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Friday, 8 September 2023

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2023 (September 8th)

After the disruption on Arthur Ashe, security should be more vigilant for the men's Semi Finals compared with the women's Semi Finals played on Day 11 of the tournament.

An almost hour delay after just eleven games had been played in the eventual Coco Gauff win, the organisers were finally able to remove the last of the protestors who had managed to glue himself to the stand.

The American handled the occasion far better than Karolina Muchova as Coco Gauff reaches another major Final and this time she will be facing Aryna Sabalenka, who showed tremendous heart and character to recover from 6-0, 5-3 down to beat Madison Keys in a final set Super Tie-Breaker.


Both players will be preparing for the Saturday showcase Final, but the attention will first turn to the men with the two Semi Final matches scheduled to be played at Day 12 of the tournament.

Most will be anticipating a Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Final to round of the US Open, but Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev may have something to say about that.


Ben Shelton over 12.5 aces v Novak Djokovic: A nice clip resurfaced after the Quarter Final win over Frances Tiafoe in which Ben Shelton is speaking to Tiafoe and Christoper Eubanks and wanting to become such a force in tennis that no one would want to see him competing in the tournament.

It was an interesting ambition to target as a goal and Ben Shelton has the weapons that certainly suggest this young American star could be a future Grand Slam Champion in the making.

He reached the Australian Open Quarter Final earlier this year and Ben Shelton has surpassed that effort with this Semi Final run at the US Open. However, both have been as surprising as each other considering the lack of solid runs produced in other hard court events, while Shelton had been in poor form in the build up to his home Grand Slam.

Confidence has to be coursing through his veins right now though and that makes this huge serving lefty a potential problem for Novak Djokovic, who is targeting a first title here in five years. Of course Novak Djokovic was missing from the tournament last year, but he has been beaten in the Fourth Round in both 2019 and 2020 (retirement mid-match and disqualification) before going down to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the Final in 2021.

Three of the twenty-three Grand Slam titles won by the Serb have been won in New York City and he is likely going to have to deal with a hot crowd and an excitable opponent. The returning in the win over Taylor Fritz will have given Novak Djokovic a boost, but the fact that Ben Shelton's is a left-handed delivery may take a bit more getting used to, especially as the American tends to follow that serve up with some big groundstrokes.

Staying with Novak Djokovic long enough to win this match looks unlikely, especially with Djokovic's dominance of American rivals in Grand Slam events. At some point you would think the Number 2 Seed's returning prowess will shine through and put Ben Shelton under pressure, although, again, you have to have a lot of respect for the way Shelton has handled playing top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

He is 2-4 in those matches and has held 88% of his service games, including pushing Carlos Alcaraz in Toronto last month.

Much will depend on the serve and Ben Shelton may be able to put a number of aces in this match- some of those could even be in games where Novak Djokovic is not so focused in getting balls back in play, while the lefty serve opens up some great angles, while the Ben Shelton speed is recognised.

Novak Djokovic has returned well in the tournament, but his serving was not at its best in the Quarter Final win over Taylor Fritz as he offered up some routes back into the match in the third set. Eventually he prevailed in straight sets, but the feeling is that Ben Shelton will push him a little more and might be able to serve well enough to keep this competitive on the scoreboard.

It would be a huge upset if Ben Shelton was to reach the Final, but he may end up being proud of a huge effort to push the dominant Djokovic for long enough to set the American up for bigger things to come in 2024.

Covering this ace total will not be easy considering how well Novak Djokovic returns, but the feeling is that Ben Shelton will likely take risks on his second serve as well as his first delivery. Borna Gojo managed to ace Djokovic fourteen times in the Fourth Round and you have to believe that this Shelton serve can at least match that total, even more so when you consider it is coming from the southpaw stance that naturally can open the ace avenues up that much more.

With the pace that Ben Shelton is finding on the court, he can certainly hit at least thirteen aces even in a straight sets loss.


Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: While most tennis fans will see Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz as the top two players on the Tour by some distance (and most likely US Open Finalists on Sunday), perhaps more respect needs to be given to Daniil Medvedev.

He is a former Grand Slam Champion and is clearly the World Number 3 right now having worked his way through to another Semi Final at the US Open. Before the tournament began, Medvedev did state that he felt the top two players have pulled clear, but he was also pretty honest in suggesting that he is someway past the current World Number 4 and we have seen evidence of that through the course of the 2023 season.

Unfortunately for Daniil Medvedev, he is facing the top Seed and defending US Open Champion in this Semi Final and it is very difficult to imagine the match being vastly different than when they met in the Wimbledon Semi Final. On that day Carlos Alcaraz was able to win in straight sets and without really being pushed, while those who think Medvedev is a different prospect on the hard courts compared with the grass have to also accept that the Spaniard was not exactly massively experienced in SW19 before winning the title in July.

This time the match is played on the hard courts on which Carlos Alcaraz has thrived with his consistent best Grand Slam results being at the US Open. It is from a very young career that the statement can be made, but Alcaraz will be just as happy as being back on the hard courts as Daniil Medvedev and he did have the stronger results in the Masters events prior to the US Open beginning.

You have to believe the match that Daniil Medvedev played in the heat of the day on Wednesday is going to be a factor too, even if he finished a few hours before Carlos Alcaraz took to the court. Winning in straight sets was absolutely vital to the World Number 3, but it was played in awfully tough conditions and there is not a lot of time to get himself ready for this Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev returned well in the win over Andrey Rublev, but did not serve nearly as effectively as he would have hoped and will have to be improved in that regard. His return position is going to be interesting having lost both matches to Carlos Alcaraz this season with the Spaniard employing serve-volley tactics and getting to the net against someone who has become known for standing several feet behind the baseline on the return and in play.

Getting closer to the baseline may make the return a little less effective, but Daniil Medvedev will need to change his approach after losing all five sets played against Alcaraz this season. Two of those were lost on the hard courts of Indian Wells as Carlos Alcaraz picked up another big title, while Medvedev has won just fourteen games across those five sets.

The numbers from the two season meetings are not making good reading for Daniil Medvedev- he has only held 58% of service games played compared with Carlos Alcaraz and his 91% mark and that is a big difference that cannot be ignored.

We have yet to see the very best of the defending Champion in this tournament, but he should be fresh and Carlos Alcaraz has been steady throughout to say the least. On the other side, Daniil Medvedev has seen his numbers declining in each passing Round and the feeling is that there is still a big gap between the two players at their current levels, while any tactical changes might not be truly seen from the Russian until the 2024 season with more time to work on it.

Covering this number of games in a Semi Final is never easy, but Carlos Alcaraz might just have too much for Daniil Medvedev right now and he can find the breaks needed to pull clear and earn the right to defend his title on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton Over 12.5 Aces @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 38-34, - 5.34 Units (144 Units Staked, - 3.71% Yield)

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