Boxing Picks 2025- David Benavidez vs David Morrell (Saturday 1st February)

The quiet start to the 2025 season is firmly coming to an end in the first weekend of February when David Benavidez and David Morrell forget about waiting for a big shot at Canelo Alvarez and instead turn their attention to one another.

Make no mistake, this is a huge fight at Light Heavyweight, rather than Super Middleweight, and the winner is almost certainly going to be next in line for a shot at the winner of the Artur Beterbiev-Dmitry Bivol rematch coming up in three weeks time.

Of course a trilogy between the top two Light Heavyweights cannot be ruled out if it is revenge and not repeat on Saturday 22nd February, but the winner on Saturday is still likely going to receive big interest from the Saudi authorities and that comes with some big rewards over the next twelve months.

It is the big fight of the weekend and the main event is well backed up by a solid undercard.

Prior to this event, Adam Azim is back in action in London as he looks to take the next step in his own development in an open Division and one where a domestic rivalry with Dalton Smith continues to build.

You could not really ask for a better way to get February kicked off and there are some big fights to come over the next month, which in turn could set up even bigger nights over the remainder of 2025.

Of course those heading out to the ring on Saturday will be looking to impress promoters/local authorities with deep pockets and it should be a really good night for fans.

Adam Azim vs Sergey Lipinets

There are three leading names in British Boxing when it comes to the Light-Welterweight Division and that does not include the soon to return Josh Taylor.

Jack Catterall has had world level experience and will be out in a couple of weeks in a bout against Arnold Barboza Jr in what the WBO have described as an eliminator for the WBO World Title held by Teofimo Lopez.

Last week Dalton Smith was crushing an overmatched opponent and he is pushing to be called as the next challenger for the WBC World Title, which is going to be on the line when Alberto Puello defends against Sandor Martin in early March.

His promoters would have preferred to have seen Dalton Smith in the ring with Adam Azim, but the young, unbeaten fighter is on his own path and the hope is that both will meet with a lot more on the line at some point over the next twelve months.

That means continuing to win boxing fights and Azim is headlining in London on Saturday against Sergey Lipinets, a veteran who is a former World Champion, but who at 35 years old is past his best.

Almost four years have passed since Lipinets was Stopped in the Sixth Round by Jaron Ennis and he has had just three fights in that time- he is 2-1 in those three fights, but Sergey Lipinets was rocked by Robbie Davies Jr in May 2024 and he has not had a competitive fight since rallying to win that one on the cards.

Now he has to face a fresh, hungry young fighter and it might be tough for the Kazakh to actually stand up to the speed and deceptive power carried by Adam Azim.

The Stoppages have taken a bit longer as Adam Azim has stepped up his level of competition, but this might be the right opponent at the right time in his bid to make a statement.

Any Stoppage of Sergey Lipinets would make headlines, but there is a feeling that the 35 year old is not the same force he once was and the inactivity is a real concern.

It will be important for Adam Azim to not rush his work to try and out-do Dalton Smith and there has to be a respect for what Lipinets has achieved in his career.

However, the feeling is that this is a good time to be facing an inactive former Champion who was hurt in his last fight and Adam Azim may just be able to roll through the gears and get this done perhaps even earlier than Jaron Ennis managed back in 2021.

David Benavidez vs David Morrell

Canelo Alvarez has long held all of the cards in the Super Middleweight Division and he refused to entertain the idea of fighting either of these two fighers.

Instead of waiting for the Mexican to make up his mind and throw them a bone, David Benavidez and David Morrell have refused to allow their own career to stall and a decision was made to move up into the Light Heavyweight Division.

Options within the Division were pretty limited considering Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol were heading into a rematch with all of the World Titles on the line so credit has to be given to both Davids.

They have picked up Interim World Titles and the winner is likely going to be a frontrunner to become the next big Challenger in the Light Heavyweight Division.

Both are unbeaten, although David Benavidez has the greater experience in a professional ring and his resume looks much stronger than David Morrell's.

However, there has long been a big expectation on the shoulders of David Morrell, although he was not very convincing in his debut in the 175 pound Division.

It is a top main event on Saturday and it is very difficult to imagine this developing into anything other than a rough, tough, bruising encounter and one that will take something away from both winner and loser.

David Benavidez has looked the more confident and his experience might be key, but David Morrell has plenty of power and it would be a surprise if this is a bout that needs the final bell.

Out of the two unbeaten Champions, David Morrell has perhaps shown that his power is a telling factor early, but he may not carry it as much as David Benavidez and that could be the key to the outcome of this big main event.

The Mexican Monster might just wear down David Morrell, who can recover, especially in this era where the zero is no longer considered as important thanks to the money being pumped into the sport by the Saudi Arabian promoters.

I expect plenty of heavy leather to be thrown and David Morrell may not be able to keep David Benavidez from getting on top over the Twelve Rounds scheduled, which may end up leading to a statement victory for the 28 year old. He may take a little bit of time to warm up against the southpaw, but Benavidez can get through the early tough moments and begin to push through the gears and break down the will of David Morrell.

The undercard is unsurprisingly a good one for the first big American night of Boxing and the rematch between Stephen Fulton and Brandon Figueroa should see the two pick up from where they left off in November 2021.

Both have moved up from the Super Bantamweight Division where the initial bout between these Boxers was fought out, and it is Brandon Figueroa who holds the WBC World Title.

Inactivity is an issue for both, but you do have to wonder if Naoya Inoue may have taken something away from Stephen Fulton and not only his unbeaten record and World Title in the Division below.

He was dropped in his first fight in this Division, although was not that badly hurt, and Brandon Figueroa is capable of putting the big shots together and will believe he is the stronger fighter at this weight.

Stephen Fulton showed his determination in winning last time out, despite being dropped, but it will be tough to stand up to the pressure of Brandon Figueroa- he won a tight one when these two met over three years ago, but this time the Champion can underline his status by finding the shots to close the show before needing to go to the cards.

After losing last time out and having some of the momentum slowed down on a Riyadh Season card, Isaac Cruz is back and the expectation is that he will get back to doing what he does best.

There are still questions about him moving up the weights to chase the big fights, but Isaac Cruz is a focused fighter and that is underlined by the fact that he refused to discuss a fight with Ryan Garcia for May.

Instead Cruz is looking to get the better of Angel Fierro and the 26 year old may struggle to deal with his compatriot's experience at a much higher level.

Angel Fierro has been beaten twice in the lower weights and it feels like the Cruz team have selected him as someone who will stand in front of their fighter and give him a very good chance of looking strong again.

Losing to Jose Valenzuela was very disappointing, but this feels a step back in level and Isaac Cruz can get back to winning ways in a big way.

One of the big upsets of 2020, just before Covid shut down the world, saw Jeison Rosario crush Julian Williams to become a Unified World Champion in the Light Middleweight Division.

Nine months later he was beaten into submission by Jermell Charlo having been Knocked Down in two of the first Seven Rounds before the Eighth Round Stoppage and that has sparked a downward trend for the Dominican.

Four wins and two losses, with one draw, have followed that defeat to Charlo and Jeison Rosario has been Stopped in all of his career defeats.

Next up is Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr who is still rebuilding after a defeat to Erickson Lubin.

Early successes had Ramos Jr looking to move into elite company in the Light Middleweight Division and his power has carried in fights.

Someone like Rosario is not going to be hard to find and that could give Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr the opportunities to match Brian Mendoza and finish this fight in the first half of the scheduled Ten Rounds.

It is telling that Jeison Rosario has been dropped multiple times and early in some of the recent contests and standing in front of Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr can only lead to bad things.

On Friday night, Matchroom do have a card being headlined by a couple of young fighters that they are hoping to develop.

Both Junaid Boston and George Liddard may soon be facing one another to separate their paths, but for now they are in individual fights and looking to build momentum.

They face Bilwal Fawaz and Derrick Osaze in the next step of their careers and both will have to be respected with the experience they have.

However, Boston and Liddard are destined for bigger things and they may both make statements with Stoppages without hearing the bell for the start of the Sixth Round.

MY PICKS: Adam Azim to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

David Benavidez to Win by KO/TKO @ 4.33 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Brandon Figueroa to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Isaac Cruz to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Junaid Boston to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

George Liddard to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 3-4, + 0.53 Units (9 Units Staked, + 5.89% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks- Championship Games 2025 (Sunday 26th January)

We are down to the final three games of the 2024 NFL season and the Championship Games are going to set the Super Bowl match up for two weeks time.

It has been a fun season and you would say that at least one of the teams involved are a surprise name, but in the main we are set for two big games and the Super Bowl should be a lot of fun regardless of the match up that will be set.

The season is going to be one that finishes with a winning record, but a strong end is the target and then to get ready to go again in eight months time.

My only hope is that there is less refereeing controversy this week compared with the Divisional Round.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Having a rookie Quarter Back along with a first year Head Coach and then being blown out in Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suggested the Washington Commanders (14-5) would have to go through something of a transitional season in the tough NFC East.

Instead, Jayden Daniels has surpassed all expectations and Head Coach Dan Quinn has set a standard, which the Commanders players having been very willing to follow.

Getting into the Playoffs is a big achievement for Washington, but even the most optimistic of fans could not have expected the Commanders to win consecutive road games for the first time in the post-season. Upsets over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions, the Number 1 Seed, has given Washington an opportunity to play the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season when they won the Super Bowl.

A familiar opponent will be in front of the Commanders as they play the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) for the third time in the 2024 season.

The two teams split the regular season meetings, but the Eagles will feel pretty comfortable in the match up, even if Jayden Daniels is playing at a very high level.

Of course there has to be some confidence in the Washington ranks having beaten the Eagles in the most recent meeting, but that was also a game in which Philadelphia Quarter Back Jalen Hurts was out with a concussion very early on. And even then, it took a late drive from the Commanders to earn the victory, while the game here at Lincoln Financial Field was dominated by the home team.

The scoreboard might not say that, but Washington had a late score to keep that defeat respectable and they will be well aware of the challenge coming up as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts missed some time after the concussion suffered in December, but he took another heavy hit in the Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams last week. There was clearly some impact on his movement in the second half and Hurts is likely going to operate with a knee brace in the NFC Championship Game, although the reports during the week is that the Quarter Back is going to be in better shape than he ended the last game.

Even if Hurts is not as mobile as usual, the Philadelphia Offensive Line is going to be the dominant force in this game and they will feel they can rip open some big running lanes for Saquon Barkley. Last week the Running Back was key to the successes the Eagles had and he should have another big game when facing this Washington Defensive Line struggling to make consistent stops.

It should make life that much more comfortable for Jalen Hurts and the conditions should be easier in which to throw compared with the Divisional Round. The cold can make things tough for Receivers, but this Eagles team have plenty of talented playmakers that will likely be in one on one coverage at times if the Offensive Line pummels Washington up front.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders may feel they can run the ball with some success in this one too, although there has been a difficult injury on the Offensive Line that will hurt the underdog. The mobile Quarter Back helps, but Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler will be hoping that the Offensive Line will still be able to give them some opportunities against this tough Eagles Defensive Line.

Without a real running threat, the Eagles could really get after Jayden Daniels and it is very important for Washington to keep this one close on the scoreboard to avoid having to throw over and over again. If they are in third and long or obviously chasing points, Philadelphia's pass rush is going to have a big impact in this game, while the Eagles Secondary have been playing at a high standard all season.

Throwing against them will be tougher for Jayden Daniels than it was against an injury hit Lions team and the Philadelphia Eagles are deserving favourites.

They look like the team that will have the better Offensive balance and the Eagles can use home advantage to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.

Running the ball and controlling the clock can be backed up by a very good Defensive unit and it feels like time is going to hit midnight for Jayden Daniels and the upstart Washington Commanders in this NFC Championship Game.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In recent years, the Buffalo Bills (15-4) have gotten the better of the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in the regular season, but beating them when it really matters has been beyond their reach.

In 2024, the Bills have secured another regular season win over Kansas City, but the AFC Championship Game sees the two come together in the Playoff once again. Three of the last four Buffalo Playoff runs have been ended by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium after barely holding off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs did not have it much easier against the Houston Texans, but they have an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of the AFC Championship Game and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills had a much tougher Divisional Round win.

On one hand they will feel battle hardened, but the other is the physical toll a game against the powerful Ravens will have had on the players and the Buffalo Bills still have so much to prove as they look to make the Super Bowl for the first time since January 1994 when they were beaten for the fourth time in a row as the AFC representative.

Controversial decisions overshadowed Kansas City's win over Houston last week with some bogus flags being thrown to keep the Offensive unit on the field, but they will need more from Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs are going to win a third Super Bowl in a row. The zebras are hopefully not going to be over-involved in this AFC Championship Game after being criticised for some of the flags thrown last week, with conspiracy theorists offering their belief that the NFL would like to see the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if it means Taylor Swift will be attending.

Regardless of some of the poor calls, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are only concentrating on imposing themselves on this Championship Game. No one can take away from the talent and success Mahomes has had, especially as the Kansas City Chiefs have offered little support on the ground.

Andy Reid is very happy moving away from seeing run plays called and that has had to be the position for the Kansas City Chiefs with the Offensive Line struggling. They are not expected to have a lot more joy rushing the ball against this Buffalo Defensive Line and that will mean all of the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes to make plays with his arm and legs.

He is capable of doing that, but becoming one-dimensional may give the Buffalo Bills to make some big plays.

Patrick Mahomes does not have the consistent Receiving option that he would like, but Travis Kelce is playing in Playoff mode and the Quarter Back should be able to make some plays down the field. However, it has not been easy to throw against this Buffalo Secondary and the Bills should believe they can contain the home team for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.

For everything he has achieved in the NFL, Josh Allen knows that he will be judged by successes in the Playoff and he is going to be the key player for Buffalo. Last week Allen got the better of Lamar Jackson by playing a clean game and more of that will be needed against this Kansas City Defensive unit that deserves a lot of credit for the team building the record that they have.

It may be Josh Allen's legs that make the first impact on this game with the Kansas City Defensive Line just having one or two issues stopping the run in recent games. With James Cook behind him, Buffalo can use the RPO to just move into third and manageable positions on the field, which is key for a team that does not have a stand out Receiver, but have a number of players ready to make the big catch when needed.

Playing in front of the chains negates what has been a disruptive Kansas City pass rush with Josh Allen not having to hold onto the ball for too long and the Buffalo Bills may find a balance in their play-calling that gives them the edge.

In recent years we have seen Buffalo falter in the big moments and the Kansas City Chiefs are two time defending Super Bowl Champions so it is not easy to back against the Chiefs here.

However, the Buffalo Bills may have come through their most difficult challenge after winning the turnover battle against the powerful Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen may finally take this franchise back into the Super Bowl.

Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have found a way to win games when not being at their best all season, but they will need their best to beat Buffalo. The struggles to run the ball may just mean Buffalo can prepare a little more for what is to come from the home team and the Secondary have played well enough to stall drives.

With Josh Allen's dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, the Buffalo Bills may just come through as the narrow underdog in the AFC Championship Game.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.90 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2025- Men's Final (Sunday 26th January)

Madison Keys is a Grand Slam Champion.

If you had told me that a decade ago, it would not have caused much surprise, but it really had felt like the American had missed her best chances to win a Major.

Beating the top two players on the Tour in back to back matches makes the victory all the sweeter, and Madison Keys can go into the rest of the 2025 season filled with confidence.

On Sunday another player who has gotten close to winning a Major is trying to win a maiden title at this level when Alexander Zverev looks to get the better of Jannik Sinner.

It is a good looking Final and a tough one to call- the head to head suggests it will be very close, while there is one or two doubts about a hip injury that Sinner is carrying after his Semi Final win over Ben Shelton.

Any lingering issue would make Alexander Zverev a big price to win this match outright, but it would be a surprise if this one is not a battle and so my last selection from the 2025 Australian Open moves towards an angle which can be read below.

Jannik Sinner-Alexander Zverev over 39.5 games: Two injuries were the tale of the day when the Semi Final matches were played on Friday, but Jannik Sinner was able to overcome his hip issue to see off Ben Shelton in the Night Session.

All eyes will be on the World Number 1 and defending Champion as he looks to recover and prepare for the Australian Open Final when the 2025 tournament comes to a close on Sunday.

Alexander Zverev is the opponent after he was the beneficiary of a Novak Djokovic injury that forced the ten time former Champion to withdraw from the Semi Final at the end of the first set. The fans in attendance voiced their extreme disappointment with boos as Djokovic left the court, which was poor from those in the stands to say the least, and Alexander Zverev was quick to point that out.

It has felt that Zverev has perhaps missed his opportunity to win a Grand Slam in previous attempts, but this may be one more big chance for him to really spark his career. Take nothing away from the consistency that has taken the German into World Number 2, but Alexander Zverev could put a few Grand Slams in the trophy cabinet if he is able to win the first one.

No matter what, Alexander Zverev is going to enter this match in healthier shape than Jannik Sinner who is clearly carrying a couple of knocks. The hip issue could become a very tough one to overcome if Jannik Sinner is not able to recover over the forty-eight hours between Semi Final and Final and the head to head with Alexander Zverev suggests it would be a close match even if both were healthy as they could be ahead of this Final.

Both players have been producing at a very high level in this tournament and the serve has been a key shot for Sinner and Zverev.

With that in mind, it would be tough to serve with any kind of hip issue that is painful on landing and that may just give Alexander Zverev, the significant underdog, the edge.

The World Number 2 has the edge in terms of former matches with Alexander Zverev holding a 4-2 lead over Jannik Sinner on all surfaces and that becomes 3-1 when only focusing on hard court matches. Alexander Zverev has beaten Sinner twice at the US Open, including a five set win at the 2023 tournament, but it was the Italian who won their most recent meeting in Cincinnati in a match that was had three competitive sets played out.

It was a close match and it would not have taken much to swing things back in favour of Alexander Zverev, but it is an important mental step for Jannik Sinner to have taken to win that Semi Final in a big tournament.

He has been the superior server of the two in Melbourne over the last two weeks and Jannik Sinner has had the slight edge when it comes to the return.

This means he is rightly set as favourite, although the issue at the end of the Semi Final is one that will cause some doubt and Alexander Zverev may feel the longer he has the top Seed out on the court, the more the match pendulum will swing in his favour.

Assuming both are ready to go on Sunday evening in Melbourne, serving could be key and this could be another Australian Open Final that goes long.

Five of the last eight Men's Finals have needed all five sets to determine a winner and the last Grand Slam match between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner did the same at the US Open in 2023. It would not be a surprise if sets go deep and four might be all that is needed to ensure the total games line is passed.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner-Alexander Zverev Over 39.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-13, + 17.40 Units (77 Units Staked, + 22.60% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson (Saturday 25th January)

There was a Friday morning card from Japan featuring the Monster and so the main thread for the week can be read here.

In this one, the focus is on the back to back cards Matchroom have scheduled from the United Kingdom and United States with twelve hours of Boxing for fans to enjoy.

The fighters the promotion are representing are hoping to get through tough challenges and then move onto World Title fights in the months ahead.

A decent undercard has been put together with other fighters looking to move into headlining events of their own and so it is an important night before the first Super Fight of 2025 next weekend.

Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson

Injury meant a big step backwards for Steven Nelson, and he has perhaps not been given the opportunities that he would have wanted as an unbeaten fighter.

He works with Terence Crawford and Bomac and Steven Nelson will be well prepared for a fight that could open the door for World Titles and big financial rewards in the weeks and months ahead.

A serious injury kept him out of the ring for a long time, but the Nelson return has been very slow with a single fight in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and against opponents nothing like the one he is facing in this bout in January.

Diego Pacheco has been told to 'wait his turn' by Bomac, but the 23 year old is impatient and the development of the young fighter has been very good. He has had those learning fights and those tough moments, and Diego Pacheco is looking to win this contest and then perhaps target the World Titles.

The younger of the two fighters is already pretty highly Ranked with three of the governing bodies and so Diego Pacheco could be in line for a World Title shot at some point over the next twelve months.

All of that will go to waste if he was to lose on Saturday and that is the pressure of this fight.

You know Steven Nelson will be well prepared in the gym and he will have gotten some solid sparring, while the tactics of his trainer are going to be spot on.

However, there is no moving away from the fact that Steven Nelson has been relatively inactive and all of the physical advantages are with the younger fighter. At 36 years old, Nelson will be well aware that sparring is not the same as actually fighting and so it has to be accepted that he is taking a considerable step up in terms of level of opponent compared with those he has faced in the past.

The progress of Diego Pacheco has been put together very well by his team and promoter and that activity gives him another advantage.

It may be a fight that is a slow burner, but Pacheco should build the pressure over the course of this Twelve Round fight and that may eventually see him just wear down Steven Nelson.

You have to give all of the respect to Nelson and his training team and you know he will be well prepared, but Diego Pacheco feels like a whole new level of experience for the veteran and the younger man can make a statement before calling out some of the Champions and bigger names in and around the Super Middleweight Division.

Andy Cruz is on the undercard and expected to continue on his fast track towards a World Title bid- he should be able to secure the victory, but finding a good angle to get behind him is very difficult.

A late Stoppage or a wide Points victory are the likely outcomes, but the layers are very much expecting the same.

There are also big expectations on the shoulders of 23 year old Ernesto Mercado who has an unbeaten record and found a Stoppage in fifteen in his sixteen victories.

A lot of those victories have been very early, but veteran Jose Pedraza could just push him a little longer, which can only be good for Mercado's development.

Last year Jose Pedraza was Stopped in the Sixth Round by Keyshawn Davis, who will be fighting for a World Title next month, but that is only his second defeat inside the distance. Arnold Barboza Jr needed the cards to get the better of Pedraza in 2023, while Vasyl Lomachenko is another who could not force this opponent to quit.

The layers are expecting another early night for Ernesto Mercado, but the feeling is that he will do well to end this quicker than Keyshawn Davis did and a small interest on the younger, progressive fighter to secure a Stoppage in the second half of this contest is warranted.

Before all of the action gets going in Las Vegas, Matchroom are putting on a card in Nottingham headlined by Dalton Smith who is expecting to make a significant move in his career in 2025.

Hopes of a domestic showdown with Adam Azim continue to be dashed with reports suggesting that was a fight being negotiated for the undercard of the upcoming Chris Eubank Jr-Conor Benn bout at the end of April, but Dalton Smith's career continues to develop in a positive trajectory.

Winning here could place Dalton Smith in the mandatory shot for the WBC World Title in the Light-Welterweight Division and the British fighter is a big favourite.

Walid Ouizza is the opponent for this vacant European Title that was once held by Adam Azim and Dalton Smith should have far too much for the Frenchman.

Early defeats in his career have been overcome, but this is another step upwards for Walid Ouizza and the power of Dalton Smith is expected to be a considerable factor in the outcome of this Title Fight.

Winning European Title fights are rarely easy, but Dalton Smith is chasing World honours and he is likely going to have the firepower to get on top relatively early on in this one.

Wearing down Walid Ouizza, Dalton Smith might be set for another mid-fight finish as he has secured in his last two wins and he can then target a really big fight, potentially at Hillsborough, in the summer.

MY PICKS: Diego Pacheco to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Ernesto Mercado to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Dalton Smith to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 3-1, + 3.53 Units (6 Units Staked, + 58.83% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 25th January)

Injuries might have been the headlines on Day 13 of the Australian Open, although one of the Semi Final matches was completed and the other ended prematurely.

The fans were extremely upset with Novak Djokovic's decision to pull out of his Semi Final against Alexander Zverev moments after losing the first set tie-breaker, but booing him off the court is not really acceptable behaviour.

Maybe I am getting older, but a dominant, long time Champion and an all time great surely deserves more respect than he was afforded in Melbourne, while it truly feels like something that would not have happened a decade ago.

These days being a troll seems like a big career move for so many, but giving that kind of energy the oxygen it does not deserve has perhaps filtered into society in general. Instead of empathy and understanding, people feel like they own some of the great entertainers of our day and so 'deserve' to be given 'value for money'.

Don't misunderstand the situation, of course you're going to be disappointed if you had paid money to sit on the Rod Laver Arena and the match ended in that manner.

But it is not the first time this has happened and in previous years you would see the injured player given a warm applause rather than the disdain that seems to be reserved for Novak Djokovic, despite his obvious talents and impressive achievements.

Later in the evening, Jannik Sinner moved through to the Final for a second year in a row as he looks to defend the title won last year, but the World Number 1 definitely picked up an injury scare in the third set against Ben Shelton. Fortunately for the Italian, Ben Shelton could not avoid the Unforced Errors that just prevented him pushing the top Seed a little more having served for the first set and come up short.

It should be a good Men's Final on Sunday to round out the Australian Open, but before that we have a big hitting, potentially fun Women's Final to look forward to.

The fan in me hopes for a tight, competitive Final between Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka, although the head is suggesting something a little different.

You can see the train of thought below where the Pick for the Women's Final has been made with just two matches left at the Australian Open in 2025 and with a positive start to the season secured.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: There was a time when Aryna Sabalenka was seen as a player that would struggle to get over the line when it came to the absolute business end of Grand Slam tournaments.

A similar feeling had been around Madison Keys, but the difference between the two players is that Aryna Sabalenka kept getting into those Semi Final spots in the Grand Slams. This gave her the experience to eventually deal with her nerves and find a way through to the Final and then go on and win two Australian Open titles and one US Open.

The World Number 1 is still only 26 years old and the two time defending Australian Open Champion is the favourite to complete a hat-trick of titles here. Over the next twelve months, Aryna Sabalenka is going to be amongst the favourites to win every Grand Slam that she competes in and she certainly looks the clear best player in the world on the hard courts.

When Madison Keys reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2015 just a couple of weeks before she was turning 20 years old, American tennis fans may have felt the next big star of the sport was beginning to shine through.

However, the career has perhaps not panned out as Madison Keys or her supporters would have expected.

She has reached four further Semi Finals at Grand Slams and also played in the US Open Final in 2017, but there has been a lot of disappointing performances in the Majors around those strong runs. And after losing in the Semi Final here in Melbourne in 2022 and at the same stage in New York City in 2023, Madison Keys really did feel her hopes of winning a Grand Slam were over.

The loss at the US Open really hurt- Madison Keys took the first set 6-0 against Aryna Sabalenka that year, but was beaten 7-6, 7-6 in the next two sets and the World Number 14 was clearly devastated in the press conference.

An upset win over Iga Swiatek has given Madison Keys another chance to finally take home a Major, but she is still going to have to find another level to beat the peaking Aryna Sabalenka.

Madison Keys is going to have to find her best serving to try and keep Aryna Sabalenka under pressure, especially as her own return is going to be tested by the World Number 1. Making a fast start is important just to settle some nerves, but even in that US Open Semi Final that Madison Keys came so close to winning, it was a match that Aryna Sabalenka deserved to win even after dropping the first set without winning a game.

A much more routine win was produced by the Belarusian when these two players met in Beijing on the hard courts at the back end of last year and Aryna Sabalenka is producing at a higher level in this tournament. You have to believe the top Seed is very comfortable on the Rod Laver Arena these days and Aryna Sabalenka will know all about the occasion, which are factors that only strengthen her edge.

Once again, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has the edge on protecting the second serve as well as on the returning numbers and the two time defending Champion should have the qualities to break down Madison Keys in a competitive, but solid enough victory for the World Number 1.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-12, + 19.40 Units (75 Units Staked, + 25.87% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim (Friday 24th January)

Finishing up with a profit in 2024 is obviously a positive, but it is important to make a strong start to the 2025 Boxing year and that is because of the dip suffered in 2023 following a solid 2022.

It is key to put the winning years together to push forward, but January is proving to be a relatively quiet month for fans of the sport.

All of that changes very quickly when the calendar ticks over to February, while we have had some early news about the new Ring Magazine led cards that will be considered separate to the Riyadh Season events.

That has to be made clear because Ring Magazine is obviously now owned by Turki Alalshikh, who continues to be the face of the Saudi authorities despite his own promotional events being put together. The first is the big card in the United States featuring both Devin Haney and Ryan Garcia as they prepare to face off in Saudi Arabia in a rematch later in the year.

Reports continue to suggest we are getting closer to hearing about Terence Crawford's bid to dethrone Canelo Alvarez in the Super Middleweight Division, although both could be out in tune up events in May before a September showdown.

A fight that does not deserve the same billing as some of those mentioned will headline in London, assuming all the minor details are now finally signed off- Chris Eubank Jr vs Conor Benn will still bring a huge amount of financial reward for the two fighters with Tottenham Hotspur Stadium looking to be the venue for that one. It might not be an elite fight, but the build up is going to be spiteful and that is yet another fight that is expected to be a two fight deal, much like the Haney vs Garcia rematch is set to be.

The opening weekend of February is going to be headlined by David Benavidez vs David Morrell, two fighters who feel they have had to move into the Light Heavyweight Division because of Canelo's refusal to face them at Super Middleweight.

That will be frustrating, but the winner of this one is going to become a mandatory for one of the World Titles that will be held by the winner of the Undisputed Light Heavyweight title fight later in February when Dmitry Bivol takes a second shot at Artur Beterbiev.

It is a bout that could be put on a big card, with big rewards for the winner.

Before that, we have a weekend of decent action across a couple of days.

It is always an honour to be able to watch Naoya Inoue, even if original opponent Sam Goodman has withdrawn from the contest for a second time. The show must go on though and Inoue is another fighter who could be offered with financial rewards to fight in Riyadh with a number of decent options available to him.

First things first and that is dealing with this replacement and matching the kind of impressive victory that Jai Opetaia had earlier this month.

The Cruiserweight World Champion and Justis Huni both secured big wins Down Under and they have helped open the 2025 season with two winners from the selections made.

A new thread will be used for the two Matchroom cards that are taking place on Saturday, but this one will be focusing on the top Super Bantamweight in the world and the remainder of the card being run in Japan.

Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim

There is no doubting that Naoya Inoue has become much more active as he has moved through the weight classes and it was only an injury to Sam Goodman that prevented him from fighting three times in 2024.

He is not exactly taking on weak opposition either, but this replacement looks like being one of the 'easier' fights Naoya Inoue has had in recent years.

Ultimately it is not his fault with Goodman pulling out of the fight for a second time and Naoya Inoue does not want to see his career lose the momentum he has built over the last three years. By getting this mandatory out of the way, Naoya Inoue can look for bigger challenges in the months ahead, whether that means moving up another weight class or having someone step up to prepare to face him.

With the Saudi riches knocking on his door, Naoya Inoue could be back out pretty quickly as long as he does what is expected in this fight.

Ye Joon Kim had been on standby to ensure the event would go ahead even if Sam Goodman was to not able to go and that is credit to the local promoters. The 32 year old South Korean deserves his praise too, but there is no doubt that this is a massive step up in class for Ye Joon Kim and it would perhaps be surprising if this is competitive, never mind if the upset can actually be achieved.

One punch can change things in Boxing, as Jaime Munguia will point out, but Ye Joon Kim is fighting someone who has shown he can come through adversity against much higher calibre of opponents.

In all honesty this feels like a fight that will go as long as Naoya Inoue wants- the feeling is that the Champion will know he cannot afford to pick up any cuts and bruises that prevents him from being back out in the ring pretty quickly. This should see him motivated and the 'Monster' may be in seek and destroy mode, which may end up producing a big Stoppage at some point during the first third of this contest.

There is always a decent undercard put together on the Naoya Inoue shows in Japan and the chief support features Jin Sasaki who is continuing his rebuild.

Seven wins and a Majority Draw has just reminded fans of the talents of Sasaki after the late Stoppage at the hands of the still unbeaten Andy Hiraoka.

He had to move up in Division having missed weight ahead of that defeat to Hiraoka and Jin Sasaki has looked pretty good in the Welterweight ranks.

With the likes of Terence Crawford, Errol Spence Jr moved on and Jaron Ennis unlikely to be long for the Division, Jin Sasaki is one of a number of fighters that will be looking to fill the void.

Veteran Shoki Sakai has fourteen defeats on the record, but has yet to be Stopped.

That experience could keep him out of harms way, but Jin Sasaki will keep the pressure on and he may make a real statement by forcing the Stoppage against Shoki Sakai in the second half of this contest.

MY PICKS: Naoya Inoue to Win Between 1-4 @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jin Sasaki to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2025 (Friday 24th January)

The Women's Final has been set after Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys were able to win Semi Final matches played on Day 12 at the Australian Open.

Fans of big hitting tennis are going to enjoy the occasion, although some would have been hoping to see the top two players in the World Rankings competing for the first Grand Slam of the season.

There is still a chance of that happening in the Men's Final, although that would not at least an upset in the first Semi Final scheduled on Day 13 when Novak Djokovic takes on the Number 2 Seed Alexander Zverev.

Out of the two Semi Final matches, the first does look like the one that the fans will enjoy most, although Ben Shelton will want to give the defending Champion something to think about in the Night Session.

Novak Djokovic-Alexander Zverev over 40.5 games: Both of these players showed tremendous grit and determination to win Quarter Final matches where the losing opponent will have been left with a lot of regret.

That is arguably more for Tommy Paul against Alexander Zverev having served to win both of the first two sets, but being broken and eventually downed in four sets by the World Number 2.

For Carlos Alcaraz the Quarter Final loss to Novak Djokovic will have just given the young Spaniard another learning moment as he allowed arguably the greatest player of all time get in his head. Dropping the first set, Novak Djokovic looked like he was carrying a major injury that was limiting his movement, but Carlos Alcaraz played a really poor match and ultimately will feel he allowed the former World Number 1 off the hook.

Novak Djokovic will not care and instead is feeling very grateful for an extra day of rest between his Quarter Final win and this big Semi Final. This is going to be used to make sure he is ready to compete as healthy as he can be and Novak Djokovic might hold a slight mental edge over Alexander Zverev having won the biggest matches they have played against one another at Grand Slam events.

However, it has been some time since Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev last faced off and the latter is most definitely at the peak of his powers.

Six of the last eight Grand Slams played by Alexander Zverev have seen the player reach the Quarter Final, and this is the fourth time he has played in the Semi Final. Getting over the line and reaching a Grand Slam Final has been tougher with just one appearance on the final Sunday in that run of form and winning a Major is the only ambition left for Alexander Zverev.

There is room for improvement in the serving numbers if Alexander Zverev is going to upset Novak Djokovic, and he is facing a great returner who will keep the pressure on him. A high percentage of first serves is key, while Zverev is certainly capable of getting enough returns back in play to hurt Novak Djokovic too.

Of course Novak Djokovic is going to feel pretty comfortable in the match up, as long as he is not suffering lingering problems from the issue that was affecting him in the Quarter Final. Both previous Grand Slam matches between these players on the hard courts have been pretty competitive, but Novak Djokovic has played the big points better than Alexander Zverev so you do have to give him the edge overall.

However, it is foolish to ignore the improvements made by the World Number 2 and the fact that Novak Djokovic is older and has only reached one Grand Slam Final since the US Open in 2023. It may mean another long, competitive match is played between the two players in this Semi Final and they may produce enough positive serving to produce the games to surpass this total set.

Jannik Sinner-Ben Shelton over 32.5 games: The World Number 1 was in imperious form in the Quarter Final win over Alex De Minaur and any worries about Jannik Sinner being held back by an illness have been erased.

He admitted he had been feeling much better after the tough Fourth Round win over Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner was able to continue his dominance of the last remaining Australian competing in Melbourne. The match up is simply not a very good one for Alex De Minaur who does not have the power to keep Jannik Sinner from taking over the rallies, while the Italian is always going to have the consistency to eventually break down De Minaur, as proved to be the case in the Quarter Final.

The layers are expecting another routine win for Jannik Sinner when he takes on young American Ben Shelton, but the latter has a much bigger game than Alex De Minaur and that makes him that much more dangerous for the top Seed to deal with.

Unsurprisingly Jannik Sinner does have a winning record against Ben Shelton and the main reason for that is that the World Number 20 is still working on being more effective on the return of serve. This is an issue that Shelton will want to address if he has serious ambitions of winning a Grand Slam, but all the other tools are there for him with big groundstrokes backing up a huge serve.

This Semi Final is going to be all about first strike tennis as far as Ben Shelton is concerned, while Jannik Sinner has to feel confident of his chances if he can neutralise a rally early and then allow his own consistency and big hitting to take over. The backhand advantage for Jannik Sinner gives him the edge, but he will be well aware of the threat that Ben Shelton brings onto the court.

It was a routine win for Jannik Sinner when these two met on the grass at Wimbledon last year, but matches between the pair have been a lot closer on the hard courts.

Ben Shelton won their first hard court match in Shanghai in 2023, but Jannik Sinner has responded by winning the next three, including both played on this surface in 2024. However, Sinner needed to save 7 Break Points in his win over Ben Shelton in Shanghai at the back end of last season and took his one opportunity to earn a tight, competitive win over the American.

This match is expected to be played in the Night Session at Melbourne Park and that may give Jannik Sinner another edge having been used to playing in the conditions on this court. It is another test for Ben Shelton, but the 22 year old has to be encouraged by his performance against the World Number 1 in Shanghai and a big serving day could see him push Jannik Sinner.

As solid as a return player Jannik Sinner has become, it should be noted that he has not had consistent success against the Ben Shelton serve with 14% of return games ending in breaks when competing against the American on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months Jannik Sinner's number is actually closer to 30% on this surface and that just underlines the challenges faced by the top Seed in this Semi Final.

Even in their two matches last year on this surface, Sinner was able to break in one of five return games and this could be a Semi Final which sees competitive sets played.

A three set win for Jannik Sinner may make it difficult to cover this total number of games line, but if Ben Shelton is serving as he can, the match up is one where even a straight sets win might be enough. The Break Points created in Shanghai will give Ben Shelton confidence that he can avoid losing a seventh, eighth and ninth set in a row on this surface against Jannik Sinner and this is a Semi Final that may also go longer than the layers are anticipating.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Alexander Zverev Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner-Ben Shelton Over 32.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-11, + 21.40 Units (73 Units Staked, + 29.32% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 23rd January)

If I am being honest, I am not a big fan of the technology that has infiltrated sport, especially in football where so many subjective decisions are causing controversy.

However, there are certain elements where technology can play an important role- offside is slightly controversial with the line drawing, but goal-line technology is making things much clearer and that is a positive intervention.

With that in mind, it is quite staggering that tennis players are expected to make snap shot calls over things like a double bounce- when the lines were being called by umpires, players were still given a bit of time to determine whether they wanted to challenge calls, but those are much easier to see for a player compared with the number of bounces a ball has taken when it is a bang-bang call.

The reality is that on Day 11 of the Australian Open it was not a bang-bang call when Emma Navarro's drop-shot clearly landed for a second time significantly before Iga Swiatek was able to get to it and the entire Stadium could see what had happened immediately.

However, Emma Navarro was not able to really stop the point where she is expected to and ultimately it has proven to be a controversial moment that will have authorities changing the way they expect the technology to be used.

The match would have still likely landed in Iga Swiatek's direction, but it was a poor look for a sport in a Quarter Final setting and that will be talked about until the Semi Final matches begin on Day 12.

Both Tennis Picks came through on Day 11 and that has moved the number back in a positive direction after a 1-2 record on Day 10.

It has been a really strong tournament and with six matches left it feels more comfortable to say that- however, the focus is to go 6-0 rather than 0-6 over the coming days to give the 2025 year an early boost.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Paula Badosa: In April 2022, Paula Badosa was the World Number 2 and looking like a player ready to challenge the very best for the very biggest prizes in the sport.

Injury pushed Paula Badosa not only down the World Rankings to the point that she was entering the Australian Open in 2024 as the World Number 100, but it also pushed the Spaniard to the brink of retirement.

The last twelve months might have felt like the last roll of the dice for Paula Badosa and any setbacks might have meant retirement was the only real solution to her issues.

Thankfully she has not only largely avoided problems, but Paula Badosa has gradually approached the kind of tennis that took her to World Number 2 in the first place. She reached the US Open Quarter Final in September, only the second time she had made it that far at a Grand Slam event, but Paula Badosa has surpassed that here in Melbourne after the deserved upset of Coco Gauff on Day 10.

Improvements on the court means Paula Badosa entered the tournament as the World Number 12 and she is expected to be back inside the top ten when the new Rankings are released on Monday.

This is a big match for Paula Badosa and she will be hoping that facing a friendly face in Aryna Sabalenka, a good friend off the court, will help ease the tension.

The two time defending Champion came through a tough Quarter Final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and that will have given Aryna Sabalenka a bit more belief as she looks to win another Grand Slam title Down Under. Her overall performance in Melbourne has perhaps not reached her top level, but that could be a positive for Aryna Sabalenka as she looks to peak in the coming days and try and win the title on Saturday.

We know there is better to come from the Sabalenka first serve and that is going to be important in this Semi Final, especially if Paula Badosa continues to serve as well as she has.

The most impressive part of Paula Badosa's serving has to be how well she has managed the second serve and she beat an erratic and inconsistent Coco Gauff impressively. There is an expectation that Aryna Sabalenka will offer more of a threat on the return with this aspect of her tennis being key to her run to the Semi Final, while the experience edge cannot be ignored.

Aryna Sabalenka is leading the head to head thanks to five straight wins over Paula Badosa, including all three played in 2024.

They did play out a competitive match in Stuttgart on the clay, which was prematurely ended when Paula Badosa had to withdraw in the third set, but the other two matches on the hard courts of Miami and clay courts of Roland Garros were both won comfortably enough by the Belarusian.

Paula Badosa has a big game and can be very dangerous, but it is an unfamiliar moment for her and that could just see nerves play a part.

Prior to her successes in Australia, Aryna Sabalenka had some of those difficult learning moments in the big Grand Slam matches and she may just have the power and authority on this court to dish out a painful lesson to a good friend.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Madison Keys: The chances of the Quarter Final moving in a different direction are pretty slim, but Iga Swiatek's win over Emma Navarro had a huge controversial moment in the second set when a clear 'double bounce' was missed by the umpire.

Without an immediate stop of the point, Emma Navarro was not able to review, while Iga Swiatek has had to face some criticism for not showing some sportsmanship to offer the point to her opponent.

It was at a big moment with Navarro looking to move ahead in the second set, but she failed to win another game and Iga Swiatek continues to play at a very high level.

Five wins have been produced at Melbourne Park and the numbers are really impressive, and that means Madison Keys has a huge challenge in front of her as she bids to return to a Grand Slam Final.

The last American female player left in the draw, Madison Keys has played the big points really well in her run to the Semi Final. She has dropped sets in three of the five matches won at the Australian Open, including in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final wins, but credit has to be given to Madison Keys for overcoming tough situations.

Without a doubt she is going to have to pick up her level and Madison Keys is going to have to serve at her very best if she is going to beat Iga Swiatek playing at her current level.

She has being protecting the serve well enough, but Madison Keys is only winning 40% of return points in this tournament and that makes it very difficult to believe in her chances of securing the upset. The fact Keys is now playing an opponent who has just SIX Break Points in five matches won at the Australian Open means the American is likely going to be under significant scoreboard pressure.

Iga Swiatek has not been broken in her last four matches and a dominant first serve has kept her on top of opponents and broken their spirit.

And of course you cannot ignore the fact that the World Number 2 has won 55% of the return points played at the Australian Open, which means Madison Keys is going to have to get plenty of first serves in play and try and move into a position to play first strike tennis. This is going to be very challenging for her and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will control the tempo of this match and break down Keys physically and mentally during the time spent on the court.

The head to head does not make very good reading for Madison Keys, although both matches played against Iga Swiatek in 2024 were on the clay courts and ended in routine wins for the Polish player as expected.

In two previous hard court matches, both players have won once with the most recent being a Madison Keys win in Cincinnati in August 2022. However, the form of the two players leading into this Semi Final suggests Iga Swiatek is going to avenge that defeat and her return is capable of putting Madison Keys under the kind of pressure that eventually leads to a routine win for the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 26-10, + 21.40 Units (69 Units Staked, + 31.01% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 22nd January)

If you ever forget about Novak Djokovic's greatness, there is always another match where he will make sure that all are reminded.

This time it was in the Australian Open Quarter Final as he came from a set down to beat Carlos Alcaraz and that despite obviously having some kind of injury issue to overcome.

The Spaniard will be hugely disappointed by his own performance, but Novak Djokovic battled as hard as he could to remain hopeful of winning a twenty-fifth Grand Slam at the Australian Open and moving clear of Margaret Court to hold the record all on his own.

You wouldn't put it past him, but the favourite remains Jannik Sinner who has a big Quarter Final on Day 11 at the tournament.

Illness rather than injury forced Sinner to dig deep in his Fourth Round victory over Holger Rune, but he will be hoping to have recovered with a full day of rest.

The two Women's Quarter Finals scheduled for Day 11 look like they have been priced pretty well, but the two Tennis Picks will be from the two Men's matches scheduled and can be read below.

Ben Shelton-Lorenzo Sonego over 41.5 games: Big names and big matches have been played in the Australian Open Quarter Finals on Tuesday and Wednesday, but there are also some surprising players making their way into the last eight.

The Second Quarter of the Men's tournament has seen plenty of upsets over the first ten days of this Grand Slam and that means the highest Seed left is Ben Shelton, the World Number 20.

He is a significant favourite against Lorenzo Sonego, the World Number 55, who at 29 years old may not have too many better opportunities to reach the Semi Final of a Grand Slam. This is the first time that the Italian will be playing in a Grand Slam Quarter Final and that is where Ben Shelton has a big experience edge having reached this Round at the Australian Open in 2023 and later followed up with a Semi Final run at the US Open.

Ben Shelton is an improving player and the big challenge for him in the years ahead is to perhaps build up his return game to back up what is going to be a monster serve. That will especially be needed when facing the best players on the Tour at the business end of the Majors, but Ben Shelton feels he is mentally capable of hanging with just about anybody in these best of five set matches.

The serving has been exceptional at the tournament with 94% of games being held, but Ben Shelton's return continues to make matches tougher than they perhaps should have been. He has broken in just shy of 16% of return games played, and that has contributed to matches perhaps going on a bit longer than Ben Shelton would want them to go.

All of that should be tested by Lorenzo Sonego who has held 95% of his own service games through four wins, although the Italian is not as consistent with his serve as much as Ben Shelton.

However, Lorenzo Sonego has shown a bit more from his return game and that could be key in a match that is likely going to need tie-breakers to separate the players.

Overall both players are not at their best on the return and so there is going to be pressure to serve well, which gives Ben Shelton the edge.

They have met twice before on the Tour- Lorenzo Sonego won a Grand Slam match in four sets on the clay courts of Roland Garros, while Ben Shelton was able to earn the win in three sets at the Cincinnati Masters on the hard courts. Both players dominated on the serve in that match on the hard courts and the feeling is that this is a Quarter Final that will likely need four sets to separate the players with the narrow edge going with Ben Shelton.

If the match does go four, you have to believe the serving has been where it should be and that should see this total games line surpassed. Tie-breakers are likely going to be needed at least twice and the two players are capable of running through their service games to at least maintain energy.

Lorenzo Sonego has benefited from a very good draw so Ben Shelton is expected to win the match, but the Italian may just play a part in this Quarter Final and give the fans plenty of tennis to enjoy.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The home crowd and the player across the net are going to be factors in this match, but the biggest as far as Jannik Sinner is concerned is whether a day of rest between the Fourth Round and this Quarter Final is enough time to shake off an illness.

He was clearly struggling during his Fourth Round win over Holger Rune and the defending Champion would almost certainly have withdrawn if this was not a Grand Slam tournament.

The fact is that Jannik Sinner was able to get himself together and he will have had considerable time to get himself ready for this match. It has been scheduled for the Night Session on the Rod Laver Arena so that is also a positive in terms of time to prepare for Jannik Sinner, but he is taking on a home player who is the last hope to see an Australian Champion at this year's Open.

Before May 2023, Alex De Minuar had only reached one Grand Slam Quarter Final, which is surprising for the World Number 8- things have changed now having reached the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open Quarter Finals over the last several months and matching that run at the Australian Open means De Minaur has reached this Round for the first time at his home Slam.

He has been playing at a very solid level in Melbourne, but Alex De Minaur has not faced an opponent inside the top 30 of the World Rankings and this is a significant step upwards.

To underline the point, Alex De Minuar has a 6-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months on the hard courts, while he has lost seven in a row on this surface when facing top 10 Ranked opponents. The Australian has seen his serve attacked by the best players on the Tour, while Alex De Minaur's style of tennis has been exploited with the consistency of those in the top 10 meaning they have been able to protect their serve against him.

Jannik Sinner has been no different with nine wins over Alex De Minaur and eight of those being earned on the hard courts.

It was Alex De Minaur who won the first set played between the players on the professional Tour on the hard courts (not including the Nxt Gen Finals which are sets played up to four games, not six). Since that tie-breaker success in Sofia, Jannik Sinner has won fifteen straight sets on the hard courts against Alex De Minaur and the latter has won more than four games within a set just twice in that run.

The World Number 1 has held almost 91% of his service games played against Alex De Minaur on the hard courts compared with a 63% mark for the latter.

The serve has been a mighty weapon for Jannik Sinner in his run to the Quarter Final in Melbourne and you have to give him a considerable edge as long as he is virtually over the illness that was bothering him on Day 9 at the tournament.

Alex De Minuar will be given a huge amount of support, but he was beaten pretty routinely by Alexander Zverev in the French Open Quarter Final and by Jack Draper in the US Open Quarter Final. The head to head match up with Jannik Sinner has certainly not been in his favour and the feeling is that the defending Champion will have too much strength for Alex De Minuar in front of the home fans.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton-Lorenzo Sonego Over 41.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 24-10, + 17.86 Units (65 Units Staked, + 27.48% Yield)