Weekend Football Picks 2018 (February 24-25)

The Premier League is back after a two week 'break' for those teams who were not involved in European action or the FA Cup Fifth Round last weekend.

For the top teams it remains a busy time, but for others it has been a chance to perhaps get some things straightened to make sure all of the goals for the 2017/18 season can be achieved.


The European Champions League Last 16 First Leg ties were all completed during the week and you can begin to see the Quarter Final of that competition develop.

It would be a massive surprise if Manchester City, Liverpool and Bayern Munich don't make it through with four and five goal leads from their First Leg ties. Then you would say Tottenham Hotspur and Barcelona have a slight advantage thanks to away scoring draws, and Manchester United have an even narrower advantage over Sevilla.

Both the Shakhtar-Roma and PSG-Real Madrid ties look finely balanced with the two home teams in the Second Leg behind, but with one away goal under their belt.

Things are certainly heating up nicely in the Champions League with the Quarter Final draw just three weeks away.


It is another big round of fixtures in the Premier League this weekend with huge implications in the race for the top four spots and also the relegation battle. Points rather than performances are most important at this time of the season, although it is also when you can begin to take note of those teams who are picking up some momentum and close to a positive run of form compared with others who begin to feel sorry for themselves in whatever situation they find themselves.

The first domestic silverware of the season is also up for grabs on Sunday in another big weekend of Football.


Leicester City v Stoke City Pick: The opening game in the Premier League comes from the King Power Stadium this weekend and the television cameras will bring the game to a wider audience. It is a big game for Stoke City who are trying to desperately stay in touch with the teams above them and give themselves a chance to escape relegation to the Championship.

The last set of Premier League games could not have gone much worse for Stoke City- they missed a last minute penalty to record a win over Brighton and then saw relegation rivals Newcastle United, Huddersfield Town and Swansea City all record big home wins.

There is still only 2 points between Stoke City in 19th place and and Crystal Palace in 15th, but games like this one have to be circled by Paul Lambert as ones where Stoke City have to win. The next two weekends are huge for Stoke City with a trip to Southampton up next, but there may be some confidence coming in with some improved performances under Paul Lambert.

I am sure Stoke City would have preferred this visit to Leicester City later in the season when the home team may have lost a bit of focus with other things on their mind. However this is a tough time to visit a team who have played well at home in recent weeks with 4 wins from 5 games at the King Power Stadium and a Leicester City team who are still very much focused on a top seven finish in the Premier League.

Visits to Leicester City have been tough for Stoke City with back to back losses here without scoring a goal. I do think Stoke City have shown a little more attacking intent under Lambert's guidance, but defensively they have remained a work in progress and Leicester City should feel they can take advantage of that.

Games between these teams in the last couple of years have been high-scoring, although mainly at the Bet365 Stadium. I think there will be chances for both teams in this one with the edge going to Leicester City, although they look plenty short to win this fixture having drawn 1-1 with Swansea City in their last League game here.

Stoke City have conceded at least twice in 7 of their last 9 away games in all competitions, but they have also scored in 8 of their last 11 on their travels. This has the makings of a game that could feature at least three goals in the live early Saturday afternoon slot and I think both teams can score at least once in this one.

The 1-1 is a concern, but Stoke City will look for a win here and Leicester City have been playing well enough at home to expect to win too. That should mean the teams are not looking to settle for a point and I will back three or more goals to be shared out on Saturday.


Bournemouth v Newcastle United Pick: These two teams had contrasting results when they last played a competitive game thirteen days ago with Bournemouth being crushed at Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United stunning Manchester United at St James' Park.

Eddie Howe will be expecting to see a big reaction from his Bournemouth players who had been in fine form in the Premier League prior to that loss at the John Smith's Stadium. The Cherries had won 3 of 4 Premier League games prior to that defeat and this is a team who have won their last 3 League games at the Vitality Stadium so you can understand why they go into this fixture as the favourite.

However you have to respect a Newcastle United team who have been in decent shape away from home in recent weeks. They have lost 3 of their last 7 away Premier League games, but all of those came at one of the teams in the top six.

In that same run of 7 games, Newcastle United have earned draws at West Brom and Crystal Palace while winning at West Ham United and Stoke City so they clearly can thrive when playing the lesser lights in the Premier League.

Keeping clean sheets has been a problem for Newcastle United though, which is a surprise considering Rafa Benitez is in charge, and Bournemouth have scored at least twice in their last 4 home games in the League. On the other side of the field, Newcastle United have scored in 7 of their last 8 away League games and face a Bournemouth team who have conceded in 7 straight home League games.

The 1-1 is a distinct possibility in this fixture, but I think the teams can combine for another goal, at least, and that looks a big price with the layers pricing up three or more goals at odds against. Games between Bournemouth and Newcastle United have been tight in the last three years including a 0-1 win for The Cherries earlier this season, but recent performances from both teams suggest this will buck that trend.

7 of the last 8 Bournemouth home League games have seen three or more goals shared out, while 5 of the last 8 Newcastle United away games have done the same. With both teams desperate for the three points I can see an attacking game develop on Saturday, although I do have a slight concern they could settle for a 1-1 if that score is on the board with 10 minutes remaining.

Even then, I think the odds against quote for three or more goals is too big to ignore and I will back goals in this Premier League game.


Brighton v Swansea City Pick: The FA Cup Quarter Final draw has paired Brighton with Manchester United and that will have raised some memories of the 1983 FA Cup Final that Brighton competed in against Manchester United. That came in the same season that Brighton were relegated from the top flight of English Football and Chris Hughton has made it clear the Cup run comes secondary to Premier League survival.

Winning a third home game in all competitions would give Brighton a huge shot in avoiding relegation to the Premier League and there is no doubting the importance of this fixture for both clubs involved.

Brighton have shown decent form at home, but will want to turn a few of the draws into wins. However they have been difficult to beat here with their 3 League losses coming against sides in the top four of the Premier League table and now face a Swansea City team who have toughened up in recent weeks.

The majority of the big Swansea City results have come at the Liberty Stadium though and they have drawn 5 away games in a row. 3 of those have come against lower League opposition so Brighton have to feel they have started producing the goals at home which can help them win this fixture.

It does feel like this will be a close game and a single goal could easily be enough to earn the three points. Both teams have had some confidence boosting results of late, but I think home advantage could be key for Brighton and they can narrowly get past their visitors.

Of course you have to respect the results Swansea City have earned in recent weeks as they have grown full of belief under Carlos Carvalhal. They are also unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions, but Swansea City don't score a lot of away goals and I think that is a reason Brighton can do enough to win this one with decent defensive performances at the Amex Stadium.

I will back Brighton on the Asian Handicap which at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw, which is a possibility in a fixture between two teams with little between them. However I do think Brighton have been creating enough chances in recent weeks to earn the victory and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: A stunning Champions League performance in Portugal has put Liverpool almost certainly through to the Quarter Final of that competition, but Jurgen Klopp's aim is to make sure they are playing in it again next season. The most favourable way of doing that is by finishing in the top four of the Premier League and this is a big game for Liverpool.

Most will be expecting them to be far too strong for West Ham United and that will be a big result for Liverpool on the same weekend that two of the other three contenders for the top four positions play each other at Old Trafford.

Either Manchester United or Chelsea are going to be dropping points so it is imperative for Liverpool to win this game and earn an advantage for the top four positions behind Manchester City.

The home team should be too good for West Ham United, although too many draws at Anfield has been a concern for Liverpool this season. All but one of those draws has come against teams in the top half of the table though so the expectation will be that Liverpool can beat a West Ham United team who haven't been in the best form of late.

David Moyes will have been pleased with the 2-0 win over Watford though and he is also going to have a couple of key players return to the squad which is very important at this critical stage of the season. You know he will have been working on West Ham United to be well disciplined in this one and try and make life as difficult for Liverpool as possible and Moyes has overseen some solid results for West Ham United.

His side were narrowly beaten at Manchester City and earned a draw at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur and I do think they are getting a generous start on the Asian Handicap in this one. A two goal loss would return the stake and anything better than that would be a winner for West Ham United who will close space and try and hurt Liverpool on the counter attack.

Liverpool are a team who can blow opponents away, which makes it dangerous to oppose them, but West Ham United have a decent recent record at Anfield. Coupled with those tough performances at the Etihad Stadium and Wembley Stadium and having had two weeks to work on a defensive shape, I am going to take West Ham United with the start on the Asian Handicap in this one.

Recent results have not been very good for David Moyes' men, but they have a couple of key performers back and I think they are worth taking with the start.


West Brom v Huddersfield Town Pick: Taxi-gate should be behind West Brom now, but Alan Pardew will only believe that is the case if his players can turn some of their recent performances in positive results in the Premier League.

With the other clubs around the relegation zone all finding some big wins in recent weeks, West Brom have been on a poor run of defeats which has left them looking like they have been cut off at the bottom of the table. The next few weeks are key for West Brom as they face a number of their relegation rivals beginning with this game at The Hawthorns on Saturday when they host Huddersfield Town.

Anything less than a win would likely be curtains for West Brom as far as being a Premier League club goes, but this is the kind of fixture I think they can win.

As well as Huddersfield Town have played this season, they have struggled for goals away from home and they are not the same team away from the John Smith's Stadium. In recent weeks they have lost at Leicester City and Stoke City, although David Wagner will believe his side are full of confidence after hammering Bournemouth 4-1 at home in their last League game.

Unfortunately for Wagner, he will need to see a much better defensive performance than Huddersfield Town have produced in recent weeks if they are going to earn a result here. They should give West Brom chances and the home team have had plenty of opportunities in recent games which have been squandered.

The poor finishing is a concern for Alan Pardew and the fans as West Brom have created the chances to earn better results than they have in recent weeks. The home form has been poor which is also a negative against them, but I think West Brom have been close to earning a big result and I like their chances to earn that this weekend.

It will likely be a close and tough fought battle, but I am going to back West Brom to earn the three points. The Huddersfield Town struggles in the final third have seen them score 7 of their 8 away Premier League goals in 2 of their 13 away League games and I think West Brom can do enough at both ends of the field to win this one against a team that have struggled for clean sheets of late.


Watford v Everton Pick: The second live televised game from the Premier League comes from Vicarage Road this weekend and both Watford and Everton should be able to play with relative freedom for the neutrals tuning in.

Both Javi Gracia and Sam Allardyce are perhaps known for their defensive organisation more than their attacking intent, but both have good players in the final third who will feel they can get the better of their opposition.

Scoring goals has been something of a problem for Watford, but the majority of those issues have come away from home. At Vicarage Road they have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, while Watford have not had a clean sheet in 7 home games in the Premier League.

That should mean there are some chances at both ends especially with Everton having a few problems defensively that Sam Allardyce has yet to resolve. It is something of a surprise that Everton have not had a clean sheet in any of their last 8 games in all competitions, but they have managed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games.

It feels like both teams will be able to get on the scoreboard in this one, which has happened in 4 of the 5 games between Watford and Everton since The Hornets returned to the top flight. 3 of those 5 games have featured three or more goals and I think the performances of both of these teams in recent weeks suggests this could be another game that goes in that direction.

There has been two weeks to work on defensive organisation for both teams, but I still anticipate there will be enough chances for both teams to help combine for three or more goals here. The odds against quotes certainly look too big for that to happen and I will take on the layers in this market.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game has been moved forward by a day because of Tottenham Hotspur's need for a FA Cup Fifth Round Replay to try and see off Rochdale from League One.

The attention will be completely on an important Premier League game as Tottenham Hotspur look to maintain their push for a top four finish on the same day Chelsea and Manchester United meet at Old Trafford. Taking advantage of one of their top four rivals dropping points is very important, but Tottenham Hotspur have not been able to find wins away from home in recent weeks.

They have drawn their last 5 away games including at Newport County and Rochdale and that has to encourage Crystal Palace even though Roy Hodgson is dealing with a long injury list.

Crystal Palace have been strong at home, but missing the likes of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Hodgson as his team are still trying to produce a gap between themselves and the bottom three. Depending on results on Saturday, Crystal Palace could even find themselves in the bottom three by the time this game kicks off and they will need to show their toughness at Selhurst Park in this one.

The Eagles have created chances at this ground and I expect they can pose a few problems for a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not had too many clean sheets on their travels in recent weeks. However this Tottenham Hotspur team are playing with the confidence to think they can hurt Crystal Palace when going forward and both teams will feel they can play a part in this one.

The layers are full of belief that there will be goals in this fixture, but they have underestimated the chances of both teams to be involved in the scoring. The last 5 Tottenham Hotspur away games have seen both teams score and Crystal Palace have scored in 10 of their last 11 home games with only a missed penalty against Manchester City providing the exception.

Even without Zaha I think Crystal Palace can have joy going forward, but 2 clean sheets in 10 home games suggests Tottenham Hotspur will also have success. Backing both teams to score at just under odds against looks the play this weekend.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: The television cameras will be fully focused on the sideline and hoping to see something between Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte who are meeting for the first time since a very personal spat played out in the media in January.

While there is clearly going to be some lingering tension from some of the words spoken by both men, both Mourinho and Conte will recognise the importance of getting their tactics right in this huge Premier League game with top four implications.

Tactically both managers were almost perfect in Champions League action during the week although Conte was unfortunate to see his Chelsea team fail to beat Barcelona at Stamford Bridge. Manchester United were less keen to get on the front foot in their draw in Sevilla but will be more satisfied with the draw that gives them the slight advantage when it comes to the Second Leg next month.

I fully expect this Premier League game to be a bit of a chess game between two managers who are very good at setting up their teams to be difficult to beat. It is no surprise that games between Manchester United and Chelsea over the last eighteen months with Mourinho and Conte at the helm have been mainly tight affairs.

There is the 4-0 win for Chelsea to consider, but the next three games between these clubs have provided four goals in total and I am not sure there will be a lot in this one either.

Manchester United have played low-scoring home games against Tottenham Hotspur (twice), Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in the Premier League since Mourinho took over. Only once have Manchester United scored more than one goal in those home games, while they only scored once each time in their two home games against Manchester City in that time too.

Chelsea did have high-scoring games at Arsenal twice this season in the Premier League and League Cup and they also combined for three goals at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur. However those games against Mourinho and Manchester United stand out as the exception with Conte looking to match him tactically and I can see both teams trying to contain the other before trying to work their own attacks into the equation.

I imagine Mourinho will look to stop Eden Hazard from having a big impact in the game like he did in the Manchester United home win over Chelsea last season. On the other side I think Conte will play a false nine as he did against Barcelona and try and use the speed of three attacking forwards in Willian, Hazard and Pedro to hit Manchester United on the counter attack.

An early goal could change the entire approach of the game as it did when Chelsea beat Manchester United 4-0 at Stamford Bridge last season. However the more likely situation is both teams looking to avoid making a mistake and making life as difficult for their opponents in this match and so the under 2.5 goals looks the obvious play.

The layers recognise that with that market very short in the prices, but they may be taking a chance by offering odds against that one, or both, of these teams fails to score. All four games between Chelsea and Manchester United in the last eighteen months have seen one of the teams fail to score, while a deeper look shows 9 of the last 12 between these clubs have seen that market hit.

I hope to see better from Manchester United as an attacking threat in this one, but I won't be surprised if one or both of these teams fails to score in a tactical game. One goal may be enough for someone to secure a vital three points and I will take the odds against quotes for one of the teams to fail to score here.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: Arsene Wenger and Pep Guardiola will familiarise themselves with one another over the next few days as Arsenal get set to take on Manchester City in the League Cup Final and then the Premier League at the Emirates Stadium.

First up is the League Cup Final at Wembley Stadium where Arsenal have a strong recent record in Cup competitions including beating Manchester City 2-1 after extra time in the FA Cup Semi Final last season.

This looks a different Manchester City team though and it is going to take a huge effort and perhaps a sprinkling of luck for Arsenal to prevent the first piece of silverware heading back to the North West on Sunday evening.

Manchester City should be eager to come out and make up for the 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic on Monday night in the FA Cup which has ended all hopes of the Quadruple. A treble of trophies is still on for Guardiola, but the pressure is on Manchester City to add something to the Premier League title they have had in their grasp for weeks.

Guardiola will urge his players not to panic though and Manchester City will believe imposing their style of football on this fixture will likely result in a victory for them. They will look to dominate the ball and try and work around an Arsenal defence that never seems too far away from a collapse, even if they have produced some big performances at times this season.

Generally Arsenal have struggled at the back, particularly away from the Emirates Stadium, and Manchester City certainly have the team to punish them. With an almost full squad to choose from and plenty of rest in the legs, Manchester City will be expected to break down Arsenal, but I am not anticipating a one sided game in this Final.

There is still some genuine quality that Arsenal can call upon in the attacking third and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has to believe he can use his speed to terrify the Manchester City backline. Mistakes are being made by Manchester City, and they are being punished every time they do make one, while Arsenal will look to be very direct on the counter attack with some classy passers who can open things up for shots on goal.

I don't think it should surprise anyone that Arsenal have scored in 11 games in a row against Manchester City and they have scored twice inside 90 minutes in 7 of those games. Wenger is not likely to want his side to sit back and try and soak up pressure, but will demand they break with pace and try and get after the Manchester City back line and I think that could pay off for them with one or two goals.

Defensively it is hard to see Arsenal keep Manchester City out and I think the latter will have a positive reaction to losing at the DW Stadium on Monday night. There is plenty of attacking talent on show and I am not surprised that half of the 4 games played between these teams since Guardiola has taken over have resulted in at least four goals shared out.

I am anticipating another high-scoring game here with both teams likely to score and the possibility for spaces to open up in the last half an hour. With the way both managers tend to approach their football, I wouldn't think either team is going to want to sit back and wait for things to happen and a positive League Cup Final could see four goals hit between these teams.

The edge has to be given to Manchester City on their season's work, but Arsenal won't roll over here and there are some questions for Manchester City to answer after surprisingly exiting the FA Cup. Arsenal's recent record at Wembley Stadium makes them dangerous to oppose here too, so I will simply look for four or more goals to be scored in the Final.

MY PICKS: Leicester City-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth v Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Watford-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Chelsea Both Teams NOT to Score @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)