SEVENTY POINTS!!!
Where else can you start when thinking back to Week 3 than with my Miami Dolphins after an unbelievable Offensive effort as they completely embarrassed the Denver Broncos to move to 3-0.
There is no doubt that this is the most exciting time being a Dolphins fan in what feels like forever- some may say perhaps the most exciting time since the Super Bowl team of 1984 led by Dan Marino in his sophomore year in the League.
Overreaction is going to be a thing every Monday/Tuesday after the NFL Week is completed, but you do have to believe the Miami Dolphins are about as good as any team in the League right now. Unfortunately the Super Bowl is not played right now and there is still a long season to negotiate, while the Dolphins are still an injury to Tua Tagovailoa away from being a good, not great, team.
A big game is coming up for Miami in Week 4 as they visit the Buffalo Bills, where the 2022 season came to an end in the PlayOffs without Tagovailoa at Quarter Back. The Bills also won big this past week and moved up to 2-1 for the season and it does feel like Buffalo and Miami will be fighting it out for the AFC East crown after injury to Aaron Rodgers knocked the Jets out of contention in their current form.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be another contender in the AFC, while you have to believe the Cincinnati Bengals will be turning around their early season results much as they did last season.
At this moment it is clear that I am trying to keep my cool about the Dolphins can do, but it has been a generation since a team as good as this one has been playing in Miami colours.
The likes of the Dolphins, Bills and Chiefs were winning big this week, but there were some upsets around the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens losing home games to the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts respectively would have made bigger headlines if not for the Dallas Cowboys losing to the Arizona Cardinals.
America's Team will always generate the stories that people want to read and there will be some that once again point to Dak Prescott and believe the Quarter Back is holding back the Cowboys. A poor Interception in the Arizona End Zone as time was ticking down in the Fourth Quarter was massively costly for the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott will have something to prove when facing the New England Patriots and then San Francisco 49ers over the next couple of weeks.
Personally it has felt like the Cowboys could have moved on from the Quarter Back in previous years, but Prescott is also capable of producing a string of starts where he plays flawless Football.
If he can put that together in January you just never know with this Dallas team, although the injury to Trevon Diggs is a big blow in the Secondary.
It also does feel that the loss to the Arizona Cardinals is just one of those early season losses that teams will take and Dallas can certainly bounce back. However, a loss on Sunday in Week 4 will really put some early pressure on the Cowboys who always seem to be a defeat away from a crisis these days.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: With Aaron Rodgers leaving the NFC North, the Detroit Lions (2-1) have been the pick to win the Division for most in the 2023 season and little has happened to change the minds of those who have backed them to do so.
A home loss to the Seattle Seahawks was a disappointment, but the Lions have a winning record and it helps they are playing in a Division containing both the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, two teams who might already be thinking ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft after losing all six combined games.
The biggest challenger to the Detroit Lions winning the Division looks to be Aaron Rodgers' old team, the Green Bay Packers (2-1), who also have a winning record through three weeks of the season. It is not easy to judge the Packers on their first three games considering they have beaten a bad Chicago Bears team, blown a big lead against the Atlanta Falcons in a road loss and then coming back from 17-0 behind to win the home opener against the New Orleans Saints.
Green Bay would have put considerable effort into the win over the Saints and they are now playing this Thursday Night Football game on a short week. A number of key players were missing on Sunday and it is very difficult to imagine that the likes of Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones or Christian Watson will be ready to go even if this is an important game for the home team.
Even if a player as good as Aaron Jones was available, it might have been a tough ask for him and AJ Dillon to establish the run against this Detroit Defensive Line. The Packers are not going to shy away from the run in a bid to put Jordan Love in the best possible spot at the Quarter Back position, but the Lions should be ready to clamp down on the run up front and force the Packers to try and move the chains through the air.
That is where the absence of Jones will hurt as he can be a threat leaking out of the backfield, although Jordan Love will be glad that he has been given some early protection from the Offensive Line when stepping back to throw. A team missing David Bakhtiari will be tested by the Lions pass rush led by Aiden Hutchinson, who picked up two Sacks in the win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3.
Pressure up front can just make things that much more difficult for the Green Bay Packers to move the ball consistently and another factor to add is the relatively up and down nature of Jordan Love's early performances. He has yet to put a full game together and had issues against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3 and now Love has to face another tough Defensive unit.
He will still have some successes from what we have seen from the Packers through the first three weeks of the season, but it also should be noted how banged up they are on the Offensive side of the ball.
And the reality is that the Green Bay Packers are going to need a strong full game performance from Jordan Love to stay with the Detroit Lions, who have picked up from where they left off in the 2022 season.
Jared Goff has found a real home in Detroit since arriving here in a trade from the Los Angeles Rams and he could benefit from a bit more support on the ground in this Week 4 game. David Montgomery could miss out again and the Offensive Line picked up another injury in the win over the Atlanta Falcons, but the Lions could benefit from giving Jahmyr Gibbs more touches of the ball in the backfield.
The Packers Defensive Line have played the run pretty well this season, but this has been a long-term weakness of the team and the Lions may use Gibbs to make sure they are not behind the chains. Despite the injuries on the Offensive Line, Detroit have remained pretty good when it comes to pass protection and they have given Jared Goff time to make his plays down the field and may be able to at least play with the knowledge that the Packers pass rush may not have the same kind of impact as they have had for much of the season.
Injuries in the Secondary could be exploited by this Detroit Lions Offensive unit and Jared Goff may be ready to lead the Lions to a fourth straight win over this Divisional rival.
In recent years it has been tough for the Lions to win games at Lambeau Field, but they did in January as a four point underdog. The situation is different this season with the Lions down as the narrow favourites, and that can play a factor in the mindset of teams, but Detroit are not the Division Champions and Dan Campbell will be looking for his team to put a statement win on the board.
They did that as a big underdog in Week 1 at the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Lions look much healthier than the Green Bay Packers for this short week meeting and that can help Detroit win and cover on the road.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Pick: The annual game in London is going to be a little different for the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) as they will be playing here twice in a row.
The Jaguars have to be hoping that the change in venue, and country, can help them bounce back after dropping back to back games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans. The loss to the Texans was very disappointing, but Jacksonville will feel they only have themselves to blame and they need to get back on the horse in Week 4.
They are facing the Atlanta Falcons (2-1) who also suffered a loss in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions to end their unbeaten start to the season.
Unlike the Jaguars, the Atlanta Falcons will be heading back to the United States following this game and they will be hoping the Offense can get back on track after a difficult outing against the Lions. The problem for the Falcons is that they don't seem to match up that well with the Jaguars on this side of the ball and there could be pressure on Desmond Ridder to make the plays to keep the chains moving.
The sophomore Quarter Back has really been a game manager in his time at the helm for the Atlanta Falcons and Ridder has been able to rely on the Offensive Line and the strong running game they can put on the field. A problem develops when the Falcons are not able to establish the run, as we saw in the loss to the Lions, and this could be another challenging day for them despite the talent in the backfield.
Jacksonville's Defensive Line have been pretty good at containing the run up front and they will be focused on locking down Bijan Robinson and making sure the Falcons are relying on Desmond Ridder to move the chains with his arm.
The Quarter Back has some big time Receiving options and this might be a good chance for Ridder to have a strong day considering the issues that the Jaguars have in the Secondary. He might find himself with a bit more time in the pocket despite being harassed all day by the Lions pass rush last week and that is because Jacksonville have yet to really find the pressure they would have liked up front.
Desmond Ridder will need to have a strong outing, although the Falcons are likely to be given a chance by their Defense, which has been playing well for much of the season.
The Falcons might struggle to get the run going, but Jacksonville should have a chance to establish Travis Etienne and that will be important for the entire team. They will be given a chance to find the Offensive balance that can keep the Falcons guessing about what is coming and establishing the run just makes things a bit easier for Trevor Lawrence.
This is a bounce back spot for Lawrence who finished with a single Touchdown pass and an Interception in the Week 3 loss to the Houston Texans at home. Running the ball will open up play-action, but Trevor Lawrence is expected to have time in the pocket and there is no doubting the quality that Jacksonville have brought in to surround their Quarter Back.
Atlanta's Secondary have played well, but this is a revenge spot for Calvin Ridley against his former team and he is backed up by Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. With time in the pocket, Trevor Lawrence is expected to find those Receivers for some big gains.
You cannot discount the experience that the Jaguars have in playing these London games compared to most others, although they have lost three of their last four games played in the Great Britain Capital. All three of the losses have been at Wembley Stadium, where this Week 4 game will be played, but the Jacksonville Jaguars can bounce back from consecutive losses against the Falcons.
It might be a lower scoring game where the edge has to be with Trevor Lawrence to make one or two more plays compared with Desmond Ridder.
Last weekend continued Jacksonville's poor record as a home favourite and this will feel like a home game in London. However, they can use the advantage at the Quarter Back position to do just enough to cover this number before preparing to 'host' the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 at Tottenham Hotspur.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Losses for the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders (2-1) have left the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) all on their own as an unbeaten team in the NFC East. The defending NFC Champions are beginning to look a bit more like the team that reached the Super Bowl last season and they were comfortable winners on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.
They had some flu issues inside the camp, but the Eagles have had a few more days to recover from the illness and the Eagles fans would have likely circled this game against this Divisional rival.
It was the Washington Commanders who were the first team to beat the Philadelphia Eagles who had been 8-0 at the time.
That result also means Washington have won two of their last three visits to Philadelphia, but this Eagles team looks very strong at all levels.
The game plan should be pretty clear for the Eagles when they have the fall and that will be to pound the run against the Commanders Defensive Line which has been allowing 4.8 yards per carry early in the season. There is no doubting the power of the Philadelphia Offensive Line and Jalen Hurts is also capable of making plays with his legs from the Quarter Back position.
Being in front of the chains should help the Eagles in pass protection, which has been a surprising vulnerability early in the season. For a long time the Commanders have been able to send a strong pass rush onto the field, but it will be hard to get into the backfield if the Eagles are operating in short down and distance more often than not, while Jalen Hurts is going to be throwing to the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith who are capable of beating opponents all across the field.
The expectation has to be that the Eagles will be able to move the ball effectively in this one and that is going to put pressure on the Washington Commanders who are coming into Week 4 off a blowout loss at home to the Buffalo Bills. The wins over Arizona and Denver do not look that good when you think of how good those two opponents have looked and Philadelphia are definitely more Buffalo than Denver.
Playing from behind is going to be tough for Washington and falling two scores behind would make it very hard for Sam Howell to bounce back after being roughed about by the Bills last week. The Commanders do not want Howell to be in a position where he needs to throw too many times, but Washington may struggle to establish the run against the Philadelphia Defensive Line and that means the Quarter Back will have to perhaps do more than the road team would like.
Sam Howell may find some holes to exploit in the Eagles Secondary, but he will need to avoid being in third and long situations. Last week he was not able to get away from the Buffalo pass rush and the Eagles are capable of cracking into the backfield if the Commanders Offensive Line has not sorted out their problems.
The Commanders have given up 19 Sacks already this season and Sam Howell will have a tough time allowing plays to develop if the Line is breaking down around him.
Washington do have a couple of quality Receivers who will find some routes to get open, but it is hard to imagine the Commanders having a lot of time Offensively and Sam Howell could be forced into a couple of mistakes. Interceptions were a major issue against the best Defensive unit that Sam Howell faced last week and Philadelphia might be able to get in front of some of the throws.
Backing the underdog has been very rewarding in this Divisional Series in recent times, but the Eagles have looked a strong team as they build the chemistry between the new Offensive Co-Ordinator and Jalen Hurts.
The revenge factor for the home loss in 2022 could be at play here- Washington covered as an 11 point underdog in winning outright at the Eagles last year, but this time it feels like Philadelphia can make enough plays on the Defensive side of the ball to give their Offense a chance to cover the spread set.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: An almost historic performance from the Miami Dolphins (3-0) in Week 3 of the regular season saw them put up 70 points against the Denver Broncos and just three points short of matching the NFL record. Only Mike McDaniels decision to take a knee rather than kick a Field Goal ended the humiliating day in the office for the Broncos and there are many out there who are now considering the Miami Dolphins as the best team in the NFL.
You have to credit the team for the three wins secured and the Dolphins are certainly incredibly dangerous and creative Offensively, but this is a tough test for them against the Buffalo Bills (2-1), the recent dominant team in the AFC East.
This is a big rivalry game and the Miami Dolphins should be plenty motivated as they look to earn some revenge for the PlayOff loss to the Bills last season. That was in a game where Tua Tagovailoa was injured and missing, while the backup Teddy Bridgewater was also out injured which meant needing to use Skylar Thompson at Quarter Back.
Even then, the Miami Dolphins came closer than expected to upsetting the Buffalo Bills in a 3 point loss and they were also beaten by just 3 points in the regular season. Tua Tagovailoa was able to play in the regular season defeat in this Stadium and the Miami Dolphins will be back to full strength in the Receiving position with Jayden Waddle out of concussion protocol.
A key to the Dolphins early season success is the fact they are getting a lot more out of the running game and that has allowed the Dolphins to create some very good plays for their Quarter Back. The speed of the team makes them very dangerous, but Miami cannot be expected to pile up the points as they did against Denver every time they step out on the field.
The Broncos have a Defense that has been struggling, but in Week 4 the Dolphins have to face a Buffalo Defensive unit that is playing at a very high level.
One area that may be of concern is stopping the run and the Bills could have issues with this Miami Offensive Line and their current level of play. Buffalo have given up an average of 110 yards per game on the ground, but the concern will be that those have been picked up at 5.9 yards per carry.
The Bills cannot sell out to stop the run considering the quality we have seen from the Miami passing game, but Buffalo will believe in their Secondary and the ability to at least try and slow down Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Both Receivers have speed and intelligence to find the soft spots in the coverage, but Miami will have to make sure they don't move away from the run in order to keep Tua Tagovailoa from having the Bills pass rush get into his face.
Miami fans will believe in the Offensive power of the team, but it could be tough to pile up the numbers as they have been. You also have to consider the few issues Miami had when playing the New England Patriots, the best Defensive unit faced this season, and Buffalo will certainly believe they can match Miami on the other side of the ball too.
Vic Fangio has made an early impact with the Miami Defense, but he is going to be tested by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Offense, especially as the Quarter Back has dominated the Dolphins since being Drafted by the Bills. Like Miami, Buffalo will look to use the run to keep the high-powered opponents on the sidelines and James Cook will be able to put up some solid numbers behind this Offensive Line.
The Dolphins are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season and will also have to account for the running ability of Josh Allen out of the Quarter Back position.
Establishing the run is going to be a key part of the game plan for the Bills as they look to control the clock and it will ease the pass rush that Miami have been able to generate. It will also allow Josh Allen to make quicker passes and the Quarter Back can make the plays to keep the First Downs ticking over and give the Bills every chance of winning this big game.
Miami covered in all three games against Buffalo in the 2022 season, but this is the shortest line between the teams in a long time, which just underlines the improvement being made by the Dolphins.
Wins at Los Angeles Chargers and New England have backed up those improved levels considering Miami lost at both Stadiums last season. However, Buffalo have been incredibly strong at home in recent years and Sean McDermott and his team will feel they are being overshadowed after what the Dolphins did in Week 3, which will not sit right for the three time defending AFC East Champions.
The public look to be behind my Miami Dolphins, but the Buffalo Defensive unit might just be able to slow down the Offense for long enough to allow Josh Allen to make some late plays to help the Bills win this one at home.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts + 1 Point @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
New England Patriots + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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