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NBA PlayOffs 2024- Conference Semi Final Picks Game 1-4 (May 4-13)

There are two Game 6's to be played on Friday 3rd May, but two of the Conference Semi Finals have been set without needing a decider and...

Tuesday 5 September 2023

US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2023 (September 6th)

Half of the four Semi Final matches will have been set late on Tuesday evening at the US Open, but the other two matches are going to be set on Wednesday on Day 10 of the tournament.

All of the remaining matches will be played on Arthur Ashe over the coming days and there are some extremely hot conditions to get through before rainy conditions are expected on Saturday for the Women's Final.

That means it is going to be just as challenging for players to deal with the conditions as it is with facing the opponent on the other side of the net and the four Quarter Final matches could all become very interesting to watch.


Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: We have yet to see the best of the defending Champion at the US Open, but the fact of the matter is that Carlos Alcaraz has made relatively serene progress in the draw.

He will be expecting the competition to get tougher in the final few days of the last Grand Slam of the 2023 season, but Carlos Alcaraz definitely will believe that he can outlast this Quarter Final opponent if necessary.

Alexander Zverev spoke of the 'disrespect' he may have felt that the media and fans were speaking about a Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Final before a ball had been hit at the US Open, and he has already mentioned that he has stopped one 'dream' match when eliminating Jannik Sinner in the Fourth Round.

After the match played here between Alcaraz and Sinner last season, some were hoping for a repeat in the Quarter Final and now Alexander Zverev takes aim at stopping the Final that most fans 'want' to see on Sunday.

He is playing well and continues to show signs that he is returning to the form that had pushed him into World Number 2 in June 2022 when an injury at the US Open cost the German the remainder of the season. A slow start to 2023 was a concern as he rebuilt match fitness, but the French Open has sparked an upturn in results and level of performance and Alexander Zverev will most certainly be targeting a spot in the World Tour Finals to conclude the year.

However, Alexander Zverev has just finished a match that lasted close to five hours and that follows two consecutive matches that lasted almost four hours each. He looked tired at times in the fourth and fifth set against Jannik Sinner and one day of rest may not be enough for Zverev to bring his best tennis that is going to be needed to knock off the top Seed in this Quarter Final.

If there is any letdown physically, Carlos Alcaraz is going to be able to take advantage and it is going to be very tough for Alexander Zverev to be competitive.

He did upset Alcaraz at the French Open in 2022 when beating him in the Quarter Final, but he would have entered that match up with a lot more energy than Alexander Zverev is likely going to bring to the court on Wednesday.

You have to respect how well Alexander Zverev played in reaching the Cincinnati Masters Semi Final, and he has been serving well at this tournament. The concern is that if fatigue builds up again, Zverev may struggle to deal with the energy that Carlos Alcaraz will bring and it looks like a match that may end up going in the direction of the top Seed once he gets through the early pressure that Zverev will bring.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Andrey Rublev: Two very good friends meet in the Quarter Final at the US Open and it is a big match for Andrey Rublev who has lost all eight matches played at Grand Slam level in this Round.

Breaking through and reaching the Semi Final of a Grand Slam could see Andrey Rublev take the next step in what has been a solid career already, but he will have to control his emotions. In the Fourth Round win over Jack Draper, Rublev certainly allowed those to get the better of him as he dropped the second set and fell a break down early in the third, but he was able to rally and beat the talented youngster, who also saw his body break down as the match developed.

It is unlikely that Andrey Rublev will benefit from Daniil Medvedev falling away in this Quarter Final after the World Number 3 rallied from a set down to break down and eventually crush Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round.

There were some early signs that Daniil Medvedev was not feeling completely himself- he had to see a doctor at the end of the first set and admitted he had taken something to help himself earlier in the day, but by the end of the match Medvedev was cruising through.

Daniil Medvedev does not shy away from the fact that he feels his best tennis is played on the hard courts and so there will have been a little bit of disappointment with his results in Canada and Cincinnati in the warm up events. He has looked stronger in the US Open, and it is very hard to ignore the fact that the last three wins have all been against players Ranked higher than the highest Ranked player that Andrey Rublev has beaten.

Unsurprisingly, Andrey Rublev has some solid numbers behind in his four wins, but none of the opponents have been Ranked higher than World Number 73 and even then Rublev has dropped a set in each of his last three wins.

Now he has to step up against an opponent who has won six of their last eight matches- Andrey Rublev had won two in a row to snap his five match losing run to his friend, but Daniil Medvedev crushed him for the loss of just four games in Dubai to win the title there earlier this year.

In those previous matches, Daniil Medvedev has a significant edge when it comes to the serving numbers compared with Andrey Rublev.

Those edges have been clear in the two previous Grand Slam meetings between the players- Daniil Medvedev has beaten Andrey Rublev in straight sets at the US Open in 2020 and Australian Open in 2021, both in Quarter Final matches, and you have to believe the higher Ranked player will have the edge in this match as long as he is over whatever was ailing him on Monday.

Andrey Rublev deserves respect, but he is yet to show that he really believes he belongs alongside the very elite on the Tour. And when you lack that belief, it is in these big matches where it really shines through with the feeling being that it will be a case of more of the same in this Quarter Final with Daniil Medvedev fancied to win this one in three or four sets.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: A former US Open Finalist, Madison Keys might feel her experience served her in good stead in her comfortable win over Jessica Pegula in the Fourth Round. However, this time Keys is going up against the last Grand Slam winner on the WTA Tour and so it is unlikely that Marketa Vondrousova is going to be overawed by the occasion.

After winning Wimbledon, Marketa Vondrousova might have been expected to have some difficulties that have been the issue for other first time Grand Slam winners in recent years on the Tour. A new expectation around them and a target on the back from other players has contributed to the issues players have had in backing up Grand Slam successes, but Vondrousova performed well enough in Canada and Cincinnati and losing matches to Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek is not exactly poor form.

She had to battle in the Fourth Round to come from a set down to beat Peyton Stearns, but this is another step up in class and the big issues around Marketa Vondrousova is how her shoulder is holding up. The serve was a real struggle for her in the Fourth Round where she was broken four times by the American across the net, while the shoulder problem also meant Marketa Vondrousova had to withdraw from the Doubles to make sure she has enough rest to prepare for the Quarter Final.

Over the course of the year the Czech player has had decent hard court numbers and is perhaps under-rated on the surface, and Vondrousova had been in very good form in the opening three matches at the US Open before the issues in the Fourth Round. Marketa Vondrousova will still feel she can prepare with the day of rest between matches, but she will also be dealing with a hot crowd who will be looking to back their home player into the Semi Final.

Madison Keys did reach the Quarter Final in Washington, but two early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati meant she came into the US Open under the radar with the likes of Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff the leading American hopes. Crushing Pegula in the manner she did in the Fourth Round will certainly have just reminded the fans of the qualities Madison Keys has and the former top ten Ranked player is rounding into strong form after a good run at Wimbledon a couple of months ago.

There is no doubt that this match is going to come down to the battle between the Madison Keys serve and the Marketa Vondrousova return- in this tournament, Keys has won a very high percentage of service points and only been broken twice in four matches, but Vondrousova has broken every opponent faced at least five times.

Only one of those opponents were in the top 50 of the World Rankings though and Madison Keys is going to be plenty confident having beaten two top 15 Ranked players already.

No one is going to confuse Madison Keys with being a top return player and she can play over-aggressive which leads to errors, but the American has broken at least four times in three straight wins in the draw.

It is hard to rule out the upset, because Marketa Vondrousova has shown plenty of character and ability to fight through adversity, but Madison Keys can dictate the tempo of the match. She is a former Finalist in New York City, so should be able to handle the occasion, and the fans can push Keys through against a player that perhaps struggles to overcome shoulder problems.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: A new World Number 1 was crowned at this tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka may only really feel deserving if she is able to win the US Open now that main rivals Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek have exited the tournament.

Winning the Australian Open looked to be a breakthrough moment for Aryna Sabalenka, but at the French Open and Wimbledon the old issues came up again as she just failed to get over the line in matches at the business end of those events. In recent seasons Sabalenka has regularly reached the Quarter Final or Semi Final at Grand Slam events, but the losses from strong winning positions against Karolina Muchova and Ons Jabeur will have really stung.

A run to the Semi Final at Cincinnati before another loss to Muchova will have given Aryna Sabalenka confidence and she is pushing for a third straight run to the US Open Semi Final.

At some stage Sabalenka is going to have to get through the nervy moments, but she has been dominant in her first four wins here and is a significant favourite to beat Qinwen Zheng in this Quarter Final.

Experience is certainly on the side of the Belarusian player, who is also a favourite of the crowd, but she will have to respect the 20 year old opponent who hits very big and is coming in after upsetting Ons Jabeur in the Fourth Round. Qinwen Zheng also took a set from Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati before falling apart, although she did not have the best record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the US Open.

Before the win over Jabeur, Qinwen Zheng had lost six of seven matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, but the serve is a big weapon and that is going to play a factor in the match.

The concern has to be that Zheng has not served as well as she would have hoped in this tournament and offering up looks at the second serve in this match will be very dangerous.

If she does serve well, it could be a tight match and a tough one for Aryna Sabalenka, but Qinwen Zheng could find it difficult to deal with the big serve coming the other way. It is extremely unlikely that Aryna Sabalenka will return as well as she has in three of the four matches at the US Open where she has won at least 60% of return points, but she has broken at least three times in all four matches and that is likely going to give the new World Number 1 the edge.

This has been a tournament of serene progress from Sabalenka, but she is never that far away from being dragged into a big match. There is every chance this could be one, but this is a Quarter Final in which Aryna Sabalenka should be fresher and ultimately stronger than Qinwen Zheng and that may see the Belarusian pull clear after a tough first set is in the bag.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 33-33, - 11.80 Units (132 Units Staked, - 8.94% Yield)

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