NFL Playoff Picks- Divisional Round 2025 (Saturday 18th January-Sunday 19th January)

The home teams dominated the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs and there are three big favourites hosting in the Divisional Round.

However, two of those are playing after Bye Weeks and so the road underdogs travelling to Kansas City and Detroit may hope that their own rhythm gives them a chance for the upset.

In reality it is going to be tough for any of the first three road teams going up, but the last game of the Divisional Round between Buffalo and Baltimore could be an epic... It is the game of the weekend and one that all are looking forward to as we finalise the last four teams standing ahead of the Championship Sunday coming up.

The NFL Picks moved back in a positive direction with a 4-2 return last week, but there is some frustration with the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew their chances to beat the Washington Commanders.

That was the sole home defeat in the Round, but it is still always nice to return a positive number and the hope is to kick on through the Divisional Round as we move into that time of the season when there are just seven games left until September.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC might be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoff after a Bye Week, but they will both be playing on Saturday.

First up is the AFC Number 1 Seed the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) who are looking to make history over the coming weeks.

There is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of their dynasty with three Super Bowl rings in the last of the five seasons. However, they can really cement their names in the history of the NFL by winning the Super Bowl for a third year in a row, something that has never been done before despite some of the top teams that have been around.

Even winning consecutive Super Bowl Championships has placed Kansas City amongst some of the very best teams in history. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Andy Reid and Quarter Back Patrick Mahomes for continuing to motivate themselves for more, but this season there has to be a lot of credit given to the Chiefs Defensive unit for the incredible record put together.

The Chiefs have rode their luck at times, but they are going to be very tough to beat with Arrowhead behind them.

Resting their starters in Week 18 does mean it has been a considerable layoff for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is a team that have become used to earning Byes in the post-season. Last year was very different and the Chiefs got hot at a very good time, while there won't be many rushing to back the Houston Texans (11-7) to earn a second upset in a row.

Winning as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round will have given the Texans a boost, but this is a very tough game for them on the road and in what is expected to be very cold temperatures at Arrowhead. CJ Stroud has shown his qualities since entering the NFL, but one of those has not been performing in these kind of cold weather temperatures and it will be tough for the Texans, a Dome team.

The Texans will need the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit to make some plays, but the Defensive unit have to pick up from where they left off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Houston Defensive Line will feel they can contain the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground and put all of the pressure on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, although this is a Quarter Back who thrives when he has the game on his shoulders.

It has not been a vintage season for Patrick Mahomes and this Texans Secondary have played well behind some of the pressure they have generated up front. In saying all that, you know Mahomes is going to scramble and extend plays and he has a huge amount of trust in all of his Receivers that he will keep drives moving.

A key for the Texans is to try and generate pressure with the front four and see if they can leave when in coverage, but it will be tough to completely lock down Patrick Mahomes. Instead the Defensive unit have to try and give their Offense a chance in this one by at least stalling some Kansas City drives and keeping their team in the game.

Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the Houston Texans and so the play-calling has perhaps become more reliant on the run rather than CJ Stroud and the pass. Joe Mixon has been having a strong end to the season for Houston and the encouraging part, as far as they are concerned, is that the Chiefs Defensive Line has been allowing teams to move the chains.

They may try and strengthen up front to force CJ Stroud to have to take to the air with the main threat being Nico Collins, and there have been one or two holes that the Quarter Back may feel he can exploit in the Secondary.

Avoiding turnovers is absolutely key for Houston, who were beaten here at Arrowhead just days before Christmas. That was a game where Kansas City only had a little over 60 yards more than Houston and it was a competitive game for a long time, which is the expectation of this Divisional Round game.

You would think having the Bye has given the home teams a big advantage in the Divisional Round, but that has not been the case and those teams are 3-5 against the spread.

And for all of Patrick Mahomes' qualities, he is just 22-32-3 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 7 points. For a long time the Chiefs have done what is needed to win games, but blowing teams away is not really high on their list of agendas in each week and there is every chance they begin to look ahead to the AFC Championship Game if getting into a two score lead.

The cold weather continues to be a concern, but CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as the underdog and the Texans can control the Line of Scrimmage, which should allow them to keep this close on the scoreboard at the very least.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Pick: In Week 18 the Detroit Lions (15-2) were able to get the better of Divisional rivals Minnesota for a second time in the regular season and that secured the NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A Bye through to the Divisional Round has given the Lions an opportunity to rest and allow other players to recover from injuries so they can take part in what Detroit are hoping is a maiden run to the Super Bowl.

Home advantage is secured through to the Super Bowl, but there is some pressure on the Detroit Lions who have made it very clear that winning the Championship is their only ambition for the season.

Next up is the Washington Commanders (13-5) who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road last week, although the mistakes made by the Buccaneers at the end of that Wild Card game will haunt them through the off-season.

Jayden Daniels made some big plays late on, as he has throughout his rookie season, but it has been tough for rookie Quarter Backs to string wins together in the Playoff. The Commanders feel they have a special player behind Center, but this is another big test for Jayden Daniels and against the team many feel has been the best in the Conference all season.

Even as injuries have piled up, credit has to be given to the Lions for finding a way to clamp down on Offenses they have been facing.

The bend, don't break concept has worked for the Lions, but the first port of call for Detroit will be for the Defensive Line to play the run a little better than they have in recent games. Trying to keep the Commanders in third and long will give the Lions an opportunity to try and rattle Jayden Daniels, although the young Quarter Back has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and make his plays down the field even under pressure.

The Lions Secondary did give Sam Darnold problems in Week 18, but this is arguably a tougher test and they have given up enough yards through the air to offer Jayden Daniels and company plenty of encouragement.

Washington's own Defensive Line have played well in recent games and that is going to be key for them in this big road game in the Divisional Round. However, they have rarely been up against a powerful Offensive Line like the one that Detroit will be bringing onto the field.

David Montgomery is back and the 'Sonic and Knuckles' combination when coupled with Jahmyr Gibbs will make it very difficult for the Commanders to keep tabs on the Lions.

That same Offensive Line has offered plenty of pass protection for Jared Goff too and giving the Quarter Back a bit of time in the pocket could see the Lions make some big plays down the field. The ability to run the ball opens up play-action, quick strike Football and the Lions are going to be very confident behind Jared Goff.

The Quarter Back has a 34-13-1 record against the spread when playing indoors for the Detroit Lions, while the game plan for this one should be well executed for a Head Coach who has an 11-2 record against the spread when having preparation time.

Historically the Lions have not been a team you want to back to cover big spreads, especially when facing teams with a winning record. However they covered in the post-season last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a biggish favourite and Detroit might just show their talent edge in this one against the overachieving Washington Commanders.

This is a big line though and Jayden Daniels can do enough to secure a backdoor cover with his own ability at Quarter Back.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points have a 26-17-1 record against the spread in this Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the Commanders can do enough to avoid the blowout. Teams that missed the Playoff the previous year have a 28-14 record against the spread in the Divisional Round and Washington may make use of this big number, even if it means opposing strong records that Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have put together.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: When you have a Head Coach and a Quarter Back who have won the Super Bowl together, you will always have a chance to make an impact in the post-season.

Despite being set as the underdog, the Los Angeles Rams (11-7) crushed the fourteen win Minnesota Vikings and they have been rewarded with a trip across the country for this big Divisional Round game in the Playoff.

If the regular season game is anything to go by, the Rams will know how tough this assignment would be in perfect conditions. However, the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) are going to be hosting in cold, snowy weather and that should suit the NFC East Champions who were able to beat Green Bay pretty comfortably here last week.

The conditions won't be something unfamiliar to the Eagles and that gives them a mental edge compared with the Los Angeles Rams who have to go through multiple time zones and play on the road, while also coming out of a warmer climate than what they have to play through in the Divisional Round.

Playing in wet, cold conditions also means a team will look to lean on the Offensive Line and the Philadelphia Eagles will have been keen to do that anyway. You can't blame the Eagles who have an Offensive Line that helped pile up 314 yards on the ground in the road win in Los Angeles.

Saquon Barkley has had a memorable season, but this is a smart player who will do the right thing for the team rather than for his own personal statistics. That really does make it easier for the Offensive Line to want to block for their Running Back, while Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of tucking and running himself.

Stopping the run has been a problem for the Rams and what many believe is an undersized Defensive Line and they are not expected to have a lot of success at pushing back against this Eagles Offensive Line. With the conditions expected, the Eagles will be comfortable moving the ball on the ground and then using the pass intermittently to the big Receivers that are aiding Jalen Hurts.

Los Angeles would love to have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball around the Stadium, but that might be tough in these conditions.

Kyren Williams have been playing really well for the Rams, but he is going to have a tough day in the office if trying to establish the run against this Eagles Defensive Line. So much of the success that Philadelphia have had this season has been thanks to the massive improvements made on the Defensive side of the ball and the Secondary have really been able to clamp down on the passes to make it very tough to sustain drives against them.

Matthew Stafford will have some time in the pocket, but throwing in snowy conditions will not be easy and especially not against this Defensive unit and the Philadelphia Eagles may just roll on.

Jalen Hurts does have a 15-7 record against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning record, while he is 3-0 against the spread at home in the Playoff.

You have to respect Sean McVay and his abilities as a Head Coach, but those teams that have earned a blowout win in the regular season have been very good at covering in the Playoff rematch and the expectation is that the Eagles frank the road win they secured over the Los Angeles Rams in November.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Most neutral fans will easily point to the final game of the Divisional Round as being the one they are looking forward to the most and both the Buffalo Bills (14-4) and Baltimore Ravens (13-5) hold genuine Super Bowl ambitions.

The two teams had been set as big favourites to win in the Wild Card Round when hosting, and the Bills and Ravens responded in kind. That has only increased the appetite to see this big Divisional Round game, which is a rematch of an early regular season meeting.

On that occasion it was the Baltimore Ravens hosting and they crushed the Buffalo Bills so will be confident in this rematch- as mentioned in the Rams-Eagles preview, teams that hold blowout wins in the regular season over a Playoff foe have actually performed really well in the second meeting.

On paper it does look like a tough match up for the Buffalo Bills, especially when they have the ball, and so there is going to be a lot of pressure on Quarter Back Josh Allen. The Bills would love to be able to run the ball, but the Offensive Line have not been playing with dominance down the stretch and running the ball against this Baltimore Defensive Line has proven to be tough throughout the 2024 season.

Josh Allen can tuck it and run, but the Ravens have their own dual-threat Quarter Back and so you have to believe the Defensive players understand how best to contain the Bills on the ground.

There are spaces in the Secondary to be exploited, even if the Baltimore Ravens Secondary have stepped up in recent games. However, this is Josh Allen at home and the confidence to spread the ball around means it will be tough for the Ravens to stop the Bills completely, even if they will have an edge keeping the home team in third and long spots.

Pushing around the Baltimore Defensive Line might not be something that the Buffalo Offensive Line can expect to do with consistency, but the bigger test may be in keeping Josh Allen upright and earning him the time to throw the ball down the field. The Bills have done that in recent games, but this time they may not be in front of the chains and the Ravens have a pass rush that have found a way to get home.

Baltimore will be expecting a bigger test from the Bills Offensively having restricted them to 10 points in the regular season game, while they may also believe this Buffalo team are going to be looking to prove themselves after losing 35-10. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson crushed the Bills on the ground and the Offensive Line showed that they are still very capable of wearing teams down up front as they proved against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card win.

The Bills Defensive Line have played well down the stretch, but this is a significant test for them and Buffalo have to win at the Line of Scrimmage. Winning in this sense means just forcing Lamar Jackson to have to throw out of Third and Six or Third and Seven and see if they can make plays through the air to change the momemtum.

Zay Flowers has been out of practice and remains Questionable for the Divisional Round game, but Lamar Jackson has others capable of filling the void as long as he is not expected to push the boat out with his passes. Much like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson has been given a lot of protection from the Offensive Line and that has given him the time to attack teams through the air, although this Buffalo Secondary has played well.

It has all of the makings of a really good game, but the edge has to be with Baltimore who might just dominate the Line of Scrimmage. In close games that could make all of the difference to just flip the field, or create a turnover or two, and the Ravens can frank their big regular season win with another over Buffalo.

Lamar Jackson has had his issues in the post-season, but he won't mind being favoured after the Ravens had initially opened up as the road underdog. The Quarter Back has a perfect 6-0 record against the spread when that has happened previously, while Lamar Jackson has an impressive 26-9 record against the spread if the line is set between plus and minus 3 points.

You have to think that Josh Allen and the Bills will be very aware that they are the home underdog, despite having the better record, and that could inspire the home team. However, the match up looks to be in favour of the Baltimore Ravens and they can be the one that most likely has to travel to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game next weekend.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.99 Units

Weekend Football Picks 2020 (January 18-19)

This is the first Football thread I am putting out there in 2020 as things have been a little hectic to start the New Year.

I even managed to miss one of the deadlines over the last three weeks which hurt seeing as I had already carried one Transfer over at the time, although it has not left me with a great setback. This week we have two Rounds of Premier League games to come and I think it is going to be a GameWeek in which I will hold my transfer and use two on Tuesday ahead of what is the first Double GameWeek of the season with both West Ham United and Liverpool playing twice over an eight day period. That makes up for a game that was postponed over the festive period and comes ahead of the Winter Break which is now only a couple of weeks from beginning as the Premier League schedule is split over two weekends.

It is not ideal for Fantasy players with the lack of team news ahead of the second half of those matches when the majority of the top teams are being scheduled to play. And those games are also just before the Champions League resumes so will need some negotiating to ensure the best elevens are picked.


That is for another week though and before that we have to get through this round of Premier League games. Below you can see my thoughts and how I feel the Premier League games will develop this weekend and then I will have a few thoughts about the latest Fantasy Week and update how my team has developed in the last two Rounds.


Watford v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend immediately leaps off the page as you can't really justify Tottenham Hotspur as the favourite to win at Vicarage Road.

First is the very poor away record of Tottenham Hotspur over the last year and coupled with the clear improvements Watford have made under Nigel Pearson I am surprised the odds for the home and away win aren't much closer. Add in the amount of goals Watford have been scoring and those that Tottenham Hotspur are conceding and it really makes it difficult to want to back the visitors at the prices.

Unlike Tottenham Hotspur, Watford did not play their FA Cup Third Round Replay during the week and that should also benefit a group of players who have to be excited about their upturn in form. The Hornets have won 3 Premier League games in a row at Vicarage Road and scored at least twice in each win which includes victories over Manchester United and Wolves who both sit above Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League table.

In the absence of Harry Kane Tottenham Hotspur have been struggling while key injuries in the middle of the park have contributed to their problems. They needed a very late goal to win at Wolves recently, but Tottenham Hotspur have lost at Southampton and drawn with Middlesbrough since then and I do like the way Watford have managed to hurt teams when they get forward.

Backing Watford on the Double Chance and coupling it with at least two goals being shared out on the day is an odds against shot and I do like that. I would not be surprised if there is at least three goals shared out at the end of this one, but Watford look under-rated considering how the two teams have been playing of late and it looks an appealing play.


Arsenal v Sheffield United Pick: There is no way Mikel Arteta is going to want to put the Premier League down to the back of his priority list, at least not in January with so much football to come. However this competition is likely going to be used as a chance to build some consistency with Arsenal more interested in picking up some silverware and potentially returning to the Champions League by winning the Europa League.

The Gunners have lost 1 of their 6 games played under Arteta, although half of those have ended in draws with the side still adjusting at both ends of the field to the new manager and his requirements.

Losing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to suspension is a big blow for Arsenal who have created some chances, but not found the cutting edge in front of goal. The striker has scored half of the six goals managed under Mikel Arteta and his absence against a well organised and disciplined Sheffield United team will be hard to make up for.

Sheffield United have won back to back games to regain some of the lost momentum following consecutive defeats at Manchester City and Liverpool. Both victories did come at home, but Sheffield United have continued to play at a very good level even through those losses and they should cause Arsenal all sorts of problems in this one too.

Chris Wilder's team know exactly what the manager demands from them and that has seen a consistent level to their performances all season. A clinical striker is perhaps still missing, but Sheffield United do create enough chances to believe they can avoid defeat here.

Losing at Manchester City and Liverpool is no disgrace and Sheffield United did play very well in the loss at the Etihad Stadium. On another day they may have earned an upset there, but Arsenal are not Manchester City and missing a key striker makes them vulnerable here.

I am surprised that Arsenal are odds on favourites for this one and I will take Sheffield United with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Brighton v Aston Villa Pick: On first glance you have to say that Brighton look very, very short to beat Aston Villa and I do wonder how much of that is down to the collapse the visitors had in their home game against Manchester City last Sunday.

Injuries are also taking a toll on the Aston Villa squad, but some reinforcements have arrived and Brighton have not exactly been in stellar form themselves. In fact they have lost 4 of their last 6 games in all competitions and won just 1 of their last 6 games at the Amex Stadium.

Those are not impressive numbers, while Brighton have failed to score in back to back games. Scoring goals is not really a major problem for Aston Villa though and they have won at Burnley and drawn at Leicester City already in the 2020 calendar year which has to be respected.

It just feels like the kind of game in which Aston Villa will be able to bounce back and perform much better than they did last Sunday. One goal may be enough to avoid a defeat, although I can't really back the visitors with any conviction either.

A 1-1 scoreline would not surprise me at all between these clubs, but both have had some issues defensively which may see a mistake provide a winner.


Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: The title race may be all but over with Liverpool 14 points clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League, but that doesn't mean Pep Guardiola is going to allow standards to slip. The 1-6 win at Aston Villa shows Manchester City can still be at their most devastating best and Guardiola has to be encouraged by the status of his squad with key players all returning ahead of the resumption of the Champions League.

Over the next four months the Cup competitions are going to be more important for Manchester City than the Premier League as the team are firmly in control of a return to the Champions League. They are good enough to still win games in this Division and we might not see wholesale changes made until we get in and around the Champions League fixtures and that should mean a strong Manchester City is selected for this game.

They are a team who create plenty of chances and Crystal Palace have been far from watertight since injuries have hit them hard at the back. Those injuries have shown little sign of clearing up of late and I think it will be difficult for Crystal Palace to contain Manchester City even though they have proven to be a difficult team to beat thanks to Roy Hodgson's tactical acumen giving them a solid shape to build from.

Expecting that to be enough at the Etihad Stadium seems like a long shot and Manchester City have been scoring a lot of goals in their 4 game winning run here. Defensively there are questions about Manchester City which can make it hard to trust them to cover an Asian Handicap like the one they are being asked to on Saturday, but Pep Guardiola and his players won't have forgotten the 2-3 upset suffered at the Etihad Stadium to this opponent last season.

I expect that to give the home team some motivation to keep pushing forward in this one and they should be able to produce another big win to follow the one secured at Villa Park.


Norwich City v Bournemouth Pick: This is effectively a 'must win' game for Norwich City as you would feel they are going to be cut off at the bottom of the Premier League without doing that. They are already eight points from safety and losing to 19th placed Bournemouth would be a blow from which I can't see Norwich City recovering.

Even a draw is not really good enough but the favourites look plenty short when you think Norwich City have not won any of their last nine Premier League games. In all honesty they were the worst team I've seen play at Old Trafford in a long time when losing 4-0 to Manchester United last weekend and it will take a mighty effort to do better this time around.

Teemu Pukki could be back which will be a help, but Norwich City look miserable at the back and you can't be confident in backing a team that concedes as many goals as they do.

On the other hand how could anyone outside of a Bournemouth die-hard fan believe they are going to get a result this weekend? The 0-3 home loss to Watford was not flattering to the visitors and Bournemouth look like a side with all of the hallmarks that are attached to those who end up being relegated.

Even Eddie Howe is beginning to question what he can do to turn things around and that is not a good look for Bournemouth who are trying to bring in new faces to freshen things up around the Vitality Stadium.

Again it makes this a very hard game to call with some much on the line for both clubs- a draw might suit Bournemouth a lot more than Norwich City, but I can see them getting at least a point here against a home team that has looked out of their depth in the Premier League all season.


Southampton v Wolves Pick: It is one thing losing at Old Trafford, but there were definite signs for Wolves that a long season could be taking its toll on the players. Nuno Espirito Santo has largely selected from a very small group of players who were involved in their 38th game this season already when taking to the field at Manchester United in an unwanted FA Cup Third Round Replay.

The defeat might not be too bad for the long-term prospects of the squad as Wolves have now secured what is essentially a three week break during which time they will play once. That will give the squad a chance to just get some energy back in the legs and a boost to take into the final three months of the season when the Europa League and Premier League fixtures resume the Thursday-Sunday/Monday schedule.

However that break is still a few days away and it means Wolves could be vulnerable in their remaining two Premier League games before entering that long patch without fixtures.

First up is a trip to rested Southampton who are also one of the hottest teams in the Premier League with 5 wins from their last 6 in all competitions. They have also won 4 of their last 6 at St Mary's and I do like the level being produced by Southampton which makes them a worthy favourite in this one.

Even with that form in mind and with Wolves having a tough game at Old Trafford during the week, it is not entirely easy backing Southampton to win with a lot of confidence. The team have been creating chances and scoring goals, but Wolves can pick up their level at any given time and I do think they are dangerous enough to be respected here.

I'd be disappointed if Southampton were to lose this game though and backing them on the Double Chance and coupling it with at least two goals being scored looks the play. There have been two or more goals shared out in all 3 of their Premier League meetings since Wolves returned to the top flight eighteen months ago and even the 2 clean sheets Southampton have had in back to back games here doesn't have me believing in what has been a vulnerable defence all season.

Southampton do have goals in the side though and can expose any tired legs they find so the pick highlighted looks the best one for me.


West Ham United v Everton Pick: This is an interesting game between two clubs who have employed new managers over the last few weeks as they bid to retain Premier League status. Both Everton and West Ham United were considered teams that could push towards the top six before a ball was kicked in the 2019/20 season, but only Everton look like they are close to reaching those ambitions.

Things have been much tougher for West Ham United as they have not been helped by a very long injury list throughout the season. It meant they gave Manuel Pellegrini a little more time to try and turn things around, but ultimately The Hammers remain too close to the bottom three for comfort and so turned to David Moyes.

A 4-0 win over Bournemouth in the first game played under Moyes will give the fans confidence he will be able to turn things around for them, but the injuries in the squad continue to hinder the chance of earning some consistency.

West Ham United have a poor home record against Everton in recent years and I do think the visitors are right to be favoured.

Everton have won 3 of their 5 games played under Carlo Ancelotti, but the amount of shots and chances being created can't be ignored either. They should have got more than the single goal scored in the victory over Brighton last weekend and Everton look like they will at least give it a go at the London Stadium having recently won 1-2 at Newcastle United.

It won't be an easy place to win as I expect West Ham United to be organised and looking to make things difficult throughout, but Everton should do enough to avoid defeat. Neither defence is the most secure and I think adding Everton on the Double Chance to a game featuring at least two goals shared out looks a good price here.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: The final Premier League game of Saturday afternoon comes from the North East as Newcastle United host Chelsea and bid to extend their winning run after the 4-1 win over Rochdale during the week. No doubt this is a much bigger test for the injury hit hosts who have been struggling for League form, but Newcastle United showed resiliency in somehow earning a 1-1 draw with Wolves last weekend.

They were able to ride their luck in that game as Newcastle United planned to sit deep and frustrate their hosts, but it could have been a different story with better finishing from Wolves. At St James' Park the onus is on Newcastle United to try and get forward to get the fans behind them and that may play into the hands of their visitors Chelsea who have been very good away from home throughout the 2019/20 season.

Chelsea have certainly made sure they have won the games they have been supposed to and this is a team who score and create plenty of chances. The 3-0 success over Burnley means 2020 has begun in exactly the fashion Frank Lampard would have wanted and last season Chelsea snapped what had been an awful recent history at Newcastle United.

That will give the players a bit more belief, but this is a young team that has been happy to take the game to whoever they have faced. Some of the bigger teams in England and Europe have been a bit too battle hardened for a young squad, but Chelsea's wins at Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal suggest they are getting things turned around.

Chelsea score plenty of away goals and Newcastle United have struggled to compete through the injuries they have been dealing with. They have lost their last 2 Premier League games here to Everton and Leicester City and Newcastle United have been someway second best in both of those home losses.

They will be encouraged by Chelsea's failure to win at Brighton, but it is still a big ask for Newcastle United and I think the West London club can earn what will be an important win away from Stamford Bridge. I do think backing Chelsea to win is the right play and adding it to a game that features less than five goals shared out is a good looking price here.


Burnley v Leicester City Pick: Most of the eyes of the neutrals will be on the second Premier League game to be played in the North West of England on Sunday, but this is an important fixture for Burnley and Leicester City who are looking for better consistency in the next few months.

Both are off disappointing defeats, but Burnley are struggling at the wrong end of the Premier League table while Leicester City are still very much on course for a return to the Champions League.

Burnley have really hit the wall of late with 4 losses in a row in the Premier League and largely being outplayed in those games. They have struggled in the final third at both ends of the pitch, and that has put a lot of pressure on the players as they have begun to slip back towards the bottom three.

Leicester City are off the back of a couple of poor results themselves with a home draw with Aston Villa in the League Cup Semi Final First Leg followed by the home defeat to Southampton in the Premier League. However I do think this is a team who are suited to playing away from home with the spaces much more easy to identify as teams have to come onto them.

It is no surprise that Leicester City have won 7 of their last 9 away from home in all competitions and during a time when they have failed to win a couple of games in front of their own fans as a big favourite.

I think it will work well for them this weekend when they visit to Turf Moor especially as Burnley have not looked at all watertight of late. Leicester City have won on 5 of their last 7 visits to Turf Moor including a win over them here last season and I think they can edge to the victory here with the price just about appealing enough to take.

Brendan Rodgers will be looking for a reaction from his players after the loss to Southampton and I think they are playing well enough away from home to expose the low confidence Burnley team they face on Super Sunday.


Liverpool v Manchester United Pick: These two clubs will always be the big two in England and this remains the fixture that most Manchester United fans will search for first.

Unfortunately it looks to be coming at a bad time for Manchester United with injuries taking away real options from the manager while they also had to play a FA Cup Third Round Replay during the week at the same time Liverpool were resting and preparing.

Marcus Rashford's status is going to be key- if he can play Manchester United do have some pace in the final third that could be effective, but the midfield looks short of quality and Liverpool are flying at the moment.

They might not be hammering teams in the manner Manchester City can do, but Liverpool are looking strong at the back with 5 clean sheets in a row and they will always score. 3 of their last 4 games have been won 1-0 and I can understand why Liverpool are such short favourites to win this fixture.

It is actually only a slightly shorter price than when Liverpool beat Manchester United here last season and I imagine there will be plenty behind the home team. I can't really blame the thinking considering where these two teams are at the moment, but I do think Manchester United will be able to play a part as long as Rashford is able to go like I believe he will be able to do.

Teams have created chances against Liverpool and it is a matter of having a bit more fortune which would have changed the narrative on the clean sheets being secured. Wolves had a goal controversially chalked off, Everton and Tottenham Hotspur had multiple glaring openings and Manchester United have played well against the big teams for the most part under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

Manchester United have certainly been able to score goals in the vast majority of those big games even when they have been seen off and I think they can do that here at Anfield. I would be very surprised if United can keep a clean sheet though and backing both teams to score is my selection.

Liverpool needed two late goals to secure the win over Manchester United last season and they have won 4 of their last 10 at Anfield against their rivals from down the M62. Both teams have hit the net in 4 of the last 6 overall, although the majority of those fixtures have been at Old Trafford. However it happened here last season and I think Manchester United can produce a big effort to at least be competitive against the runaway League leaders.

MY PICKS: Watford Double Chance & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton Double Chance & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton Double Chance & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester United Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

December 2019/20: 16-14, - 0.58 Units (60 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 23

I'm sure most of us have had a busy period of the year with the festive period meaning games were played thick and fast, while at the same time we all want to have some quality family time before heading back into the start of a New Year.

I had some things in place which made it impossible to put a couple of threads out over that time and so I had to just tweet out the kind of moves I was making in the Fantasy Football squad I have.

This week I am going with a transfer-free policy so I have two to use for the midweek set of games which will begin on Tuesday. The three transfers I have made since the Wild Card was used has seen me bring in Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Pablo Fornals and Roberto Firmino for Wesley, Christian Pulisic and Harry Kane respectively.

Those have freed up some funds, although both Calvert-Lewin and Fornals have come off the boil with the latter looking like he might not be involved in David Moyes' starting plans at West Ham United. This week could be different with some additional names showing up as injury concerns, but the main reason I brought in Fornals was for the upcoming DGW The Hammers are going to be playing.

The same thought process was in place when bringing in Firmino for the injured Harry Kane, although I do have room for one more Liverpool player that I am almost certainly going to be using during the week.

My GameWeek 23 Team

Paulo Gazzaniga- he is not long for my squad as Tottenham Hotspur continue to stumble through games without clean sheets.

Serge Aurier- squad problems means I have to go with two Spurs players at the back this weekend despite fancying Watford to pull off a potential upset. At least Serge Aurier has the potential for attacking returns.

John Lundstram- Sheffield United have proved to be a stubborn away side and visit an Arsenal team without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Caglar Soyuncu- the hot streak is over for Leicester City, but I think they have a real chance of earning a clean sheet at Burnley.

Sadio Mane- hate picking players facing Manchester United, but have no option here.

Kevin De Bruyne (C)- a home game with Crystal Palace should give Manchester City a chance to add another big win to the board.

Jack Grealish- not an easy away game at Brighton, but if Aston Villa are going to have success I imagine Jack Grealish will be at the heart of it.

James Ward-Prowse- at the heart of any set pieces and Southampton facing a Wolves team that looked a little heavy legged on Wednesday.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin- Everton have been firing lots of shots and creating plenty of chances under Carlo Ancelotti. No reason that doesn't continue at West Ham United.

Marcus Rashford- a major doubt, which is a real body blow for Manchester United. Still could be passed fit so keeping him in the starting line up knowing a substitute will come in.

Roberto Firmino- had to sign him up earlier than planned with the Harry Kane injury, and again hate to start someone facing Manchester United.

Bench- Michael McGovern, Pablo Fornals (happy to have him first off the bench if Rashford can't go), Federico Fernandez (clean sheet unlikely against Chelsea this weekend), Harry Maguire (clean sheet unlikely at Anfield).