The first month of the College Football season usually sees teams from the Power 5 Conferences picking on some of the other schools in the FBS and FCS, but there have already been plenty of upsets in inter-Conference games that has changed the PlayOff picture.
Week 4 promises to be another good one with big games between the Clemson Tigers and Florida State Seminoles and Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Ohio State Buckeyes. The former is a big one that could end up seeing the Seminoles become a genuine PlayOff capable team, although the Tigers will have plenty to say about that, while the latter is a game between two unbeaten teams who will feel a win will give them a big name to put on the resume.
Conference play looks to be getting going around the College Football world in Week 4 too and we will soon start to get a really good picture of what the PlayOff could look like before the expanded post-season at the end of the 2024 season.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: Joining the Big 12 Conference will give the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) an opportunity to return to the College Football PlayOffs in the years ahead. They will be hosting their first Conference game of the 2023 season in Week 4 of the College Football season, but the Bearcats will only have a very short Conference rivalry with their opponent, the Oklahoma Sooners (3-0).
In the years ahead, the Sooners will be a SEC team, but they look like a team that is capable of leaving the Big 12 with a bang having made a strong start to the season. Most will generally come to expect a strong Oklahoma Sooners Offensive unit, but they have impressed on the Defensive side of the ball early on and maintaining early standards would make the Sooners tough to beat.
We have seen the Bearcats pile up the yards early on this season on the Offensive side of the ball, but this is also a team that has not faced the quality of the Sooners. The Week 3 loss to the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks will have stung, although that may have been down to the fact that the Bearcats were looking ahead to this game with the Sooners in the Big 12.
They will need Emory Jones to get the Offensive unit working with some efficiency if the Bearcats are going to earn the home upset and his dual-threat ability from the Quarter Back position could be important. He has helped the Bearcats in putting up some solid rushing numbers, but Cincinnati have to accept that this going to be a much tougher challenge to establish the run against an Oklahoma Defensive Line that has been restricting limited opponents to just 2.3 yards per carry.
This has allowed the Sooners to build up some pass rush pressure, but they will have to pay attention to Jones in case he chooses to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs. Emory Jones has some solid passing numbers too, although he will be testing a Secondary that has found a way to get in front of those passes and picking up a number of Interceptions already.
Cincinnati will feel they can have some success Offensively, but the bigger question for the Bearcats is whether they can become the first team to give Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma Offensive unit something to think about. Previously, Dillon Gabriel struggled to beat the Bearcats when playing for the UCF Knights, but he is playing with stronger team-mates in this one and has opened the season with 11 Touchdown passes to go alongside a single Interception.
This Bearcats Secondary have been playing well, but again against limited opponents, while Dillon Gabriel is likely to be backed up by a stronger Offensive Line and a rushing game that should keep him in third and manageable spots. The Sooners will need to run the ball well in order to slow down what has been a decent Cincinnati pass rush early in the season, but doing so should also open up the playbook for their Quarter Back who has been shining through the first month of the regular season.
Playing a first road game of the season is always tough for College Football teams, even if they have the qualities of the Sooners.
Covering two Touchdown spreads is a big ask, but Gabriel and the Sooners Offensive unit are well backed on the other side of the ball and they can make an early statement about their intentions for the season.
We are a couple of weeks away from the big rivalry game between the Sooners and the Texas Longhorns, but that should not be a distraction for Oklahoma right now. A close first half could be replaced with the Sooners exerting more pressure in the second half as they pull away for a relatively wide win.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Matt Rhule will understand that it is going to take some time for his Coaching to get the Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-2) back to the National Championship levels they were once playing at. A first win of the season and in his time as Head Coach will certainly give the Cornhuskers something to build upon, although the win over the Northern Illinois Huskies came at a cost with injuries to two of the top three Running Backs on the roster.
It is a bitter blow for a team that will be spending 2023 learning from a new Head Coach, but the Cornhuskers are still a pretty strong favourite to win this Week 4 game and get back up to 0.500 for the season.
They could be boosted by a potentially returning Quarter Back in Jeff Sims, while the fans will arrive with a bit more confidence after a strong win in Week 3. Nebraska are also facing another team they should be beating in the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-2) and Matt Rhule will be looking for his players to stay disciplined and focused and not worry too much about the upcoming game against the Michigan Wolverines.
Louisiana Tech did put up 37 points in a losing effort in Week 3 and they will believe the have the Offensive talent to score in this one, although it will not be easy. One of the biggest issues for the Bulldogs will be establishing the run against a strong Nebraska Defensive Line and becoming one-dimensional with the play-calling is very difficult for a big underdog.
While the Bulldogs will feel the passing game will have some success, they will also have to deal with a powerful Nebraska pass rush from potentially third and long situations and this is going to make it tough to consistently make plays.
Despite the injuries to key players in the Running Back corps, Nebraska should have fewer issues in establishing the run in this game. The Cornhuskers will likely rip off some very big gains on the ground and a potentially returning Jeff Sims should have a relatively comfortable game from the Quarter Back position.
We have yet to see the Cornhuskers throw the ball around as they would perhaps like, but the play-action could be open in this one with the team expected to pound the rock effectively.
Interceptions have been a problem early, but this is where the ability to rip off big ground gains should really help. It will mean the Bulldogs have to try and bring the Linebackers up a little bit to help the Defensive Line and it could mean Sims, or Heinrich Haarberg, has a solid game at Quarter Back. Heinrich Haarberg had a strong outing on the ground and made some decent plays throwing from the Quarter Back position in the win over Northern Illinois in Week 3 and this looks a game that he could thrive in if he has to start ahead of Jeff Sims.
These schools met in 2006 in what ended up being a big win for Nebraska- the Cornhuskers will be made to work harder in this one, but can produce back to back home wins for the first time in two years. Covering the spread will not be easy, but there looks to be a strong chance that Nebraska can control the clock and make a few plays through the air on the Defensive side of the ball to get over the top of the line.
Maryland Terrapins @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: Both of these teams will be playing their first Big Ten Conference game of the season in Week 4 of the 2023 season, but it does feel like the confidence and focus of the two teams will be pretty different.
The Maryland Terrapins (3-0) have been a big favourite in each of their first three games this season and they have managed to win all of those. However, they will also be well aware that they are going into the Big Ten East schedule, which is about as tough as it comes, and road games have tended to be problematic for them.
In a couple of weeks the Terrapins will be heading on the road to face the Ohio State Buckeyes, who could be the best team in the Conference, but first up is a trip to the Michigan State Spartans (2-1) who feel like are in disarray.
Last week the Spartans were embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Washington Huskies and that was just days after Head Coach Mel Tucker had been informed that he was being let go. Mel Tucker has been dealing with sexual harassment allegations and it did feel like the players were distracted in the heavy home loss in Week 3.
The response is going to be very interesting to watch in Week 4 against a talented Maryland team, but College Football is different to the NFL. This time players might be wondering about whether they need to transfer or whether they just want to look after their bodies as the perhaps prepare to play at the next level, and the distractions like the one that the Spartans are dealing with can lead to a lost season.
Michigan State are facing a Maryland team that have not really been the same when they have had to travel, although in 2023 it may be different for the Terrapins. Noah Kim is expected to have a better game at Quarter Back after a poor game against the Huskies, like many of his team-mates, and he is going to be key for the Spartans.
Running the ball has been a challenge for the Spartans this season and they are facing a Maryland Defensive Line which has been operating pretty well to open the season. This is the toughest test they would have faced, but Michigan State's Offensive Line have not been opening big running lanes, although been much better in pass protection.
That should help Noah Kim, but the Spartans have to be much more focused as they prepare to face Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland Offensive unit.
While his brother is really beginning to show his qualities in the NFL, Taulia Tagovailoa has to show that he can bring his home form into a road game and that is going to be key as to how far the Maryland Terrapins can go this season. Like the Terrapins Defensive Line, the Michigan State Spartans have played the run pretty well this season, although the Secondary could not stop the Washington Huskies in the Week 3 blowout.
Doing the same is not going to be easy for Tagovailoa, who has not played as well on the road as mentioned, but the Quarter Back should be playing in a relatively clean pocket and that should help. Last season Taulia Tagovailoa did throw for over 300 yards in a big home win over the Michigan State Spartans, which is going to give their Quarter Back some confidence ahead of this one.
It is going to be tough on the road, but Tagovailoa can at least have similar success to last season against this Michigan State Secondary. If the Spartans are still not sure about what is going on off the field, they could lose their focus and it may end up being a rare occasion in which the Terrapins not only win on the road, but win by double digits.
Maryland have some big games to come and this is the hardest game they will have played this season, but the Terrapins can find some big plays in the second half on both sides of the ball and that will give them a chance of a win and cover in the road favourite spot.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 14 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 13 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 9 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Maryland Terrapins - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 13 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears + 17 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers - 11 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment