Four winners from five selections have to be welcomed to conclude the first week at the Australian Open and it has been a much stronger start to the event than twelve months ago.
There is still plenty of work to do with the Fourth Round beginning on Day 8 in Melbourne and the matches are getting tougher to call.
However, there are five selections below from the Singles matches scheduled to be played and hopefully the second week picks up from where the first left off.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jiri Leheckha: There looks to be an absolute plan for Novak Djokovic to not overexert himself early at the Australian Open and especially not with some the way the draw has lined up in front of him.
Arguably the greatest player of all time, Novak Djokovic is fallen to World Number 7 over the last twelve months and that is because the player is focusing almost completely on finding his best form at Grand Slam events. Last year there was also plenty of stock placed into winning an Olympic Gold Medal, which Novak Djokovic did earn in Paris, but it cannot be ignored that he only reached one Grand Slam Final and failed to win another big title to move past all that have come before him in terms of Singles Grand Slam titles won.
Melbourne and London might be the best opportunities that Novak Djokovic will have to add to the 24 Grand Slam titles won, but this year he is likely going to have to beat the top three Ranked players in the World to secure yet another trophy at the Australian Open.
With that in mind, Novak Djokovic is doing what he needs to in order to win matches, but we are now entering the second week of the tournament. This should sharpen focus and it should not be overlooked that Novak Djokovic has been playing at a decent level.
Next up is Jiri Lehecka who has quietly moved through the draw with very little pushback.
The Czechia World Number 29 is moving ever closer to cracking the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time and an upset over Djokovic will likely push Jiri Lehecka into the elite company.
The serve is a big weapon for Jiri Lehecka, but he will be well aware that is facing perhaps the greatest return player of all time in this Fourth Round match and at a venue where Novak Djokovic has had considerable success. Failing to be able to serve as effectively as he had previously would put a lot of pressure on the Lehecka return and that has not really been up to the standard needed to really expect deep runs in these big Grand Slam events.
Eight straight wins will give Jiri Lehecka all of the confidence he needs to take on a legend of the sport, but this is a big step up compared with those previous opponents. He has beaten World Number 13 Holger Rune and World Number 10 Grigor Dimitrov this season, but Lehecka will have to be a lot better than when he was beaten in the United Cup by Novak Djokovic in January 2024 and the expectation is that the ten time former Australian Open Champion will be able to find the tennis needed to cover this spread set.
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Jack Draper: Neither of these players took in an official warm up event in preparation for the Australian Open, but both have backed up their Seeding to earn this spot in the Fourth Round.
The manner of reaching this Round could not have been much different though and it is fitting that Carlos Alcaraz is such a big favourite to beat Jack Draper.
If this match was played next week, you would actually give Jack Draper an opportunity to challenge the World Number 3, but it has already been a very long week for the British player. The three wins will have helped Jack Draper just cement his place in the top 20 of the World Rankings, but it is far from ideal preparation for a match like this one that he has needed to play all fifteen possible sets at Melbourne Park to earn passage into the Fourth Round.
You could make a bit more of a case for Draper if he had not spent well over 12 hours on the court already and there has to be some real concerns about fatigue issues.
In reality this would have been a tough match no matter when it was played and Carlos Alcaraz has made serene progress through the draw and been on the court for half the time that Jack Draper has had.
The Spaniard has made his intentions very clear this week as he looks to complete the career Grand Slam before he turns 22 years old and the level produced by Carlos Alcaraz makes it very difficult to oppose him.
And it is not as if Carlos Alcaraz has benefited from an easy draw having faced the highest Rank opponent that either himself or Jack Draper have overcome.
And it is not as if Carlos Alcaraz has benefited from an easy draw having faced the highest Rank opponent that either himself or Jack Draper have overcome.
The serve has been a big weapon for Carlos Alcaraz on the hard courts and he has maintained that level in the three wins this week. Jack Draper will believe in his own serving ability, but that potential fatigue factor could see the British player weaken behind that shot, while Carlos Alcaraz will feel he is the superior return player and that should put him in a position to win, and win well.
Jack Draper did reach the US Open Semi Final in September, and he gave Jannik Sinner plenty to think about even in a straight sets defeat. However, Draper made much easier progress into that Semi Final and would have had a lot more to give, but that looks unlikely on Day 8 at the Australian Open after the amount of tennis he has already played.
This is a monster spread for a Fourth Round match, but Carlos Alcaraz is capable of wearing down his opponent and eventually pulling clear for the cover.
Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This is not a surprising Fourth Round match at a Grand Slam in terms of names, but you have to give Belinda Bencic a lot of credit for earning her spot in the second week of the Australian Open.
She has only recently returned from maternity leave and Belinda Bencic has already made it clear that it was something of a late decision for her to even travel to Australia.
After coming through Qualifying in Adelaide and playing a couple of matches at the United Cup, Belinda Bencic may have entered the draw believing one or two wins could be earned. An upset of Seeded Jelena Ostapenko in the First Round will have given the former World Number 4 a real boost in confidence, but Belinda Bencic has not played this much tennis in a short space of time and you do have to wonder if a build of fatigue is going to be a factor.
It is also a Fourth Round match against one of the favourites to win the title in Melbourne and Coco Gauff was a very confident winner in the Third Round. The American looks like she is building up her intensity and levels as Gauff looks to peak next Saturday and there is no doubting the strength of her tennis on a hard court.
There have been one or two frustrations with her serving, but Coco Gauff's numbers have been impressive and she is really getting her teeth into the return.
Belinda Bencic is a very effective hard court player in her own right, but the long absence of playing at this level and the three matches already played this week might end up working against her. She can be tough to beat, but Jasmine Paolini was a very comfortable winner over Belinda Bencic at the United Cup and this is the toughest test the Swiss player will have had since returning to the Tour.
It will also not be lost on Belinda Bencic that the last time she faced Coco Gauff, she was able to win just three games on the hard courts of Washington and it may be tough to contain the favourite in this one.
The spread is a big line considering the ability of Belinda Bencic, but Coco Gauff can use her serve to build scoreboard pressure that eventually wears down an opponent making a return to the Tour.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 17-7, + 11.60 Units (45 Units Staked, + 25.78% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment