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Wednesday, 14 February 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 14th)

There may have been a host of tennis matches to be played on Tuesday, but so many seemed to be tight on the handicaps that it was too difficult to find any angles I really liked.

A part of that may be down to me wanting to be a little more careful with my selections after having some really 'hard luck' losses where players have not covered from really strong positions.

It happened on Monday as Federico Delbonis served for a routine 7-6, 6-3 win to cover a 3.5 game handicap- he was broken to love after playing four terrible points and then broke in the next game to win the match 7-6, 6-4 and it is one of those situations which frustrates more than anything else.

Add in the way some of the Saturday selections went down and it has just made me second guess some of my selections- ultimately I look at the way those picks went down and I can say they were the 'right' picks which will win more often than not barring some really unfortunate endings to matches.

On Wednesday it is another busy day of tennis with the WTA tournament in Doha particularly long as they complete the majority of the Second Round matches in one day. With the Final set for Saturday, that tournament will have a lot of matches scheduled early in the week, but I haven't found any picks of real interest even with some of the top names on the WTA Tour in action.

Any picks from Buenos Aires and New York will be added to this thread on Wednesday morning.

Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: He may not be the force he once was, but Tomas Berdych is in a better place than his similarly declining opponent Victor Troicki.

The numbers back that up with Berdych still possessing the superior serve and return game although Troicki has to be respected as someone who can produce big tennis when he is completely focused.

However Troicki has always been a player that the top players should be comfortable playing against. When he serves well he can be tough, but Troicki is also just as likely to throw in a couple of sloppy service games which can allow Berdych to take control of this match.

Berdych beat Mischa Zverev fairly comfortably after a slow start in his First Round match in Rotterdam and he has dominated the head to head against Troicki. Hopefully he doesn't make as slow a start as Monday and avoiding that should mean Berdych is able to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win in this Second Round match.

Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: The World Number 1 position could be back in the hands of Roger Federer at the end of the tournament in Rotterdam and his taking a Wild Card into the event should mean motivation is high.

There were a couple of really poor results for Federer in what was otherwise a dominant 2017 and my only concern is that the former World Number 1 is not as strong when it comes to the break points in this match as he could be. Otherwise you have to think Federer is going to be far too good for Ruben Bemelmans.

Bemelmans has come through the Qualifiers which can build confidence, but Federer's numbers on the hard courts have been really impressive in recent months and I can't see how the Belgian can challenge him.

The Bemelmans serve is not as dominant as the Federer one and he won't get as many break point opportunities as the latter.

If Federer finds his form early, he should be good enough to win this match and clear the big handicap that is in front of him.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.4 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.14% Yield)

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