The home teams dominated the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs and there are three big favourites hosting in the Divisional Round.
However, two of those are playing after Bye Weeks and so the road underdogs travelling to Kansas City and Detroit may hope that their own rhythm gives them a chance for the upset.
In reality it is going to be tough for any of the first three road teams going up, but the last game of the Divisional Round between Buffalo and Baltimore could be an epic... It is the game of the weekend and one that all are looking forward to as we finalise the last four teams standing ahead of the Championship Sunday coming up.
The NFL Picks moved back in a positive direction with a 4-2 return last week, but there is some frustration with the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew their chances to beat the Washington Commanders.
That was the sole home defeat in the Round, but it is still always nice to return a positive number and the hope is to kick on through the Divisional Round as we move into that time of the season when there are just seven games left until September.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC might be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoff after a Bye Week, but they will both be playing on Saturday.
First up is the AFC Number 1 Seed the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) who are looking to make history over the coming weeks.
There is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of their dynasty with three Super Bowl rings in the last of the five seasons. However, they can really cement their names in the history of the NFL by winning the Super Bowl for a third year in a row, something that has never been done before despite some of the top teams that have been around.
Even winning consecutive Super Bowl Championships has placed Kansas City amongst some of the very best teams in history. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Andy Reid and Quarter Back Patrick Mahomes for continuing to motivate themselves for more, but this season there has to be a lot of credit given to the Chiefs Defensive unit for the incredible record put together.
The Chiefs have rode their luck at times, but they are going to be very tough to beat with Arrowhead behind them.
Resting their starters in Week 18 does mean it has been a considerable layoff for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is a team that have become used to earning Byes in the post-season. Last year was very different and the Chiefs got hot at a very good time, while there won't be many rushing to back the Houston Texans (11-7) to earn a second upset in a row.
Winning as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round will have given the Texans a boost, but this is a very tough game for them on the road and in what is expected to be very cold temperatures at Arrowhead. CJ Stroud has shown his qualities since entering the NFL, but one of those has not been performing in these kind of cold weather temperatures and it will be tough for the Texans, a Dome team.
The Texans will need the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit to make some plays, but the Defensive unit have to pick up from where they left off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Houston Defensive Line will feel they can contain the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground and put all of the pressure on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, although this is a Quarter Back who thrives when he has the game on his shoulders.
It has not been a vintage season for Patrick Mahomes and this Texans Secondary have played well behind some of the pressure they have generated up front. In saying all that, you know Mahomes is going to scramble and extend plays and he has a huge amount of trust in all of his Receivers that he will keep drives moving.
A key for the Texans is to try and generate pressure with the front four and see if they can leave when in coverage, but it will be tough to completely lock down Patrick Mahomes. Instead the Defensive unit have to try and give their Offense a chance in this one by at least stalling some Kansas City drives and keeping their team in the game.
Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the Houston Texans and so the play-calling has perhaps become more reliant on the run rather than CJ Stroud and the pass. Joe Mixon has been having a strong end to the season for Houston and the encouraging part, as far as they are concerned, is that the Chiefs Defensive Line has been allowing teams to move the chains.
They may try and strengthen up front to force CJ Stroud to have to take to the air with the main threat being Nico Collins, and there have been one or two holes that the Quarter Back may feel he can exploit in the Secondary.
Avoiding turnovers is absolutely key for Houston, who were beaten here at Arrowhead just days before Christmas. That was a game where Kansas City only had a little over 60 yards more than Houston and it was a competitive game for a long time, which is the expectation of this Divisional Round game.
You would think having the Bye has given the home teams a big advantage in the Divisional Round, but that has not been the case and those teams are 3-5 against the spread.
And for all of Patrick Mahomes' qualities, he is just 22-32-3 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 7 points. For a long time the Chiefs have done what is needed to win games, but blowing teams away is not really high on their list of agendas in each week and there is every chance they begin to look ahead to the AFC Championship Game if getting into a two score lead.
The cold weather continues to be a concern, but CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as the underdog and the Texans can control the Line of Scrimmage, which should allow them to keep this close on the scoreboard at the very least.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Pick: In Week 18 the Detroit Lions (15-2) were able to get the better of Divisional rivals Minnesota for a second time in the regular season and that secured the NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.
A Bye through to the Divisional Round has given the Lions an opportunity to rest and allow other players to recover from injuries so they can take part in what Detroit are hoping is a maiden run to the Super Bowl.
Home advantage is secured through to the Super Bowl, but there is some pressure on the Detroit Lions who have made it very clear that winning the Championship is their only ambition for the season.
Next up is the Washington Commanders (13-5) who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road last week, although the mistakes made by the Buccaneers at the end of that Wild Card game will haunt them through the off-season.
Jayden Daniels made some big plays late on, as he has throughout his rookie season, but it has been tough for rookie Quarter Backs to string wins together in the Playoff. The Commanders feel they have a special player behind Center, but this is another big test for Jayden Daniels and against the team many feel has been the best in the Conference all season.
Even as injuries have piled up, credit has to be given to the Lions for finding a way to clamp down on Offenses they have been facing.
The bend, don't break concept has worked for the Lions, but the first port of call for Detroit will be for the Defensive Line to play the run a little better than they have in recent games. Trying to keep the Commanders in third and long will give the Lions an opportunity to try and rattle Jayden Daniels, although the young Quarter Back has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and make his plays down the field even under pressure.
The Lions Secondary did give Sam Darnold problems in Week 18, but this is arguably a tougher test and they have given up enough yards through the air to offer Jayden Daniels and company plenty of encouragement.
Washington's own Defensive Line have played well in recent games and that is going to be key for them in this big road game in the Divisional Round. However, they have rarely been up against a powerful Offensive Line like the one that Detroit will be bringing onto the field.
David Montgomery is back and the 'Sonic and Knuckles' combination when coupled with Jahmyr Gibbs will make it very difficult for the Commanders to keep tabs on the Lions.
That same Offensive Line has offered plenty of pass protection for Jared Goff too and giving the Quarter Back a bit of time in the pocket could see the Lions make some big plays down the field. The ability to run the ball opens up play-action, quick strike Football and the Lions are going to be very confident behind Jared Goff.
The Quarter Back has a 34-13-1 record against the spread when playing indoors for the Detroit Lions, while the game plan for this one should be well executed for a Head Coach who has an 11-2 record against the spread when having preparation time.
Historically the Lions have not been a team you want to back to cover big spreads, especially when facing teams with a winning record. However they covered in the post-season last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a biggish favourite and Detroit might just show their talent edge in this one against the overachieving Washington Commanders.
This is a big line though and Jayden Daniels can do enough to secure a backdoor cover with his own ability at Quarter Back.
Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points have a 26-17-1 record against the spread in this Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the Commanders can do enough to avoid the blowout. Teams that missed the Playoff the previous year have a 28-14 record against the spread in the Divisional Round and Washington may make use of this big number, even if it means opposing strong records that Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have put together.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: When you have a Head Coach and a Quarter Back who have won the Super Bowl together, you will always have a chance to make an impact in the post-season.
Despite being set as the underdog, the Los Angeles Rams (11-7) crushed the fourteen win Minnesota Vikings and they have been rewarded with a trip across the country for this big Divisional Round game in the Playoff.
If the regular season game is anything to go by, the Rams will know how tough this assignment would be in perfect conditions. However, the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) are going to be hosting in cold, snowy weather and that should suit the NFC East Champions who were able to beat Green Bay pretty comfortably here last week.
The conditions won't be something unfamiliar to the Eagles and that gives them a mental edge compared with the Los Angeles Rams who have to go through multiple time zones and play on the road, while also coming out of a warmer climate than what they have to play through in the Divisional Round.
Playing in wet, cold conditions also means a team will look to lean on the Offensive Line and the Philadelphia Eagles will have been keen to do that anyway. You can't blame the Eagles who have an Offensive Line that helped pile up 314 yards on the ground in the road win in Los Angeles.
Saquon Barkley has had a memorable season, but this is a smart player who will do the right thing for the team rather than for his own personal statistics. That really does make it easier for the Offensive Line to want to block for their Running Back, while Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of tucking and running himself.
Stopping the run has been a problem for the Rams and what many believe is an undersized Defensive Line and they are not expected to have a lot of success at pushing back against this Eagles Offensive Line. With the conditions expected, the Eagles will be comfortable moving the ball on the ground and then using the pass intermittently to the big Receivers that are aiding Jalen Hurts.
Los Angeles would love to have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball around the Stadium, but that might be tough in these conditions.
Kyren Williams have been playing really well for the Rams, but he is going to have a tough day in the office if trying to establish the run against this Eagles Defensive Line. So much of the success that Philadelphia have had this season has been thanks to the massive improvements made on the Defensive side of the ball and the Secondary have really been able to clamp down on the passes to make it very tough to sustain drives against them.
Matthew Stafford will have some time in the pocket, but throwing in snowy conditions will not be easy and especially not against this Defensive unit and the Philadelphia Eagles may just roll on.
Jalen Hurts does have a 15-7 record against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning record, while he is 3-0 against the spread at home in the Playoff.
You have to respect Sean McVay and his abilities as a Head Coach, but those teams that have earned a blowout win in the regular season have been very good at covering in the Playoff rematch and the expectation is that the Eagles frank the road win they secured over the Los Angeles Rams in November.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Most neutral fans will easily point to the final game of the Divisional Round as being the one they are looking forward to the most and both the Buffalo Bills (14-4) and Baltimore Ravens (13-5) hold genuine Super Bowl ambitions.
The two teams had been set as big favourites to win in the Wild Card Round when hosting, and the Bills and Ravens responded in kind. That has only increased the appetite to see this big Divisional Round game, which is a rematch of an early regular season meeting.
On that occasion it was the Baltimore Ravens hosting and they crushed the Buffalo Bills so will be confident in this rematch- as mentioned in the Rams-Eagles preview, teams that hold blowout wins in the regular season over a Playoff foe have actually performed really well in the second meeting.
On paper it does look like a tough match up for the Buffalo Bills, especially when they have the ball, and so there is going to be a lot of pressure on Quarter Back Josh Allen. The Bills would love to be able to run the ball, but the Offensive Line have not been playing with dominance down the stretch and running the ball against this Baltimore Defensive Line has proven to be tough throughout the 2024 season.
Josh Allen can tuck it and run, but the Ravens have their own dual-threat Quarter Back and so you have to believe the Defensive players understand how best to contain the Bills on the ground.
There are spaces in the Secondary to be exploited, even if the Baltimore Ravens Secondary have stepped up in recent games. However, this is Josh Allen at home and the confidence to spread the ball around means it will be tough for the Ravens to stop the Bills completely, even if they will have an edge keeping the home team in third and long spots.
Pushing around the Baltimore Defensive Line might not be something that the Buffalo Offensive Line can expect to do with consistency, but the bigger test may be in keeping Josh Allen upright and earning him the time to throw the ball down the field. The Bills have done that in recent games, but this time they may not be in front of the chains and the Ravens have a pass rush that have found a way to get home.
Baltimore will be expecting a bigger test from the Bills Offensively having restricted them to 10 points in the regular season game, while they may also believe this Buffalo team are going to be looking to prove themselves after losing 35-10. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson crushed the Bills on the ground and the Offensive Line showed that they are still very capable of wearing teams down up front as they proved against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card win.
The Bills Defensive Line have played well down the stretch, but this is a significant test for them and Buffalo have to win at the Line of Scrimmage. Winning in this sense means just forcing Lamar Jackson to have to throw out of Third and Six or Third and Seven and see if they can make plays through the air to change the momemtum.
Zay Flowers has been out of practice and remains Questionable for the Divisional Round game, but Lamar Jackson has others capable of filling the void as long as he is not expected to push the boat out with his passes. Much like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson has been given a lot of protection from the Offensive Line and that has given him the time to attack teams through the air, although this Buffalo Secondary has played well.
It has all of the makings of a really good game, but the edge has to be with Baltimore who might just dominate the Line of Scrimmage. In close games that could make all of the difference to just flip the field, or create a turnover or two, and the Ravens can frank their big regular season win with another over Buffalo.
Lamar Jackson has had his issues in the post-season, but he won't mind being favoured after the Ravens had initially opened up as the road underdog. The Quarter Back has a perfect 6-0 record against the spread when that has happened previously, while Lamar Jackson has an impressive 26-9 record against the spread if the line is set between plus and minus 3 points.
You have to think that Josh Allen and the Bills will be very aware that they are the home underdog, despite having the better record, and that could inspire the home team. However, the match up looks to be in favour of the Baltimore Ravens and they can be the one that most likely has to travel to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game next weekend.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington Commanders + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)
Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Season 2024: + 5.99 Units
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