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Tuesday, 20 February 2018

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 20-22)

I have not really ever been a fan of the way the Last 16 of the Champions League is played over four weeks, but I guess it does allow for fans to see more of the Second Round ties.

It might have something to do with waiting until last for Manchester United to get their Second Round First Leg underway- patience is a virtue, but not when you just want to get the Champions League going again after waiting two months.

The English clubs all had a good first week back in European action with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured a place in the next Round after recording thumping away wins. Tottenham Hotspur are also the favourites to see off Juventus after coming from 2-0 down in Turin, but now the attention turns to Chelsea and Manchester United.

Both teams face difficult challenges from Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and these two are involved in the stand out ties of the week in the Champions League.

On Thursday the attention will turn to the completion of the Europa League Last 32 Round with the draw for the Last 16 made on Friday.


Monday night proved to be of huge significance in England as Wigan Athletic shocked Manchester City by beating them in the FA Cup yet again. That's the third time in six seasons The Latics have beaten Manchester City in this Cup and it ended all talk of the Quadruple for the latter.

It just goes to show how big an achievement it was for the Manchester United 1998/99 team to go on and win 'The Treble' (I mean the real Treble too) and Manchester City are under some pressure now to add to the Premier League that they have had in control for a couple of months.

This weekend they face Arsenal in the League Cup Final and another defeat in a domestic Cup competition can't be contemplated by the fans.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the decisions Jose Mourinho has to make to get the best out of his top players. That can be read here and was written in the days after the 1-0 loss to Newcastle United.

Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.


Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.

The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.

The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.

Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.

However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.

Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.

I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.


Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.

Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.

There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.

No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.

Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.

Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.

Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.

Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.

Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.

Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.


Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.

The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.

Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.

That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.

Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.

However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.

Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.

Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.

It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.

They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.

Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.

If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.

Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.

The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.

They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.

AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.

It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.


Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.

It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.

However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.

This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.

It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.


Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.

Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.

It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.

Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.

All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.

With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.

Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.

I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.

The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.

However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.

I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.

I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.


Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.

The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.

That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.

We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.

Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.

Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.


Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.

It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.

What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.

Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.

My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.

There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

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