The Women's Final has been set after Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys were able to win Semi Final matches played on Day 12 at the Australian Open.
Fans of big hitting tennis are going to enjoy the occasion, although some would have been hoping to see the top two players in the World Rankings competing for the first Grand Slam of the season.
There is still a chance of that happening in the Men's Final, although that would not at least an upset in the first Semi Final scheduled on Day 13 when Novak Djokovic takes on the Number 2 Seed Alexander Zverev.
Out of the two Semi Final matches, the first does look like the one that the fans will enjoy most, although Ben Shelton will want to give the defending Champion something to think about in the Night Session.
Novak Djokovic-Alexander Zverev over 40.5 games: Both of these players showed tremendous grit and determination to win Quarter Final matches where the losing opponent will have been left with a lot of regret.
That is arguably more for Tommy Paul against Alexander Zverev having served to win both of the first two sets, but being broken and eventually downed in four sets by the World Number 2.
For Carlos Alcaraz the Quarter Final loss to Novak Djokovic will have just given the young Spaniard another learning moment as he allowed arguably the greatest player of all time get in his head. Dropping the first set, Novak Djokovic looked like he was carrying a major injury that was limiting his movement, but Carlos Alcaraz played a really poor match and ultimately will feel he allowed the former World Number 1 off the hook.
Novak Djokovic will not care and instead is feeling very grateful for an extra day of rest between his Quarter Final win and this big Semi Final. This is going to be used to make sure he is ready to compete as healthy as he can be and Novak Djokovic might hold a slight mental edge over Alexander Zverev having won the biggest matches they have played against one another at Grand Slam events.
However, it has been some time since Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev last faced off and the latter is most definitely at the peak of his powers.
Six of the last eight Grand Slams played by Alexander Zverev have seen the player reach the Quarter Final, and this is the fourth time he has played in the Semi Final. Getting over the line and reaching a Grand Slam Final has been tougher with just one appearance on the final Sunday in that run of form and winning a Major is the only ambition left for Alexander Zverev.
There is room for improvement in the serving numbers if Alexander Zverev is going to upset Novak Djokovic, and he is facing a great returner who will keep the pressure on him. A high percentage of first serves is key, while Zverev is certainly capable of getting enough returns back in play to hurt Novak Djokovic too.
Of course Novak Djokovic is going to feel pretty comfortable in the match up, as long as he is not suffering lingering problems from the issue that was affecting him in the Quarter Final. Both previous Grand Slam matches between these players on the hard courts have been pretty competitive, but Novak Djokovic has played the big points better than Alexander Zverev so you do have to give him the edge overall.
However, it is foolish to ignore the improvements made by the World Number 2 and the fact that Novak Djokovic is older and has only reached one Grand Slam Final since the US Open in 2023. It may mean another long, competitive match is played between the two players in this Semi Final and they may produce enough positive serving to produce the games to surpass this total set.
Jannik Sinner-Ben Shelton over 32.5 games: The World Number 1 was in imperious form in the Quarter Final win over Alex De Minaur and any worries about Jannik Sinner being held back by an illness have been erased.
He admitted he had been feeling much better after the tough Fourth Round win over Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner was able to continue his dominance of the last remaining Australian competing in Melbourne. The match up is simply not a very good one for Alex De Minaur who does not have the power to keep Jannik Sinner from taking over the rallies, while the Italian is always going to have the consistency to eventually break down De Minaur, as proved to be the case in the Quarter Final.
The layers are expecting another routine win for Jannik Sinner when he takes on young American Ben Shelton, but the latter has a much bigger game than Alex De Minaur and that makes him that much more dangerous for the top Seed to deal with.
Unsurprisingly Jannik Sinner does have a winning record against Ben Shelton and the main reason for that is that the World Number 20 is still working on being more effective on the return of serve. This is an issue that Shelton will want to address if he has serious ambitions of winning a Grand Slam, but all the other tools are there for him with big groundstrokes backing up a huge serve.
This Semi Final is going to be all about first strike tennis as far as Ben Shelton is concerned, while Jannik Sinner has to feel confident of his chances if he can neutralise a rally early and then allow his own consistency and big hitting to take over. The backhand advantage for Jannik Sinner gives him the edge, but he will be well aware of the threat that Ben Shelton brings onto the court.
It was a routine win for Jannik Sinner when these two met on the grass at Wimbledon last year, but matches between the pair have been a lot closer on the hard courts.
Ben Shelton won their first hard court match in Shanghai in 2023, but Jannik Sinner has responded by winning the next three, including both played on this surface in 2024. However, Sinner needed to save 7 Break Points in his win over Ben Shelton in Shanghai at the back end of last season and took his one opportunity to earn a tight, competitive win over the American.
This match is expected to be played in the Night Session at Melbourne Park and that may give Jannik Sinner another edge having been used to playing in the conditions on this court. It is another test for Ben Shelton, but the 22 year old has to be encouraged by his performance against the World Number 1 in Shanghai and a big serving day could see him push Jannik Sinner.
As solid as a return player Jannik Sinner has become, it should be noted that he has not had consistent success against the Ben Shelton serve with 14% of return games ending in breaks when competing against the American on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months Jannik Sinner's number is actually closer to 30% on this surface and that just underlines the challenges faced by the top Seed in this Semi Final.
Even in their two matches last year on this surface, Sinner was able to break in one of five return games and this could be a Semi Final which sees competitive sets played.
A three set win for Jannik Sinner may make it difficult to cover this total number of games line, but if Ben Shelton is serving as he can, the match up is one where even a straight sets win might be enough. The Break Points created in Shanghai will give Ben Shelton confidence that he can avoid losing a seventh, eighth and ninth set in a row on this surface against Jannik Sinner and this is a Semi Final that may also go longer than the layers are anticipating.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Alexander Zverev Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner-Ben Shelton Over 32.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 27-11, + 21.40 Units (73 Units Staked, + 29.32% Yield)
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