Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Friday 11th July)

The Ladies Final has been set and you could argue that both Finalists are something of a surprise- Amanda Anisimova has shown some form on the grass this summer, as has Iga Swiatek, but neither has had a big impact at Wimbledon before and the winner is set to become the latest 'surprising' Champion here.

Before that, we have two huge Men's Semi Finals featuring three of the top four players and the seven time Champion Novak Djokovic.

No matter which permutation we get for the Final, it should bring together a really positive end to the third Grand Slam of the season and the attention will soon turn to the hard courts.

We do have some clay court events and some early hard court tournaments beginning right after Wimbledon concludes in what is a relentless Tour, but the majority of the biggest names will be thinking about the Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati before the US Open gets underway next month.

However, the focus for those left playing on the grass is picking up a Major trophy this weekend and you can read my thoughts on the two Semi Final matches taking place on Friday below this.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Tennis fans, especially fans of the Men's game, will feel a new era is being ushered in, although one where the young players are still growing.

You cannot dismiss the Grand Slam titles that have already been won by Carlos Alcaraz and he is the two time defending Champion at Wimbledon, but comparing his run in 2025 compared with the way dominant Champions like Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would move through the draws is night and day.

Yes, he keeps winning and that has to be respected- nineteen wins in a row have been produced at Wimbledon and there is a growing aura around Carlos Alcaraz, which makes it tough to face him. However, the likes of Fabio Fognini, Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev have taken sets from the World Number 2 and the Spaniard was under a bit of pressure when playing at Queen's Club, although ultimately winning the title.

The manner of the win over Cameron Norrie will certainly have the Alcaraz fans feeling much better about their man and he is deserving of being a strong favourite even when taking on a very comfortable grass court player in Taylor Fritz. Titles have been won on the surface and the American has reached the Wimbledon Semi Final for the first time, although, much like Carlos Alcaraz, it has been far from a straight-forward pathway through the draw.

In some ways Taylor Fritz was fortunate to come through in four sets against Karen Khachanov in the Quarter Final and there is a lot of pressure on the World Number 5 to make sure he is serving at his very best. Anything less would see him in a tough position trying to win rallies against someone who is superior on the ground, and the match up has proven to be a difficult one for Taylor Fritz in the past.

This is the first meeting on grass, but Carlos Alcaraz holds two hard court wins over the American and neither was very competitive with Taylor Fritz restricted to winning 59% of points behind serve. Obviously that is a number that will need to be improved dramatically if Taylor Fritz is going to threaten the upset, but there is also the pressure of knowing how important it is to get plenty of first serves in play.

In the two meetings on the Tour, the Fritz second serve has been attacked relentlessly by Carlos Alcaraz, while the defending Champion has been picking up his own level behind the serve in the last two Rounds.

The Semi Final is going to be much more competitive than the Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Final win over Cameron Norrie, but there is this feeling that the defending Champion will begin to pull away from his opponent again.

He has not been at his best in this tournament, but Taylor Fritz has had plenty of moments where he has been struggling and Carlos Alcaraz can beat him for a third straight time, while also reaching the Wimbledon Final for a third year in a row.

Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: An injury scare during the Fourth Round 'win' over Grigor Dimitrov had some wondering if Jannik Sinner would play in the Quarter Final, but he did and he was a strong winner over Ben Shelton.

The Italian has been given a second chance in the tournament having looked all but out against Grigor Dimitrov with the World Number 1 trailing 2-0 in sets and struggling to really get to grips with what the veteran was producing. A really unfortunate pectoral injury saw Dimitrov forced to pull out of that match and there is every reason to believe Jannik Sinner is even more dangerous than usual if he feels he is playing with 'house money'.

A four set was produced by Novak Djokovic in his own Quarter Final, but it was a tougher than expected match against Flavio Cobolli and a slip in what proved to be the last game of the match has raised some doubt about the seven time Champion's health.

It would be a surprise if Novak Djokovic is not able to go on Friday, but he will need to be at full health as he looks to secure yet another Wimbledon Final spot. Winning a 25th Grand Slam is the goal for Djokovic and he remains one of the top grass court players in the world, but Carlos Alcaraz has beaten him twice in a row at Wimbledon and the former World Number 1 has lost his last four matches against Jannik Sinner.

None of those have been on the grass, but the Italian crushed Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open in 2024 and that court is the one where the latter is at his very best. Last month Jannik Sinner secured a straight sets win over Novak Djokovic at the French Open to reach the Final and the mental edge may just be with the current World Number 1.

Of course Sinner has not had the same type of success on the grass compared with Novak Djokovic and was beaten by the latter in 2022 and 2023 right here at Wimbledon. However, the second of those defeats felt very unfortunate for Sinner who had played well, but could not take his Break Point chances compared with a clinical Novak Djokovic and that ultimately cost him the match.

Both will appreciate the importance of serving well in this match, but it has felt like Sinner has been a touch more consistent in this part of his tennis.

Novak Djokovic has to take encouragement from the stronger return numbers he has put on the board at the tournament, but that is also partly down to the match ups he has faced and getting into the Jannik Sinner serve is a completely different test, even for the best return player of all time.

In the recent head to head, Novak Djokovic has really had a tough time dealing with the power and ability to back up the serve that Jannik Sinner has been able to produce. The scoreboard pressure has made it tough on the veteran and it is going to take something pretty special for Novak Djokovic to win this match.

The Sinner elbow issue has to be watched in what could be a longer, drawn out match compared with the big hitting power battle he had with Ben Shelton. However, Jannik Sinner's movement and heavy ball gives him the edge and the feeling is that he will find a way to win this one in three or, most likely, four sets.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 4-3, + 0.86 Units (14 Units Staked, + 6.14% Yield)