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Friday, 24 January 2025

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 25th January)

Injuries might have been the headlines on Day 13 of the Australian Open, although one of the Semi Final matches was completed and the other ended prematurely.

The fans were extremely upset with Novak Djokovic's decision to pull out of his Semi Final against Alexander Zverev moments after losing the first set tie-breaker, but booing him off the court is not really acceptable behaviour.

Maybe I am getting older, but a dominant, long time Champion and an all time great surely deserves more respect than he was afforded in Melbourne, while it truly feels like something that would not have happened a decade ago.

These days being a troll seems like a big career move for so many, but giving that kind of energy the oxygen it does not deserve has perhaps filtered into society in general. Instead of empathy and understanding, people feel like they own some of the great entertainers of our day and so 'deserve' to be given 'value for money'.

Don't misunderstand the situation, of course you're going to be disappointed if you had paid money to sit on the Rod Laver Arena and the match ended in that manner.

But it is not the first time this has happened and in previous years you would see the injured player given a warm applause rather than the disdain that seems to be reserved for Novak Djokovic, despite his obvious talents and impressive achievements.


Later in the evening, Jannik Sinner moved through to the Final for a second year in a row as he looks to defend the title won last year, but the World Number 1 definitely picked up an injury scare in the third set against Ben Shelton. Fortunately for the Italian, Ben Shelton could not avoid the Unforced Errors that just prevented him pushing the top Seed a little more having served for the first set and come up short.


It should be a good Men's Final on Sunday to round out the Australian Open, but before that we have a big hitting, potentially fun Women's Final to look forward to.

The fan in me hopes for a tight, competitive Final between Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka, although the head is suggesting something a little different.

You can see the train of thought below where the Pick for the Women's Final has been made with just two matches left at the Australian Open in 2025 and with a positive start to the season secured.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: There was a time when Aryna Sabalenka was seen as a player that would struggle to get over the line when it came to the absolute business end of Grand Slam tournaments.

A similar feeling had been around Madison Keys, but the difference between the two players is that Aryna Sabalenka kept getting into those Semi Final spots in the Grand Slams. This gave her the experience to eventually deal with her nerves and find a way through to the Final and then go on and win two Australian Open titles and one US Open.

The World Number 1 is still only 26 years old and the two time defending Australian Open Champion is the favourite to complete a hat-trick of titles here. Over the next twelve months, Aryna Sabalenka is going to be amongst the favourites to win every Grand Slam that she competes in and she certainly looks the clear best player in the world on the hard courts.

When Madison Keys reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2015 just a couple of weeks before she was turning 20 years old, American tennis fans may have felt the next big star of the sport was beginning to shine through.

However, the career has perhaps not panned out as Madison Keys or her supporters would have expected.

She has reached four further Semi Finals at Grand Slams and also played in the US Open Final in 2017, but there has been a lot of disappointing performances in the Majors around those strong runs. And after losing in the Semi Final here in Melbourne in 2022 and at the same stage in New York City in 2023, Madison Keys really did feel her hopes of winning a Grand Slam were over.

The loss at the US Open really hurt- Madison Keys took the first set 6-0 against Aryna Sabalenka that year, but was beaten 7-6, 7-6 in the next two sets and the World Number 14 was clearly devastated in the press conference.

An upset win over Iga Swiatek has given Madison Keys another chance to finally take home a Major, but she is still going to have to find another level to beat the peaking Aryna Sabalenka.

Madison Keys is going to have to find her best serving to try and keep Aryna Sabalenka under pressure, especially as her own return is going to be tested by the World Number 1. Making a fast start is important just to settle some nerves, but even in that US Open Semi Final that Madison Keys came so close to winning, it was a match that Aryna Sabalenka deserved to win even after dropping the first set without winning a game.

A much more routine win was produced by the Belarusian when these two players met in Beijing on the hard courts at the back end of last year and Aryna Sabalenka is producing at a higher level in this tournament. You have to believe the top Seed is very comfortable on the Rod Laver Arena these days and Aryna Sabalenka will know all about the occasion, which are factors that only strengthen her edge.

Once again, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has the edge on protecting the second serve as well as on the returning numbers and the two time defending Champion should have the qualities to break down Madison Keys in a competitive, but solid enough victory for the World Number 1.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-12, + 19.40 Units (75 Units Staked, + 25.87% Yield)

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