The First Round was played over three days, which is the norm at two of the four Grand Slams played on the Tour, but we will be getting back to a more consistent schedule going forward.
Of course the weather needs to play ball, and there looks to be some stormy weather in the Melbourne area on Day 4, but this might not be the worst news for those competing.
In fact the next two days are very decent temperature-wise for the players who are heading out onto the courts, although we will be hitting more traditional very hot weather around the weekend. These days bring different challenges, but the Second Round should be comfortable conditions for the top players looking to make their way towards the second week of the tournament.
On Day 4 there are some top names out on the courts, which is so good for the fans, and there are some quality looking matches to enjoy.
Hopefully the Tennis selections below can keep the positives ticking forward as I look to make a much better start to 2025 than I did twelve months ago, a memory that will long be seared on the mind.
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 sets v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Both of these players have enjoyed much more positive moments in their respective careers than they are right now, although the signs are perhaps a little stronger for Felix Auger-Aliassime.
A former top ten Ranked player, Felix Auger-Aliassime has been striving to find the solutions to turn his tennis around. In the last eighteen months he has dropped out of the top 30 of the World Rankings as injury and loss of confidence played contributory factors, while the end of 2024 was very disappointing as far as the Canadian's form goes.
However, he has played well to open the 2025 season and winning the title in Adelaide will have done wonders for the confidence around the player. Two of the four wins needed to win that title were earned against players Ranked higher than himself, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has also beaten Taylor Fritz, the US Open Runner Up, this year.
The serve has never really been a massive issue, but there has been pressure placed on that shot by relatively poor returning numbers. Those have been very strong in the limited matches that Felix Auger-Aliassime has played so far this year and his dominant win in the First Round will have done him no harm at all.
He is a deserving favourite in this Second Round match against Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Felix Auger-Aliassime has won all four of their previous matches. Two of the wins have been on the clay courts, which should have favoured Davidovich Fokina, while the other two wins have both been on hard courts.
One of those was at the Australian Open in January 2022 when Felix Auger-Aliassime was Ranked 41 places higher than Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and the Canadian used his experience to come through in four competitive sets.
This year Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 43 places below Auger-Aliassime in the World Rankings having had a difficult twelve months.
In that time Davidovich Fokina has fallen out of the top 30 in the World Rankings down to World Number 66 and the Spaniard has not shown a lot of positive form in the build up to the Australian Open. He benefited from a second set retirement in the First Round, but this is a considerably tougher test for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, a player who has a vulnerable serve even at his strongest times.
The head to head shows that Alejandro Davidovich is able to protect his serve a little better when facing the weak returning of Felix Auger-Aliassime and he has been able to hold 87% of the service games played. However, the reason Auger-Aliassime has won all four previous matches between the players is that he has held 94% of his own service games against this opponent and the current form suggests the higher Ranked player is going to be good enough to move through in three or four sets.
Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 sets v Francesco Passaro: This little section of the draw has been opened up by Grigor Dimitrov's hip injury that forced him out of his First Round match and the beneficiary is Francesco Passaro.
The Italian is only in the main draw as a 'Lucky Loser', but will be entering the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of this tournament. However, there are some big challenges for Francesco Passaro to overcome to have a longer stay in Melbourne, even if he may feel he has 'nothing to lose' right now.
He was leading Grigor Dimitrov by a set when the Bulgarian was forced to retire from the match, but Francesco Passaro had never beaten a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts prior to that. There have been stronger performances on the favoured clay courts and improving his Ranking will allow Francesco Passaro to try and play in some of the big events coming up in the lead up to the French Open, but he had played seven hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents and lost every one.
The real concern is that Francesco Passaro had not been very competitive in those defeats either and that makes Benjamin Bonzi a deserving favourite.
At 28 years old, the time is now for Bonzi to really make an impact on the Tour.
He had threatened to become one of the next leading lights of French men's tennis, but his progress was curtailed after reaching his career high World Ranking in February 2023. However, Benjamin Bonzi ended 2024 in strong form, albeit at a lower level than the main ATP Tour, and he has put plenty of wins on the board in 2025 which can only build the confidence.
The win over veteran David Goffin in the First Round was very impressive and Benjamin Bonzi has been able to beat those that he has been expected to outside of that victory. The Frenchman has won his last nineteen matches on the hard courts when playing an opponent that is Ranked lower than himself and Benjamin Bonzi has won plenty of those matches in strong fashion.
Over the last twelve months, Benjamin Bonzi has held 82% of service games on this surface when facing an opponent Ranked lower than himself.
This has also helped Bonzi dominate on the return of serve and you have to feel he has a bit too much all around for Francesco Passaro in their first meeting on the Tour.
The Lucky Loser may feel fortune is still behind him, but the likelihood is that Francesco Passaro's run ends in the Second Round and Benjamin Bonzi can move through in a relatively untroubled manner.
Reilly Opelka-Tomas Machac over 40.5 games: Life as a tennis player is going to be fun at times, but injuries can have a devastating mental and physical effect on any player on the Tour.
Reilly Opelka will tell you all about that having missed large parts of the last two years dealing with various ailments.
The hope is that 2025 will be clearer for the American who has dropped down to World Number 170 and who will be looking to take advantage of any Wild Cards offered to him to rebuild as quickly as possible. It was a Protected Ranking that allowed Reilly Opelka to compete in Brisbane in the warm up to the Australian Open and he took full advantage by reaching the Final, which included beating Novak Djokovic on the way.
Unfortunately it was not a perfect ending for Opelka who was forced to withdraw from the Final after just five games, but he is able to compete in Melbourne and earned his four set win in the First Round. It was a back issue that had flared up in Brisbane and the concern is that it will impact Reilly Opelka's serving, which is an absolutely huge part of his tennis.
He gave up 13 Break Points in the First Round and that was against an opponent Ranked outside the top 200 so there is little doubt that Reilly Opelka needs to show significant improvement if he is going to upset Tomas Machac.
The 24 year old representing Czechia has some big expectations on his shoulders along with a couple of his compatriots as tennis fans look for the next Tomas Berdych to come through. This Tomas is closing in on reaching the top 20 in the World Rankings for the first time and Machac will have gained some confidence from the level shown at the United Cup in preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season.
A close loss to Casper Ruud and a competitive match against Taylor Fritz will have given Tomas Machac a boost and he was a very strong winner in the First Round.
The higher Ranked player has an edge on the returning numbers, but Tomas Machac will not have faced a serve like Reilly Opelka's in every match.
His own serve will certainly be good enough to contain the threat from the American, but this could be a match that needs a couple of tie-breakers to really determine the direction it moves in, especially if Reilly Opelka is able to bring his best serving to the court.
Both players are more than capable of winning a set and you would have to feel that this Second Round match is able to surpass the total games line set if that is the case. With the serving capabilities on both sides of the net, there is every chance that the sets will be pretty fast with players rolling through service games and the two are capable of combining for enough games to move past this line.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka-Tomas Machac Over 40.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 5-2, + 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)
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