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Friday 29 September 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo (September 30th)

It feels like every weekend in Boxing we have some solid Knock Outs and some controversy and we got some of both last week.

Zhilei Zhang has put himself in a very strong position to earn a major World Title fight after beating Joe Joyce for a second time.

A damaged eye forced Joyce out of the first fight, but there was no questioning the manner of the second loss as Zhang made true of his nickname 'Big Bang' when catching The Juggernaut with a perfectly timed right hook for a Knock Out of the Year contender.

I expected more from Joyce, but this could simply be an opponent who has his number.

Faster hands and from the southpaw stance is going to the problem for many, and it was quickly clear in the rematch that Joe Joyce simply did not know how to deal with the challenge in front of him.

At 38 years old you can understand why many are talking about Joe Joyce perhaps needing to consider retirement- he is going to find it is a long road back to the top from here and Joyce has enough tape to suggest that many will believe he is in the 'who needs him' club.

Others may feel the chin is no longer the 'weapon' Joe Joyce thought it was and that he could be set for more big losses like the one suffered on Saturday, but the Heavyweight deserves to be given a chance to try and climb up off of the floor if he chooses to move in that direction.

Plotting that route back up to the top is going to be difficult- the likes of Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua are unlikely to want to go in with Joyce, but the rematch with Daniel Dubois could do decent business. In the Heavyweight Division, you are always just a couple of semi-decent wins away from being talked about as a potential World Title contender and Joyce may feel he deserves to give it one more crack to see if he can get into position for that kind of bout.


Controversy had already been courted by DAZN and Matchroom when adding Conor Benn to the card in Orlando (he did not look the best after the long layoff, but Benn did enough to win his fight), but the judging on the night was pretty pathetic.

Sandy Ryan somehow could only earn a Draw in a fight where she did the basics of Boxing- hit and don't get hit- effectively for at least seven of the Ten Rounds scheduled. Even the home fans were booing and Jessica McCaskill almost looked embarrassed with the 97/93 card given in her favour, while it is another case of Boxing hurting itself.

Some close Decisions can frustrate, but it is much more difficult to accept what the Judges claim they are seeing when 99% of viewers only see one winner.

It is expected that Sandy Ryan will get her rematch and ultimately beat the former Undisputed Champion later this year, but it is not ideal that she cannot move past Jessica McCaskill into Unification fights of her own thanks to the poor judging we continue to see.


We have been treated pretty well as Boxing fans in 2023 with big fights being signed and delivered and this weekend is another with the Undisputed vs Undisputed Super Middleweight World Title fight in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo.

Matchroom are running a card in London too so it is a good day for DAZN subscribers in the United Kingdom having had confirmation that the Canelo-Charlo fight will be shown on that channel too.

It is the Cruiserweight King Jai Opetaia who will be headlining in London against Jordan Thompson before the big card from Las Vegas. This looks a decent main event, although it has perhaps gone under the radar with its place in the Boxing schedule and the winner could go onto some big Unification nights.


Just as I was ready to post this thread, news broke that Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk have signed contracts to finally put the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship together. Unsurprisingly it is going to occur in Saudi Arabia at some point between December 2023 and March 2024, but this can only be good news for fans and ultimately the rest of the Division.

Assuming a rematch has also been agreed, the Heavyweight jam might finally begin to clear up over the next eighteen months and some big fights could soon be put together. It would not surprise me if both Fury and Usyk retire at the end of the double header if there has been a clear winner produced, and that should soon open things up for the next generation of Heavyweights to really get into the World Title mix.

It does leave some of the current generation scrambling around- the Deontay Wilder vs Anthony Joshua negotiations have broken down again- but there are some big nights to be made involving those two, Zhilei Zhang, Andy Ruiz Jr, Filip Hrgovic and potentially even Joe Joyce and Daniel Dubios.

Out of those fighters, Dubois is the one with a bit more time to rebuild, but the rest need to get active in what has been a slower than expected year for the Division.



Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo

When Canelo Alvarez signed a three fight deal with PBC, most anticipated that he would be fighting Charlo first up.

However, the feeling was that Middleweight Champion Jermall Charlo would return after a long time out of the ring to challenge the Undisputed Super Middleweight King. Instead it is Jermell Charlo, the Undisputed Light Middleweight Champion, who is moving up two weight Divisions to take on Canelo for all of the marbles in the 168 pound Division.

While he has not had a layoff nearly as long as his twin brother, Jermell Charlo's bid for the Undisputed Super Middleweight crown surprised the majority of fans and those inside of Boxing circles. It has been sixteen months since we last saw Jermell in the ring and in that time he has delayed the mandatory World Title fight with Tim Tsyzu on a couple of occasions too.

No one is going to blame Charlo for taking on a bigger challenge and he has long sounded pretty confident of being able to hand what Canelo Alvarez could bring into the ring. The latter has been operating at a much higher weight class for some time, but the head to head photos have shown that there is little in terms of size between these two and and some may even say that Jermell Charlo has some of the size advantages.

Fighting at 168 for the first time will be challenging of course, but Jermell Charlo has shown he has decent stamina and enough pop to be worthy of the shot.

He has lost before, but Jermell Charlo has made up for that with a strong win over Tony Harrison in the rematch, while also beating Brian Castano in a rematch after a draw the first time around. The skills are there to win a fight like this one, while any of the suggested decline in Canelo Alvarez may leave the Mexican a little vulnerable to an upset.

Suggestions have also been made that Canelo Alvarez has shied away from fighting Afro American fighters since his loss to Floyd Mayweather and that has to be on the mind of the long time pound for pound superstar. There is plenty of motivating factors for Canelo who has not looked himself in his last three fights and a long career could be catching up with him.

Opposing Canelo Alvarez in Vegas is never easy- he has had some very close Decisions there a couple of times in his career. Even what looked like a clear loss to Dmitry Bivol was very close on the cards and there is a feeling that Jermell Charlo could have some difficulties winning this one in the eyes of the judges.

Canelo has looked like he wants to make a point this week and Jermell Charlo has been out of the ring for quite a while, which makes the upset harder to believe in.

Of course we have all heard Charlo talk about the vulnerabilities of Canelo, something that the latter has been mentioning this week, and so there is pressure on the fighter coming up two Divisions to be more than competitive. However, winning on the cards looks like it will be tough and Canelo Alvarez is not going to be someone that is easy to stop having taken shots from much bigger opponents than Jermell Charlo.

It has been a couple of years since Canelo last produced a Stoppage.

However, the length of Jermell Charlo might offer Canelo chances to work the body, where he has been so effective, and the seventeen month layoff for the Undisputed Light Middleweight World Champion is a long one that could be tough to deal with.

An angry, motivated and healthier Canelo Alvarez is still one of the top Boxers in the world and the feeling is that he wants to make a statement by forcing a Stoppage in this one. The question is whether his hand injury has taken away some of that power hitting and especially over the full Twelve Rounds.

I do think there will be some worrying moments for Jermell Charlo down the stretch as Canelo looks to put an exclamation mark down on the fight, especially with Charlo having been out of the ring for as long as he has. It may perhaps seen Jermell Charlo begin to think about a 'win' merely of getting to the cards and Canelo Alvarez is likely to have his hand raised in that fashion.


No one should be doubting the quality of the main event in Las Vegas and it is a card with some big names to back up the headline act.

I am really looking forward to Jesus Ramos vs Erickson Lubin in what feels like something like a crossroads fight at this stage of their respective careers. The veteran is Lubin who has operated at a higher level than Ramos, but the latter has a bit of momentum and is stepping up as a favourite in this fight.

Jesus Ramos does hold a win over Brian Mendoza, which looks even better now Mendoza is holding the Interim WBC World Title, and at 22 years old is still growing as a fighter.

Unsurprisingly Erickson Lubin thinks this is coming too soon for Ramos and this could be a really fun fight with both carrying plenty of power. The edge might be with the younger, unbeaten fighter, but it might depend on what Erikson Lubin has left in the tank.

Both fighters might take some time getting into their rhythm in the southpaw vs southpaw stance, but this should catch fire and one of the two may be forced to be saved by the referee or the corner in the second half of the Twelve Rounder.

Yordenis Ugas is also returning on the main card and it will be the first time we have seen him since the brutal loss to Errol Spence Jr in April 2022.

It will soon be seen as to how much Ugas has left in the tank with a tough match up against Mario Barrios.

Losses to Gervonta Davis and Keith Thurman might suggest that Barrios is not quite up to the very top level, but he has a fight under his belt this year as he got back to winning ways following those back to back defeats.

Despite only recently coming up to Welterweight, Mario Barrios has size to cause problems for Yordenis Ugas, who will have to use all of his experience to win this one on the cards.


The main card will feature four fights, but those in Las Vegas will also benefit from seeing Frank Sanchez making sure he is ticking over as the unbeaten Heavyweight continues to search for a big fight, and they will also have The Nail Oleksandr Gvozdyk continuing his return after retiring in the aftermath of a defeat to Artur Beterbiev.

Both should win early in their respective bouts before looking for bigger fights in 2024.


There are a couple of rival cards going head to head in the United Kingdom and the biggest fight looks to be the World Cruiserweight Title on the line in London.

Jai Opetaia upset Maris Breidis to become the King of the Division, but injury has meant he has been out of the ring since July 2022.

Some big Unifications were spoken about, but those have not come off and Matchroom have instead looked to begin their new partnership with the Champion by having him come to London to take on an unbeaten British fighter in Jordan Thompson.

The latter is a big Cruiserweight and has passed all tests so far, but he is taking a big leap into this one and the feeling is that he will eventually break down.

Jordan Thompson can come again, but Matchroom are looking to showcase the talent of Jai Opetaia and the Australian can warm to his task and earn the Stoppage.


One of the fighters who has given Jordan Thompson his biggest scare is Vasil Ducar and he is on the undercard of the main event.

He dropped Thompton in the Tenth Round of their fight, but Ducar was pretty well beaten on the cards.

There is no doubting his toughness and it could be difficult for Cheavon Clarke to force a Stoppage, although the unbeaten Cruiserweight should have far too much on the cards. The layers expect Clarke to find the Stoppage having put away five of his six previously defeated opponents inside the distance, but Ducar can just show some veteran experience to hear the final bell in this Ten Rounder.


A fight that has flown under the radar features Murat Gassiev and Otto Wallin at Heavyweight.

The former has been very inactive since losing to Oleksandr Usyk in the World Boxing Super Series Final of a Cruiserweight tournament in July 2018. This is only the fifth fight Gassiev has had since then after the move to Heavyweight and he has totalled just eight Rounds in a little over five years.

Otto Wallin is best known for almost stopping Tyson Fury on cuts, but out of the ring issues have meant the Swedish Heavyweight has not been able to build on that unexpected performance. He has won five fights in a row with some solid veterans seen off and it is a big surprise to see the southpaw as the wide underdog in this one.

Perhaps something has already been decided, but Otto Wallin is the superior fighter at this weight and Murat Gassiev was well beaten by southpaw Usyk in the aforementioned Final. The underdog looks a very big price and almost has to be taken on, even if the price smells fishy.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jesus Ramos-Erickson Lubin to End Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Yordenis Ugas to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Oleksandr Gvozdyk to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Jai Opetaia to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Cheavon Clarke to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Otto Wallin to Win @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 40-78, - 29.72 Units (221 Units Staked, - 13.48% Yield)

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