Late night means this post is out much later than anticipated.
The Day 8 Picks thread will be posted much earlier than this one is for Day 7 as the Fourth Round begins at the US Open.
Frances Tiafoe - 6.5 games v Rinky Hijikata: You cannot take anything away from a player that has won three matches to take their place in the second week of any Grand Slam event, but there are factors that cannot be ignored.
At 22 years old there is plenty more to come from Rinky Hijikata, who is about to enter the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time, and he is enjoying his best successes at a Grand Slam event. Previously the best effort was making the Second Round at his home Grand Slam at the Australian Open earlier this year and Hijikata has suffered a number of Qualifying losses, and this run will have given him a lot of confidence.
Also, you have to accept that Rinky Hijikata could not have asked for a much better draw through to the Fourth Round as Seeds have crumbed around his section. Beating the World Number 98 in a close match in the First Round is a positive result, but Rinky Hijikata has benefited from taking on shells of Marton Fucsovics and Zhizhen Zhang in the next two Rounds as the previous tennis has caught up with those two players.
Both had upset Seeds in five setters in the previous Round before facing Hijikata (Zhang had played back to back five setters) and that was seen on the court when facing the young Australian.
This time it is going to be a much different kind of match for Hijikata as he takes on a player that is beloved by the New York City crowds and one who reached the Semi Final at the US Open twelve months ago. Frances Tiafoe has eased his way through the first three Rounds this year and the quality of his tennis is shown up in the strong, dominant numbers produced in each of the wins so far in the tournament.
The last two players he has beaten have been Ranked considerably higher than Rinky Hijikata and Frances Tiafoe has really gotten his eye in on the return, which is going to be a big problem for the underdog in this match. The American has created forty-six Break Points in his three wins at the US Open and Frances Tiafoe has been dominant behind his serve, which makes it very difficult to imagine this being anything other than a win for the favourite.
He may have three top 100 Ranked wins in the tournament, but Rinky Hijikata had shown little of that ability before the US Open with his 2-8 record in those matches on the hard courts this year. Stefanos Tsitsipas dismissed his challenge brutally at the Australian Open in January and it is a big ask for Rinky Hijikata to protect his serve effectively enough to be able to earn an opportunity at the upset.
It has been a strong tournament and gives him something to build upon, but Frances Tiafoe is a player on a mission and he is expected to roll through this Fourth Round match once he cranks up the pressure in the second and third sets.
Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Ben Shelton: A repeat of the Australian Open Quarter Final takes place in the Fourth Round at the US Open and both Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton will be expecting to play in front of a hot home crowd.
This should be one of the best matches of the day with both Paul and Shelton capable of some big time tennis and the fans are likely going to make it a raucous atmosphere. Big serving is going to be the order of the day and that makes it a tougher match to call, but Tommy Paul is the more experienced of the two American players and has been operating at a higher level on the Tour.
There is so much to like about the Ben Shelton game, but he had not been in the best form prior to the US Open and that makes his run a little more surprising than the one that Tommy Paul has enjoyed. It should be noted that Ben Shelton has had a more straight-forward path with a retirement in the Second Round helping him through after playing just a set of tennis, while the other two wins have been in four sets as the favourite.
On the other side, Tommy Paul had to come from two sets down in the Second Round and backed that up with a strong win in the Third Round. He has dropped at least one set in each of his wins in the tournament, but the good news for Tommy Paul fans is that he has not had to spend an incredibly long time on the court, which is going to be important for fitness in what is likely to be the hottest day of the tournament so far.
Both players have to accept some of the service games are going to rush right past the returner, but Paul is the better player when it comes to winning return games.
Dealing with the Ben Shelton serve is obviously a different test compared to most on the Tour, and the big server has held 88% of service games in seven matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season. It certainly gives Shelton a chance of the upset, although in those same matches he has only broken in 9% of return games played, which ultimately puts him under pressure to serve well.
That was the case when these players met at the Australian Open and Tommy Paul was able to get enough balls back in play to find the breaks needed to win the match in four sets. There was a clear advantage to Tommy Paul when it came to the serving numbers in that match and the slightly slower conditions than usual at the US Open may actually suit the higher Ranked player.
The Day 7 schedule is not out at the time of writing, but you would imagine this is a match that will be placed in the 'Night Session', which may suit Tommy Paul a little more in the cooler conditions expected compared with the day.
Ben Shelton is going to be dangerous, but you have to expect Tommy Paul to have a little too much experience of these big matches and the added quality on the returning side of his tennis should help the higher Ranked American into the Quarter Final.
Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Dominic Stricker: In usual circumstances this would feel like a very big handicap mark for Taylor Fritz to cover, especially at the US Open where he has perhaps felt the most pressure of his career.
However, he has been a dominant player in this tournament and taken full advantage of what has been a kind draw and Taylor Fritz is a big favourite to reach a second career Grand Slam Quarter Final. There will be pressure in getting into the real business end of a Slam, a home Slam in particular, but Taylor Fritz is experienced and the reality is that he could not have asked for a much better opponent to face.
On the face of it you may think that is disrespectful towards Dominic Stricker, but this has been a really strong tournament for the young player.
He will have some pressure to deal with as he follows in the footsteps of Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka, but Dominic Stricker has done well to come through the Qualifiers and win three matches in the main draw. It will mean entry into the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time, which will mean gaining entry into better tournaments going forward.
The left hander will have picked up plenty of confidence from his run in New York City and the win over Stefanos Tsitsipas will really stand Stricker in good stead going forward.
So why does this feel like a good match up for Taylor Fritz? Very simply, Dominic Stricker has played a lot of tennis to get into the Fourth Round and back to back five setters are anything but ideal. He looked a little fatigued in the Third Round win over Benjamin Bonzi, a match the Frenchman will feel he should have won, and that fatigue may just have made the Dominic Stricker serve vulnerable, even to a returner like Taylor Fritz.
The American has been seeing the ball very big in cruising through the tournament without dropping a set, while the Fritz serve is likely going to keep Dominic Stricker under the cosh for much of this match. Scoreboard pressure and just the accumulation of all of the tennis played at the tournament is expected to be a major factor in the Fourth Round match.
Taylor Fritz has been clinical when the Break Points have come his way in the run to the Fourth Round and the feeling is that tiredness will just wear down Dominic Stricker as much as the opponent on the other side of the net.
MY PICKS: Frances Tiafoe - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 25-27, - 13.94 Units (104 Units Staked, - 13.40% Yield)
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