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Saturday, 25 January 2025

Boxing Picks 2025- Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson (Saturday 25th January)

There was a Friday morning card from Japan featuring the Monster and so the main thread for the week can be read here.

In this one, the focus is on the back to back cards Matchroom have scheduled from the United Kingdom and United States with twelve hours of Boxing for fans to enjoy.

The fighters the promotion are representing are hoping to get through tough challenges and then move onto World Title fights in the months ahead.

A decent undercard has been put together with other fighters looking to move into headlining events of their own and so it is an important night before the first Super Fight of 2025 next weekend.



Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson

Injury meant a big step backwards for Steven Nelson, and he has perhaps not been given the opportunities that he would have wanted as an unbeaten fighter.

He works with Terence Crawford and Bomac and Steven Nelson will be well prepared for a fight that could open the door for World Titles and big financial rewards in the weeks and months ahead.

A serious injury kept him out of the ring for a long time, but the Nelson return has been very slow with a single fight in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and against opponents nothing like the one he is facing in this bout in January.

Diego Pacheco has been told to 'wait his turn' by Bomac, but the 23 year old is impatient and the development of the young fighter has been very good. He has had those learning fights and those tough moments, and Diego Pacheco is looking to win this contest and then perhaps target the World Titles.

The younger of the two fighters is already pretty highly Ranked with three of the governing bodies and so Diego Pacheco could be in line for a World Title shot at some point over the next twelve months.

All of that will go to waste if he was to lose on Saturday and that is the pressure of this fight.

You know Steven Nelson will be well prepared in the gym and he will have gotten some solid sparring, while the tactics of his trainer are going to be spot on.

However, there is no moving away from the fact that Steven Nelson has been relatively inactive and all of the physical advantages are with the younger fighter. At 36 years old, Nelson will be well aware that sparring is not the same as actually fighting and so it has to be accepted that he is taking a considerable step up in terms of level of opponent compared with those he has faced in the past.

The progress of Diego Pacheco has been put together very well by his team and promoter and that activity gives him another advantage.

It may be a fight that is a slow burner, but Pacheco should build the pressure over the course of this Twelve Round fight and that may eventually see him just wear down Steven Nelson.

You have to give all of the respect to Nelson and his training team and you know he will be well prepared, but Diego Pacheco feels like a whole new level of experience for the veteran and the younger man can make a statement before calling out some of the Champions and bigger names in and around the Super Middleweight Division.


Andy Cruz is on the undercard and expected to continue on his fast track towards a World Title bid- he should be able to secure the victory, but finding a good angle to get behind him is very difficult.

A late Stoppage or a wide Points victory are the likely outcomes, but the layers are very much expecting the same.

There are also big expectations on the shoulders of 23 year old Ernesto Mercado who has an unbeaten record and found a Stoppage in fifteen in his sixteen victories.

A lot of those victories have been very early, but veteran Jose Pedraza could just push him a little longer, which can only be good for Mercado's development.

Last year Jose Pedraza was Stopped in the Sixth Round by Keyshawn Davis, who will be fighting for a World Title next month, but that is only his second defeat inside the distance. Arnold Barboza Jr needed the cards to get the better of Pedraza in 2023, while Vasyl Lomachenko is another who could not force this opponent to quit.

The layers are expecting another early night for Ernesto Mercado, but the feeling is that he will do well to end this quicker than Keyshawn Davis did and a small interest on the younger, progressive fighter to secure a Stoppage in the second half of this contest is warranted.


Before all of the action gets going in Las Vegas, Matchroom are putting on a card in Nottingham headlined by Dalton Smith who is expecting to make a significant move in his career in 2025.

Hopes of a domestic showdown with Adam Azim continue to be dashed with reports suggesting that was a fight being negotiated for the undercard of the upcoming Chris Eubank Jr-Conor Benn bout at the end of April, but Dalton Smith's career continues to develop in a positive trajectory.

Winning here could place Dalton Smith in the mandatory shot for the WBC World Title in the Light-Welterweight Division and the British fighter is a big favourite.

Walid Ouizza is the opponent for this vacant European Title that was once held by Adam Azim and Dalton Smith should have far too much for the Frenchman.

Early defeats in his career have been overcome, but this is another step upwards for Walid Ouizza and the power of Dalton Smith is expected to be a considerable factor in the outcome of this Title Fight.

Winning European Title fights are rarely easy, but Dalton Smith is chasing World honours and he is likely going to have the firepower to get on top relatively early on in this one.

Wearing down Walid Ouizza, Dalton Smith might be set for another mid-fight finish as he has secured in his last two wins and he can then target a really big fight, potentially at Hillsborough, in the summer.

MY PICKS: Diego Pacheco to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Ernesto Mercado to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Dalton Smith to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 3-1, + 3.53 Units (6 Units Staked, + 58.83% Yield)

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