If I am being honest, I am not a big fan of the technology that has infiltrated sport, especially in football where so many subjective decisions are causing controversy.
However, there are certain elements where technology can play an important role- offside is slightly controversial with the line drawing, but goal-line technology is making things much clearer and that is a positive intervention.
With that in mind, it is quite staggering that tennis players are expected to make snap shot calls over things like a double bounce- when the lines were being called by umpires, players were still given a bit of time to determine whether they wanted to challenge calls, but those are much easier to see for a player compared with the number of bounces a ball has taken when it is a bang-bang call.
The reality is that on Day 11 of the Australian Open it was not a bang-bang call when Emma Navarro's drop-shot clearly landed for a second time significantly before Iga Swiatek was able to get to it and the entire Stadium could see what had happened immediately.
However, Emma Navarro was not able to really stop the point where she is expected to and ultimately it has proven to be a controversial moment that will have authorities changing the way they expect the technology to be used.
The match would have still likely landed in Iga Swiatek's direction, but it was a poor look for a sport in a Quarter Final setting and that will be talked about until the Semi Final matches begin on Day 12.
Both Tennis Picks came through on Day 11 and that has moved the number back in a positive direction after a 1-2 record on Day 10.
It has been a really strong tournament and with six matches left it feels more comfortable to say that- however, the focus is to go 6-0 rather than 0-6 over the coming days to give the 2025 year an early boost.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Paula Badosa: In April 2022, Paula Badosa was the World Number 2 and looking like a player ready to challenge the very best for the very biggest prizes in the sport.
Injury pushed Paula Badosa not only down the World Rankings to the point that she was entering the Australian Open in 2024 as the World Number 100, but it also pushed the Spaniard to the brink of retirement.
The last twelve months might have felt like the last roll of the dice for Paula Badosa and any setbacks might have meant retirement was the only real solution to her issues.
Thankfully she has not only largely avoided problems, but Paula Badosa has gradually approached the kind of tennis that took her to World Number 2 in the first place. She reached the US Open Quarter Final in September, only the second time she had made it that far at a Grand Slam event, but Paula Badosa has surpassed that here in Melbourne after the deserved upset of Coco Gauff on Day 10.
Improvements on the court means Paula Badosa entered the tournament as the World Number 12 and she is expected to be back inside the top ten when the new Rankings are released on Monday.
This is a big match for Paula Badosa and she will be hoping that facing a friendly face in Aryna Sabalenka, a good friend off the court, will help ease the tension.
The two time defending Champion came through a tough Quarter Final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and that will have given Aryna Sabalenka a bit more belief as she looks to win another Grand Slam title Down Under. Her overall performance in Melbourne has perhaps not reached her top level, but that could be a positive for Aryna Sabalenka as she looks to peak in the coming days and try and win the title on Saturday.
We know there is better to come from the Sabalenka first serve and that is going to be important in this Semi Final, especially if Paula Badosa continues to serve as well as she has.
The most impressive part of Paula Badosa's serving has to be how well she has managed the second serve and she beat an erratic and inconsistent Coco Gauff impressively. There is an expectation that Aryna Sabalenka will offer more of a threat on the return with this aspect of her tennis being key to her run to the Semi Final, while the experience edge cannot be ignored.
Aryna Sabalenka is leading the head to head thanks to five straight wins over Paula Badosa, including all three played in 2024.
They did play out a competitive match in Stuttgart on the clay, which was prematurely ended when Paula Badosa had to withdraw in the third set, but the other two matches on the hard courts of Miami and clay courts of Roland Garros were both won comfortably enough by the Belarusian.
Paula Badosa has a big game and can be very dangerous, but it is an unfamiliar moment for her and that could just see nerves play a part.
Prior to her successes in Australia, Aryna Sabalenka had some of those difficult learning moments in the big Grand Slam matches and she may just have the power and authority on this court to dish out a painful lesson to a good friend.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Madison Keys: The chances of the Quarter Final moving in a different direction are pretty slim, but Iga Swiatek's win over Emma Navarro had a huge controversial moment in the second set when a clear 'double bounce' was missed by the umpire.
Without an immediate stop of the point, Emma Navarro was not able to review, while Iga Swiatek has had to face some criticism for not showing some sportsmanship to offer the point to her opponent.
It was at a big moment with Navarro looking to move ahead in the second set, but she failed to win another game and Iga Swiatek continues to play at a very high level.
Five wins have been produced at Melbourne Park and the numbers are really impressive, and that means Madison Keys has a huge challenge in front of her as she bids to return to a Grand Slam Final.
The last American female player left in the draw, Madison Keys has played the big points really well in her run to the Semi Final. She has dropped sets in three of the five matches won at the Australian Open, including in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final wins, but credit has to be given to Madison Keys for overcoming tough situations.
Without a doubt she is going to have to pick up her level and Madison Keys is going to have to serve at her very best if she is going to beat Iga Swiatek playing at her current level.
She has being protecting the serve well enough, but Madison Keys is only winning 40% of return points in this tournament and that makes it very difficult to believe in her chances of securing the upset. The fact Keys is now playing an opponent who has just SIX Break Points in five matches won at the Australian Open means the American is likely going to be under significant scoreboard pressure.
Iga Swiatek has not been broken in her last four matches and a dominant first serve has kept her on top of opponents and broken their spirit.
And of course you cannot ignore the fact that the World Number 2 has won 55% of the return points played at the Australian Open, which means Madison Keys is going to have to get plenty of first serves in play and try and move into a position to play first strike tennis. This is going to be very challenging for her and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will control the tempo of this match and break down Keys physically and mentally during the time spent on the court.
The head to head does not make very good reading for Madison Keys, although both matches played against Iga Swiatek in 2024 were on the clay courts and ended in routine wins for the Polish player as expected.
In two previous hard court matches, both players have won once with the most recent being a Madison Keys win in Cincinnati in August 2022. However, the form of the two players leading into this Semi Final suggests Iga Swiatek is going to avenge that defeat and her return is capable of putting Madison Keys under the kind of pressure that eventually leads to a routine win for the higher Ranked player.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 26-10, + 21.40 Units (69 Units Staked, + 31.01% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment