It has been a difficult opening week of the tournament for those making predictions, but there has been plenty of quality tennis being produced and that will excite the fans.
In the main the top names have survived and avoided the upsets and the business end of the final Grand Slam of the season should be interesting to watch.
Half of the Fourth Round was set on Friday on Day 5 at the tournament, but the remainder of the draw will be completed on Saturday in what is likely to be the last of the 'cooler' conditions in New York City.
Next week looks incredibly hot and it will be a physical and mental test for players as they bid to win a Grand Slam title and the feeling is that the heat will cause problems. We have already seen some illness and fatigue running through the players, but the heat can be brutal at the US Open and it has gotten the better of so many in the past.
Another busy day of action begins at 11am local time and there will be tennis played right through the day and evening with the top half of the men's draw and the bottom half of the women's draw due out on the courts.
Cameron Norrie - 5.5 games v Matteo Arnaldi: At times it was harder work than most would have expected, even when it looked like Cameron Norrie had taken control in his Second Round win. The positive is that the British player was able to move through in straight sets, but there are vulnerabilities there, which is no surprise considering the lack of real form that Cameron Norrie has displayed in the last couple of months on the Tour.
The draw has been kind and it has allowed Cameron Norrie to work his way into the US Open and he is once again a pretty significant favourite in this Third Round match.
Not many would have predicted Matteo Arnaldi would be opposing Cameron Norrie for a place in the second week of this Grand Slam tournament, but the young Italian would have also been pleased with the way the draw has shaped up. He still needed to earn an upset in the Second Round and Matteo Arnaldi needed almost four hours and five sets to get the better of Arthur Fils, the first top 50 win on the hard courts in 2023.
Daniil Medvedev has beaten Matteo Arnaldi twice on the surface this season and in routine fashion both times, but the Italian has saved his best work for the clay courts to the surprise of nobody. He is expected to move into a new career high World Ranking at the end of the US Open, so Matteo Arnaldi will play with confidence, but he has had average hard court numbers so far in his career and will likely need an 'off' day from Cameron Norrie.
That cannot be ruled out when you think of how Norrie has been playing since the beginning of Wimbledon, but the two wins in the tournament will have given the lefty a boost in confidence.
While it has been a pretty poor year all things considered for Cameron Norrie, he does look to be the player that will have the superior game on the hard courts in this match up. If he serves anywhere near the level he can produce, Norrie should keep Matteo Arnaldi under pressure for much of the contest and that can see him wear down an opponent who spent plenty of emotional and physical energy to move into the Third Round.
Six sets have been won without dropping one at the US Open and that will further enhance what has been fragile confidence and help Norrie to the victory and a cover of this line, which is perhaps one game lower than expected.
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Grigor Dimitrov: He may have spent almost an hour more on the court than his opponent in the Second Round, but that should not be a real factor in this big time Third Round match at the US Open.
Two players who will feel they should have won a Grand Slam already will meet with a place in the Fourth Round at stake and both Alexander Zverev and Grigor Dimitrov have to be largely happy with their performances on the hard courts of New York City.
Out of the two, Grigor Dimitrov clearly has the most impressive win when comfortably beating Andy Murray in the Second Round and that means he has won six sets in a row at the US Open. Of course you do have to point out the fact that Dimitrov found himself two sets down in the opening Round of the tournament before turning things around against Alex Molcan, but he has momentum behind him and will be confident enough having reached the Washington Semi Final in the preparation events for the final Grand Slam of the season.
While his chances of winning a Grand Slam have perhaps passed him by, the Bulgarian has put in some strong performances on the hard courts since 2021. However, it is hard to ignore the 8-12 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in that time and the Dimitrov numbers have taken a significant hit when it comes to the serve.
Ultimately he is going to have to serve well to beat Alexander Zverev, who needed four sets to beat compatriot Daniel Altmaier. He made things hard for himself by creating twenty-six Break Points in the course of the match and only converting six of those, but the overall performance was solid and Alexander Zverev will still feel his getting closer and closer to his best form.
He is a former US Open Runner Up, and probably still wonders how he did not win the title here, while Alexander Zverev continues to improve in the second half of the year.
The German will backed up by the mental advantage of having beaten Grigor Dimitrov in five of their previous six matches, including both played in 2023. The most recent of those saw Alexander Zverev crush Dimitrov for the loss of just four games in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago and this looks a tough match up for the lower Ranked player.
The performance against Andy Murray will be giving Grigor Dimitrov a huge boost in confidence, but playing like that against Alexander Zverev is a different challenge at this stage of their respective careers.
Alexander Zverev has won the last three hard court matches between these players and also beat Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets at the French Open- he might need four sets this time, but Zverev can progress and looks worth backing on the set handicap in this Third Round contest.
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: The fans love him and it is clear that Stan Wawrinka still enjoys competing, even if his chances of adding to his three Grand Slam titles are slim at best.
Playing on the big courts in the big matches will still be an ambition for Stan Wawrinka and he certainly should have one of those in front of him in this Third Round match. He has made relatively comfortable progress through the draw, which has been a kind one to the Swiss player, but this is a considerable step up from the likes of Yoshihito Nishioka and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
This time Stan Wawrinka is being faced up by a player who will genuinely believe he can win the US Open title in eight days time.
Some may be rooting for the repeat of the Wimbledon Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, but Jannik Sinner won the Canadian Masters and his own defeat to Djokovic at SW19 came in a much closer match than the scoreboard would indicate. The Italian is still a 'work in progress' when it comes to the grass courts, but he is comfortable on the hard courts and Jannik Sinner is making quiet, but efficient progress through the draw.
Seeds have been falling through the opening week of the tournament, but Jannik Sinner has won all six sets played at Flushing Meadows and has been dominating opponents. He will recognise that the veteran Wawrinka is a threat, but Jannik Sinner will not be intimidated by an opponent even if he is going to respect him.
That has been the case the last three times these two players have met on the Tour with Jannik Sinner winning all of those, including crushing Stan Wawrinka for the loss of five games in Indian Wells earlier this year. That came a few weeks after beating Wawrinka for the loss of four games on an indoor hard court, while Jannik Sinner also beat the Swiss player on the grass courts of Wimbledon last year.
Stan Wawrinka will hold onto the fact that he beat Sinner at the US Open in 2019, but the latter is so much improved in the last four years and has surpassed the level that current Stan can bring to the court.
Even that defeat here in 2019, Jannik Sinner will feel he was very competitive having created the majority of the Break Points in the match. The Italian has been very strong behind serve in the two hard court matches against Stan Wawrinka this year too, but has backed that up with aggressive returning having broken the Wawrinka serve in 57% of return games and forcing the former multiple Grand Slam Champion to win less than 50% of his service points played.
Putting it all together in a Grand Slam is the challenge for Jannik Sinner, but he has shown a tremendous temperament in his relatively young career and he should be overawed by the occasion. Once he deals with the fact that the crowd are going to be loud in favour of backing Stan Wawrinka, Jannik Sinner should be able to take control of the match and eventually pull away to cover this line.
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Sebastian Baez: Two very strong wins are on the board for Daniil Medvedev and the former US Open Champion is not at all bothered that fans and experts continue to talk about Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
In fact, the World Number 3 is pretty comfortable with his own level and admitted that the top two players in the Rankings are operating at a different level to most and it is up to the rest to try and bridge that gap, including himself. However, it was important to hear Daniil Medvedev speak about his love for the hard courts and he continues to show that he is deservingly amongst the favourites to win the title here.
Matches will get tougher compared with the two opponents he has beaten, but Sebastian Baez may not be able to offer the kind of resistance that some will be hoping for.
All credit has to be given to Sebastian Baez for winning the title in Winston Salem ahead of this tournament being played, but it does mean he has plenty of tennis in the legs already. It also should be noted that he won an event that the majority of the best players would have chosen to skip and Baez has beaten Borna Coric, who is out of sorts, and Felipe Meligeni Alves, who was forced to retire, in the first two matches in New York City.
Now he has a major step up in class against the former Champion and it cannot be ignored that Sebastian Baez had a 1-5 record on the hard courts before the tournament in Winston Salem, where he did have three top 50 wins.
Beating a top 20 player is a different test entirely, especially one like Daniil Medvedev who has a load of power and a big serve, but great movement and ability to make plenty of balls back in play. It could make it very difficult for Sebastian Baez to find a consistent way to win points in the match and certainly means Medvedev is more than a deserving favourite of this size on Day 6 at the tournament.
Sebastian Baez has lost all seven matches played on the hard courts in his career when facing top 20 Ranked opponents, but it should be noted that he pushed Stefanos Tsitsipas to four sets at the Australian Open and lost the first two sets to Carlos Alcaraz 7-5, 7-5 , 2-0 last year at the US Open before retiring from the match.
Since then, the Argentinian has played eight hard court sets against top 20 Ranked opponents and lost all of those sets. The scores have not made good reading (6-2, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 and 6-2) and Daniil Medvedev can wear down Sebastian Baez in this Third Round contest.
Jack Draper - 1.5 sets v Michael Mmoh: No one is doubting the kind of talent that Jack Draper has, but the biggest challenge for the British player will be keeping himself healthy.
He has missed considerable time on the Tour already this season, but Draper is very comfortable on the hard courts and has opened up his section of the draw with a win over Hubert Hurkacz. Doing so without dropping a set is a big achievement for Jack Draper and his serve was a huge weapon on the day.
Once again he will need to serve well, but this is also an opponent who is Ranked considerably lower than the one that Jack Draper has just beaten.
However, while Draper will see this as a winnable match, the same can be said for Michael Mmoh who is having a very good run at his home Grand Slam and will be hoping it leads to another new career high World Ranking mark. Michael Mmoh will have plenty of fans behind him, but he will have needed to have recovered from an emotional win over John Isner having ended the career of the long-time stand out American male player.
The match lasted just about four hours and a final set tie-breaker needed to be won, while Michael Mmoh has played his part in opening up the section having beaten injured Seed Karen Khachanov in the First Round.
The American is a decent, if unspectacular, hard court player, but will work hard and has to be respected.
Backing up an upset will be a challenge, and Michael Mmoh failed to do that at Wimbledon after beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and then losing in straight sets. That experience should help him deal with some of the emotions that had to be used to beat John Isner, while Jack Draper looks the more talented player and with a serve that can make the difference at those tight moments.
It was the case when Michael Mmoh and Jack Draper faced off on the hard courts in 2022 and the latter won 68% of points behind serve compared with Mmoh's 59% mark. One match is a very small sample, but over the course of the season, Draper's serve has proved to be a big weapon for him and the feeling is that the British player moves on in three or four sets.
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: A number of Quarter Final Rounds have been reached at Grand Slam level, but not many are expecting much more than that from Andrey Rublev at the US Open.
He has had a quiet build up and there are other names in the men's draw that will take the headlines, but Andrey Rublev has dropped a single set in two Rounds and has to be inspired by the way he saw off Gael Monfils in the Second Round.
Like many sections of the men's draw, this is one where Seeds have fallen all around Andrey Rublev and so he does have a good chance to build momentum to take into the second week of the tournament.
He will be a favourite in this Third Round match against Arthur Rinderknech, a player who had shown little hard court form this season to suggest this run was possible. He benefited from yet another injury suffered by Matteo Berrettini in the Second Round and this is going to be a much tougher match for the Frenchman.
Prior to the US Open, Rinderknech had a 5-4 record at Grand Slam events played in Australia or the United States and he had lost his sole top 50 match in the Slams against Daniil Medvedev.
The serve can be a big weapon when at his best, but an aggressive Andrey Rublev is likely going to have the majority of Break Points in the match. He looks comfortable playing without the pressures that top Seeds enter Grand Slam events with and Andrey Rublev benefits from the attention being given to Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
This will feel a big spread if Arthur Rinderknech comes out serving big, but over the course of the match you would have to expect Andrey Rublev to start grinding down this opponent and eventually break him down.
MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Qinwen Zhang - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 19-23, - 14.96 Units (84 Units Staked, - 17.81% Yield)
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