We are down to the final three games of the 2024 NFL season and the Championship Games are going to set the Super Bowl match up for two weeks time.
It has been a fun season and you would say that at least one of the teams involved are a surprise name, but in the main we are set for two big games and the Super Bowl should be a lot of fun regardless of the match up that will be set.
The season is going to be one that finishes with a winning record, but a strong end is the target and then to get ready to go again in eight months time.
My only hope is that there is less refereeing controversy this week compared with the Divisional Round.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Having a rookie Quarter Back along with a first year Head Coach and then being blown out in Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suggested the Washington Commanders (14-5) would have to go through something of a transitional season in the tough NFC East.
Instead, Jayden Daniels has surpassed all expectations and Head Coach Dan Quinn has set a standard, which the Commanders players having been very willing to follow.
Getting into the Playoffs is a big achievement for Washington, but even the most optimistic of fans could not have expected the Commanders to win consecutive road games for the first time in the post-season. Upsets over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions, the Number 1 Seed, has given Washington an opportunity to play the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season when they won the Super Bowl.
A familiar opponent will be in front of the Commanders as they play the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) for the third time in the 2024 season.
The two teams split the regular season meetings, but the Eagles will feel pretty comfortable in the match up, even if Jayden Daniels is playing at a very high level.
Of course there has to be some confidence in the Washington ranks having beaten the Eagles in the most recent meeting, but that was also a game in which Philadelphia Quarter Back Jalen Hurts was out with a concussion very early on. And even then, it took a late drive from the Commanders to earn the victory, while the game here at Lincoln Financial Field was dominated by the home team.
The scoreboard might not say that, but Washington had a late score to keep that defeat respectable and they will be well aware of the challenge coming up as they look to return to the Super Bowl.
Jalen Hurts missed some time after the concussion suffered in December, but he took another heavy hit in the Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams last week. There was clearly some impact on his movement in the second half and Hurts is likely going to operate with a knee brace in the NFC Championship Game, although the reports during the week is that the Quarter Back is going to be in better shape than he ended the last game.
Even if Hurts is not as mobile as usual, the Philadelphia Offensive Line is going to be the dominant force in this game and they will feel they can rip open some big running lanes for Saquon Barkley. Last week the Running Back was key to the successes the Eagles had and he should have another big game when facing this Washington Defensive Line struggling to make consistent stops.
It should make life that much more comfortable for Jalen Hurts and the conditions should be easier in which to throw compared with the Divisional Round. The cold can make things tough for Receivers, but this Eagles team have plenty of talented playmakers that will likely be in one on one coverage at times if the Offensive Line pummels Washington up front.
Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders may feel they can run the ball with some success in this one too, although there has been a difficult injury on the Offensive Line that will hurt the underdog. The mobile Quarter Back helps, but Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler will be hoping that the Offensive Line will still be able to give them some opportunities against this tough Eagles Defensive Line.
Without a real running threat, the Eagles could really get after Jayden Daniels and it is very important for Washington to keep this one close on the scoreboard to avoid having to throw over and over again. If they are in third and long or obviously chasing points, Philadelphia's pass rush is going to have a big impact in this game, while the Eagles Secondary have been playing at a high standard all season.
Throwing against them will be tougher for Jayden Daniels than it was against an injury hit Lions team and the Philadelphia Eagles are deserving favourites.
They look like the team that will have the better Offensive balance and the Eagles can use home advantage to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.
Running the ball and controlling the clock can be backed up by a very good Defensive unit and it feels like time is going to hit midnight for Jayden Daniels and the upstart Washington Commanders in this NFC Championship Game.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In recent years, the Buffalo Bills (15-4) have gotten the better of the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in the regular season, but beating them when it really matters has been beyond their reach.
In 2024, the Bills have secured another regular season win over Kansas City, but the AFC Championship Game sees the two come together in the Playoff once again. Three of the last four Buffalo Playoff runs have been ended by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium after barely holding off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.
The Kansas City Chiefs did not have it much easier against the Houston Texans, but they have an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of the AFC Championship Game and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills had a much tougher Divisional Round win.
On one hand they will feel battle hardened, but the other is the physical toll a game against the powerful Ravens will have had on the players and the Buffalo Bills still have so much to prove as they look to make the Super Bowl for the first time since January 1994 when they were beaten for the fourth time in a row as the AFC representative.
Controversial decisions overshadowed Kansas City's win over Houston last week with some bogus flags being thrown to keep the Offensive unit on the field, but they will need more from Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs are going to win a third Super Bowl in a row. The zebras are hopefully not going to be over-involved in this AFC Championship Game after being criticised for some of the flags thrown last week, with conspiracy theorists offering their belief that the NFL would like to see the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if it means Taylor Swift will be attending.
Regardless of some of the poor calls, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are only concentrating on imposing themselves on this Championship Game. No one can take away from the talent and success Mahomes has had, especially as the Kansas City Chiefs have offered little support on the ground.
Andy Reid is very happy moving away from seeing run plays called and that has had to be the position for the Kansas City Chiefs with the Offensive Line struggling. They are not expected to have a lot more joy rushing the ball against this Buffalo Defensive Line and that will mean all of the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes to make plays with his arm and legs.
He is capable of doing that, but becoming one-dimensional may give the Buffalo Bills to make some big plays.
Patrick Mahomes does not have the consistent Receiving option that he would like, but Travis Kelce is playing in Playoff mode and the Quarter Back should be able to make some plays down the field. However, it has not been easy to throw against this Buffalo Secondary and the Bills should believe they can contain the home team for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.
For everything he has achieved in the NFL, Josh Allen knows that he will be judged by successes in the Playoff and he is going to be the key player for Buffalo. Last week Allen got the better of Lamar Jackson by playing a clean game and more of that will be needed against this Kansas City Defensive unit that deserves a lot of credit for the team building the record that they have.
It may be Josh Allen's legs that make the first impact on this game with the Kansas City Defensive Line just having one or two issues stopping the run in recent games. With James Cook behind him, Buffalo can use the RPO to just move into third and manageable positions on the field, which is key for a team that does not have a stand out Receiver, but have a number of players ready to make the big catch when needed.
Playing in front of the chains negates what has been a disruptive Kansas City pass rush with Josh Allen not having to hold onto the ball for too long and the Buffalo Bills may find a balance in their play-calling that gives them the edge.
In recent years we have seen Buffalo falter in the big moments and the Kansas City Chiefs are two time defending Super Bowl Champions so it is not easy to back against the Chiefs here.
However, the Buffalo Bills may have come through their most difficult challenge after winning the turnover battle against the powerful Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen may finally take this franchise back into the Super Bowl.
Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have found a way to win games when not being at their best all season, but they will need their best to beat Buffalo. The struggles to run the ball may just mean Buffalo can prepare a little more for what is to come from the home team and the Secondary have played well enough to stall drives.
With Josh Allen's dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, the Buffalo Bills may just come through as the narrow underdog in the AFC Championship Game.
MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)
Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)
Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Season 2024: + 5.90 Units
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