Madison Keys is a Grand Slam Champion.
If you had told me that a decade ago, it would not have caused much surprise, but it really had felt like the American had missed her best chances to win a Major.
Beating the top two players on the Tour in back to back matches makes the victory all the sweeter, and Madison Keys can go into the rest of the 2025 season filled with confidence.
On Sunday another player who has gotten close to winning a Major is trying to win a maiden title at this level when Alexander Zverev looks to get the better of Jannik Sinner.
It is a good looking Final and a tough one to call- the head to head suggests it will be very close, while there is one or two doubts about a hip injury that Sinner is carrying after his Semi Final win over Ben Shelton.
Any lingering issue would make Alexander Zverev a big price to win this match outright, but it would be a surprise if this one is not a battle and so my last selection from the 2025 Australian Open moves towards an angle which can be read below.
Jannik Sinner-Alexander Zverev over 39.5 games: Two injuries were the tale of the day when the Semi Final matches were played on Friday, but Jannik Sinner was able to overcome his hip issue to see off Ben Shelton in the Night Session.
All eyes will be on the World Number 1 and defending Champion as he looks to recover and prepare for the Australian Open Final when the 2025 tournament comes to a close on Sunday.
Alexander Zverev is the opponent after he was the beneficiary of a Novak Djokovic injury that forced the ten time former Champion to withdraw from the Semi Final at the end of the first set. The fans in attendance voiced their extreme disappointment with boos as Djokovic left the court, which was poor from those in the stands to say the least, and Alexander Zverev was quick to point that out.
It has felt that Zverev has perhaps missed his opportunity to win a Grand Slam in previous attempts, but this may be one more big chance for him to really spark his career. Take nothing away from the consistency that has taken the German into World Number 2, but Alexander Zverev could put a few Grand Slams in the trophy cabinet if he is able to win the first one.
No matter what, Alexander Zverev is going to enter this match in healthier shape than Jannik Sinner who is clearly carrying a couple of knocks. The hip issue could become a very tough one to overcome if Jannik Sinner is not able to recover over the forty-eight hours between Semi Final and Final and the head to head with Alexander Zverev suggests it would be a close match even if both were healthy as they could be ahead of this Final.
Both players have been producing at a very high level in this tournament and the serve has been a key shot for Sinner and Zverev.
With that in mind, it would be tough to serve with any kind of hip issue that is painful on landing and that may just give Alexander Zverev, the significant underdog, the edge.
The World Number 2 has the edge in terms of former matches with Alexander Zverev holding a 4-2 lead over Jannik Sinner on all surfaces and that becomes 3-1 when only focusing on hard court matches. Alexander Zverev has beaten Sinner twice at the US Open, including a five set win at the 2023 tournament, but it was the Italian who won their most recent meeting in Cincinnati in a match that was had three competitive sets played out.
It was a close match and it would not have taken much to swing things back in favour of Alexander Zverev, but it is an important mental step for Jannik Sinner to have taken to win that Semi Final in a big tournament.
He has been the superior server of the two in Melbourne over the last two weeks and Jannik Sinner has had the slight edge when it comes to the return.
This means he is rightly set as favourite, although the issue at the end of the Semi Final is one that will cause some doubt and Alexander Zverev may feel the longer he has the top Seed out on the court, the more the match pendulum will swing in his favour.
Assuming both are ready to go on Sunday evening in Melbourne, serving could be key and this could be another Australian Open Final that goes long.
Five of the last eight Men's Finals have needed all five sets to determine a winner and the last Grand Slam match between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner did the same at the US Open in 2023. It would not be a surprise if sets go deep and four might be all that is needed to ensure the total games line is passed.
MY PICK: Jannik Sinner-Alexander Zverev Over 39.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 27-13, + 17.40 Units (77 Units Staked, + 22.60% Yield)
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