it also makes matches a little more difficult for her than some should be.

Her return will be tested to the full by Lucie Safarova who has continued to produce one of the more effective serves on the Tour. Even in matches against the better players on the Tour Safarova can be tough to break, but we have seen her return game really suffer in those matches too.

That could be the difference in this one as Garcia may not need a lot of breaks of serve to move into a position to cover this number of games. As long as Garcia serves to the standard she has set for herself, I think she can keep Safarova from being able to really get on the front foot against her and that should see her exert the mental pressure which will help create openings.

I think the first set is likely to be very closely contested and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tie-break separate things, but I think Garcia wins the battle of the two solid servers and she can cover this number.


Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: This is the time of the season when Thiago Monteiro seems to play his best tennis and there are a couple of tournaments in his home country where he can thrive. The clay courts are the favoured surface and the conditions in South American should suit Monteiro very much.

His numbers could have been better, but Monteiro is a real battler during this time of the season and that has seen him come back in matches even when it looks like he should be beaten.

Monteiro will need all the fight he has when he takes on Pablo Cuevas who is something of a clay court specialist with his best results coming on this surface. Like Monteiro, Cuevas should enjoy the South American Golden Swing even though he was disappointed to be beaten so early in Buenos Aires at the hands of Gael Monfils last week.

Monfils is a player who has troubled Cuevas throughout their careers, but that should not be the case this week. The Uruguayan has a decent serve which is going to put the pressure on Monteiro, especially with the poor return numbers of the latter, and I think Cuevas has a little more ability on the return to hold the edge in the match.

It is a tough number of games to cover if Cuevas is not at his best and with the way Monteiro should be able to be fight and be energised by the home crowd. However I think ultimately Cuevas will find a couple of more breaks of serve than his opponent which should see him get over this number.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: The South American Golden Swing could not have gone any worse for Pablo Carreno Busta who has lost in his first match in Quito and Buenos Aires.

Last week he was a little unfortunate to lose to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, but Carreno Busta has to be hoping to get things turned around having been in poor form for much of the time since the run to the US Open Semi Final.

You would think the return to the clay courts would have helped Carreno Busta who has some very nice numbers on the surface, but so far he has been unable to produce a win.

Carreno Busta could not have asked for better than facing Marco Cecchinato in the First Round in Rio de Janeiro even though the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts and has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw. However Cecchinato has struggled when it comes to playing main draw matches at the ATP level, even on the clay courts, and he has found his serve attacked while being unable to win as many return points as he would like.

That may be the reason for another defeat on Tuesday as Cecchinato is going to be put under pressure by Carreno Busta's ability to return on the clay courts. This time I will be looking for Carreno Busta to just hold himself together mentally in this match and work his way to a relatively straight-forward win in the First Round while covering this number of games.


Dominic Thiem - 5.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: One of the best clay court players in the world continues to underline his status as Dominic Thiem won the title in Buenos Aires last week. He now heads to Rio de Janeiro to win another title and I am not worried about Thiem's fitness at this stage of the season when he tends to play his best tennis.

The first half of the Tour is when Thiem is at his best and even producing top tennis in back to back weeks is not something that concerns me about the Austrian. Some players can struggle for that consistency having played as much tennis as Thiem had to up until the Final in Buenos Aires on Sunday, but he has had considerable success on the Golden Swing in past years.

Thiem has a strong record against Dusan Lajovic which includes a relatively straight forward win here in Rio last year. On that day Thiem was the dominant player on the numbers too and he has shown he is very strong at protecting his serve and finding the pressure to put on opponents on the return of serve on this surface.

I do think Lajovic can be a tough out when he is playing at his best, but Lajovic is going to be have to weather some really difficult moments if he is going to challenge Thiem.

Ultimately I think Thiem is playing at a very high level on this surface and I think he can find the breaks of serve to record an impressive win in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Elise Mertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49% Yield)