We are down to the last eight Singles players in the final Grand Slam of the 2023 season and it feels like this is a tournament that any of those players can win.
Conditions at the US Open have been brutal over the last few days and it looks like they will go right through to the weekend, which means it has become a battle of fitness as much as having the quality of tennis to earn wins.
That was notable in Daniil Medvedev's win over his good friend Andrey Rublev as both wilted in the unbelievable heat and humidity at Flushing Meadows- it is certainly going to raise a talking point going forward whether players should have to play in such abnormal conditions or whether these big tournaments should use the tools available to them, eg the roof on the main courts in this case, and try and get the temperature regulated to a better level for spectators and performers.
It is not the straight-forward answer some think- personally I love watching players deal with wind and factors that go beyond their tennis, although it also should be noted that this week has been exceptionally hot and perhaps a limit has to be placed on how hot it can be like they do at the Australian Open with the 'heat rule'.
On Thursday we move into the two Women's Semi Finals and it means a late start for the Singles players with both played in the Night Session on Arthur Ashe.
That may be good news with the hottest part of the day out of the way, but humidity is going to be an issue and it has remained very warm through the evening.
After a sweep of the Day 10 Picks, the selections for the week are edging back closer to the black after a really poor Week 1 at the tournament.
Finishing with even a slight profit will be difficult without a perfect end to the US Open, but avoiding huge losses will still feel like a win after the position the Picks were in earlier in the second week.
Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova over 21.5 games: These two players met in the Final of the big event in Cincinnati and it was won by Coco Gauff for the biggest title of her career. The American is looking to surpass that achievement by winning her first ever Grand Slam title, although Karolina Muchova is an extremely experienced and motivated player having reached the French Open Final in June and only just coming up short against Iga Swiatek.
You cannot ignore what happened in Cincinnati when they faced off, but it would be wrong to completely dismiss the runs the two players had to that Final.
Coco Gauff had been comfortable before an epic Semi Final win over Iga Swiatek, but she had still spent a lot less time on the court compared with Karolina Muchova who had needed almost two plus hours and all three sets to win her four completed matches to earn her place opposite Gauff with the title on the line.
This time Karolina Muchova is arguably the fresher of the two players having made serene progress into the Semi Final with a single set dropped. Compared to that, Coco Gauff has needed three sets three times already, although the dismissal of Jelena Ostapenko for the loss of just two games in the Quarter Final came at a very good time.
The serving numbers of the two players have been decent, but it is the return from where both Gauff and Muchova have been most effective.
It was the case in the Cincinnati Final as the two players combined for eight breaks of serve with Coco Gauff earning the five-three edge on the day. Both struggled win consistently behind serve, but you have to believe they will have a bit more coming out of that shot in this Semi Final with the two players likely to be fresher than they were for the last meeting.
Picking a winner is not easy- Coco Gauff has a 7-5 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts this season, while Karolina Muchova is 5-5 in those matches and with a narrow edge on the overall numbers. Even through the run to the Semi Final, the Czech player has perhaps been a little more consistent than Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova has to be confident she can turn around the result that was set in Cincinnati.
Stronger serving should help both players, but they will also be well aware of the quality that will be coming from the other side of the net.
Whoever falls behind in the match will know there is a mountain to climb, but you do have to respect the fact that Karolina Muchova has been able to work out problems on the court throughout this year. She has pushed top 20 opponents into a final set decider in seven of the ten matches played against those players on the hard courts and Muchova should be much more ready to compete with Coco Gauff compared with the last time they faced off.
Coco Gauff will have the home crowd behind her, but has had one or two nervy moments in this tournament already. There is a lot of expectation on her shoulders to reach the US Open Final as soon as Iga Swiatek exited the tournament and Karolina Muchova is expected to make things much more awkward than Jelena Ostapenko, who is temperamental and liable to making a huge amount of errors like we saw in the Quarter Final.
Nerves will be an issue and this is a match that may need all three sets to find a winner, although two competitive sets might be enough to cover the total games line.
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: These two players met at Wimbledon in the Quarter Final Round and now meet again at the next Grand Slam, although this time for a place in the US Open Final.
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys may feel their very best tennis is played on the hard courts, but there is no doubt that the new World Number 1 has an edge having dismissed the Keys challenge as effectively as she did in SW19.
In reality, Aryna Sabalenka is the deserving favourite having played some strong tennis in her five wins in New York City and she has looked every bit the World Number 1 she is set to become. Of course, the Belarusian player would love to do that having put a second Grand Slam title in the trophy cabinet after winning the Australian Open back in January, but there are still a couple of mental demons that will need exorcising on Thursday evening.
Aryna Sabalenka has now reached the Semi Final in seven of the last nine Grand Slams she has played, but it cannot be ignored that five of the six matches played have ended in defeat. That includes at the French Open and Wimbledon since breaking through the Semi Final Round and winning the Australian Open so there are still one or two issues that need to be sorted out, the majority of which are going to do with handling the pressurised situations.
Despite her strong tennis and her successes, you cannot ignore how those Semi Final defeats have played out.
In 2021 Aryna Sabalenka was a set up at Wimbledon before losing that Semi Final, while later in the same year she came from a set down and then lost the decider at the US Open Semi Final against Leylah Fernandez.
In 2022 she took the first set in the Semi Final against eventual winner Iga Swiatek, but lost that US Open Semi Final.
Earlier this year Aryna Sabalenka came through a tight first set to beat Magda Linette in straight sets in the Semi Final in Melbourne, but she led by a break twice and served for the match in an eventual deciding set loss to Karolina Muchova at the French Open. A similar thing happened at Wimbledon where Sabalenka was a set and a break up against Ons Jabeur before losing yet another deciding set.
All of this cannot be ignored and it would be a surprise if this match does not get tight at some point considering how big Madison Keys has been hitting the ball. However, the American has not been nearly as convincing through her run at Flushing Meadows and was perhaps fortunate to get through her Quarter Final in straight sets, while that loss at Wimbledon to Aryna Sabalenka will be something that Madison Keys will have to try and forget.
On that day it was the Sabalenka serve that dominated the match and Madison Keys felt under pressure on her shot, which eventually broke down.
Madison Keys might not have the same mental scars from Semi Final losses as Aryna Sabalenka, but mainly because the latter's have all come in a relatively short period across the last two years. It should be remembered that Keys has played five Grand Slam Semi Final matches of her own and has only won one of those back in 2017 when she was eventually beaten in the US Open Final by compatriot Sloane Stephens.
In her last Semi Final appearance at a Grand Slam in Australia in 2022, Madison Keys was swatted aside by the then best player in the world in Ashleigh Barty.
While it can be difficult to be completely convinced by Aryna Sabalenka, the feeling is that she is serving at a higher level than Madison Keys and that is going to make a big difference in the outcome of this match. The expectation is that she can expose the Keys return game, and that should lead to what could be another strong win for Aryna Sabalenka against her American opponent at consecutive Grand Slam events.
If it gets tight, Sabalenka will have to prove to all that she is ready to become the dominant player on the Tour by pushing through, but the feeling is that she can use her serve to good effect and ultimately a place in the Saturday Final.
MY PICKS: Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 37-33, - 5.04 Units (140 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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