First it was Aaron Rodgers.
Next it is Nick Chubb.
The NFL is a brutally tough year for all of the athletes involved and it is really difficult to watch some of the biggest names suffer serious injury. They will be the players that make the headlines, and it was good to hear Saquon Barkley has escaped a season ending injury of his own, but there are players throughout the League who are going down with long-term injuries.
Once again, it is the main reason it is so difficult to pick the Super Bowl Champion in August with the outlook for any team changing drastically. The Jets looked terrible without Rodgers amidst Zach Wilson continuing to struggle, although it feels like they will have to make a move to bring in another Quarter Back to give this team a chance, while the Cleveland Browns will have a hard time without their best Offensive player.
The Giants might have put a big comeback on the board in Week 2, but would not have been the same team without Saquon Barkley if he was forced to miss the entirety of the season.
Last season we saw how quickly things changed for the Miami Dolphins when Tua Tagovailoa continued to deal with concussion issues and it is the main reason my enthusiasm is still being contained after a very good 2-0 start. Winning games behind a big Offensive effort in Week 1 and then a strong Defensive effort in Week 2 is very encouraging, but the Dolphins will need better health than last season and it would give them every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
There are some good looking teams in the AFC, while the NFC continues to look like a three horse race between the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Those three teams looked the best in the Conference going into the season and nothing has changed through the first two weeks of the 2023 season, although it is again wise to point out how quickly things can shift with an injury or two.
Week 3 begins with a Thursday Night Football game between two NFC teams playing after road wins on Sunday.
Further selections will be placed in this thread in the coming days as we begin another busy week before the first London games of the 2023 season in Week 4.
It was a mixed week for the NFL Picks, but a couple of those selections could have easily turned my way with late plays changing the eventual outcome.
Hopefully there is better to come in Week 3, beginning with this Thursday Night Football game.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: At one stage it looked like the New York Giants (1-1) were on their way to a second blowout loss of the 2023 season as they trailed the Arizona Cardinals by 21 points into the second half. All credit has to be given to the team for fighting back and earning the victory on a late Field Goal, even if they missed the cover of the line, but it may be tough to replicate just days later with a game on Thursday Night Football.
Putting in as much of an emotional effort, as well as a physical one, will have taken something from the New York Giants. The win will have made them feel better, but they are facing the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) in their first home game of the season and the limited time to recover certainly favours the home team.
The Giants have stuck around on the West Coast in preparation for the Thursday Night Football schedule in Week 3, but they may have to do without Saquon Barkley who was injured late in the win over the Cardinals. The Running Back was vitally important to the recovery made by New York and the only positive news for the Giants is that the ankle injury picked up in the Week 2 victory is not expected to keep Barkley out for too long.
Even now, Brian Daboll has refused to rule out Barkley playing on Thursday, but that is a long shot and it would make sense to keep him out with the additional time between Week 3 and Week 4 games on the short week.
The pressure will be on Daniel Jones, who had struggled in the first half against Arizona as he continues to operate behind a shaky Offensive Line. That does not bode well for the Giants against this San Francisco Defensive unit, which may be the best in the NFL, and keeping the 49ers pass rush out of the backfield is going to be an almost impossible task for this Giants Offensive Line.
It is very difficult to imagine the Giants being able to establish the run with any kind of consistency, even if Daniel Jones is capable of some big gains on the ground himself. Without Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida will be looking to make an impact against his former team, but the 49ers Defensive Line is tough and it could be a long day for the entire Giants Offensive unit.
Unfortunately for fans of New York, the San Francisco Offense is not expected to have many issues moving the ball up and down the field.
Kyle Shanahan designs some very creative Offensive plays, but he may lean on a more traditional approach in this one with Christian McCaffrey expected to have a big game on the ground. The 49ers are moving the ball at 5.6 yards per carry early in the 2023 season and they are facing a New York Defensive Line that were getting run over by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.
This time the Giants are also facing a Quarter Back who has been comfortable in the San Francisco system and Brock Purdy is likely to be playing in a relatively clean pocket. Brandon Aiyuk could be absent for the 49ers, but Purdy is expected to have a solid game operating from short down and distance more often than not and the San Francisco 49ers look capable of covering what is a big spread.
The Giants did win the last time they played a road game in San Francisco, but that was back in November 2018 and they were blown out at home by the 49ers in September 2020.
This is a spread that leaves a team open to a backdoor cover, but the feeling is that the San Francisco 49ers could pile up the points and make a few more plays on the Defensive side of the ball. Some could be concerned with this being a game set between two Divisional games for the 49ers, but San Francisco will not be too concerned with an upcoming game against Arizona and they may be able to shut down the Giants Offensive output for long enough to clear this mark.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns Pick: A devastating injury to Nick Chubb has left the Cleveland Browns (1-1) wondering what they can achieve in the 2023 season. Losing the best Offensive player clearly affected the team in the loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, but it also means having to put more pressure on the shoulders of Deshaun Watson, who has yet to reach the levels he was producing with the Houston Texans prior to the allegations about his conduct which meant missing almost two years of playing time.
The Quarter Back is still speaking with plenty of confidence, but the play on the field has been erratic and it will be even tougher for him if teams are not focusing on Nick Chubb and shutting down one of the top Running Backs in the NFL.
Kareem Hunt has returned to Cleveland and his familiarity with the system should help, but he isn't Nick Chubb. The Offensive Line has opened some big holes for the running game, although they are a little banged up and trying to move the ball on the ground against this Tennessee Titans (1-1) Defensive Line is going to be tough. You have to believe Hunt and Jerome Ford will have some success, but the Titans have been tough up front and they may feel that locking down the run will make this all the easier to shut off the Cleveland Offensive game plan.
On the other hand, this could be a big opportunity for Deshaun Watson considering some of the yards that the Titans have given up through the air. Amari Cooper is banged up and potentially limited in Week 3, and the Offensive Line has really had issues keeping teams from out of the backfield, but Watson could have some success when he does get a bit of time.
Having that time is perhaps not going to be easy against this Tennessee pass rush and the Titans have to feel the Defensive unit can give them every chance of earning the potential upset on the road.
In saying that, we have to see more out of the Tennessee Offense and that may be tough if Derrick Henry is not able to suit up. Even with Henry in the line up, the big Running Back will be hitting the Cleveland Defensive Line that is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry on the season and this is an entire unit that has played well in both games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers this season.
Ryan Tannehill is difficult to trust considering the form of the veteran early this season- he is not being helped by the Offensive Line which has been stronger in run blocking compared to pass protection, but Tannehill has also made some poor decisions when throwing and it has led to Interceptions.
There were signs of improvement in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2, but Tannehill struggled on the road in the loss at the New Orleans Saints. This Cleveland Defense is perhaps even better than the one the Saints are running out onto the field and they can get pressure up front which may rattle the veteran into more mistakes.
A low-scoring game is likely in this one between two tough Defensive units and it could come down to a mistake or two in determining a winner. The Browns have yet to lose two in a row since Deshaun Watson became their Quarter Back, but losing Nick Chubb for the season will have sent shockwaves through the locker room.
The Browns can bounce back and win this one, but the Titans look a solid team to back with the points. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has a solid record as the underdog, both outright and against the spread, and it feels Tennessee can make enough plays to keep this one close at the very least.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: You have to immediately note the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) have failed to cover as a home favourite in the Trevor Lawrence era at Quarter Back, while the team are travelling to London next week for back to back games.
This could be a potential distraction, but you have to believe the Jaguars will be focused seeing as they are playing a Divisional rival and were just beaten by the Kansas City Chiefs. They would have circled that home game with the Chiefs having been beaten by the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the PlayOffs and coming up short will have hurt, but the Jaguars should be motivated to compete in Week 3.
They are big favourites to beat the Houston Texans (0-2) who have started the CJ Stroud era with a couple of relatively comfortable defeats. The loss last week at home against the Indianapolis Colts was a concern considering the Texans had been narrow favourites against their Divisional rivals, but this is going to be a transitional season for the team and every week it is going to be a learning curve for the young Quarter Back.
CJ Stroud did throw for almost 400 passing yards and had 2 Touchdown passes last week and this Jaguars Secondary is one that will give up some yards. However, the pressure may be all on the Quarter Back, who can scramble around, especially if the Texans are not able to establish the run.
Doing so will not be easy against the Jacksonville Defensive Line- the Houston Offensive Line is banged up and not going to be at full strength in Week 3 and so it is a big ask for the Texans to get much going on the ground. The Offensive Line issues have also meant CJ Stroud has been hit far more than the Houston Texans would have liked and the Jaguars can certainly get into the backfield and prevent Stroud from having the time to attack the Secondary.
While the Offensive unit may have some issues finding consistency, the Houston Defensive unit have really knuckled down and played pretty well. Running the ball well is going to be key for Jacksonville, who have not really established the ground game as well as they would have liked through the first couple of weeks of the season, but doing so will just ease any pressure on Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.
It will also give Lawrence a chance to use play-action to try and attack a Secondary which has played well through the first couple of weeks of the season. Of course it should be noted that Houston have played Baltimore and Indianapolis and neither team have really had a lot of success throwing the ball early on, but Trevor Lawrence has a solid set of Receivers that should offer a much bigger challenge to the Texans.
Calvin Ridley has returned with a vengeance and the Jaguars should be able to offer up more of a test for the Houston Secondary, even if Jacksonville are still working their way into the season.
A balanced Jacksonville Offensive performance led to a big road win over the Houston Texans on New Year's Day, but the expectation is that Trevor Lawrence will be able to have a bit more success throwing. That win snapped a long losing run to the Houston Texans and the Jaguars are capable of backing that up as they look to head to London with some momentum behind them.
Covering as a favourite has been tough, but the Jaguars can make enough plays to do that against the Houston Texans with the Defensive Line likely to set up some short fields that will help the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence will be looking to bounce back from the loss in Week 2 and Jacksonville can find the points to cover here.
Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Back to back road wins to start the season looked tough on paper, but the Miami Dolphins (2-0) have won impressively at the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots. They have picked up the victory in different ways in those two games and that will be hugely encouraging to the fans with some already thinking this is a Super Bowl team in the making.
Health will be key for the Dolphins and they play at home for the first time this season when hosting the Denver Broncos (0-2).
A couple of plays landing a different way would have seen Sean Payton and Russell Wilson's relationship begin with two wins, but the Broncos have fallen to defeat at home against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders and already feel like they are playing catch up.
Being in the AFC West means the Broncos can ill-afford to drop another game to fall into a 0-3 hole, but this is a tough place to pick up a victory.
Sean Payton was brought in as Head Coach with the task of 'fixing' Russell Wilson, but it has not worked out as planned so far this season. There have been one or two positive signs from the Quarter Back in the loss in Week 2, but the worry will be the stretches of poor play coming from the veteran, who is also on a very big deal.
The pressure can be relieved if the Denver Broncos are able to run the ball and they will feel that is possible against this Miami Defensive Line. The Dolphins played the run pretty well last week, but are still dealing with some injuries on the Line and this Denver Offensive Line has been able to open up one or two big lanes for Javonte Williams.
Russell Wilson is no longer the scrambling Quarter Back of his prime with the Seattle Seahawks, which is perhaps holding the Broncos back. He has been holding onto the ball a little too long and not able to move away from the pass rush pressure like he once did, but Wilson will be helped if the Broncos are able to push the ball on the ground and give him third and manageable down and distance to deal with.
Vic Fangio may not be talking about the 'revenge' factor, but the former Denver Head Coach may want his Defensive unit in Miami to really get after the Broncos. He will know that the Broncos Offensive Line have had some issues in pass protection and the Dolphins are more than capable of getting into Russell Wilson's backfield, especially if the Broncos become one-dimensional with their play-calling.
Overall you do have to think the Broncos can run the ball and at least give themselves a chance to stay with the Miami Dolphins in this one. The trenches tend to be very important in determining games in the NFL and the Denver Broncos may feel they can run the ball, but also do pretty well at stopping the Miami rushing attack.
This could be pretty important this week with Jayden Waddle expected to have to sit out for the Dolphins as he goes through the concussion protocol. It might mean needing to rely on the run a little more than the Miami Dolphins might have done otherwise, although the Tua Tagovailoa connection with Tyreek Hill is still expected to flourish.
The health of Tagovailoa is going to be very important in determining how the 2023 season is going to develop for the Dolphins and he is playing behind an Offensive Line which is offering up plenty of protection. Mike McDaniels is also a strong Offensive mind who is helping his Quarter Back by getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly at times and the Dolphins will feel this Denver Secondary is still vulnerable after watching how the Washington Commanders attacked them last week.
It should mean the Miami Dolphins are still going to have plenty of Offensive success, even if Waddle has to sit out, and you can imagine plenty will back them to win this by at least a Touchdown. However, the Denver Broncos look capable of scoring a few points of their own and the backdoor cover will certainly be available to the road team.
This is especially so considering the spot in which this game is scheduled- the Dolphins have beaten two potential PlayOff rivals on the road, including a Divisional rival on prime time in Week 2, and Miami are next facing the Buffalo Bills on the road. That is an important game that could be a major factor in working out which of these teams is capable of winning the Division and it could mean the Dolphins are distracted and not focusing so much on the blowout, even for Defensive Co-Ordinator Vic Fangio.
Miami should win, but Sean Payton can design enough plays to help the Broncos keep this one close on the scoreboard. The Broncos can control the clock with their running attack and make sure they keep the Miami Offensive unit on the sidelines for long periods to cool down and the road team could make the points count.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 10 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals + 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Las Vegas Raiders - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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