The selection process has been a bit tighter in January 2025, but there were enough positives from the remaining three Grand Slam tournaments and the Tour Finals to believe that there was not a lot wrong with the processes taken before making the Picks.
I've always said you need some luck with the tight margins that represent any tennis match on the Tour.
In most cases it comes down to one or two points in a set to really dictate the final score- that may be taking a single Break Point or saving multiple Break Points, or as simple as a net cord changing the momentum within a match.
With that in mind, the Australian Open 2024 will long live in the memory as the absolute worst performance and it is something I will be looking to avoid happening again.
The New Year and the first Grand Slam of the season has really been the opposite of the tournament in 2024 and four winners from four selections on Day 8 has kept the total moving in a positive direction. The only pick that didn't return was when Jack Draper called it quits in his match with Carlos Alcaraz as the Spaniard was closing in on a win and a cover too, something that the British player is perhaps earning a reputation for doing when things are not going his way.
However, the win includes a couple of odds against prices, which can build the momentum and it would be a real disappointment if this is not a tournament that kicks off the 2025 Tennis Picks with a positive return.
In saying that, this is not the time to pat yourself on the back and instead the focus is to try and win every day.
On Day 9 the Fourth Round is completed as we reach the business end of the tournament with some top names and favourites still involved with real ambitions of winning this Grand Slam.
There are some tight, competitive matches that look too tight to call one way or the other, but the there are three selections which can be read below.
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Holger Rune: Winning both Grand Slam tournaments played on the hard courts, the ATP Tour Finals and plenty of other Masters events on the surface means Jannik Sinner is the player to beat in the men's draw in Melbourne.
He benefits from being on the other side of the draw to the likes of Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, but there is still a cloud hanging over the World Number 1 due to a failed drugs test from last year which has yet to be completely cleared up.
The fact that Sinner is able to focus on his tennis is testament to his mental resiliency, especially as he was faced with plenty of criticism ahead of the US Open, which he ended up winning.
Three wins at the Australian Open have come in routine fashion and Jannik Sinner will go into this Fourth Round match as a considerable favourite.
Of course Jannik Sinner will have a real respect for Holger Rune, the World Number 13 who was as high as World Number 4 eighteen months ago and looks to be coming out of a difficult patch of form. The Dane is still only 21 years old and has massive potential for big successes on the Tour, but Rune perhaps hit an early wall in his career and early losses at both the Australian Open and US Open last year would have stung.
Winning this match would push Holger Rune back into the top ten of the World Rankings, but he has not been the most convincing player entering the Fourth Round. Putting three wins on the board will build some confidence, but Holger Rune has been edging some fine margins and he has played fourteen of fifteen potential sets to move through the draw.
The time spent on the court is not a massive concern, but the mental effort to get through a couple of five setters, including in the Third Round, has to take a toll.
This is also a big step up for Holger Rune, who will be motivated by the challenge, and Jannik Sinner has won their last two matches on the Tour. Neither has been comfortable, but the last match was in April 2024 and the World Number 1 continues to grow his aura on the court.
Both are serving well, although the edge is with the top Seed, but the big difference may be the ability on the return and that is where Jannik Sinner looks the stronger player.
Make no mistake, this is a big spread and Holger Rune is capable of testing Jannik Sinner.
However, the feeling is that Sinner is fresher and looks to be just increasing his level as we move into the second week of this Grand Slam and he may end up pulling away from Holger Rune over the course of a three or four set match. One of those sets could be won with a couple of breaks of serve, and that may be enough to push Jannik Sinner past the line set.
Daria Kasatkina v Emma Navarro: Only two places separated these two top ten Ranked players ahead of the tournament and the layers are finding it hard to put much more between them when it comes to the prices for this Fourth Round match.
It is Emma Navarro who is the higher Ranked of the two players, but the American has not really impressed in Melbourne.
The heart is not going to be criticised though and Emma Navarro has found a way through in matches where she has been struggling and that will give her plenty of confidence. We are moving into the second week at this Grand Slam, which means the competition is expected to increase, so there is some pressure on Navarro to lift her level.
Next up is Daria Kasatkina, the World Number 10 and a player who is going to hold onto one of those spots barring an upset and Madison Keys winning the event.
She has been a dominant winner in all three matches in Melbourne, but Daria Kasatkina has not played anyone inside the top 20 of the World Rankings and that has to be factored in. Take nothing away from the performances, but it should be pointed out that Daria Kasatkina has a 4-4 record against top 20 opponents over the last twelve months and is just 0-2 when it comes to facing fellow top ten opponents on this surface.
Emma Navarro has needed three sets in each of her victories in Melbourne, and it is the slightly better returning numbers compared to her overall numbers in that category which have helped her through to the Fourth Round.
It will certainly give the American hope, especially as she is facing an opponent in Daria Kasatkina who does not have the most intimidating of serves.
The World Number 10 is a very good return player though and Emma Navarro has not really been getting enough out of her serve to ever think she will be comfortable.
Expect plenty of rallies and breaks galore, but the feeling is that Daria Kasatkina's current level may just see her outlast an opponent who has already played a lot of tennis over the last week.
Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Eva Lys: She is only 23 years old, but Eva Lys would have arrived in Australia hoping to have an impact at a warm up event and then earn a place in the main draw at the Australian Open to earn some valuable Ranking points.
She would have admitted some disappointment having been beaten in Brisbane in the opening Qualifying Round before Eva Lys was able to make it through two matches in the Australian Open Qualifiers. It was not to be as the German was beaten in the Third Qualifying Round and Eva Lys admitted that she had booked a flight out of the country and back onto the slog of the Tour.
The World Number 128 was given a reprieve by earning a Lucky Loser spot in the main draw in Melbourne and Lys has taken full advantage.
Fortune has been on her side having faced a Qualifier in the First Round of the main draw and Eva Lys has won two more matches, but against opponents Ranked 69 or lower. She still had to win the matches though and Eva Lys will be entering the top 100 for the first time at the end of this tournament, which means direct entry into further Grand Slam tournaments and an opportunity to play bigger events than she has been fighting through.
It has been all positive for Eva Lys, but she is going to have to raise her level significantly in this Fourth Round match on Monday when taking on World Number 2 Iga Swiatek.
A flawless performance saw Iga Swiatek drop just a single game in her crushing win over former US Open Champion Emma Raducanu and the Polish player has admitted that she feels much stronger than when preparing at the United Cup.
Iga Swiatek has to be really happy with her level having beaten three opponents Ranked 61 or higher, and she has dominated behind serve. In the last two matches she has not even faced a Break Point, while Swiatek has won 53% of return points played in the Australian Open.
Her level is considerably higher than someone like Eva Lys and Iga Swiatek looks to be really focused right now.
As long as that continues to be the case, Iga Swiatek should dominate this match and there is every chance she can avoid giving too much away to her opponent. This is a massive line, one that is more along the lines that the men are asked to cover in a best of five set match, not a best of three, but Iga Swiatek is playing at such a standard that she may just have the capabilities of securing another one-sided victory in the tournament.
Their sole previous meeting was on Iga Swiatek's favoured clay courts in 2022 and Eva Lys was able to win just two games on the day- she may double that total here, but even that may not be enough to prevent the Number 2 Seed from easing through to the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 21-7, + 18.98 Units (53 Units Staked, + 35.81% Yield)
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