The Clemson Tigers suffered a second loss of the season and that likely means curtains for their chances of reaching the PlayOffs, even if we have yet to reach October. The Big Ten East Division looks loaded with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all looking strong, but they are likely to feast on one another which means only one of those three teams is likely going to be invited into the mix for the National Championship.
Teams like Oklahoma and Texas will want to finish their time in the Big 12 with a flourish, while the USC Trojans might be the best of a pretty good looking Pac-12 Conference.
And you have to consider the Georgia Bulldogs the favourites right now having a long unbeaten run behind them and with the rest of the SEC still playing catch up.
Things can change very quickly in the College Football ranks and the Buckeyes almost fell to an important loss in Week 4. A late Touchdown helped them overcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with just one second left in the Fourth Quarter, but the Fighting Irish fans will be sickened by the mistakes made by the Coaching Staff at the end of that game as they played Defense with one player short of the eleven allowed on the field.
It happened in back to back plays at the end of the game and that is absolutely on the Coaching staff- it is also a moment that many other teams around the College Football ranks will have felt regret on behalf of the Fighting Irish as a loss for the Buckeyes would have made it very difficult for Ohio State to potentially be considered as a PlayOff team without winning the Big Ten Championship.
Week 5 will really see the Conference games getting going and that likely means big changes in the Rankings in the weeks and months ahead. Right now the feeling is that the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines, Texas Longhorns and USC Trojans are leading the way for the final four positions to compete for the National Championship, but those teams have to negotiate a long and winding road filled with obstacles before we get into the December Bowl Games.
All of those teams, and plenty others, have to keep focused on a game by game basis and make sure they avoid the pitfalls that can await at every turn.
USC Trojans @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: You can never get too carried away about Rankings in September, but the Pac-12 Conference looks like it is going out with a bang in 2023.
Next year the Conference is going to have a very different feel, if it can survive the fact that only two schools are currently a part of the Pac-12 for 2024, but this looks to be a loaded one in 2023 and one that could potentially send two teams to the PlayOffs.
We are still a long way away from that outcome, but you also cannot ignore the fact that twelve teams are playing in the Pac-12 this season and five of them are unbeaten through the first month of the College Football regular season.
One of the teams that have fallen are the upstart Colorado Buffaloes (3-1) who had been unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the season before being thumped by the Oregon Ducks. Head Coach Deion Sanders won't be too downbeat about the loss, but he will also be looking for a reaction from his players, which will be challenging considering the USC Trojans (4-0) are coming to town.
The Trojans are lead by Caleb Williams, who many are tipping to be the Number 1 Overall Pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and he is the Quarter Back of a USC Offensive unit that is piling up the yards and points. They did need a big Fourth Quarter to avoid the upset when visiting the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 4, but the feeling is that the Trojans would have been circling this game at the Buffaloes considering the noise around a team being led by Coach Prime.
It may have served as a distraction for the Trojans, but ultimately they did win by 14 points on the road and remain unbeaten for the season. There are some tough opponents to negotiate between now and the end of the season for USC if they are going to make the PlayOffs, which has to be the aim, but it does feel they are going into Boulder at the right time.
A 36 point loss at Oregon will have just tempered some of the enthusiasm which has built up around the Buffaloes, especially as this is very early into the project for the new Head Coach and his team. They have overachieved by moving into a 3-0 position, and the headlines generated by the Buffaloes have certainly gotten under the skin of other Head Coaches.
It will likely mean more are trying to run up the score on the Buffaloes and this feels like a big opportunity for the USC Trojans to have a very big Offensive day. Travis Hunter is a huge loss for the Colorado Buffaloes, who could also be without Shilo Sanders in Week 5 and it makes it very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Caleb Williams and the USC Offense is not able to have a big day.
The Offensive Line is opening up some big lanes for the Running Backs, and this Colorado Defensive Line is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, while the absence of Hunter and potentially Shilo Sanders is going to leave the Secondary vulnerable. The Buffaloes are already allowing almost 270 passing yards per game and Caleb Williams is likely to be given ample time to surpass that average in this game.
USC are averaging 55 points per game so the challenge for the Buffaloes is going to be trying to match them on the other side of the ball. Shedeur Sanders is the Quarter Back of the team and has some Draft talk around him, but Coach Prime is adamant that his son will not be heading to the NFL at the end of this season and instead should follow the Caleb Williams route of earning a bit more experience before perhaps moving up into the pros as the top Draft Pick.
As good as Shedeur Sanders has looked, he has been impacted by the absence of Travis Hunter, a two way player, and the fact he is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line. That Colorado Offensive Line has really struggled to do much in the run game all season and are unlikely to get much change out of this USC Defensive Line, but they have also struggled mightily in pass protection and that has led to way too many hits on Sanders at Quarter Back.
Seven Sacks were taken against the Oregon Ducks in the loss in Week 4 and the Trojans have a fierce pass rush which is only going to be emboldened if they are getting the Buffaloes into third and long situations. Shedeur Sanders will have some successes, but he is going to face plenty of pressure all day and it could be another tough day in the office for the Colorado Buffaloes, even if they have two more wins in 2023 than they managed in the whole of 2022.
In November 2022, the USC Trojans blew out the Colorado Buffaloes by 38 points at home, while the previous year they won by 23 points here in Boulder.
Lincoln Riley knows this will be a tough game for the Trojans, but they look to have a clear edge on both sides of the ball and USC can put a statement win on the board in this road game, which will have plenty of eyes tuning in.
Clemson Tigers @ Syracuse Orange Pick: It has felt like there was very little room for error for the Clemson Tigers (2-2) since the opening week upset to the Duke Blue Devils. Losing to the Florida State Seminoles in Week 4 will have really hurt considering the statistical edge that the Tigers had in that game and it has dropped Clemson to 0-2 within the Conference leaving them with a long road back to even make the Championship Game, never mind the PlayOff.
Losses to the Seminoles and Blue Devils makes it that much more difficult for the Clemson Tigers and they are facing another unbeaten Conference opponent in Week 5 of the season.
This time it is the Syracuse Orange (4-0), who have benefited from a largely weak schedule to open the season. Head Coach Dino Babers will be reminding his team that while the Clemson Tigers are 2-2, this is clearly the toughest test that Syracuse will have faced this year ahead of big games against the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.
Winning will certainly give the Orange confidence to take into those games, but they will have to be better than what we have seen this season if they are going to beat a team as good as the Clemson Tigers. The latter certainly have a Defensive unit that is capable of shutting down Syracuse and the game is likely to be decided in the trenches on this side of the ball.
While the Syracuse Offensive Line have helped the team rip off some big gains on the ground, the Clemson Tigers Defensive Line has been very good at clamping down on the run all season. This is going to be strength versus strength on this side of the ball, but the Tigers have been improving this season and the feeling is that they can win out and force Syracuse to beat them through the air.
Garrett Shrader has not played badly at Quarter Back, but you do have to consider the level of competition and this time he is playing a decent Clemson Secondary. He certainly should have some time to make his plays, although the Offensive Line might have to hold off the pass rush longer than usual if Clemson are able to lock down on the run and force the Orange to operate from third and long.
Avoiding third and long will be the key for the Clemson Tigers too as they look to impose their will in the trenches on the Offensive side of the ball. The early season form of the Syracuse Defensive Line has been strong, but you cannot ignore the level of competition and this Clemson Offensive Line has shown it can bully opponents up front.
Cade Klubnik is showing that he can be very good at this level having thrown almost 300 yards with a passing Touchdown in the loss to the Florida State Seminoles. Fumbles were an issue for the Quarter Back in that defeat, but he looks like someone who will improve as this season goes on.
The Offensive Line has given Cade Klubnik time to make his plays and the numbers have followed. It has been a good start for the Syracuse Orange Secondary, but Klubnik will feel his Offensive team-mates have the edge over the Defenders and that could show up in this game.
Clemson might have a strong winning run to protect against the Orange, but the last couple of wins have been by a combined 9 points.
It does raise some doubt about the Tigers covering this spread mark, especially if Clemson are still trying to pick themselves up emotionally from the defeat to the Florida State Seminoles. The upcoming game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons is unlikely to be a distraction though and Syracuse may struggle to cope with the expectation of being unbeaten ahead of facing a tough Conference rival.
Nothing will come easy in this game, but the Clemson Tigers might do enough to win by a Touchdown to overcome the spread set.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Being successful in the College Football ranks means a high turnover of personnel from season to season as players choose to move onto the NFL.
That is the case for the Georgia Bulldogs (4-0), but the defending Champions are creating a dynasty around Athens and they have made another strong start to the season. Not many would be betting on the Bulldogs missing the College Football PlayOff, but Head Coach Kirby Smart will be keen to remind his players that tough tests are around every corner in the SEC.
The tough, tight win over the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 3 will have just been an eye opener for the players and the Bulldogs will also know that every road game in the Conference will be challenging. This week they are facing the Auburn Tigers (3-1) who were dominated in their own opening SEC game against the Texas A&M Aggies last week as the Tigers ended up on the wrong side of a blowout loss.
It really doesn't help Auburn's cause that they are still not sure who should be the starting Quarter Back- last week they used three different players in that position. None of those players impressed enough to believe they have taken control of the Quarter Back position, but it does sound like Payton Thorne will begin this game.
No matter who gets the call, facing the Georgia Defensive unit is going to be a daunting task for Auburn's Quarter Back.
We have yet to see the Bulldogs get into the kind of form that would take them to a National Championship again, but they do match up pretty well with the Tigers. While the Auburn Offensive Line will want to control the clock by establishing the run, which also eases the pressure on Thorne at Quarter Back, the Georgia Defensive Line have been stout up front.
They have lost some key players on the Line who made big contributions as pass rushers last season and Georgia have yet to generate the same pressure up front, but this is a Secondary that has played the pass very well. If they can at least clamp down on the run up front, the Bulldogs will believe they can force a mistake or two from Payton Thorne and ultimately move into a position to set up short fields for their own Offensive unit.
It is important for Georgia as they continue to improve under the guidance of Carson Beck at Quarter Back having taken over as the starter. He played some snaps in the National Championship Game last season, and Beck has some strong passing numbers to start this year's push to win it all.
The whole Offensive unit had some difficult moments in the win over the South Carolina Gamecocks, but Carson Beck may be facing a weaker Defensive unit in this one. For starters the Quarter Back is likely to get some solid support from his Offensive Line as they grade the road for some big running plays and that should mean Carson Beck is playing in front of the chains.
Last week the Tigers could not contain the Texas A&M running attack and still gave up almost 200 passing yards in the contest. This could be an issue for the home team again in Week 5 and the defending Champions may end up cruising past Auburn, even on the road.
A big game against the Kentucky Wildcats is next on deck for the defending Champions, but they are still likely to put plenty of stock into beating Auburn. The Bulldogs have dominated Auburn in recent games between the schools and the last three wins have been in dominant fashion, something Georgia can do again in Week 5 of the 2023 season.
Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Any slip in the Big Ten East is likely going to be costly for the top teams and last week the Ohio State Buckeyes got themselves out of a very difficult jam in winning at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
That might have focused their main rivals in the Conference, who happen to be in the same Division, and both the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines (4-0) are big road favourites in Week 5.
Out of the two, the Michigan Wolverines are perhaps in a better position to cover, even if they are facing a Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-2) team that has won two in a row. Both of those wins have been in non-Conference games and the Cornhuskers remain a work in progress having already lost to Minnesota Golden Gophers in Big Ten play.
Jeff Sims missed out again at Quarter Back for the Cornhuskers and has missed both victories, and there is little doubt that this is going to be a much sterner test for Heinrich Haarberg. You have to expect the latter will get another opportunity having led the Cornhuskers to a couple of wins, but all of the pressure is going to feel like being on Haarberg's shoulders.
While the Cornhuskers Offensive Line have opened up some big running lanes this season, they have not faced a team like the Michigan Defensive unit. Through the four wins on the board, the Wolverines have dominated on this side of the ball and holding teams to fewer than 6 points on average, while shutting down the run and making it very difficult for Quarter Backs to find holes in the Secondary.
These are all factors that are likely to show up on Saturday and it will give the Michigan Wolverines an opportunity to cover.
However, there is a feeling that they need to find a bit more from the Offense if the Wolverines are going to be called up to compete in the College Football PlayOff again.
The Wolverines Offensive Line will be tested in the run game more than they have for much of the season and that will mean the best Michigan player, Blake Corum, could be limited. There is not a team out there that you would expect to completely contain Corum, but the Cornhuskers may feel they can get enough of a push up front to prevent the Running Back from dominating and also putting pressure on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.
JJ McCarthy does not have bad numbers with almost 1000 passing yards already under his belt this season with an 8-3 Touchdown-Interception ratio. He will be throwing into a Nebraska Secondary that has had issues when attacked through the air and McCarthy is likely to be well protected when he does step back to throw as Nebraska perhaps focus on closing down the run.
Despite the record and the positives around Michigan, the team are averaging just shy of 32 points per game so there is room for improvement Offensively. We may not see it all this week, but the Defensive unit are capable of doing enough to just keep the foot down on Nebraska and help Michigan cover here.
MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 16 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Maryland Terrapins - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)
Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)
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