The Quarter Finals are set to begin on Day 10 at the Australian Open and there is little doubt that the last match heading out onto the court is the one that most fans will be looking forward to seeing.
That doesn't mean the rest of the schedule can be ignored and there are players in the current World's top three who are looking to back up their Seeding by booking a spot in the final four.
The selections from Day 10 can be read below and there is also the update to the tournament totals after another decent day to keep the number ticking in a positive direction.
Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Paula Badosa: The winner of this one will be expecting two time defending Australian Open Champion to be waiting in the Semi Final, but this is a tough Quarter Final for both Coco Gauff and Paula Badosa and deserves full focus.
It helps that they are going on before the other Quarter Final scheduled for Day 10 at the 2025 tournament and any match featuring two of the current top 12 in the World Rankings should bring in plenty of fans.
In the live WTA Rankings, Coco Gauff is pretty well set as the World Number 3, but Paula Badosa will almost certainly end the tournament as a top 10 Ranked player if she can reach the Semi Final. That brings extra motivation to the court for the Spaniard, who has had a difficult twelve months in terms of consistency and remaining healthy, but Paula Badosa is looking stronger on the court right now.
There wasn't much encouragement from the performances in the warm up events, but Paula Badosa has played well through the first four Rounds in Melbourne. The run includes a win over World Number 18 Marta Kostyuk, albeit in her toughest match of the tournament so far, and the Ukrainian is the highest Ranked player either of these Quarter Finalists have had to face.
It should give Paula Badosa confidence, but Coco Gauff is one of the stronger hard court players on the WTA Tour and the American looks to be peaking at the right time.
The first serve is very effective, when it lands, and Coco Gauff has the edge between these two players when it comes to the return. The key to the match may actually be the Paula Badosa second serve, which has been really well looked after at the Australian Open this year, and it may be the battle on those points that determines the direction of the match.
These players are very familiar with one another and this is the seventh match on the Tour with the most recent won in three sets by Coco Gauff on the hard courts of Beijing. The World Number 3's second serve has been exploited by Paula Badosa, but it is also telling that Coco Gauff has been able to really get her teeth into the Badosa service games and that may be the difference between them here.
Where Coco Gauff may expect to get a few more cheaper points behind the first serve, Paula Badosa may have to battle to protect her serve regardless of whether the first or second serve is in play. In that match in Beijing, Coco Gauff created 20 Break Points compared with 10 for Paula Badosa and the feeling is that the higher Ranked player can build scoreboard pressure in this Quarter Final too.
Credit has to be given to Paula Badosa for pushing that match in Beijing into a deciding set and she is a very capable performer on the hard courts.
However, the consistency of Coco Gauff may just prove to be too much and she may end up finding the breaks of serve that put her in a position to reach yet another Grand Slam Semi Final and with a cover of this spread too.
Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: As soon as the draw was made for the Men's Singles event at the Australian Open, fans would have immediately have been thinking ahead to this potential Quarter Final.
Both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have produced some very strong tennis to make their way through the Australian Open draw with little fuss and that should mean there are no excuses at either side of the net when it comes to the final outcome of this big match.
Barring a win, Novak Djokovic is in danger of actually dropping in the World Rankings, but that is a number that no longer concerns the Serb. The only number of note for Novak Djokovic is 25 as he looks to move ahead of every single player who has played previously in numbers of Grand Slam titles won.
A ten time Champion in Australia, some believe this tournament and Wimbledon remain Djokovic's most likely places to add to his amazing Grand Slam total. He may believe differently, but Novak Djokovic has something to prove after failing to win a Grand Slam in 2024 and only making one Final over the course of the year, even if he did win Olympic Gold in Paris.
He has never been beaten on the hard courts by Carlos Alcaraz having won their two matches in 2023, but the 21 year old is getting stronger all the time.
Confidence is not an issue for Carlos Alcaraz who has made it clear how much he wants to win the Australian Open to complete his Grand Slam set and preparation looks to have been perfect for him. Wins have been achieved over Novak Djokovic in the very biggest spots- two Wimbledon Finals- but there is still a massive test in facing the former World Number 1 and especially here in Melbourne.
Last year Jannik Sinner swatted away the Novak Djokovic challenge in four sets in the Semi Final here at the Australian Open, but this match is expected to be much tougher for Carlos Alcaraz with Djokovic looking stronger than he did twelve months ago.
Both are serving at an incredible level in the tournament and there is no doubt the importance of maintaining those numbers, while Carlos Alcaraz may feel he has the edge as far as the return goes. That might be the difference when you look at the numbers at the Australian Open, but also a look at how Novak Djokovic has performed behind his strongest shot over the last twelve months on this surface.
Novak Djokovic only facing a top 10 Ranked opponent for the third time on the hard courts over the last twelve months and it should be noted that he has struggled on his return in the other two matches. That is obviously a ridiculously small sample from which to make sweeping statements, but the feeling is that Andy Murray has been employed as a Coach to perhaps help improve that.
Over the same time span, Carlos Alcaraz has played top 10 Ranked opponents nine times on the hard courts and he has won seven of those matches. The two defeats were at the Tour Finals when Alcaraz admitted he was suffering with some kind of illness, but overall he has shown himself capable of stepping up against the elite of the Tour and winning more often than not on this surface.
In those matches, the service numbers dip slightly, which is not a surprise, but Carlos Alcaraz has maintained a very strong return game.
This is a big Quarter Final from a mental point of view for the current World Number 3, but Carlos Alcaraz has shown he has the strength to pass the test and he may just do so in impressive fashion against a dominant former Champion.
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Tommy Paul: The World Number 2 Alexander Zverev has made his way through the Australian Open without too many issues and he will be quite glad with the way has worked out for him. Of course there are still tougher tests ahead, but the focus for Alexander Zverev will be trying to win this match without exerting all of his energy and then hoping Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz drag each other into a battle that lasts hours.
Overlooking Tommy Paul and believing the World Number 11 can be beaten without full focus would be a mistake, but Alexander Zverev should not lack focus having been beaten by this opponent in both previous matches on the Tour.
Both have been victories for Tommy Paul on the hard courts too, while he was Ranked at Number 66 and Number 39 when winning those matches.
He is a much more confident player in 2025 than he was in March 2022 when last facing Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul has looked strong at the Australian Open after a battle to win his First Round match. After dropping the opening set in the Second Round, Tommy Paul has won nine straight sets in the tournament and he has dropped more than two games within any of those sets twice.
Tommy Paul will want to have a more consistent impact at the Grand Slams to really push on and this is just his third Quarter Final- he was a Semi Finalist in Melbourne two years ago and reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final last year, but it has been a chore for the American to merely make the second week at a Slam.
The level being produced by Tommy Paul is impressive and he is going to be dangerous if he continues to be as productive on the return as he has been in the tournament. Solid movement and an ability to turn defence into attack has made Tommy Paul one of the better return players on the hard courts, but he will be well aware of the kind of serving that Alexander Zverev is putting together at this opening Grand Slam of 2025.
The German has been dominant behind the shot, although he has been broken twice in each of the last two Rounds. Despite that, Alexander Zverev is winning almost 73% of the points played behind serve, which has led to 92% of service games being held and it could be that shot that contains the threat posed by the lower Ranked opponent.
It is a Quarter Final that looks like it will be a battle and the numbers produced by Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul against top ten Ranked opponents over the last twelve months on the hard courts have been similar. The World Number 2 has been the better server in those matches, but Tommy Paul has been the superior returner and it does feel like the Alexander Zverev games will be where this match is one or lost.
If Alexander Zverev is serving as he has throughout this tournament, it could be tough for Tommy Paul who is perhaps not as battle tested as he would have liked. The American deserves a lot of respect for his abilities on the court, but the feeling is that Alexander Zverev may just edge some of the most important points with an ability to get out of a jam behind big serving and that can lead him through to the Semi Final with a win in likely four sets.
MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 23-8, + 20.42 Units (59 Units Staked, + 34.61% Yield)
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