Learning from past mistakes is key to improving results, but the overriding feeling after the Australian Open in 2024 was that things that could go wrong had gone wrong.
Making up for the tremendously poor tournament was always going to be difficult without having a lot of luck, and so the 2024 season was a really poor one for the Tennis Picks having never recovered from January.
Perhaps the one change made for this year is going with a much stricter selection process- there have been some misses already in the first five days of the Australian Open with the likes of Naomi Osaka winning matches that were on the borderline of being selected.
Ultimately there can be no complaints about eleven winners from fifteen selections and the positive number returned through the first two Rounds of the tournament are welcomed.
However, there are still ten days left in Melbourne and so this has to be seen as a positive start, but just a start.
Third Round matches begin on Friday with the temperatures expecting to be much higher in Melbourne than they have been in the previous two days and that is going to be challenging for players.
So far the upsets have largely been avoided in both the men's and women's tournament, but Daniil Medvedev has joined Qinwen Zheng in being former Australian Open Finalists that have failed to make the Third Round.
Both will feel tremendously disappointed, but plenty of the big names are still going and looking strong.
We have not really seen all four of the top women's Seeds going well at the same Grand Slam, but all look in great shape heading into the Third Round, while the top men's names are still involved outside of Medvedev.
The lineup for the second week of the tournament will begin to be put together on Friday and there are some top Third Round matches set to head out onto the Melbourne Park courts.
Selections from the opening Third Round matches can be read below as we look to push the positive returns further forward.
Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils over 39.5 games: The chance to play in the second week of any Grand Slam can only build the confidence of those players to reach Fourth Round of the any of the four tournaments played across the calendar year. Being able to do that in Melbourne sets the standard for a long season ahead though and both Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils are very likely to be top 20 Ranked players when the new Rankings are released at the conclusion of the Australian Open.
Those marks means there is also an expectation around the two players to be a part of the Last 16 of any Grand Slam they play and so this is a big Third Round match between two compatriots looking to lead the next generation of French players forward.
Gael Monfils continues to defy his age, but the majority of those that made the headlines in French tennis have moved into retirement and new stars are needed, especially for a nation that hosts one of the four Slams.
After reaching the Final of the Paris Masters at the conclusion of 2024, Ugo Humbert is looking to take the next step his career over the coming eleven months. He has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open where the serve continues to be a big weapon, but Humbert will be well aware that he has not been tested having faced opponents Ranked 145 or lower.
There is no doubt that Arthur Fils will bring a test and there are arguably more expectations on his shoulders than the higher Ranked Frenchman. Part of the reason for that is Fils is still only 20 years old and is set to reach a new career high World Ranking inside the top 20 at the end of this tournament.
Inexperience has been an issue at times, but there is a lot to like about the Arthur Fils game- he can lose focus at moments, which is perhaps why he has needed four sets in each of his two wins in Melbourne, but Arthur Fils has beaten two players inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and that may make him feel he is more 'ready' to compete.
Sometimes in tennis matches between compatriots, it can be hard for the lower Ranked and younger player to deal with facing someone they have perhaps 'looked up to' as they make their own journey onto the professional Tour. So early in the careers you can see some one-sided head to head contest and that is the same for Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils.
The older of the two Frenchmen had won four in a row against Arthur Fils, culminating in a crushing 6-2, 6-2 win on the hard courts of Canada in August 2024. However, it was Arthur Fils who snapped the losing run against Ugo Humbert by beating him for the first time in Tokyo later in 2024 and that was for the title so a big occasion to come through.
It was also the first time Arthur Fils has been able to have consistent success against the Ugo Humbert serve and he may have the edge in this Third Round match.
Even if he is to come through, the expectation is that we will see at least four sets needed to determine a winner and that may give the players enough time to play the games needed to surpass this total line set.
In a three set win in the Tokyo Final, there were 34 games played in total and both have served well enough in Melbourne through the first two Rounds to expect a competitive and perhaps long Third Round match.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jacob Fearnley: Andy Murray has retired and Cameron Norrie has taken a big tumble in the World Rankings meaning the pressure is on Jack Draper to become the next big star for British tennis.
At 23 years old, Jack Draper is a top 20 Ranked player and there are big expectations being carried on his shoulders as he prepares for a Third Round match at the Australian Open.
However, the British player making the headlines is less well known.
Jacob Fearnley has taken the American College route towards the professional Tour that many others have trodden before and there will be a maturity about those players when they play on the Tour that much younger players may not necessarily have. Of course there are exceptions to every statement, but Fearnley has played some big time tennis in College, including helping TCU win the National Championship, and that experience looks to stand this British player in good stead going forward.
He is a top 100 Ranked player and is set to make a big jump in the World Rankings having upset Nick Kyrgios and Arthur Cazaux in the first couple of Rounds in Melbourne. The confidence will not be lacking, but Jacob Fearnley will also be well aware that he is facing one of the favourites to win the title in this Third Round match.
Playing on a big court is not going to be an issue after the win over Nick Kyrgios in the First Round, but Alexander Zverev is a player operating at a much higher level than the injury hit Australian.
After making a full recovery from a serious injury, Alexander Zverev has put plenty of wins on the board over the last twelve months and is playing as the World Number 2. The German is still only 27 years old so the chance to win a Grand Slam has not passed him by, and the hard courts might be the domain on which Alexander Zverev could have his best chance to do that.
No one will doubt his capabilities on the clay of Roland Garros either, but the focus is on a strong Australian Open and Alexander Zverev has been untroubled through the first two Rounds. The serve is always going to be a big weapon for the Number 2 Seed, but it is the return that has been catching the eye in the first two Rounds and maintaining those levels will make him very hard to beat.
That is unlikely if you look at the historical returning numbers, but Alexander Zverev will put Jacob Fearnley under some pressure, even if the British number is currently playing very well behind that shot. The service numbers have dipped to holding at around 80% of service games played when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and this is far and away the highest Ranked player Jacob Fearnley has faced on the surface.
He is clearly a player that needs respect and Jacob Fearnley did raise interest last summer when taking a set from the great Novak Djokovic in the Second Round at Wimbledon. That may give Alexander Zverev the nudge to be that much more focused on the player rather than the World Ranking and the World Number 2 can find a way to cover this spread behind a solid straight sets win.
Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: Both of these players are Seeded at the Australian Open and both are former US Open Finalists- the difference is that World Number 3 Coco Gauff was able to win the title in Flushing Meadows, while World Number 29 Leylah Fernandez came up short in 2021 against Emma Raducanu.
After reaching her career best World Ranking in August 2022 with all of the points picked up from that US Open run, Leylah Fernandez has slipped back to be in and around the top 30 mark.
There is plenty of potential still to fulfil for the 22 year old Canadian, but Fernandez will need to find more consistency if she is going to become a regular feature in the top 20 or even better.
The hard court numbers kind of back that up with Leylah Fernandez a solid, but unspectacular player on the surface. There has also been a clear split in her capabilities against players that are Ranked higher or lower than her with Leylah Fernandez 15-6 against those she is expected to beat, and 6-10 against those she is perhaps not.
Leylah Fernandez feels like a momentum player and four of those six wins against higher Ranked players have come in the same two tournaments. Confidence clearly improves after an upset and Fernandez can keep things going, but there have been a lot of losses to the top players on the Tour and that includes a relatively one-sided defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup in the warm up to the Australian Open.
The World Number 3 has been pretty comfortable in her opening two matches in Melbourne and at 20 years old Coco Gauff is one of the stars of the sport.
Five wins at the United Cup means Coco Gauff comes into this event as one of the favourites and she is still one of the top hard court players on the WTA Tour. Her numbers at this event have been solid, but there is still more to come from Coco Gauff and the feeling is that she is playing a little within herself to ensure there is plenty left in the tank at the business end of the event.
A match like this should inspire Coco Gauff to be closer to her best knowing the kind of challenges that Leylah Fernandez could present if the higher Ranked player is not quite as focused as she should be.
It is not much of a concern for that to happen and Coco Gauff might be the player who gets a few more cheaper points behind the serve, which will put her in a strong position to move through to the Fourth Round. The serve was the key to the win over the Canadian at the United Cup and there is marked difference between the returning numbers of the two players on this surface over the last twelve months.
Covering this spread will be tough, but Coco Gauff is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that and she can be backed here.
MY PICKS: Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mirra Andeeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 11-4, + 8.48 Units (27 Units Staked, + 31.41% Yield)
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