The College Football season got underway at the end of August for some teams and in early September for most others, but we have already seen a number of results that will have changed the fortunes of some of the favourites to reach the PlayOffs later in the year.
In recent years the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers have been regular names in the final four PlayOff selection, but both missed out last year.
Both have already lost games to the Texas Longhorns and Duke Blue Devils respectively in the opening two weeks of the season and that means both are under significant pressure. It would actually be an upset if the Crimson Tide and Tigers are able to avoid a second loss between now and the end of the season with the likes of the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles looking strong in the respective Conferences.
The win for the Longhorns will have given that fanbase a huge boost in confidence and Texas will be feeling like they have laid an early marker to the SEC that they will soon be joining.
The Big 12 is not an easy Conference to negotiate, but Texas have momentum from that win in Alabama, while teams like the USC Trojans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions will believe there are spaces to earn in the PlayOff at the end of the season.
We are still very early into the new season and things will change very quickly with some big games to come and excitement will be build once the majority of teams get their Divisional schedules going.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Three of the current top seven in the NCAA Football Rankings reside in the Big Ten East Division and the Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) are the 'lowest' of those teams. It is going to be an incredible challenge for Penn State to finish above both the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines in this Division, let alone to go on and win the Big Ten Championship Game and maybe even take part in the College Football PlayOffs.
The Nittany Lions have opened with two wins in 2023 against opponents they have been heavily favoured to beat and they have a seven game winning streak to take into Week 3. However, this is the first road test of the season for Penn State and the first Big Ten game to be played, so there is a challenge to be overcome despite the fact that the Nittany Lions are down as pretty big favourites.
They actually had a three game winning run in this series ended when last facing the Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1) in 2021, but this current group look to be a work in progress. A narrow home win over the Toledo Rockets would not have been that inspiring, but the Fighting Illini were pretty well beaten at the Kansas Jayhawks in Week 2 as Illinois prepare to get Conference play under way too.
One of the big problems facing Illinois on Saturday is getting the Defensive unit back on track against a Penn State team who have scored at least 30 points in nine games in a row. Big expectations might have been on the shoulders of Drew Allar taking over as the Quarter Back for the Nittany Lions, but he looks like he is capable of matching those and is facing an Illinois Secondary that has really been struggling.
Drew Allar will feel he can step up when he is called to make plays, but the Quarter Back might just have to lean on the Offensive Line and the strong rushing attack we have already seen from the Nittany Lions. They have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground and now have to face an Illinois Defensive Line allowing 5.2 yards per carry.
Keeping Allar in third and manageable will just make things that much easier for the Quarter Back, while play-action could see Drew Allar look to make some big plays down the field. There have been holes to exploit in the Fighting Illini Secondary and you have to expect Penn State to have a really good balance when they have the ball in their Offensive hands.
This will shift the attention onto the Illinois Offense, although Head Coach Bret Bielema is clearly happy with what he has seen so far. An inexperienced Quarter Back in Luke Altmyer has provided a dual-threat out of the position, but this Penn State Defensive unit is the best he would have had to deal with in 2023 so far.
Leaning on the running game would be the ideal approach for Luke Altmyer, but that only works as long as this game is competitive. Even then, the Fighting Illini are going to be facing a Penn State Defensive Line that has been restricting opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and that may mean Altmyer has to make more plays with his arm.
So far the Nittany Lions have proven to be an effective Secondary and they are helped by the pass rush pressure being generated. You have to believe the Nittany Lions will be able to get into the backfield and pile on the hits on Luke Altmyer with the Illinois Offensive Line struggling when it comes to pass protection rather than run blocking.
This is where things could begin to go wrong for the home team and Illinois might just struggle to stay with Penn State in this Big Ten Conference game.
The defeat in October 2021 will not have been easily forgotten by the Penn State Nittany Lions and so there should be motivation to turn that around. Prior to that, the Nittany Lions have blown out the Fighting Illini three times in a row and Penn State look capable of winning this by a wide enough margin to cover the number set in Week 3.
Penn State have covered in all four situations where they have been set as the road favourite since the beginning of the 2022 season and they can do that here, despite the Illinois record at bouncing back from losses in recent games.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ USF Bulls Pick: Losing games in September has been an alien experience for everyone associated with the Alabama Crimson Tide (1-1) and it would have hurt all the more that they were downed in their own Stadium in Week 2.
A defeat to the Texas Longhorns already means the Crimson Tide have little room for error before their loaded SEC schedule even begins, while the players have a chance to bounce back immediately against another non-Conference opponent before SEC play begins next week.
The drop off from playing the Longhorns to taking on the South Florida Bulls is a big one and the Crimson Tide are being asked to cover a huge line. You cannot be that surprised by the line considering the Bulls had lost eleven in a row before their win in Week 2 against a school that does not play in the FBS.
South Florida have struggled to deal with teams at this Division level, including when playing American Athletic Conference opponents. Now they have to step up to face an angry SEC team that will be looking to make a statement and it really does feel like this is going to be a game that ends in a blowout.
The Bulls do have a new Head Coach in Alex Golesh who was the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Tennessee Volunteers when they upset the Crimson Tide last year. However, this is going to be a transition kind of season for the Bulls and this time Golesh is not going to have SEC level talents to call upon to deal with the Crimson Tide.
Alabama are not the same team as last season and have had to replace players like Bryce Young and Will Anderson, who both were selected in the top three of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Quarter Back situation is one that is going to be difficult all season having lost someone like Young, but there have been some positive signs from Jalen Milroe, even if he threw two costly Interceptions in the eventual defeat to the Texas Longhorns in Week 2.
This is going to be a much more comfortable game to play in for the Quarter Back and the Alabama Crimson Tide should be able to impose their power on the Offensive side of the ball. The Offensive Line has not been at their best, but this is a big chance for Alabama to build some confidence and this is a team that crushed Middle Tennessee by 49 points in Week 1 of the season.
The Bulls have had some decent Offensive numbers to open the season, although they have been having problems Defensively. However, it is going to be very difficult for South Florida to have the same Offensive consistency against a team like Alabama and the Offensive Line has already been having a tough season when it comes to pass protection.
Will Anderson is not here to take advantage, but, once again, Alabama have an opportunity to get some confidence into those rushing the passer and they should be able to get to Byrum Brown on a regular basis throughout this game.
The South Florida Quarter Back will be facing the quickest and most gifted Defensive unit he is likely to see this season and Brown is unlikely to be in many third and manageable spots. Pressure to make plays from third and long could add up and the feeling is that the Crimson Tide are going to want to run up the score if they can to erase the painful loss to the Longhorns.
Alabama have not been a good team to back against the spread on the road over the last twelve months, but this spot looks like one in which they are going to be focused, angry and ready to light up the scoreboard.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators Pick: The ending of the 2022 season might have been a lot different for the Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) if it wasn't for an injury suffered by Quarter Back Hendon Hooker in the loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks. That was the second defeat of the season and ultimately meant the Volunteers were not going to be picked to join the College Football PlayOff.
If they had won that game and Hooker had been healthy, the Volunteers would have had a serious case to be involved in the PlayOff with the other loss being against the Georgia Bulldogs. Frustration aside, the Volunteers ended up beating the Clemson Tigers in their Bowl Game and there is some excitement about what is to come in the 2023 season, even if some key players have departed.
Hendon Hooker is now in the NFL with the Detroit Lions, but the Volunteers have to be happy enough with what they have seen from Joe Milton III. They will believe there is still more to come from the Quarter Back, who has four Touchdown passes with no Interceptions in his two starts in 2023, but the Volunteers likely also need more as they face their first significant test of the season.
A true road game in SEC play is always going to be tough to deal with for those inexperienced and in recent years the Tennessee Volunteers have really struggled in The Swamp. In fact they have not had much success against the Florida Gators (1-1) in general, snapping a five game losing run at home last season.
This Florida team is still in transition and were well beaten in Week 1 by the Utah Utes, although bouncing back to crush an overmatched FCS opponent might have made the Gators feel a little better. Graham Mertz is plenty experienced when it comes to playing big Football games having been the Quarter Back for the Wisconsin Badgers before transferring to the Florida Gators, but there are still question marks about his overall ability to win the bigger games.
The Quarter Back is going to try and operate behind what has been a shaky Offensive Line and you have to believe the Volunteers will get plenty of pressure around Graham Mertz when he does drop back to throw. While there are talented playmakers around him, Mertz may have to play from third and long at times and need to hold onto the ball longer than he would be hoping, which brings the pass rush pressure to him.
Both teams will be looking to impose themselves on the Defensive Line and force the Quarter Back on each sideline to have to step up to the mark. However, it just feels like the Tennessee Offensive Line can open up a few more lanes for the rush to develop compared with the Gators Offensive Line and ultimately that is going to help the road team win this game.
Road wins in the SEC never come easily and the Volunteers have yet to really impress this season. They are unbeaten though and the Florida defeat to the Utah Utes is a concern, even if they have not been beaten in Gainesville by the Volunteers in twenty years.
Florida have also been very successful in the rare times they have been set as the home underdog, but Joe Milton III can out-perform Graham Mertz at the critical moments in this big Conference game and that can help the Volunteers win by around ten points in Week 3.
Florida Atlantic Owls @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Until the College Football PlayOff format is expanded, losses at this stage of the season can be very problematic. The Clemson Tigers (1-1) have already been downed within the Division and the pressure will be on the team to try and run the table with the knowledge that two losses are likely to be fatal to the chances of reaching the post-season.
They did bounce back from an awful loss to the Duke Blue Devils, and the Clemson Tigers look to be facing another overmatched team after blowing out a FCS school in Week 2.
This time they are back in Division I action, although the Tigers are considered big favourites when it comes to beating the Florida Atlantic Owls (1-1).
Florida Atlantic are trying to bounce back from a defeat, but they will know there is a big talent gap to bridge. They will try to run the ball, but the Owls Offensive Line will not be able to push around this Clemson Defensive Line, while the Tigers Secondary have played well in their opening two games, even if the team have faltered to a 1-1 start.
A bigger impact for the Tigers is expected to be on the Offensive side of the ball as they look to build some momentum to take into a huge game against the Florida State Seminoles in Week 4. Cade Klubnik is a Quarter Back with a lot of potential and there is excitement around him in Clemson, but he knows he will need to be a lot better than he was in the Week 1 loss to the Blue Devils when throwing a little over 200 yards and finishing with a 1-1 Touchdown to Interception ratio.
While he is likely going to be handing the ball off and looking for the Offensive Line to open some big running lanes, Cade Klubnik should have a big passing day against this Owls Secondary and that will be key for the Quarter Back. He threw 4 Touchdown passes against an overmatched opponent in Week 2 and Klubnik could match that total in this one with the Tigers expected to blow out Florida Atlantic.
The upcoming game against the Seminoles is a potential distraction, but the Owls were blown out by the UCF Knights early in the 2022 season and Clemson look capable of doing that as they continue to right the wrongs of Week 1.
Colorado State Rams @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: You would think some of the other Head Coaches and Co-Ordinaters in College Football would have learned a lesson and not try to poke the hornet's nest.
Instead, the Colorado State Rams (0-1) Head Coach Jay Norvell had to take a swipe at 'Coach Prime' and he has once again made this feel 'personal' to the Colorado Buffaloes (2-0). Perhaps Norvell is trying to inspire his own players or perhaps he is trying to get the media to move past the blowout loss suffered in the Rams opening game, but either way, it has worked as bulletin board material for the Buffaloes, who are big favourites to win a third game in a row.
Deion Sanders has really sparked something early in his tenure as the Head Coach of the Colorado Buffaloes and wins over TCU and Nebraska are impressive. Divisional play will get underway next week at the Oregon Ducks, but the Buffaloes are focused game by game and they look 'primed' for a big win.
Shedeur Sanders is the Quarter Back of the Buffaloes and he will have been playing with a chip on the shoulder after all of the suggestions that he is only being selected as the son of the Head Coach. Instead, the younger Sanders has put up some monster numbers through the air and has 6 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception in two games.
One game does not make a season, but the Rams Secondary is going to have to be a lot better than they were in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars. They might be able to get into the backfield and try and rattle Shedeur Sanders, but the feeling is that an 'angry' and 'disrespected' Buffaloes Offense is going to try and light up the scoreboard.
The Defensive side of the ball is still a work in progress for Colorado, but they should be able to deal with what the Rams are going to be putting on the field. The starting Quarter Back, Clay Millen, is expected to be ruled out and the pressure will be on Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who is likely going to be plugged in after throwing 210 yards with 2 Touchdown passes and a single Interception in the opening game.
Colorado State will have some success Offensively, but keeping up in this rivalry game will be difficult and ultimately you have to believe Colorado Buffaloes will pull clear.
The Buffaloes have won five in a row in the series, while three of the last four wins have been by at least 21 points.
There will be excitement around the game with the Game Day College Football crew in town, but the feeling is that the Buffaloes are going to be looking to make another statement to a 'disrespectful' opponent. Colorado were 22 point winners over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 2 and the feeling is that Coach Prime will be looking for a little more of a margin on the board against a weaker opponent in Game 3 before Pac-12 action gets underway.
MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions - 14 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs + 10 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 33.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 7 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 7 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes - 23.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
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