This has been an incredibly tough tournament to predict as far as the Tennis Picks have gone, but there is still an opportunity for a strong end to the US Open as we complete the Quarter Final line up on Monday.
The quality of matches should be increasing at this stage of any Grand Slam, but there are also a number of more surprising names left in the draw as the upsets ee
Alexander Zverev-Jannik Sinner over 38.5 games: It feels wrong to have a match of this quality in the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam, but Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner have to stay focused on what matters rather what is to come.
While both have shown they have the quality of tennis to win Grand Slam titles, Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner have been operating under the large cloud cast by the top two players in the world on the men's side of the draw. The German has voiced some of his frustration with the media, who have been hoping for the Djokovic-Alcaraz Final, and Alexander Zverev will want to throw a spanner in the works having gotten closer to his form he was displaying before the injury suffered at the French Open in June 2022.
He rolled through the the final two sets in a four set win over Grigor Dimitrov in the Third Round and Alexander Zverev has shown some decent form since the end of Wimbledon. A run to the Semi Final at the Cincinnati Masters will have boosted the confidence of a former US Open Runner Up and Zverev will know has beaten Jannik Sinner in each of their last three meetings, including at this Grand Slam two years ago.
However, it should be noted that Jannik Sinner was the lower Ranked player in each of the four professional matches against Alexander Zverev and those roles are switched ahead of this good looking Fourth Round match.
The Italian made harder work of Stan Wawrinka than was expected, but he still came through in four sets and Jannik Sinner has dropped just a single set in the tournament. He has to have some concern about the poorer serving numbers in the win over Wawrinka and it will be very important for Jannik Sinner to produce better in this one considering how well Alexander Zverev has returned throughout the tournament.
Jannik Sinner is an aggressive player and that can sometimes work against him on his own return and there are going to be plenty out there willing to back Zverev for the upset.
In their two previous hard court matches, the German has been able to contain Sinner behind his strong serving and that has paved the way for scoreboard pressure to build up on the latter. It is certainly going to be something that Alexander Zverev will look to do in this Fourth Round match and getting plenty of first serves in play will make him very dangerous.
Alexander Zverev has won all five sets played against Jannik Sinner on the hard courts, but this one is expected to be much more competitive and it would be a surprise if we do not need at least four sets to separate these top players.
If they are serving as well as they can, the sets should be competitive and the two players can combine to surpass this total games line set for the contest.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Alex De Minaur: Reaching the second week of a Grand Slam event has been challenging for Alex De Minaur, but he is back at that stage at the US Open and will be looking for only his second ever Quarter Final run at this level.
The only previous one also came at the US Open in 2020, but this looks a very tough match on paper, even if the Australian has won his last two matches against Daniil Medvedev.
The former US Open Champion continues to have a lot of fun with getting into it with the crowd at Flushing Meadows and it certainly feels like a situation where Daniil Medvedev enjoys being a 'villain'. He has not been at his absolute best through the first week, but Medvedev is playing some decent tennis and is still expecting himself to be the biggest threat to the top two names in the men's draw.
Daniil Medvedev was pushed harder than perhaps the scoreboard suggests in his Third Round win over Sebastian Baez, but he has been returning very well at the US Open and that is expected to be a key to the outcome of this match.
He will be well aware that he has lost his last two matches against Alex De Minaur, and will also recognise that the Australian has been very impressive in his last two wins, but Daniil Medvedev will be confident in his return game being good enough to put De Minaur under pressure.
Alex De Minaur has a decent record against top 10 opponents on the hard courts in 2023 with five wins and just three losses, while he has not dropped his serve in the last two matches played. The draw has not been a bad one, but the manner of the win over Nicolas Jarry can only have been a boost for Alex De Minaur and his team and those last two matches against Daniil Medvedev both ending in wins for the lower Ranked player has to give him a spring in his step ahead of this match for a place in the Quarter Final.
The defeat in Canada last month will be the one that could really play a factor in this Fourth Round match, but Daniil Medvedev will expect himself to be better than he was that day. Even though he did not perform to the level he would have wanted, Medvedev played two competitive sets thanks to his return and this part of his tennis is going to be very important.
There is no doubt that Alex De Minaur will feel he can get enough balls back in play to make this awkward for Daniil Medvedev, but the former Champion might just be able to bite down at the most crucial of moments and earn a victory without the need for a final set decider.
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 sets v Jack Draper: There is a huge amount of faith in the ability of Jack Draper and he is seen as a player with a lot of potential that could be fulfilled, although much will depend on how healthy he can remain in his career.
Injuries have been an issue early on, but Draper will still be growing and those issues may be better handled going forward.
It is the hope for Draper and his team and his run at the US Open underlines what can be achieved when he is healthy and firing on the court. A lefty serve gives Draper an edge, and he has made good use of that shot in his career, while the British player has a decent return game too and all of this bodes well for him.
He will need all of those tools if he is going to earn the upset over Andrey Rublev who is looking to reach yet another Grand Slam Quarter Final. Andrey Rublev has done that eight times before at Majors, including at the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, although he is still looking to breakthrough for a first Semi Final.
Those pressures will be on his shoulders after this match, but the focus has to be on the opponent in front of him. Andrey Rublev has beaten Jack Draper twice before on the Tour with one of those victories being on the hard courts in the United States, and the higher Ranked player has to know that he is going to need to serve very well to just keep Draper from building up some steam.
Both players are strong servers, but the consistency has to be with Andrey Rublev, while Jack Draper's numbers have just dropped in each of the last three Rounds. As the opponent quality has picked up, Jack Draper will likely know that anything less than his best serving day could see him put under immense pressure by Andrey Rublev, who tends to beat those he is expected to more often than not.
You can never rule out someone with the talent Jack Draper clearly has, but Rublev is playing really well at the tournament and his serving numbers have been solid. If he can maintain that form, he may just have enough to win this match in three or four sets.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Jannik Sinner Over 38.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 26-31, - 19.94 Units (114 Units Staked, - 17.49% Yield)
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