The new College Football Playoff format is going to be changed and evolved in the coming years and those involved will be keeping a close eye on the development of the Bracket this year.
No one wants to make sweeping statements after one sample of games, but the fact that all four First Round winners were able to beat higher Ranked opponents in the Quarter Final will have been noted.
Of course a couple of the lower Seeded teams were better than those that earned Byes through to the Quarter Final, but it won't be lost on many that none of the Conference Champions are going earn a chance of becoming National Champions. The long layoff between games for those earning the Bye into the Quarter Final was a concern before the games were played and you have to think that the organisers will want to make sure that is not a trend going forward.
In saying that, both Semi Final games should be a good one and there will still be a deserving National Champion crowned when all is said and done.
Right now it is very hard to look past the Ohio State Buckeyes who look intent on making up for an underachieving regular season, but the other three teams left standing will all be extremely confident on winning the Championship too.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It is best to not read too much into the first edition of the twelve team College Football Playoff, but it has been noted that the four First Round winners all came through their Quarter Final games to earn places in the final four.
Perhaps in the future the four teams earning the Bye will have guaranteed home field advantage to make up for the time spent away from competitive action, but that is a matter for another day.
Teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) could not, and should not, care less with the chance of winning a National Championship now coming over the horizon.
Both schools have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them as Penn State look for a first National Championship since 1986 and Notre Dame the first since 1988. Out of the two, the Fighting Irish have a lot more recent experience of playing in the College Football Playoff, but that is not going to count for a lot in this Semi Final.
The Fighting Irish beat the Indiana Hoosiers out of the Big Ten before upsetting the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs, but will note that there is room for improvement. Notre Dame were not very comfortable Offensively in the win over the Bulldogs and were perhaps fortunate that Georgia were without starting Quarter Back Carson Beck, who might have helped that Quarter Final become a lot more competitive than it was at the end.
Next up is the Penn State Nittany Lions who beat the SMU Mustangs and then covered as a big favourite in the victory over the Boise State Broncos. Head Coach James Franklin will have something to build upon thanks to this Semi Final run, but he will also be very aware that Penn State could not have asked for a better portion of the Bracket and this is a huge step up for the Nittany Lions, who were beaten by Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December.
Much like Notre Dame, Penn State will be very pleased with the efforts of the Defensive unit in their two Playoff wins, but may feel there is still more to come from Quarter Back Drew Allar and the rest of the Offense.
Unsuprisingly the Line of Scrimmage is going to play a huge factor in this game on both sides of the ball.
Running the ball against this Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been challenging for teams all season and they were able to shut down the Bulldogs in the Quarter Final. Doing the same against the Nittany Lions will be tougher considering the experience of the Quarter Back, which was missing against Georgia and allowed Notre Dame to dare the SEC Champions to beat them through the air.
Someone like Drew Allar is capable of making plays against this Secondary, although running the ball is also important to establish the balance and just offer Penn State's Offensive Line a little less time to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. The long Allar has to hold the ball to allow routes to develop down the field, the better for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who will feel any under pressure Quarter Back could be picked off by the Defensive Backs.
Extra possessions could be crucial in a Semi Final like this one and avoiding turnovers is going to be important for Drew Allar and Fighting Irish Quarter Back Riley Leonard.
Good news for the Fighting Irish is that Jerimiyah Love looks like he will be ready to go after some early doubts about the big time Running Back. There is little doubt that Love and Riley Leonard will be needed to help Notre Dame try and establish the run against a very good Penn State Defensive Line, one that is expected to have standout Abdul Carter available to play.
Ashton Jeanty was able to pick up 104 yards on the ground against Penn State in the Quarter Final, but it took thirty carries to do that and that just underlines how good the Nittany Lions have been up front.
Having a dual-threat Quarter Back may aid Notre Dame, but they are going to have to be patient and try and wear down the Nittany Lions through the course of the Semi Final. It may also be a situation where Riley Leonard has to try and exploit the one or two holes that have existed in the Penn State Secondary and see if the pass can help open the running lanes.
Riley Leonard did not have a good game against the Georgia Bulldogs so may feel he has something to prove with his arm having thrown for just 90 yards in the Quarter Final win. He did avoid turnovers though and it is going to be a game that may end up being a field position battle where the team that plays the cleaner game is able to win.
The layers are finding it tough to separate Penn State and Notre Dame and the same can be said here.
Instead, it may just be the best option to focus on the Defensive units and expect them to come out on top.
College Football rules can make backing the under a bit more difficult- Overtime rules can see the points really rack up, and this is a game that is likely going to be close enough to potentially need an extra bit of time to find a way to separate them.
However, you have to believe both teams are going to grind this one out at times and that could see the clock run quicker than in other games. Both will look to pound the rock and open up the pass, but the Quarter Backs may not be tasked with trying to do too much when they step back to throw the ball in order to avoid turnovers.
Both the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish have shown how good their Defensive units can be this season and a tight, competitive Semi Final is expected.
Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Losing to the Michigan Wolverines cost the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and put Head Coach Ryan Day firmly on the hot seat. Failing to beat their old rival again would have hurt the fans, but the fact the Buckeyes had lost to a Wolverines team in disarray this season really placed the pressure on the Head Coach.
Ultimately you are going to be judged by titles when you are the Head Coach of a school like Ohio State and the Buckeyes felt like an underperforming team with their 10-2 record to conclude the regular season.
Things have certainly changed in the Playoff though.
Missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game ended any chance of earning a Bye through to the Quarter Final, but the Buckeyes have been able to turn their momentum right around. Blowing out the Tennessee Volunteers at home was impressive, but there is no doubt that the best performance in the Quarter Final Round came from Ohio State who crushed the Oregon Ducks, the Number 1 Seed and Big Ten Champion.
This is going to feel like a road game for the Buckeyes, no matter how the fans are known to travel, and that is because it is being played in Dallas.
Against the Texas Longhorns (13-2).
Losing the SEC Championship Game meant the Longhorns have also been forced to win two games to earn their spot in the Semi Final of the 2024 Playoff. They were comfortable winners against ACC Champions Clemson Tigers, but Texas made really hard work of beating the Big 12 Champions Arizona State Sun Devils and it feels like the Longhorns have a lot more to prove.
Quinn Ewers will earn the start at Quarter Back, but the fans are hoping there will be a big package in place for Archie Manning, who is seen as a much more effective runner and a confident passer. There will be plenty of motivation within Ewers though and that is because he actually originally signed up to play for Ohio State before transferring to Texas.
The Longhorns may need their Quarter Back to be at his absolute best against this tough Buckeyes Defense and that is all down to the strength of the Ohio State Defensive Line. It has been so tough to run against them all season, but the Texas Offensive Line have not been playing that well down the stretch and that will offer little encouragement for them.
Making the Longhorns a little one-dimensional will be seen as a big win for the Ohio State Buckeyes and will ramp up the pressure on Quinn Ewers.
The Quarter Back is obviously going to be confident in his own ability, but Texas' Offensive Line may struggle to keep the Buckeyes out of the backfield if Ewers is stuck in third and long spots on the field. A talented Ohio State Secondary have benefited from the pressure that the pass rush have generated and they will certainly believe they can stall drives and potentially pick off an errant pass or two.
This is going to be a prove it kind of game for Quinn Ewers and he will try and boost himself through the personal motivation of playing against his old team for the first time.
Ohio State's Quarter Back is also firing himself up through personal experiences and Will Howard is well aware of the Texas Longhorns having transferred to Ohio State after several years facing Texas in the Big 12. Will Howard has never beaten Texas (0-4), but it also fair to say that the Quarter Back was not throwing to the kind of talented Receivers at Kansas State as he is with Ohio State.
Unlike the Longhorns, the Buckeyes Offensive Line may have a lot more success running the ball and that is key to helping Will Howard and the passing game to really attack the Longhorns down the field. That Offensive Line has also been pretty good when it comes to pass protection, which is all the easier if you are playing in front of the chains and giving Will Howard a clean pocket would give Ohio State a big edge.
Take nothing away from the season that Texas have put together and the level of play that the Secondary have found, but their most recent games have been more difficult when it comes to stopping the pass. Will Howard can connect with the likes of Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith against the Longhorns Secondary and they can certainly pick up from where they left off against the Oregon Ducks as a team.
Ohio State look a big more battle hardened for a Semi Final of this magnitude and the team look to have got things figured out in time for the chance to win another National Championship.
Beating the Texas Longhorns will be far from easy, especially in Dallas, but the Buckeyes might have the more balanced Offensive game-plan and the stronger play at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes Secondary might be operating at a higher level than their counterparts with the Longhorns and it all may just end up leading to another big win for Ohio State to move into the National Championship Game to be played later this month.
MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Under 45.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
PlayOff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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